News Another obstacle to Iran attack is removed

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Admiral William Fallon has resigned as the top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, reportedly due to his opposition to the Bush administration's aggressive stance on Iran. While his resignation is described as voluntary, it raises concerns about Middle Eastern stability, especially given his previous resistance to military action against Iran. Fallon had publicly stated that he would not support military strikes during his tenure, indicating a significant rift with the administration. His departure may signal increased pressure within the government to pursue a more confrontational approach toward Iran. The implications of his resignation suggest a troubling shift in U.S. military policy and strategy in the region.
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Admiral Fallon is resigning. It is supposedly voluntary, and doesn't signal a change in policy toward Iran, but since his resistance to mounting attacks on Iran is the main sticking point between him and the administration, this does not bode well for ME stability. It's often the case that the denied reasons for high-level resignations are exactly the reasons. Once he has resigned, I hope he gets really vocal about his experiences.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080311/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/fallon_resigns;_ylt=Ai.L00FE121gstImECd_niys0NUE
 
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Can anyone find a quote (even from the linked article) that Fallon was actually opposed to Bush's Iran policy? I think turbo-1 glossed over the finer details (which are very relevant) and drew a premature conclusion.
"I don't believe there have ever been any differences about the objectives of our policy in the Central Command area of responsibility," Fallon said, and he regretted "the simple perception that there is."
 
In government generally an official quote claiming there is no difference between two people is generally regarded as proof that they are at each others throats!
 
Fallon was the subject of an article published last week in Esquire magazine that portrayed him as at odds with a president eager to go to war with Iran. Titled "The Man Between War and Peace," it described Fallon as a lone voice against taking military action to stop the Iranian nuclear program.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080311/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/fallon_resigns;_ylt=AnN3VvpbF8rihCh795VHBe.s0NUE

When Bush and Cheney floated the idea of attacking Iran, Fallon said "Not on my watch." You can parse that any way you want, but I'm taking him at his word. Now, the upcoming (I really hope NOT) attacks on Iran won't be on his watch.
 
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Fallon, Top U.S. Commander in Mideast, Resigns
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88116189
by Tom Bowman
All Things Considered, March 11, 2008 · The top U.S. military commander for the Middle East has resigned. Adm. William Fallon reportedly has differed with the Bush administration on Iran policy. Fallon, in a statement, suggested that there were not differences but that the "perception" of differences made it hard for him to do his job as head of Central Command.
He apparently did make a statement along the lines that the US ought not to press for military action in Iran and should make an effort to prevent war. He's right of course.
 
http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39235

He demonstrated his independence from the White House when he refused in February to go along with a proposal to send a third naval carrier task force to the Persian Gulf, as reported by IPS in May. Fallon questioned the military necessity for the move, which would have signaled to Iran a readiness to go to war. Fallon also privately vowed that there would be no war against Iran on his watch, implying that he would quit rather than accept such a policy.
 
I agree with not having 3 carriers in the Gulf, but I don't think the issue has anything to do with Iran: we're down to 10 active carriers. It just isn't practical to have 3 in the same place at once.

IIRC, though, when we had 3 all they did was overlap the tours by a month.
 
The US is unlikely to attack Iran, I should know Bush told me.

Seriously though, I just can't see any sort of attack happening atm, they just haven't got a reason to, and I don't think it would be particularly popular either. You really can't attack someone just because you don't like them, you need a bit more than that. It's not playground time.
 
  • #10
The Bush administration has shown that it does not need a reason to launch a military offensive against another country. In the case of Iraq, they made up their "reasons" to mollify Congress, and then questioned the patriotism of anyone who disagreed with the war. Even now, suggestions for setting guidelines to wind down the Iraq occupation and disengage are derided by Bush and Cheney as "surrender". Given the recklessness that this administration has demonstrated in foreign affairs, and their inability to see anything other than military "solutions" for the problems we face, Fallon's resignation is very troubling. The most likely scenario is that he was under increasing pressure to launch carrier-based air strikes against Iran, and that he has resigned rather than comply. Guys like Fallon don't walk away from a life of military service just because they want to help an administration save face or reduce the appearance of internal conflict. He was forced out.
 
