tom.stoer said:
It's about statistical hypothesis tests, levels of significance and all that.
That's exactly the hand-waving I mentioned.
I am not interested in precise numbers, but can you suggest an experimental test which can verify or disprove some hypothesis about the squared amplitudes of quantum-mechanical systems?
Here is what I would suggest:
Probabilistic interpretations:
Find a test that you can repeat as often as you like (like shooting photons with a specific polarization at a polarizer, rotated by some specific angle). For each photon, detect if it passed the polarizer. Let's assume this detection is 100% efficient and has no background.
Let's test the hypothesis "the squared amplitude* of the wave going through is 10% of the initial squared amplitude". I will call this hypothesis A. In probabilistic interpretations, this translates to "as expectation value, 10% of the photons pass through" via an additional axiom.
I will call this event X, and the opposite event Y.
*and let's ignore mathematical details, it should be clear how this is meant
We decide to test 100,000 photons. If every photon has a 10% probability for x and all photons are independent, we expect 10,000 the result "x", with a standard deviation of (roughly) 100. This is standard probability theory, nothing physical so far.
To distinguish our hypothesis from other hypotheses (like "20% probability of x" - hypothesis B), we look for measurement results which are in agreement with A, but not with B or a large class of other possible hypotheses.
A natural choice is "we see agreement with hypothesis A if we see x between 9800 and 10200 times".
Mathematics tells us that with hypothesis A, we should see agreement with a probability of ~95%, while with hypothesis B, the probability is basically 0.
We can perform the test. If we get a result between 9800 and 10200 we are happy that hypothesis A passed the test and that we could reject hypothesis B and many others.
There are hypotheses we could not reject with that test. Consider hypothesis C: The number of x-events will be even with 95% probability. Can we test this? Sure. Make another test with "we see agreement with hypothesis C if the number of x is even". If we get 10044, we do not reject C, if we get 10037, we do.
Actually, it is completely arbitrary which events we consider as "passing the test" versus "failing", as long as the sum of probabilities of all events in the class "passing the test" is some reasonably large number (like 95% or whatever you like).
To test more and more hypotheses with increasing precision, we can perform multiple experiments, which is basically the same as one larger experiment.
The result?
A true hypothesis will most likely (->as determined by the probabilities of the true hypothesis) pass the tests, while a wrong hypothesis will most likely (->as determined by the probabilities of the true hypothesis) fail.
Most possible results will reject the true hypothesis. Consider the first test, for example: Only a fraction of ~10
-16000 of all possible results will pass the test. Even the most probable single result (no x at all) is part of the "reject the test" fraction of the possible measurements.
This small fraction of measurements passing the test is not fixed and depends on the test design, but for large tests it is always extremely small.
How can we "hope" that we hit one of those few events (in order to confirm the correct hypothesis? Well, we cannot. We just know that they get a large amplitude, and call this a large "probability". The "probability" to accept the true hypothesis and reject as many others as possible can go towards 1.
--> We cannot get physics right with certainty, we cannot even get it right with most possible measurement results, but we can get it right with a high probability (like "1-epsilon").
MWI
The QM formalism stays the same, and we can make hypotheses about amplitude.
We can define and perform the same tests as above. Again, most results will reject the true hypothesis - the true hypothesis will get rejected in most branches. But at the same time, most of the measure (we can let this fraction go towards 1 for many tests) will see passed tests for the true hypothesis only.
--> We cannot get physics right in all branches, we cannot even get it right with most branches, but we can get it right within branches with a large measure (like "1-epsilon").
That's all I want to get from tests.