COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

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    coronavirus covid-19
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SUMMARY

The forum discussion centers on the containment efforts of the 2019-nCoV Coronavirus, highlighting concerns from infectious disease experts about the feasibility of controlling its spread. Dr. Allison McGeer emphasizes that the virus may not be containable, potentially leading to a global pandemic with mortality rates significantly higher than seasonal flu. Current estimates suggest that if 2019-nCoV spreads like the flu, U.S. deaths could range from 320,000 to 480,000. Vaccine development is underway, with companies like Moderna Therapeutics and Inovio Pharmaceuticals involved, but it is unlikely that a vaccine will be ready in time to address the current outbreak.

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  • Familiarity with the concepts of epidemic and pandemic
  • Knowledge of vaccine development processes and timelines
  • Awareness of public health measures and their effectiveness
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  • Research the latest updates on 2019-nCoV from the CDC and WHO
  • Learn about the vaccine development process for emerging viruses
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This discussion is beneficial for public health officials, epidemiologists, healthcare professionals, and anyone interested in understanding the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks and containment strategies.

  • #1,471
anorlunda said:
How did you become aware of those 7 things without an alert on your phone?
I'm near the extreme end of the bell curve in terms of self educating, so my experience is of little value. It would be interesting to have polls from people, including teenagers, through time seeing how much they knew. If we don't use the EAS at this point though, I don't know what it's even for at all. That's all, I think I've given my opinion already. It's OK if we disagree.
 
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  • #1,472
Ygggdrasil said:
In this context, herd immunity describes a strategy proposed by a few countries (most notably by Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the UK), in which a country eliminates the disease by letting a large fraction of the population contract the disease and therefore become immune to it
I can forgive Johnson of the UK because he's an utter lightweight but the Dutch PM?
 
  • #1,474
kadiot said:
I can forgive Johnson of the UK because he's an utter lightweight but the Dutch PM?
I understand the British have decided not to follow the strategy of herd immunity. Estimates suggest the overall cost will be too high and things will become considerably worse before getting better.
 
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  • #1,475
gmax137 said:
Are you kidding? The 4 hours of local TV news is entirely devoted to this, as is the 1/2 hour evening national news (staggered, so I can see an hour of that) plus the 2 hours of national "morning" news. It is all anyone talks about, not to mention the social media (see this 1400+ post thread on PF for example). Here in Nevada, the Governor told all non-essential businesses to close (and many are doing that, including the casinos, big & small) -- so the uninformed are presented with locked doors on closed stores. Also, if any of your doctors, dentists, etc. have your email address you get messages from them notifying you to forget about routine or non-emergency appointments.
It's sad, but many people don't watch the news, they are watching reality TV. They might know something is going on, but not the facts. I posted before that my neighbor that is a division manager at one of the largest communication providers that this will all be over in a few weeks! Most people I speak with are of the same opinion, this will be over before the end of April! REALLY? Where are they getting this?

Today I went to the store and there were NO EGGS! NONE! Who hordes eggs? NO LETTUCE! Who hordes lettuce? What is wrong with these people? You don't horde perishables! Although eggs do last for quite a long time.
 
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  • #1,476
Jarvis323 said:
I'm near the extreme end of the bell curve in terms of self educating,
Oh, I'm sorry to hear that. If we had known that in advance, we could have made allowances and been more gentle. :wink:
 
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  • #1,477
Evo said:
Who hordes eggs?
Hmm... this may not be due to the coronavirus. We could actually be facing the evil twin of the Easter Bunny. :smile:
 
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  • #1,478
gmax137 said:
I can't think of a way to implement that, nor can I think of a single time in the ~240 years of our government's existence when that has happened.
Trump can spam everyone's cellphone, it's already been done.
 
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  • #1,479
Just as an aside:

horde: noun; a large group of people.
"he was surrounded by a horde of tormenting relatives"

hoard: verb; amass (money or valued objects) and hide or store away.
"thousands of antiques hoarded by a compulsive collector"

/grammarpolice
 
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  • #1,480
Evo said:
It's sad, but many people don't watch the news, they are watching reality TV. They might know something is going on, but not the facts. I posted before that my neighbor that is a division manager at one of the largest communication providers that this will all be over in a few weeks! Most people I speak with are of the same opinion, this will be over before the end of April! REALLY? Where are they getting this?

