Confused by this probability question

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Discussion Overview

This discussion revolves around understanding a probability question related to calculating the expected value of rolling two dice simultaneously. Participants explore the notation used in the formula for expected value and clarify the application of this formula in the context of discrete random variables.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses confusion about the notation used in the expected value formula for rolling two dice.
  • Another participant clarifies that since the total sum of two dice is a discrete random variable, the expectation should be calculated as a sum rather than an integral.
  • A participant explains that the expected value can be expressed as a sum of the probabilities of each possible outcome multiplied by their respective values.
  • There is a question raised about whether the range of values for the expected value should start from 2 instead of 1, given that the minimum sum of two dice is 2.
  • A later reply discusses the inclusion of terms in the expected value sum, noting that terms corresponding to impossible outcomes (like negative sums) will contribute zero to the expectation.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the method of calculating the expected value but have differing views on the appropriate range of values to include in the sum, particularly regarding whether to start from 1 or 2.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights the importance of understanding the notation and the implications of including or excluding certain terms in the expected value calculation, particularly in the context of discrete random variables.

das1
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I came across this problem and I'm wondering if anyone can tell me what it means/how to do it:
"Given the formula below to model, what is the expected value of rolling two dice simultaneously?
$$E(X)= \sum_{i=1}^{\infty}x_i f(x_i)."$$

I've never seen this notation before; how does it work?
 
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das said:
I came across this problem and I'm wondering if anyone can tell me what it means/how to do it:
"Given the formula below to model, what is the expected value of rolling two dice simultaneously?
E[X] = *the sum from 1 to infinity* of xi f (xi)"

I've never seen this notation before; how does it work?

You are dealing with a discrete random variable (the total sum on two dice is an integer) so the expectation won't be an integral, it will be a sum. Let $X$ be the sum of the two dice. $f_{X}(x)$ is a common notation for the density fuction. For discrete Random variables, as in this case we have $f_{X}(x)=P(X=x)$. $X$ can take values 1 to 12. The expectation is $1P(X=1)+2P(X=2)+..+12P(X=12)$
 
Fermat, you're a legend, thank you.
One thing, shouldn't it be 2 to 12 because that's the lowest you can get when rolling 2 dice simultaneously?
 
das said:
Fermat, you're a legend, thank you.
One thing, shouldn't it be 2 to 12 because that's the lowest you can get when rolling 2 dice simultaneously?

Good question! Normally you write all non-zero terms in the sum but you can actually use this formula for all discrete numbers. Why? Let's look at when the sum equals $-2$ for example. This part of the expected value sum would be $-2 \cdot P[X=-2]$. The probability the sum equals a negative number though is obviously 0, so this term becomes $-2 \cdot 0=0$. All other terms outside of the range of possible sums will also drop to zero, thus we usually only include the non-zero terms when writing out the work.

So yes, it would make more sense maybe to write $2P(X=2)+3P[X=3]..+12P(X=12)$ but $1P(X=1)+2P(X=2)+..+12P(X=12)$ isn't incorrect because $1P[X=1]=0$ :)
 

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