COVID Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[Astronuc]

NY State had one more death in the 10-19 age group, up from 20 to 21 deaths, after sitting at 20 for 10 days; it was 18 on Dec 14, and 17 on Dec 06, so roughly one death per week in the 10-19 population, with higher rates in the 20-29, 30-39, 40-49 and 50-59 groups.

Today, NY State reports 67,090 new positive COVID-19 cases, exceeding the previous daily record of 49,708 positive cases set 4 days ago. The state also reports 99 new deaths, including a child/youth (10-19) and another young adult (20-29), since the day before (there were 6 deaths in this age group since Dec 20, 8 days ago). The variant is not mentioned on conjunction with the new deaths. This represents a significant increase in mortality in those two age groups.

Edit/update: Using two sources from NY State,

                12/27   Pct     12/28     11/28   Diff
Statewide Total 48,150  100    48,249    46,484  1,765
Unknown              9       
90 and Over      7,520  15.6    7,530     7,320    210
80 to 89        12,861  26.7   12,882    12,469    413
70 to 79        12,465  25.9   12,492    11,992    500
60 to 69         8,798  18.3    8,817     8,460    357
50 to 59         4,168   8.7    4,181     4,011    170
40 to 49         1,482   3.1    1,489     1,426     63
30 to 39           620   1.3      620       587     33
20 to 29           189   0.4      190       176     14
10 to 19            21     0       22        17      5
 0 to  9            17     0       17        17      0

The last column shows the number of deaths in one month, 11/28 - 12/28. Many or most deaths in the younger age groups have occurred during the last week. So, the mortality rate seems to have increased significantly.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Idiot:
1. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...sion-rulebreaking-disappointing-minister-says
2. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...dj-who-broke-the-rules-is-a-punch-in-the-face

I'm not accepting his apology, but I will accept the right amount of cash if I catch omicron because of him.

 

[Evo]

Omicron Not Less Severe Than Delta, UK Study Says

I've got to get my booster shot. I had to got to the grocery store to get items I can't get delivered and there was only ONE other person wearing a mask, a little old lady. The employees weren't wearing any, people were looking at me like I was a freak. There were no longer markers for social distancing in the checkout lane. Didn't I know the pandemic was OVER??

it's all over tv, they're telling people they can gather again with friends and family, things are back to normal. WHAT?

Researchers estimate the risk of reinfection by Omicron is 5.4 times greater than for the Delta.

“This implies that the protection against reinfection by Omicron afforded by past infection may be as low as 19%,” the blog said, adding that researchers estimated protection would be between 0-20% after two doses of vaccine and would be 55-80% after a booster shot.

“This study provides further evidence of the very substantial extent to which Omicron can evade prior immunity given by both infection or vaccination. This level of immune evasion means that Omicron poses a major, imminent threat to public health.” wrote Professor Neil Ferguson, the leader of the research team.

“Quantifying reinfection risk and vaccine effectiveness against Omicron is essential for modelling the likely future trajectory of the Omicron wave and the potential impact of vaccination and other public health interventions,” Professor Azra Ghani of the Imperial College London wrote in the blog post.

There were only 24 known cases of hospitalization caused by Omicron, the study said, meaning more research will be needed in that area.

Health authorities in the United Kingdom worry that Omicron cases will overwhelm hospitals because the variant is spreading so fast and Omicron cases are doubling every two days.

“Whatever the eventual percentage of people with Omicron who will need NHS care, the absolute number seeking care will also double every two days,” Christina Pagel, director of UCL’s Clinical Operational Research Unit, wrote in an opinion piece for TheGuardian.

“So the question is not whether it will be bad for the NHS, but whether it will be just dreadful or catastrophic.”

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20211221/uk-study-says-omicron-not-less-severe-than-delta?ecd=wnl_spr_122921&ctr=wnl-spr-122921_promo_link_1&mb=E@dJaVLVVwbLW8ywNt2x6OHnVev1imbCOuIpC1oF3cU=

 

[nsaspook]

For most of us, it seems from reports of cases, only a matter of time until infected by Omicron. Get your shots and boosters, wear your mask, shields to full power, do the right thing but it still won't be sufficient to prevent or even slow transmission for people living outside of a class 10 clean-room.

