COVID Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[Astronuc]

The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg had headlines yesterday that indicated that 73% of new Covid infections are Omicron. I'm still waiting to see the different states including NY.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-to-nearly-three-quarters-of-u-s-virus-cases

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicro...73-of-u-s-covid-19-cases-cdc-says-11640040586

 

[pinball1970]

I think we need to be careful either way because there is minimal evidence of what 'mild' actually means. If 'mild' means a simple reduction of sickness and death by some set factor that's one thing but if 'mild' really means equivalent to a non-serious 'cold' in most vaccinated people that's a different set of numbers

12 deaths in the UK so far (EDIT 14 deaths)

https://assets.publishing.service.g...042543/20211220_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdfSouth Africa looking more optimistic

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...9-hospitalisations-fall-sharply-south-africa/

 

[Evo]

So, with so many more people getting Covid now, does this mean that there are so many more opportunities for Covid to mutate into another possibly more lethal variant again?

 

[BillTre]

So, with so many more people getting Covid now, does this mean that there are so many more opportunities for Covid to mutate into another possibly more lethal variant again?

Yes. More virus reproducing, more opportunities for changes to occur.

However, not all opportunities are equally productive in making new versions of virus.
An explanation proposed for new versions (that have accumulated a lot of genetic changes, and thus have new properties), is that they were able to reproduce, for long periods of time, within a single person. South Africa, supposedly, with lots of untreated HIV patients, would have a lot of people with a poorly functioning immune system where a virus could survive a long time.

Some would argue that this would be a more opportune oportunity for a virus to make big genetic changes.

 

[Astronuc]

New York State and CDC (for Region 2) have reported SARS-Cov-2 Variants for two weeks and the week ending 18-Dec, respectively. NY State reports on a two week basis. I'm trying to reconcile the different numbers for Omicron. New York reports 11.1% of cases being Omicron, 88.5% Delta. However, for the week ending 11-Dec, CDC reports Region 2 as 25.4% Omicron, 74.2% Delta and for the week ending 18-Dec, Region 2 has 92% Omicron, 7.9% Delta. Is there are measurement bias?

New York is seeing more deaths in the 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, which have increased during the last month.

 

[Tom.G]

Is there are measurement bias?

I have not looked at the actual numbers but it seems easily explained. As the Omicron variant is becoming dominant, most new infections are Omicron.
∴ Higher percentage of Omicron when ignoring the previous week.

Cheers,
Tom

 

[pinball1970]

I have not looked at the actual numbers but it seems easily explained. As the Omicron variant is becoming dominant, most new infections are Omicron.
∴ Higher percentage of Omicron when ignoring the previous week.

Cheers,
Tom

Less than 2000 cases ten days ago and as of December 19th we have 45,000.
So far the cases in hospital seem to be steady. A slight rise only.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Looking at the numbers, variants, end of/lockdowns and jab % since Jan it looks like two jabs kept Delta at bay in terms of deaths/hospital so three to keep the numbers down with Omicron? Especially if it is not as severe?

44% of population now boosted which is fast, they should have pushed like this for jabs one and two especially for younger adults.

 

[pinball1970]

I have not looked at the actual numbers but it seems easily explained. As the Omicron variant is becoming dominant, most new infections are Omicron.
∴ Higher percentage of Omicron when ignoring the previous week.

Cheers,
Tom

As an aside but also related Spanish flu 1918 had four waves and lasted just over two years.
We are now at wave or rather main variant 5 with COVID19? Two years.

 

[Astronuc]

As the Omicron variant is becoming dominant, most new infections are Omicron.
∴ Higher percentage of Omicron when ignoring the previous week.

Yes, I agree with the dramatic increase, I'm trying to reconcile the CDC Region 2 reporting 92% Omicron as compared to NY State, which heavily weights in Region 2, at 11% Omicron for the two week period ending 18-December. I'd like to know more about the measurements and weighted averaging.

Edit/Update: NY State just reported a new daily record of positive cases: 28924, exceeding the previous record of 23392 set two days ago.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/briefing/omicron-severity-afghanistan-aid-libya.html

Two new studies suggest that Omicron infections more often result in mild illness compared with previous variants of the coronavirus, offering hope that the current surge may be less catastrophic than feared.