  • #11
Turbo's article, http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39235, illustrates the real reason Fallon is resigning. He lost his battle over the surge to a subordinate (and one he particularly dislikes):

In sharp contrast to the lionisation of Gen. David Petraeus by members of the U.S. Congress during his testimony this week, Petraeus's superior, Admiral William Fallon, chief of the Central Command (CENTCOM), derided Petraeus as a sycophant during their first meeting in Baghdad last March, according to Pentagon sources familiar with reports of the meeting.

Fallon told Petraeus that he considered him to be "an ass-kissing little chicken****" and added, "I hate people like that", the sources say. That remark reportedly came after Petraeus began the meeting by making remarks that Fallon interpreted as trying to ingratiate himself with a superior.

An opposing view on Fallon is provided by http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-boot12mar12,0,3473735.story .

This is not, however, a strategy that Fallon favored. Not only was Fallon "quietly opposed to a long-term surge in Iraq," as Barnett notes, but he doesn't seem to have changed his mind in the past year. He has tried to undermine the surge by pushing for faster troop drawdowns than Petraeus thought prudent. ("He wants troop levels in Iraq down now.") The president wisely deferred to the man on the spot -- Petraeus -- thus no doubt leaving Fallon simmering with the sort of anger that came through all too clearly in Esquire.

Like a lot of smart guys (or, at any rate, guys who think they're smart), Fallon seems to have outsmarted himself. He thinks the war in Iraq is a distraction from formulating "a comprehensive strategy for the Middle East," according to the profile. The reality is that the only strategy worth a dinar is to win the war in Iraq. If we fail there, all other objectives in the region will be much harder to attain; if we succeed, they will be much easier.

There's two things that affect Fallon's viewpoint on the surge:

1) The US military only has so many troops. Committing so many to Iraq means the US has less ability to respond to whatever may happen in Pakistan, less ability to take matters into their own hands along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and less ability to maintain some kind of status quo with Iran. Starting a new war in Iran would push military manning so far beyond its capabilities that our entire Middle East strategy would collapse. (Max Boot is wrong that "By irresponsibly taking the option of force off the table, Fallon makes it more likely, not less, that there will ultimately be an armed confrontation with Iran." Thinking Iran can't see how far the military is already stretched is assuming that Iran's leadership consists of morons.)

2) While Boot is right that success in Iraq will make other objectives in the region easier to obtain, he doesn't talk about the odds of succeeding. Historically, civil wars last for decades and are only resolved by one side wiping out the other. The actions of Iraq's government has shown very little reason to believe Iraq will wind up any different than other countries that have been torn by ethnic civil wars. Banking on success in Iraq is like planning to pay your bills as soon as you win the lottery - it might actually happen! But, it probably won't. A Middle East plan that accepts and accounts for an ongoing ethnic civil war in Iraq has a better chance for success than one that depends on success in Iraq. The reduction in violence as a result of the surge just delays development of a realistic plan for the entire Middle East region.

If the administration could point to some other ethnic civil war that was resolved by a peaceful sharing of power in a democratic government and point to how they were using lessons learned from that civil war to improve the chances of success in Iraq, their position would be more credible. The fact that they haven't is a pretty telling gap in their story.

As it is, there's good reason for Fallon (and others) to doubt the wisdom of making such a long shot roll of the die an absolutely critical piece of the overall US Middle East strategy.
 
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  • #12
The Bush administration undermined, even sabotaged, a victory in Iraq from day 1, particularly with Paul Bremer and CPA. Thousands of Iraqi civilians were killed by US forces, and that right there precluded victory. The US military and CPA subsequently to secure and stabilize the country and provide basic acceptable living standards/conditions to the civilian population.
 
  • #13
The 'not at all a civil war' in Northern Ireland has more or less resolved itself peacefully after either 350year / 90years / 30years of violence depending on how far you want to push history.

It had the classic setup - a peacekeeping force from a well equipped democratic military that was basically supporting one side, a set of 'insurgents/terrorsists/freedom fighters' that were being supported by another foreign government and a local elected government with no power.

Peace came about either because a new government in charge of the military force decided to play nicely with both sides, or the foot soldiers on the 'I/T/FF' side worked out thaty could just run the drugs and protection rackets and keep the money instead of donating it to the cause, or the leaders of each side realized that they were getting old and being legititmate politicians with a pension might be better than being targets for some up and coming new generation of I/T/FF in search of promotion.