 

[Tom.G]

@Evo , The battling of conflicting reports:

preprint: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.17.473248v1

popular report:
https://www.livescience.com/omicron-less-severe-disease-early-evidence

...despite its concerning PBCS mutations, omicron entered the lung cells and organoids less efficiently than delta and instead more closely resembled Wuhan-1.

...omicron initiated cell fusion less efficiently than delta, and this seemed to hinder the virus's ability to replicate in lung cells.

As usual, COVID-19 has generated many conflicting 'conclusions.'

Eventually (a year, a decade?), we may have many more definitive answers
The above seems to support other reports that the lungs are less affected by Omicron than by Delta, including how and why.

Cheers,
Tom

 

[Evo]

@Tom.G . I agree, Omicron, from what I've read is mainly in the bronchial tubes, which makes me question what is sending people to the hospital and dying, although right now there have not been many deaths.

I may have had Omicron, my neighbor advised me that he had been told where he works that he had been exposed to a co-worker with it, and he did end up with it, not too severe. A few days later, I woke up in the middle of the night with the most severe bout of what felt like croup, but really weird, it was wave after wave of mucous that I was having to clear from my vocal cords and airways, so much so, I had to remain over a bucket, this went on for about an hour before it finally lessened to the point where I could start to breath normally. I lost my voice for 2 days, I'm still hoarse. I had a slight fever, but I take fist fulls of aspirin and ibuprofen every day for pain.

I've just been feeling miserable, my youngest daughter had flown into town for Christmas and I had to cancel the first day and the second day, I just met with her for 1 1/2 hours and outside at a distance because I was afraid I might be contagious. I don't know what it is with me and Covid, I'm fully vaccinated, but I can see how this might send people to the ER. I am afraid of going to the ER/hospital I have had such bad experiences at the hospital, I just won't go unless I'm dying.

Right now, I am experiencing bad headaches and nausea, I can't eat. Hopefully this will end soon. I have Christmas gifts for neighbors that I haven't been able to deliver. It's not flu, no pain, and I had my flu shot.

 

[kyphysics]

Omicron Not Less Severe Than Delta, UK Study Says

I've got to get my booster shot. I had to got to the grocery store to get items I can't get delivered and there was only ONE other person wearing a mask, a little old lady. The employees weren't wearing any, people were looking at me like I was a freak. There were no longer markers for social distancing in the checkout lane. Didn't I know the pandemic was OVER??

it's all over tv, they're telling people they can gather again with friends and family, things are back to normal. WHAT?
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20211221/uk-study-says-omicron-not-less-severe-than-delta?ecd=wnl_spr_122921&ctr=wnl-spr-122921_promo_link_1&mb=E@dJaVLVVwbLW8ywNt2x6OHnVev1imbCOuIpC1oF3cU=

My head hurts from all the headlines saying different things re: Omicron's virulence vs. Delta...

Is it or isn't it worse? Do we have definitive results? What are the details? Anyone want to do a full summary?

 

[Tom.G]

Anyone want to do a full summary?

That does seem to be important to you.

So...

Have at it!... and Please let us know what your conclusions are, as they will be added to the (overly extensive) list of possibilities we are collecting.

 

[valenumr]

My head hurts from all the headlines saying different things re: Omicron's virulence vs. Delta...

Is it or isn't it worse? Do we have definitive results? What are the details? Anyone want to do a full summary?

I'd say... Hard to say. The data is much more complex now, with varying vaccination levels, a good handful of different vaccines, etc. I think the one thing that is becoming clear is that it's very contagious. I think any speculation on outcomes is still specious and anecdotal. But in my opinion, it's not great that it is really spreading rapidly. A bunch of sick folks is never a good thing.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

CDC revises Omicron numbers lowering percentage drastically: "Omicron is now estimated to account for 58.6% of all new cases."
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=81952698

I'm waiting to see the data.

Edit/update: from PoliticoI thought the CDC statement concerning Dec 18 estimate was off. Their explanation as to why seems a bit off as well. Faulty predictions, or sloppy statistical analysis?