Today I went to the store and there were NO EGGS! NONE! Who hordes eggs? NO LETTUCE! Who hordes lettuce? What is wrong with these people? You don't horde perishables! Although eggs do last for quite a long time.
No eggs where I am at either. I was wondering if people are preserving them somehow (pickled, fermented?). But if lettuce is also out, I don't know what to think. Nobody preserves lettuce as far as I know.
 
  • #1,481
gmax137 said:
Just as an aside:

horde: noun; a large group of people.
"he was surrounded by a horde of tormenting relatives"

hoard: verb; amass (money or valued objects) and hide or store away.
"thousands of antiques hoarded by a compulsive collector"

/grammarpolice
Ooops, SORRY.
 
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  • #1,482
Evo said:
Today I went to the store and there were NO EGGS! NONE! Who hordes eggs? NO LETTUCE! Who hordes lettuce? What is wrong with these people?
If only they knew how good collector of nanoparticles lettuce was...
 
  • #1,483
Evo said:
Trump can spam everyone's cellphone, it's already been done.
Well, the action discussed is
Jarvis323 said:
concise, official direct messages from the government to each person.
I took "each person" to mean "everyone." Last time I checked, smartphone ownership was at around 80% of adults. So there's 1/5 being left out...

Really, my point was that people have to take some responsibility for keeping themselves informed. I think the notion that you can just sit back, and if anything important comes up, the "government" will let you know, that's just silly. Especially in the "personal message" sense, that, "the government will text me anything urgent."
 
  • #1,484
Jarvis323 said:
No eggs where I am at either. I was wondering if people are preserving them somehow (pickled, fermented?). But if lettuce is also out, I don't know what to think. Nobody preserves lettuce as far as I know.
Lettuce now what happens. Sorry, best I could come up with.
 
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  • #1,485
My mother in law used to talk about "honeymoon salad"

You know, lettuce alone.
 
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  • #1,486
WWGD said:
Lettuce now what happens. Sorry, best I could come up with.
Toilet paper here. Don't ask why
 
  • #1,487
zoki85 said:
Toilet paper here. Don't ask why
Dont worry, tp is the new " Don't ask don't tell" since the crisis.
 
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  • #1,488
WWGD said:
Lettuce now what happens.
Just as an aside:

adverb: now
1. at the present time or moment.

verb: know
1. be aware of through observation, inquiry, or information.
/grammardictionpolice . . . .:oldtongue:

.
 
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  • #1,489
gmax137 said:
/grammarpolice

Actually, that's not grammar, it's diction. :wink:
 
  • #1,490
OCR said:
Just as an aside:

adverb: now
1. at the present time or moment.

verb: know
1. be aware of through observation, inquiry, or information.
/grammarpolice . . . .:oldtongue:

.
More like typing police. It was supposed to be 'lettuce know...'
 
  • #1,491
OCR said:
Just as an aside:

adverb: now
1. at the present time or moment.

verb: know
1. be aware of through observation, inquiry, or information.
/grammarpolice . . . .:oldtongue:

.
More like typing police. Small keys + fat fingers= 'now instead of the intended 'know.
 
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  • #1,492
WWGD said:
More like typing police. It was supposed to be 'lettuce know...'
Yeah. . . I now.

.
 
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  • #1,493
Evo said:
Today I went to the store and there were NO EGGS! NONE! Who hordes eggs?
Wish I would have had somehow to store a few "Roger" eggs:

attachment.php-attachmentid=56404&stc=1&d=1362538661.jpg
 
  • #1,494
gmax137 said:
/grammarpolice
OCR said:
/grammarpolice
Vanadium 50 said:
Actually, that's not grammar, it's diction.
WWGD said:
More like typing police.
Here's a sketch for you guys. :smile:
 
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  • #1,495
dlgoff said:
Wish I would have had somehow to store a few "Roger" eggs:

View attachment 258956
ROGER! Are those her eggs on the left? (I was going to say his)
 
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  • #1,496
That looks like a proper egg:approve:
 
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  • #1,497
Dr. Courtney said:
Until I see the data, I'm going to church. Because my faith tells me I should, and the 1st Amendment tells me I can.

DATA : google "South Korea church coronavirus". Pretty specific.

CHURCH : Your faith requires keeping the Sabbath holy ; your religious organization may (or may not) require weekly service attendance. Don't mix the two up.