Either way - good luck in Iraq for the next few generations!
 
  • #14
turbo-1 said:
The Bush administration has shown that it does not need a reason to launch a military offensive against another country. In the case of Iraq, they made up their "reasons" to mollify Congress, and then questioned the patriotism of anyone who disagreed with the war. Even now, suggestions for setting guidelines to wind down the Iraq occupation and disengage are derided by Bush and Cheney as "surrender". Given the recklessness that this administration has demonstrated in foreign affairs, and their inability to see anything other than military "solutions" for the problems we face, Fallon's resignation is very troubling. The most likely scenario is that he was under increasing pressure to launch carrier-based air strikes against Iran, and that he has resigned rather than comply. Guys like Fallon don't walk away from a life of military service just because they want to help an administration save face or reduce the appearance of internal conflict. He was forced out.

Oh I agree but I can't see him doing anything now, he just hasn't got enough support or time left. I don't even think Bush would be that stupid, although...
 
  • #15
Schrodinger's Dog said:
Oh I agree but I can't see him doing anything now, he just hasn't got enough support or time left. I don't even think Bush would be that stupid, although...
I don't have your confidence in his intelligence, nor his perceived "need" for support. He has proven over and over that given an opportunity to engage with countries with whom we have disagreements, he will use a real or threatened military attack to coerce them instead. It wouldn't take much of an "incident" - real, imagined, or fabricated - to trigger an air-war against Iran. Such a war would stop all gulf tanker traffic for the duration, giving Bush and Cheney's friends in the oil business huge windfall profits. If he attacks Iran, we in the US will be praying for $5/gal gas.

Adm. Fallon wanted to back down on the use of military force and forge regional alliances to help restore peace, so we could spend our military resources on extremist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. To Bush, the very notion of negotiating with Syria and Iran (who have very real security concerns regarding the situation in Iraq) is off-bounds. I hope Adm. Fallon writes a tell-all book about his last command - it would probably be a doozy!
 
  • #16
mgb_phys said:
The 'not at all a civil war' in Northern Ireland has more or less resolved itself peacefully after either 350year / 90years / 30years of violence depending on how far you want to push history.

It had the classic setup - a peacekeeping force from a well equipped democratic military that was basically supporting one side, a set of 'insurgents/terrorsists/freedom fighters' that were being supported by another foreign government and a local elected government with no power.

Peace came about either because a new government in charge of the military force decided to play nicely with both sides, or the foot soldiers on the 'I/T/FF' side worked out thaty could just run the drugs and protection rackets and keep the money instead of donating it to the cause, or the leaders of each side realized that they were getting old and being legititmate politicians with a pension might be better than being targets for some up and coming new generation of I/T/FF in search of promotion.

Either way - good luck in Iraq for the next few generations!

Generally, declaring ends to civil wars is a little like declaring a recession. They're done after the fact (about 5 years after the fact in the case of civil wars) to see if a given settlement really worked or was a mere lull in the violence. The 5 year time frame is purely arbitrary. Civil wars successfully resolved by peaceful power sharing include Lebanon and Sudan. In both those countries, it took around 10 years for a new civil war to break out.

None the less, the presumptive resolution of problems in Northern Ireland do provide a lesson on at least one way to resolve civil wars:

If there are lessons from counter-terrorism in Ulster, they seem to be this. Recruit very good spies; then hire some more. Then give it time to work. The murders, the long wait and the compromises of the exit strategy may well grind the moderates to dust. Then wait some more. After that, the politicians can make their entrance.

According to a few books discussed in the article, Who Really Brought Peace to Belfast, it took a civil servant bureaucracy and 30 years of infiltrating the IRA to finally bring peace.

There are a few other successes that appear more inspiring (South Africa for example), but the tough step is explaining how to take lessons from those successes and apply them to Iraq in some meaningful way that doesn't include 'decades' as the scale for its timeline.
 
  • #17
I lived there for a while - the reason for 'peace' seemed to be a combination of:

Improved prosperity - it's hard to feel an oppressed occupied people when you have a shiny new BMW and your house equity went up 20% last year.

A new British government without the baggage of 15 years of 'we will crush terrorism' rhetoric.

