Conditional Expectation Question (Probability Theory)

In summary, the question is asking to find the expected value of e^-Λ given X=1, where X follows a Poisson distribution with parameter λ and Λ follows an exponential distribution with parameter λ. The solution involves finding the marginal distribution of X and using it to calculate the conditional distribution of Λ given X=1.
  • #1
Sprng
2
0

Homework Statement



(Question is #6 on p.171 in An Introduction to Probability and Statistics by Ruhatgi & Saleh)

Let X have PMF Pλ{X=x} = λxe/x!, x=0,1,2...
and suppose that λ is a realization of a RV Λ with PDF
f(λ)=e, λ>0.

Find E(e|X=1)


The Attempt at a Solution



The answer according to the solutions in the back of the text is 4/9.

I'm really not sure where to begin. My problem is that one of these distributions is continuous and one is discrete and there are no conditional probability examples that are like that.

What I know is that X~Poisson and Λ~Exponential.

I believe that E(e|X=1)=integral{efΛ|X(λ|x)dλ,from λ=0 to infinity}. However, I do not see an easy way to calculate fΛ|X(λ|x).

Also, would the first distribution be considered the conditional probability mass function of X given λ? (That's how I was treating it in my attempts).

Thanks in advance for any tips.
 
Physics news on Phys.org
  • #2
Yay. Nevermind. I was somehow able to solve it. I found the marginal distribution of X, and replaced the fλ|X with fX|λ(x|λ)*f(λ)/f(x) and it worked. :)
 

1. What is conditional expectation in probability theory?

Conditional expectation in probability theory is a measure of the expected value of a random variable given certain conditions or information about a related variable. It is used to calculate the average outcome of an event or experiment, taking into account specific conditions that may affect the outcome.

2. How is conditional expectation calculated?

The formula for calculating conditional expectation is E(X|Y) = ∑x P(X=x | Y=y), where X and Y are random variables and x and y are specific values. This formula takes into account the probability of each possible outcome of X given the value of Y, and calculates the expected value as a weighted average of these outcomes.

3. What is the difference between conditional expectation and unconditional expectation?

Unconditional expectation is the average value of a random variable without any conditions or additional information. Conditional expectation, on the other hand, takes into account specific conditions or values of related variables, and calculates the expected value accordingly. In other words, conditional expectation is a more specific and tailored measure of expected value.

4. How is the concept of conditional expectation used in real-world applications?

Conditional expectation is a fundamental concept in probability theory and is widely used in various fields such as economics, finance, and engineering. It is used to model and analyze real-world scenarios where certain conditions or information affect the outcome of an event or experiment. For example, in finance, conditional expectation is used to calculate expected returns on investments based on different economic conditions.

5. What is the significance of conditional expectation in probability theory?

Conditional expectation is an important tool in probability theory as it allows us to incorporate additional information and conditions into our calculations of expected values. It helps us to better understand and predict the outcomes of events or experiments in situations where multiple variables are at play. It also has many practical applications in various fields and is a crucial concept for advanced statistical analysis.

Similar threads

  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
0
Views
155
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
14
Views
2K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
5
Views
1K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
15
Views
1K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
3
Views
2K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
4
Views
1K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
10
Views
2K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
4
Views
1K
Back
Top