Note, keep up with the tithes in the interim : it isn't "God" that requires money, and a few weeks/months off could give pastors a chance to do capital repairs on the building.

GOVERNMENT : Your government has several provisions to supersede your constitutional rights during a state of emergency. Most of those provisions are in the Constitution, itself.

kadiot said:
PRINCIPLE OF HERD IMMUNITY STRATEGY TO FIGHT THE VIRUS: consists of sacrificing some members of the herd so that the rest of the herd is protected in the future.

In simple terms, "herd immunity" is the application of the natural selection law, i.e., only the strong will survive and the weak will be eliminated.

Did I understand it correctly?

Apparently not. Have you tried Wikipedia ? Note, "flattening the curve" has nothing to do with "herd immunity".
 
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  • #1,498
russ_watters said:
The statement was more forward looking: You have strongly implied a willingness to use legal and physical force to defy government orders, when they come.

Not at all. Neither the church in Baton Rouge nor I suggested the use of physical force. More of an MLK-style peaceful protest with policies we disagree with. Legal force? That's just a synonym for asserting 1st Amendment rights. My attorney has recommended full compliance when presented with a court order supporting a specific church closure.

russ_watters said:
Obviously this hasn't happened yet in your case, but this sub-discussion started when you posted a story of a church who did exactly that and then took umbrage to our negative reactions. But you do seem to be softening your stance a bit.

My stance has not changed. Attempting to shame a church for meeting in a community with "none to minimal" cases of COVID-19 was uncalled for. I REBUKE it as strongly today as I did when it was first stated. The governor's order attempting to close churches in communities without the presence of Coronavirus was illegal, and neither the local police nor any other legal authority has been willing to enforce it.

russ_watters said:
Do you anticipate more than 50 people to attend your church on Sunday?

I have no idea. The church is bending over backwards both to accommodate and welcome online attendance as well as to keep things safe for in-person attendance. I expect there to be enough empty seats to maintain a 6 ft distance. There will likely be fewer people in church than in the nearest Walmart, which is the last place I'd want to be at 11 AM Sunday morning. I expect everyone to be as meticulously careful about hygiene issues as they were at the event I attended last Sunday. I don't think it will be any more dangerous than my fishing trip this afternoon. Due to all the closures, it was busier than any time on the lake last year - a Thursday afternoon in March was busier on the lake than the 4th of July and the other 50 times I went fishing last year.

People got to get out. Months of house arrest will not work.

But the wisdom of the Georgia approach is in recommendations for rural counties rather than orders. This is the education phase for counties with minimal or no COVID-19 cases. Georgia is taking a collaborative approach with communities rather than an authoritative approach. The most powerful person (on social issues) in my county is a local pastor of a big church. The politicians schmoozed him to set an example and move all of his ministries to online-only. In exchange, he got some props from the executive branch. As a result his online viewership last Sunday not only exceeded his average church attendance, his online viewership exceeded THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF THE COUNTY. I estimate 80% of the churches in the county followed the example of the prominent large church.

Most of the remaining 20% can likely be brought into voluntary compliance with Georgia recommendations through the usual education and gently persuasion by the time the county has double-digit COVID-19 cases. The sheriff's department, the health department, the local schools, and most local government has a pretty positive relationship with most churches. Where an order from the governor would be resisted strongly, gentle persuasion toward voluntary compliance from people in the community they know, trust, and work will all the time will succeed by the time it is needed.
 
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  • #1,499
Can we please get off of the church gripe? This is about people assembling in large groups, we don't care why. No one should be doing it for any reason. And the best way, IMO, to get cases where there are none is to get a bunch of people together in an enclosed place on a regular basis.
 
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  • #1,500
Evo said:
Can we please get off of the church gripe? This is about people assembling in large groups, we don't care why. No one should be doing it for any reason.

A nationwide lockdown is not justified. There are lots of rural counties without a single case of COVID-19 identified.

The 1st Amendment stands. By the time this is over, there will be an election in sight, and the same legal principles will apply to political assemblies. I'm sure fans of candidates that are better at online rallies would like to keep their boot on the throats of candidates who are better at in-person rallies. Cancelling political rallies also implicates the 1st Amendment and the justifications must be narrowly tailored and subjected to very strict scrutiny from the court of jurisdiction before they are enforceable. It is not needed and will not be legal in counties without a single case of COVID-19.
 

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