There are some difficulties in estimating the prevalence of omicron from variant sequencing data alone. The variant sequencing data can be used to track the relative prevalence of omicron vs delta only if samples are sequenced randomly. However, because omicron is new and identifiable by RT-qPCR testing (via S- result in the test), a lot of sequencing has been focused on omicron samples, so they are likely over-represented in the raw counts of omicron vs delta sequences in the variant sequencing databases. This issue is discussed in a letter published in the journal Science a few weeks ago:

Although S-gene data will be informative, preferential sequencing of samples with an S− result will lead to virus genomic datasets that are unrepresentative of the true underlying spatiotemporal prevalence of Omicron. To provide adequate context for genome sequences, depositors to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) database should use the newly introduced nonmandatory “sampling strategy” field to note how cases are selected and sampled for virus genome sequencing, including whether samples were specifically targeted for sequencing based on S− PCR results. [We have used this field to plot the first 115 Omicron submissions to GISAID, stratified by sampling strategy (8).] Virus genomic datasets then can be compiled from cases known to have been sampled randomly from a given population and analyzed to generate more-accurate estimates of Omicron’s growth relative to other variants. Standard sampling strategies include random community sampling [the preferred sampling strategy for estimating lineage growth (6, 9)], targeted surveillance of defined subpopulations (e.g., vaccine breakthrough cases or international travelers), and enhanced sampling to investigate specific outbreaks or clusters.

https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abn4543?af=R

My guess is that the ~70% figure was from raw counts of omicron vs delta in the raw sequencing data, while the ~50% figure has been corrected for the non-random sampling in the database.

 

[Rive]

battling of conflicting reports:

As I could puzzle this together, one study is about the observed severity, and says that while omicron can easily reinfect through any previous existing immunity, it still may be less severe. While if somebody had no previous encounter with vaccines or virus, then the expected 'original' severity is still ~ in the original range.
So UK may have it relative easy despite the insane speed it is spreading with, other countries with more active antivaxxer community are out of luck.

The other study is about the change in the attack focus of the virus.

 

[Rive]

Preprint: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC Transmission in Danish Households

The SAR was 31\% and 21\% in households with the Omicron and Delta VOC, respectively. We found an increased transmission for unvaccinated individuals, and a reduced transmission for booster-vaccinated individuals, compared to fully vaccinated individuals.

SAR as 'Secondary Attack Rate'
Vaccines still seems to work.

 

[pinball1970]

Globally and the UK the numbers are something we cannot argue with.

We had about 50 odd deaths yesterday and about 140 the day before so no real changes as yet from this increase here.GLOBAL

UK

 

[pinball1970]

Just to add the UKHSDA are due to release another report on 13th Jan 2022

In the meantime they do regular blogs, this thing is growing so quickly two weeks everything will have changed!

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/12/uk-daily-covid-numbers-omicron-overview.html

3/5ths less chance of hospitalization mentioned in the briefing but the blog ends with the following.

“While it is difficult, without better patient information, to speculate on the relative severity of Omicron based on these 668 hospitalizations and 50 deaths,

these numbers to suggest that some Omicron cases are seeing severe - and sometimes fatal - illness.

Some of these data reporting issues will be resolved by late next week, after the New Year's Holiday,

but the number of cases, the difficulty in identifying Omicron cases, and overwhelmed and short-staffed hospitals will likely still take their toll on data collection.”

 

[PeroK]

and overwhelmed and short-staffed hospitals will likely still take their toll on data collection.”

It's funny how the people who advocate letting COVID run its course never consider that if enough people get sick at the same time, then that is potentially worse than anti-COVID measures, because people in the health services get sick too!

 

[pinball1970]

It's funny how the people who advocate letting COVID run its course never consider that if enough people get sick at the same time, then that is potentially worse than anti-COVID measures, because people in the health services get sick too!

Yes I have flip flopped on this more than once on this.

The numbers in hospital ( link below) are going up from 18th -21st December, nearly 50%

We have had 9 days of exponential growth since then and are now at 183,000 cases today in a 24 hour period.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

40,000 cases per day pre Omicron was putting about 800 people in hospital daily.

One study suggests 60% less chance of going to hospital with Omicron, so 5 times the cases (I think we will hit 200,000 soon) we still get 3 times the admissions we had mid-December.

Assuming all these new cases are Omicron, if not the number will be higher.

We were at 4000 cases with Alpha in January and news reports said the NHS was very stretched, not just beds but staff exhaustion.

Next two weeks pretty crucial, probably a lock down after NY.

 

[nsaspook]

It's funny how the people who advocate letting COVID run its course never consider that if enough people get sick at the same time, then that is potentially worse than anti-COVID measures, because people in the health services get sick too!

