Calculating Average Value of Damage w/ 30% Crit Chance

In summary, to calculate the average value of damage with a 30% chance of a critical hit and a crit doing 150% damage, use the expected value of the damage roll times 0.3*1.5+0.7*1.0. This is a weighted average taking into account the crit rate and damage amount. The binomial distribution may be relevant due to the fixed probability of success and number of trials. Please avoid using the fact that the crit damage is based on a random number in the calculation.
  • #1
benorin
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How do I calculate the average value of some damage values where there is say a 30% chance of critical hit and on a crit 150% damage is done? I run into this problem often, if I had to guess I'd say it's likely related to the binomial distribution because there's either a crit or not, fixed probability of success, and presumably a fixed number of trials. I should mention that what value a crit does 150% of is based on a fixed number ##\theta D## where ##\theta\in\left\{ .88, 1.12\right\}## is a random number but please try not to use that fact in the calulation if at all possible I'd like it in general terms please. Thanks!
 
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  • #2
It is the expected value of the damage roll times 0.3*1.5+0.7*1.0
 
  • #3
So 0.3 from the crit rate, 1.5 from the 150% dmg, I'm assuming the 0.7=1-0.3 and 1.0 for normal or 100% dmg, correct?
 
  • #4
benorin said:
So 0.3 from the crit rate, 1.5 from the 150% dmg, I'm assuming the 0.7=1-0.3 and 1.0 for normal or 100% dmg, correct?
Yes, it is a weighted average.
 

1. How do you calculate the average value of damage with a 30% crit chance?

To calculate the average value of damage with a 30% crit chance, you can use the following formula: Average Damage = (Base Damage x (1 - Crit Chance)) + (Base Damage x Crit Chance x Crit Damage)

Where Crit Chance is the percentage chance of a critical hit occurring, and Crit Damage is the percentage increase in damage for a critical hit.

2. What is the significance of a 30% crit chance in this calculation?

A 30% crit chance means that for every 100 attacks, 30 of them will be critical hits. This percentage is used in the formula to determine the likelihood of a critical hit occurring and its impact on the average damage.

3. Can this calculation be applied to any type of damage, such as physical or magical?

Yes, this calculation can be applied to any type of damage as long as there is a probability of a critical hit occurring and a set percentage increase in damage for a critical hit.

4. Are there any other factors that should be considered when calculating the average value of damage with a 30% crit chance?

Yes, other factors such as damage modifiers, damage reduction, and enemy resistances should also be taken into account to get a more accurate average value of damage.

5. Is the average value of damage with a 30% crit chance a reliable measure of overall damage output?

While it can give an estimate of average damage, it should not be the only measure of overall damage output. Other factors such as attack speed, critical strike damage, and enemy defenses should also be considered for a more comprehensive evaluation.

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