An ageing leadership by both sides who fancied a Nobel prize more than a bullet.

A reduction in public (especially American) support for 'freedom fighters' following 9/11


On the down side - a new generation of foot 'soldiers' that now run the same fund raising efforts for themselves mean that some areas have got more dangerous since the peace - but these are poor estates so nobody cares.


There were some very good lessons to learn - talking to both sides, disbanding partisan police forces, reducing military and security presence.
A lesson that hasn't apparently been learned is that after 30years and 3500deaths from terrorism, Britain managed to survive with only the removal of litter bins from railway stations. Now the threat of Al-Queada means that we must have total surveliance, ID cards, new police powers etc ...
 
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  • #18
Could this be another piece to the Iran puzzle?

Tucson-based Raytheon Missile Systems said today it has developed and tested a new conventional warhead technology to smash hardened and deeply buried bunkers.
The new technology, called the Tandem Warhead System, consists of a precursor "shaped-charge" warhead — shaped to focus its explosive energy — combined with a follow-through penetrator explosive charge, the company said.
During a Jan. 31 test, the new 1,000-pound-class warhead set a record when it punched through 19 feet, 3 inches of a 20-foot, 330-ton, reinforced concrete block with a high-velocity jet of molten metal, Raytheon said.

http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/biz-topheadlines/229356.php
 
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  • #19
turbo-1 said:
The Bush administration has shown that it does not need a reason to launch a military offensive against another country.
He, of course had reasons, he just didn't necessarily have the right ones.
The most likely scenario is that he was under increasing pressure to launch carrier-based air strikes against Iran, and that he has resigned rather than comply.
That is complete speculation. Completely baseless.
Guys like Fallon don't walk away from a life of military service just because they want to help an administration save face or reduce the appearance of internal conflict. He was forced out.
He may have been forced-out, but guys like Fallon have a strong sense of duty. If something was getting in the way of him performing that duty (whether a real or perceived conflict doesn't matter), he would leave rather than perform his duties in a compromised fashion.
 
  • #20
BobG said:
Turbo's article, http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39235, illustrates the real reason Fallon is resigning. He lost his battle over the surge to a subordinate (and one he particularly dislikes):
That may be true, but it is odd that it would take more than a year for him to resign over it. I'd like to think he'd be more professional than to resign over sour grapes, now that the surge has proven effective in reducing the violence.

The article paints him as being a career contrarian, and if that's true, I don't know why he'd quit now over an interpersonal conflict. Unless the whole point is that he expects to win conflicts with subordinates. It would be incredibly ironic if he built his career on not being afraid to stand up to superiors, but quit because of being on the other end of it.
 
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  • #21
IIRC Bush said some time ago that he would solve the 'Iranian problem' before leaving office as it would be unfair to hand it over to the next administration.

Recent events such as Cheney's forthcoming visit to the ME region, the stationing of anti-missile ships off Lebanon, the pushing back of the Iranian funded Hezbollah from Israel's borders and the anti-Iranian rhetoric casting Iran's president as the new Hitler (Saddam being the last one awarded that particular accolade) all seem to be steps to prepare the way for what seems to be, following the resignation of Fallon, an imminent US/Israeli strike against Iran. Even the US sponsored Israel/Palestinian peace talks fit the picture as the US gov't always seems to announce a new peace initiative just before they do something which they think is going to annoy a lot of people in the ME.

I'd guess due to Bush's lack of political capital his initial military role will be limited to supplying Israel with the tools to do the job but he will then stand by to protect Israel from the repercussions.
 
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  • #22
Art said:
IIRC Bush said some time ago that he would solve the 'Iranian problem' before leaving office as it would be unfair to hand it over to the next administration.

Recent events such as Cheney's forthcoming visit to the ME region, the stationing of anti-missile ships off Lebanon, the pushing back of the Iranian funded Hezbollah from Israel's borders and the anti-Iranian rhetoric casting Iran's president as the new Hitler (Saddam being the last one awarded that particular accolade) all seem to be steps to prepare the way for what seems to be, following the resignation of Fallon, an imminent US/Israeli strike against Iran. Even the US sponsored Israel/Palestinian peace talks fit the picture as the US gov't always seems to announce a new peace initiative just before they do something which they think is going to annoy a lot of people in the ME.
Art, it would seem as if you want to take the war-mongers in the Bush administration at their word. That's a pretty good bet, and if you want to delve back a bit further to his families' participation in the financing of the Nazi party in WWII you'll find that war-mongering is a family business.
 