I think that most believe in utilizing the limited medical resources to optimize good outcomes of those most at risk. Omicron is removing the choice of 'letting' into 'forcing' a running of the course.

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/article-689998

Omicron wave will only end after masses are infected - analysis
Israel has no plan to stop the Omicron wave, which has already swept across the country.

“The fifth wave might end when a large number of people will be infected,” said Prof. Cyrille Cohen, head of the immunology lab at Bar-Ilan University. “Only through natural exposure when protected with vaccines do I see this virus becoming endemic.”

The first and second waves ended when Israel locked down, stopping the spread of the virus but causing severe damage to the country’s economy and people’s mental and emotional health.

“Because Omicron is so contagious, our efforts to stop its spread are probably pretty futile,” said Prof. Hagai Levine, chairman of the Israeli Association of Public Health Physicians. “We are not going to stop this wave.

“What we can and should try to do is protect the most vulnerable as much as possible.”

 

[Astronuc]

Federal data shows the nation is now reporting an average of more than 277,000 new cases a day, shattering the previous record of 250,000 cases per day from last January.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/us-sh...s-experts-predict-infection/story?id=81991897

Over the last month, the U.S. daily case average has tripled, and the nation has reported more than 1.9 million new cases in the last week alone -- an average of about three Americans testing positive for COVID-19 every second.

According to the video "Pediatric hospitalizations have doubled in the last month." A following video mentions, 200,000 children have tested positive for SARS-Cov-2, an increase of ~50% since the beginning of December, and more than 2100 children are hospitalized with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19, and NY State has more children hospitalized for COVID than for any other state.

Across the country, more than 84,000 Americans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 -- up by 40,000 patients in the last seven weeks. On average, more than 9,400 Americans are being admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 every day, up by nearly 20% in the last week.

NY State published their data early today. 74,207 new positive cases and another 76 deaths, including one child in the 0-9 year age group.

The state [Florida] on Wednesday reported 46,923 new cases from Tuesday, as the omicron surge nearly doubled Florida's previous peak over the summer. The state, which broke the record for new daily infections that was just set on Christmas Eve, is now averaging more than 30,300 new Covid-19 cases a day, according to data tracked by The Washington Post - second in the nation to New York.

. . .

More than 4,400 people in Florida are hospitalized with covid, including 498 in the intensive care unit. While the hospitalization rate has increased by more than 100% compared to last week, Pushaw argued that "the percentage of cases requiring hospitalization as of now is lower overall than we saw with previous variants."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-shatters-record-coronavirus-cases-194649707.html

 

[PeroK]

For the record, there are record numbers of cases across a lot of western Europe now: UK, France, Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Denmark, Ireland, Switzerland . Germany is the main exception.

In the past, deaths have followed about two weeks later, so we'll need to wait and see.

 

[chemisttree]

Are deaths reported as “death with Covid” or “death from Covid”? Could all be artifacts.
Same with hospitalization… Covid-caused hospitalization vs Covid associated hospitalization.

 

[valenumr]

Hawaii reported almost 3500 new cases today after a holiday / weekend lull. An estimated 1.5 percent of the island population has active covid. Regardless of the comparative virulence of omicron, the numbers are having a substantial impact: https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus/h...affect-staffing-levels-across-industries/amp/

 

[PeroK]

Are deaths reported as “death with Covid” or “death from Covid”? Could all be artifacts.
Same with hospitalization… Covid-caused hospitalization vs Covid associated hospitalization.

As far as I am aware, all the figures from the UK are Deaths and Hospitalisations with COVID. In the extreme case, if you test positive and die in a car accident, then you're counted as a death with COVID.

Clearly this has the potential problem that IF everyone gets a mild form of COVID, then everyone who dies has COVID and the figures will be subverted. I can see this as a problem in the months to come. And, we might have to rethink how we count COVID deaths.

 

[chemisttree]

In the UK they track the cause of hospitalization as well as the number admitted with Covid. As of December 21, 80% of Covid positive admissions were for something other than Covid, termed incidental.

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...hould-treated-caution-many-patients-admitted/

I wish our CDC did as good a job. Our data is so suspect, it is difficult to say what is actually happening.

 

[atyy]

In the UK they track the cause of hospitalization as well as the number admitted with Covid. As of December 21, 80% of Covid positive admissions were for something other than Covid, termed incidental.