The research, conducted in Britain and released on Wednesday, indicated that Omicron was less likely to put people in hospitals. One study looked at hospital admissions for the Delta and Omicron variants in November and December and found a two-thirds reduction in the risk of hospitalization. A separate analysis looked at Omicron and Delta cases in the first two weeks of December and saw a smaller reduction in hospital visits.
...
“What you’ve heard is a qualified good-news story,” said Dr. Jim McMenamin, incident director for Covid-19 at Public Health Scotland. But he warned that hospitals could still be filled because of the rate of transmission.

https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/pu...variant-of-concern-and-vaccine-effectiveness-

Findings
The first case of Omicron confirmed by viral sequencing was recorded in Scotland on November 23, 2021, By December 19, 2021, there were 23,840 S gene negative cases. These S gene negative cases were predominantly in the age group 20-39 (11,732; 49.2%). The proportion of S gene negative cases that were possible reinfections was more than 10 times that of S gene positive (7.6%
versus 0.7%). There were 15 hospital admissions in those S gene negative giving an adjusted observed/expected ratio of 0.32 (95% CI 0.19, 0.52). The third/booster vaccine dose was associated with a 57% (95% CI 55, 60) reduction in the risk of symptomatic S gene negative symptomatic infection relative to ≥25 weeks post second dose.

Interpretation
These early national data suggest that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta. Whilst offering the greatest protection against Delta, the third/booster dose of vaccination offers substantial additional protection against the risk of symptomatic COVID-19 for Omicron when compared to ≥25 weeks post second vaccine dose.

 

[Phil Core]

Some real science would be an explanation of how Omicron infects and multiplies **70 times faster** than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human.

 

[PeroK]

Some real science would be an explanation of how Omicron infects and multiplies **70 times faster** than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human.

Are you sure that's not 70% faster?

 

[pinball1970]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/briefing/omicron-severity-afghanistan-aid-libya.htmlhttps://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/pu...variant-of-concern-and-vaccine-effectiveness-

This alert today.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03829-0
Some publications are saying severe disease is reduced and others seem to be more pessimistic.

 

[Phil Core]

Are you sure that's not 70% faster?

This study states 70 times faster. It is unclear exactly how this is being measured.

https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/pres...utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=press_release

"A study led by researchers from the LKS Faculty of Medicine at The University of Hong Kong (HKUMed) provides the first information on how the novel Variant of Concern (VOC) of SARS-CoV-2, the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infect human respiratory tract. The researchers found that Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infects and multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human bronchus, which may explain why Omicron may transmit faster between humans than previous variants. Their study also showed that the Omicron infection in the lung is significantly lower than the original SARS-CoV-2, which may be an indicator of lower disease severity. This research is currently under peer review for publication."

Seems to suggest that Omicron has increased binding efficiency. Possible areas of inquiry would be surface polarity and/or shape. With change in shape making the major contribution.

 

[PeroK]

It is unclear exactly how this is being measured.

Precisely!

For example, let's say virus A doubles every hour and virus B doubles every two hours. After two hours virus A has twice the development of virus A; after four hours, it has four times the development; and, after twelve hours it has 64 times the development. It will take virus B a further 12 hours to reach that stage.

Does virus A multiply twice as fast as virus B; or 64 times as fast in 12 hours?

 

[pinball1970]

Precisely!

For example, let's say virus A doubles every hour and virus B doubles every two hours. After two hours virus A has twice the development of virus A; after four hours, it has four times the development; and, after twelve hours it has 64 times the development. It will take virus B a further 12 hours to reach that stage.

Does virus A multiply twice as fast as virus B; or 64 times as fast in 12 hours?

Delta is about R =5? Omicron similar from a couple of news items so I am not sure how that works. It must be higher right?

 

[PeroK]

Delta is about R =5? Omicron similar from a couple of news items so I am not sure how that works. It must be higher right?

My point was an mathematical one. That it's easy to find ways of looking at data that makes things sound more dramatic. The 70 times, as far as I can see, relates to how quickly things get started. But, as I showed, if you double the exponential growth rate, then a factor of 70 might appear quite quickly. And, that may not be of great practical significance.

 

[Rive]

**70 times faster** than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human.

vs.

Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infects and multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human bronchus

The statement is about a specific tissue and not about the general picture. According to the paper in the same time Omicron multiplies >10 times slower in lung tissue. These data alone says nothing about the amount of viruses shedded.

For me this tells about a change of focus: and with three points alread, it hints a certain tendency.

 

[pinball1970]

My point was an mathematical one. That it's easy to find ways of looking at data that makes things sound more dramatic. The 70 times, as far as I can see, relates to how quickly things get started. But, as I showed, if you double the exponential growth rate, then a factor of 70 might appear quite quickly. And, that may not be of great practical significance.

What is the best way to illustrate this? Mathematically? Can you assign a function to the curve based on its R value? Presumably that's how teams like ICL could give estimates last year? Or I am asking a simple question that requires a lot more behind it?