  • #23
Turbo-1, while there is much to criticize President Bush for, I don't believe it is fair to criticize him for actions that his grandfather took years before he was born.
 
  • #24
Art said:
Recent events such as Cheney's forthcoming visit to the ME region, the stationing of anti-missile ships off Lebanon, the pushing back of the Iranian funded Hezbollah from Israel's borders and the anti-Iranian rhetoric casting Iran's president as the new Hitler (Saddam being the last one awarded that particular accolade) all seem to be steps to prepare the way for what seems to be, following the resignation of Fallon, an imminent US/Israeli strike against Iran. Even the US sponsored Israel/Palestinian peace talks fit the picture as the US gov't always seems to announce a new peace initiative just before they do something which they think is going to annoy a lot of people in the ME.
How is any of that different from the rhetoric Bush has been spewing for the past 7 years? The "axis of evil" speech was made in January of 2002.
 
  • #25
Why do you all think the surge is working? Cooperation by Iran. Of course, if we attack them, all that cooperation will dissolve into open hostility. It would be a very easy thing for Iran to cause all kinds of trouble in Iraq.
 
  • #26
wildman said:
Why do you all think the surge is working?

It's working?
 
  • #27
russ_watters said:
How is any of that different from the rhetoric Bush has been spewing for the past 7 years? The "axis of evil" speech was made in January of 2002.
Taken in the context of the first paragraph I wrote, time is running out for him to make good on his statement that it would be, "‘unfair’ to leave the task of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities to a new president", which was originally reported by the Sunday Times based on leaked documents and reprinted here http://www.allthingsbeautiful.com/all_things_beautiful/2006/04/does_the_presid.html

If Bush does attack Iran directly or through his proxy Israel I suspect it will be an even bigger mistake with even greater negative consequences than his decision to invade Iraq. Don't you agree?
 
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  • #28
Art said:
Taken in the context of the first paragraph I wrote, time is running out for him to make good on his statement that it would be, "‘unfair’ to leave the task of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities to a new president"
I have no beef with that statement - just the part where you talk about seven year old "recent events".
... I suspect...

Don't you agree?
Yes, I agree that you suspect. :rolleyes:

Art, there just isn't enough content there to actually agree or disagree with. You didn't say anything.
 
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  • #30
Art said:
IIRC Bush said some time ago that he would solve the 'Iranian problem' before leaving office as it would be unfair to hand it over to the next administration.

Yeah what's he going to do wave a magic wand? :wink:

Recent events such as Cheney's forthcoming visit to the ME region, the stationing of anti-missile ships off Lebanon, the pushing back of the Iranian funded Hezbollah from Israel's borders and the anti-Iranian rhetoric casting Iran's president as the new Hitler (Saddam being the last one awarded that particular accolade) all seem to be steps to prepare the way for what seems to be, following the resignation of Fallon, an imminent US/Israeli strike against Iran. Even the US sponsored Israel/Palestinian peace talks fit the picture as the US gov't always seems to announce a new peace initiative just before they do something which they think is going to annoy a lot of people in the ME. I'd guess due to Bush's lack of political capital his initial military role will be limited to supplying Israel with the tools to do the job but he will then stand by to protect Israel from the repercussions.
I too think they'd prefer to just fight proxy wars between Israel and Hezbollah. Less costly.

russ_watters said:
Yes.

Not that I disagree but a recent article might be nice just for interest.
 