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...hould-treated-caution-many-patients-admitted/

I wish our CDC did as good a job. Our data is so suspect, it is difficult to say what is actually happening.

Yes, the UK does a superb job of releasing data. But the Telegraph report is erroneous. Most admissions were for COVID, and were not incidental. John Roberts has a simple example explaining a related error by Mail Online.

 

[chemisttree]

Where is s John getting his numbers? A “scenario” isn’t data?

 

[StevieTNZ]

It doesn't surprise me the case numbers in the US @/or A are high given you've got people like this roaming around --

 

[pinball1970]

Today, NY State reports 67,090 new positive COVID-19 cases, exceeding the previous daily record of 49,708 positive cases set 4 days ago. The state also reports 99 new deaths, including a child/youth (10-19) and another young adult (20-29), since the day before (there were 6 deaths in this age group since Dec 20, 8 days ago). The variant is not mentioned on conjunction with the new deaths. This represents a significant increase in mortality in those two age groups.

Edit/update: Using two sources from NY State,

                12/27   Pct     12/28     11/28   Diff
Statewide Total 48,150  100    48,249    46,484  1,765
Unknown              9      
90 and Over      7,520  15.6    7,530     7,320    210
80 to 89        12,861  26.7   12,882    12,469    413
70 to 79        12,465  25.9   12,492    11,992    500
60 to 69         8,798  18.3    8,817     8,460    357
50 to 59         4,168   8.7    4,181     4,011    170
40 to 49         1,482   3.1    1,489     1,426     63
30 to 39           620   1.3      620       587     33
20 to 29           189   0.4      190       176     14
10 to 19            21     0       22        17      5
 0 to  9            17     0       17        17      0

The last column shows the number of deaths in one month, 11/28 - 12/28. Many or most deaths in the younger age groups have occurred during the last week. So, the mortality rate seems to have increased significantly.

We are approaching Feb/March numbers.
332 deaths yesterday the highest since March. Last week the average was around 112.
About 190,000 cases in 24 hours also.
Everywhere is open no one is wearing a mask except on public transport and then not all.
New year's Eve today as I am sure are aware.

 

[artis]

Are deaths reported as “death with Covid” or “death from Covid”? Could all be artifacts.
Same with hospitalization… Covid-caused hospitalization vs Covid associated hospitalization.

This was also the shortcoming in my country at first they pretty much counted everyone under Covid death category who died and also had a positive test at or before death.
I may stand corrected but I think that you don't die from Covid itself just as you don't die from the flu, you die from the more serious side effects that some get after or during the infection.
The only way to accurately count deaths would be to actually only label "Covid death" those people who actually had a Covid infection related health problem.
I know a woman , relative, who died from cancer , she was already on her last minutes and then Covid came. They labeled her as Covid death simply because of the positive test. In fact Covid had next to nothing to do with her passing.

But then you run into problems with those folks that have serious long term preexisting conditions and then due to Covid the condition worsens and the person dies, technically without Covid they may have lived a couple more years so you have to count them as Covid victims.

I hope the way statistics is made has been updated and is more precise as we move on.

 

[PeroK]

I hope the way statistics is made has been updated and is more precise as we move on.

There is no perfect answer to this. The reasons for death are too complex in general.

 

[pinball1970]

This was also the shortcoming in my country at first they pretty much counted everyone under Covid death category who died and also had a positive test at or before death.
I may stand corrected but I think that you don't die from Covid itself just as you don't die from the flu, you die from the more serious side effects that some get after or during the infection.
The only way to accurately count deaths would be to actually only label "Covid death" those people who actually had a Covid infection related health problem.
I know a woman , relative, who died from cancer , she was already on her last minutes and then Covid came. They labeled her as Covid death simply because of the positive test. In fact Covid had next to nothing to do with her passing.

But then you run into problems with those folks that have serious long term preexisting conditions and then due to Covid the condition worsens and the person dies, technically without Covid they may have lived a couple more years so you have to count them as Covid victims.

I hope the way statistics is made has been updated and is more precise as we move on.

The pathologists do have a good crack at this. Also the stat guys do adjustments based EXTRA deaths in a year by year month basis going back around 5 years. There is a biostatistics on here, pretty sure he explained this was it? @StatGuy2000