  • #31
russ_watters said:
I have no beef with that statement - just the part where you talk about seven year old "recent events". Yes, I agree that you suspect. :rolleyes:

Art, there just isn't enough content there to actually agree or disagree with. You didn't say anything.
:confused: What 7 year old 'recent events' did I refer to? His statement about not leaving it to the next administration is only a couple of years old and in case you didn't know the word 'forthcoming' in reference to Cheney's visit to the region means it hasn't happened yet. The US ships off Lebanon have only just arrived and the first references by Bush to the Iranian president as the new Hitler (which were made privately) was revealed by Seymour Hersh in 2006. Afterall they had to wait until the last new Hitler was dead before reassigning the title. Or perhaps you already know all this but couldn't resist trolling anyway? Grow up! :rolleyes:

Bush 'is planning nuclear strikes on Iran's secret sites'

By Philip Sherwell in Washington
Last Updated: 1:44am BST 11/04/2006

President George W Bush is said to be so alarmed by the threat of Iran's hard-line leader, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, that privately he refers to him as "the new Hitler", says Seymour Hersh, who broke the story of the Abu Ghraib Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal.
snip
A senior Pentagon consultant said that Mr Bush believes that he must do "what no Democrat or Republican, if elected in the future, would have the courage to do," and "that saving Iran is going to be his legacy".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/mai...ml&sSheet=/portal/2006/04/09/ixportaltop.html
U.S. admiral leading wars in Iraq, Afghanistan resigns amid talk of war in Iran

PAUL KORING

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

March 12, 2008 at 6:36 AM EDT

WASHINGTON — The top U.S. military commander running the wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq quit abruptly yesterday after a published report claimed he was fighting off a push by the White House to launch a third war against Iran.

Admiral William Fallon, who headed Central Command, which stretches from the restive Middle East across Iraq and Iran to Afghanistan and Central Asia and is the focus of U.S. President George W. Bush's multifronted war on Islamic extremism, ended a glittering military career in what seemed to be a rift with the President.

"Recent press reports suggesting a disconnect between my views and the President's policy objectives have become a distraction at a critical time and hamper efforts in the Centcom region," said the admiral, who was traveling yesterday in Iraq. His staff issued the statement.

Last week, Esquire published an article that suggested the admiral was making a lonely last stand trying to stave off plans to wipe out Iran's nuclear program with pre-emptive air strikes.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080312.wmilitary12/BNStory/International/home

Russia Criticizes US Ships Off Lebanon

By EDITH M. LEDERER – 3 days ago

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Russia told the U.N. Security Council on Monday that the presence of U.S. Navy warships in the Mediterranean off the coast of Lebanon was not helping resolve the political crisis in Lebanon.

Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, the current council president, said he raised the U.S. deployment at a closed council meeting on implementation of the U.N. cease-fire resolution that ended the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon in August 2006.

"We pointed out the fact that basically all Lebanese political forces expressed their concern about that, including the government of Prime Minister (Fuad) Saniora, and we have said that such acts were bringing up some unwanted historical analogies," he said.

"So we did not see it as a constructive contribution to the situation in Lebanon," Churkin said.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hv9R00tjpXgAoxMEB7017-yjPkewD8VAU5TG0

Cengiz Candar: Why is Cheney coming and what is he bringing?
U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney will be in Ankara in two days. He will be on a quick Middle East expedition covering Oman to Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank and Turkey. The stops clearly suggest that it will be a trip to talk about Iran.

Cheney's being the visitor is all alone a topic of another article, as he is the “most hawkish” name of the Bush administration if the “Iran dossier,” in particular, is at issue. And the office of the U.S. vice president is frequently visited by the staunch advocates of Israel, primarily David Wurmser, demanding a “military strike against Iran.” These are the most hawkish figures among the “neo-cons.”
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/turkey/8457679.asp?gid=231&sz=30694

Perhaps you should acquaint yourself with IBM training 101's advice about being 'better to sit there quietly etc etc '
 
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  • #32
russ_watters said:
He may have been forced-out, but guys like Fallon have a strong sense of duty. If something was getting in the way of him performing that duty (whether a real or perceived conflict doesn't matter), he would leave rather than perform his duties in a compromised fashion.
Here is an article by Philip Giraldi. He is a contributing editor and columnist for The American Conservative, among other things. According to him, Fallon was forced to resign, and his resignation was accelerated to get him out of the way before Cheney's trip to the Middle East.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/philip-giraldi/fallon-walks-the-plank_b_91987.html
The White House has often asserted that it likes open debate of issues and prefers to have generals and admirals who speak their minds, but that is a lie. The list of senior officers who have been replaced by the administration is a long one and nearly all of the changes have come about due to disagreements on policy, not because of incompetence or malfeasance. The White House decided that Fallon was running his own foreign policy and President Bush made the decision to fire him after the Esquire piece appeared, though the intention was to wait a month or so to let him retire quietly, permitting the administration to deny that any disagreement over Iran policy had been the issue.

Vice President Dick Cheney then intervened to move the resignation process forward, arguing that Fallon was a distraction for the Cheney trip to the Middle East, which started on Sunday March 16th. The vice president intended to discuss Iran with Saudi Arabia and other allies in an attempt to harden the line against the Mullahs, but the continued presence of Fallon suggesting that a softer line might be pursued would make Cheney's task much more difficult. Cheney wanted Fallon out immediately, to send the message that there is only one Iran policy and that Cheney is running it. Bush and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates agreed and Fallon was made to walk the plank. The administration hopes that he will enter into his retirement quietly and accept some highly lucrative board memberships with defense contractors that will induce him to continue to keep his mouth shut about Bush policy in the Middle East.
 
  • #33
Schrodinger's Dog;1648212Not that I disagree but a recent article might be nice just for interest.[/QUOTE said:
http://www.smallwarsjournal.com/documents/iraqaardec2007.pdf" - Dec 2007
The struggle for stability in the Iraqi Civil War has entered a new phase with dramatically
reduced levels of civilian sectarian violence, political assassinations, abductions, and
small arms/ indirect fire and IED attacks on US and Iraqi Police and Army Forces.
This is the unmistakable new reality ---and must be taken into account as the US debates
its options going forward. The national security debate must move on to an analysis of
why this new political and security situation exists---not whether it exists.

http://www.icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeathsByYear.aspx
 
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  • #34
But that statement can be used either way:
1, The troop surge was a massive success - so if we deploy even more troops in Iraq there will be even less violence.
2, Iraq is becoming more peacful - so we can remove troops.
 
  • #35
BobG said:
According to a few books discussed in the article, Who Really Brought Peace to Belfast, it took a civil servant bureaucracy and 30 years of infiltrating the IRA to finally bring peace.
Wait a minute: it wasn't Hillary?
 
  • #36
Gokul43201 said:
Wait a minute: it wasn't Hillary?

Wait until Tony Blair solves the middle east! The trouble is that he thinks he IS Jesus - which might not exactly help matters.
 
  • #37
mgb_phys said:
But that statement can be used either way:
1, The troop surge was a massive success - so if we deploy even more troops in Iraq there will be even less violence.
2, Iraq is becoming more peacful - so we can remove troops.
Logically true. However, the goal of US leadership has been to get the country to a point of stability where it can maintain itself, a condition enabled by low levels of violence, the maturity of Iraqi forces and political structures. So infinitely improved security is not required, just something that's good enough; the 'good enough' being the tough call.
 
  • #38
mheslep said:
Logically true. However, the goal of US leadership has been to get the country to a point of stability where it can maintain itself, a condition enabled by low levels of violence, the maturity of Iraqi forces and political structures. So infinitely improved security is not required, just something that's good enough; the 'good enough' being the tough call.
So what response is now required following the upsurge in violence since January? Up 33% month on month. Another even bigger troop surge?

The purpose of the original surge was to create a window to allow for reconciliation but as recently as today Sunni's and some Shias refused to attend a reconciliation meeting and the Kurds still will not agree on an oil revenue sharing deal with the rest of Iraq.

The whole situation seems as hopeless as ever.
 
  • #39
Art said:
So what response is now required following the upsurge in violence since January? Up 33% month on month. Another even bigger troop surge?

The purpose of the original surge was to create a window to allow for reconciliation but as recently as today Sunni's and some Shias refused to attend a reconciliation meeting and the Kurds still will not agree on an oil revenue sharing deal with the rest of Iraq.

The whole situation seems as hopeless as ever.
? Last year Feb violence was almost 6x worse.
 
  • #40
mheslep said:
? Last year Feb violence was almost 6x worse.
Last year, the ethnic cleansing was far from complete. This year, many districts are controlled and populated predominantly by one sect or another, and many minority families driven from their homes are internally displaced or are refugees located in neighboring countries. In addition, al Sadr unilaterally ordered his militias to stand down over 6 months ago. That certainly helped scale back the violence, too. There are a lot of complications driving the dynamic of ethnic violence, and once ethnic violence ramps down, clashes between militant factions and US forces decrease, as well.
 
  • #41
The Awakening Councils are being given some credit. Since they are financed by the Pentagon anyway this idea probably could have been used instead of the surge.

The fighters of the Sunni Awakening are nearly 80,000 strong, paid for by the Pentagon, and independent of the Iraqi government. The Awakening Councils started in Anbar Province more than a year ago but really took off after the surge, and now scores of groups have effectively taken responsibility for law and order in their neighborhoods.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=4109560&page=1

Then again for $300 per month we may just be paying them not to shoot at us as many of them had been doing previously.

A retired general who lives in Tucson was interviewed on a local PBS program last night.
He claimed that we are paying some of the sect leaders big money to keep them on our side.

The one thing we can't seem to buy in Iraq is Democracy.
 
  • #42
mheslep said:
? Last year Feb violence was almost 6x worse.
For a time following an adjustment to US tactics the violence diminished month on month but as ever the insurgents are learning to adapt with the result that so far this year the level of violence has begun to escalate again.

On Monday when Cheney visited Baghdad over 60 civilians were killed in bomb blasts in Iraq. He himself was surrounded by bodyguards throughout his visit which never extended outside of the green zone which received 2 incoming mortars during the few hours he was there.

If this represents success in Iraq then it only goes to highlight just how dire the situation was previously.
 
  • #43
edward said:
..The one thing we can't seem to buy in Iraq is Democracy.
There's been plenty of democracy since 2005 with millions turning out to vote. What's lacking is security and stability.
 
  • #44
Back to the OP topic - a possible attack on Iran.

Quick, who said:
We will also use all elements of American power to pressure Iran. I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, everything.
...
[Iran's] president denies the Holocaust and threatens to wipe Israel off the map. The danger from Iran is grave, it is real, and my goal will be to eliminate this threat.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/u...html?pagewanted=5&_r=2&sq=aipac&st=nyt&scp=3"
 
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  • #45
didn't need the link. that was Obama at AIPAC. I try to keep up.
 
  • #46
Obama does say he wil try increased diplomacy first so that he will have the support of the US and the world if it comes to an attack.

Finally, let there be no doubt: I will always keep the threat of military action on the table to defend our security and our ally, Israel. Do not be confused.

(APPLAUSE)

Sometimes there are no alternatives to confrontation, but that only makes diplomacy more important. If we must use military force, we are more likely to succeed and will have far greater support at home and abroad if we have exhausted our diplomatic efforts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/u....html?pagewanted=6&_r=2&sq=aipac&st=nyt&scp=3
 
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  • #47
Evo said:
Obama does say he wil try increased diplomacy first so that he will have the support of the US and the world if it comes to an attack.
It may, it very well may not. What historical precedent leads you to believe that increased diplomacy, that fails, will then produce support in the US and the world? There's evidence from the Iraq war build up that diplomacy, with the leverage of sanctions as the Senator has declared he wants, can reduce support. Sanctions invariably have the side effect of harming common people inside the country, so one can count on a backlash.
 
  • #48
mheslep said:
There's evidence from the Iraq war build up that diplomacy, with the leverage of sanctions as the Senator has declared he wants, can reduce support.
If you start an unjustified war on false premises and promises and with poor planning, that can reduce support for the effort. The support for the Iraq War has little to do with any disingenuous and aborted attempt at diplomacy, nor does it have much to do with the ineffectiveness of sanctions.
 
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  • #49
Now we have an Israeli minister characterizing an Israeli air attack on Iran as "unavoidable". If they attack Iran, that will give Bush and Cheney the additional war that they are drooling over. This is my biggest fear - that Israel will act unilaterally and that the neocons who control US policy will commit our carrier groups to pounding Iraq.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080606/wl_nm/israel_iran_mofaz_dc;_ylt=AnsWPX3p2M_NoaOgx1HQ8LWs0NUE
 
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  • #50
Gokul43201 said:
If you start an unjustified war on false premises and promises and with poor planning, .

Put that cart back behind the horse where it belongs.

The discussion is about the events leading *up to* a conflict with Iran. To compare it with your 20/20 hindsight of your version of what happened in Iraq is disingenuous.

Sanctions have historically been shown to reduce popular support.
 

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