 

[PeroK]

What is the best way to illustrate this? Mathematically? Can you assign a function to the curve based on its R value? Presumably that's how teams like ICL could give estimates last year? Or I am asking a simple question that requires a lot more behind it?

It's more about a certain integrity in looking for the data that really matters. This seems to be incidental data about the way the virus develops making a dramatic headline.

 

[PeroK]

This alert today.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03829-0
Some publications are saying severe disease is reduced and others seem to be more pessimistic.

To be honest, there may not be not much we can do now but wait and hope! We are up to 120,000 cases today; France is up to over 90,000 and Italy is up to 45,000. Omicron is probably effectively uncontrollable. All we can do is hope that it isn't too deadly and try to weather the storm.

 

[valenumr]

Precisely!

For example, let's say virus A doubles every hour and virus B doubles every two hours. After two hours virus A has twice the development of virus A; after four hours, it has four times the development; and, after twelve hours it has 64 times the development. It will take virus B a further 12 hours to reach that stage.

Does virus A multiply twice as fast as virus B; or 64 times as fast in 12 hours?

Wouldn't that just be 6 times as fast over 12 hours?

 

[Astronuc]

To be honest, there may not be not much we can do now but wait and hope! We are up to 120,000 cases today; France is up to over 90,000 and Italy is up to 45,000. Omicron is probably effectively uncontrollable. All we can do is hope that it isn't too deadly and try to weather the storm.

New York State just reported an all time record high of daily positive cases, 38,835, or almost 10k more than the previous day.

Other states are seeing similar rapid increases.

The State of Tennessee identified nearly 2700 deaths due to or involving COVID-19, so they have increase their tally from about 18,000 to 20,644.

In Houston, Texas, authorities have reported a death from COVID-19 involving the Omicron variant. The man in his 50s had a previous COVID infection, which apparently did not provide sufficient natural immunity, or perhaps previous damage due to an earlier variant rendered his system unable to cope with Omicron. The man was unvaccinated and had a pre-existing condition, which I interpret as a comorbidity, which is the case for many of the deaths.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...algo/285-a251bc25-d2b8-4419-9058-bb2920742855

Houston Methodist said Monday that 82% of its new cases are omicron after just three weeks of testing for it. It took delta three months to reach that point.

 

[valenumr]

Wouldn't that just be 6 times as fast over 12 hours?

Eh, that joke isn't as funny as it sounded in my head. I would say that the correct approach is to look at the rate of change, i.e, the derivative of the population count data for fit doesn't matter if it is linear or quadratic or exponential. So in your example, twice as fast.

 

[valenumr]

New York State just reported an all time record high of daily positive cases, 38,835, or almost 10k more than the previous day.

Other states are seeing similar rapid increases.

The State of Tennessee identified nearly 2700 deaths due to or involving COVID-19, so they have increase their tally from about 18,000 to 20,644.

In Houston, Texas, authorities have reported a death from COVID-19 involving the Omicron variant. The man in his 50s had a previous COVID infection, which apparently did not provide sufficient natural immunity, or perhaps previous damage due to an earlier variant rendered his system unable to cope with Omicron. The man was unvaccinated and had a pre-existing condition, which I interpret as a comorbidity, which is the case for many of the deaths.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...algo/285-a251bc25-d2b8-4419-9058-bb2920742855

1511 here today, which is close to the pandemic peak of like 1580. Previous 3 day average was around 750.

 

[nsaspook]

To be honest, there may not be not much we can do now but wait and hope! We are up to 120,000 cases today; France is up to over 90,000 and Italy is up to 45,000. Omicron is probably effectively uncontrollable. All we can do is hope that it isn't too deadly and try to weather the storm.

I'm also hoping the peak will be extremely sharp on the down-turn world-wide as omicron gains domination.
https://thehill.com/changing-americ...uth-africa-ground-zero-for-omicron-now-seeing

“If previous variants caused waves shaped like Kilimanjaro, omicron’s is more like we were scaling the North Face of Everest,” said Karim.

It looks like we will get lots of “natural immunity” from the omicron variant, the 'hard way'.

 

[Astronuc]

New York State just reported an all time record high of daily positive cases, 38,835, or almost 10k more than the previous day.

New York State set yet another record of for new daily positive cases, 44,431 cases. Deaths during the previos two days were 70 and 71, up from an average of 60 per day. Yesterday, the number included three deaths of people in their 20s (20-29), none in their 30s, five in their 40s (40-49), four in their 50s (50-59). The 60+ population still accounts for most fatalities. It's not clear that Omicron is responsible for an increase in mortality, since Delta has been prevalent until Omicron took off.

 

[PeroK]

New York State set yet another record of for new daily positive cases, 44,431 cases. Deaths during the previos two days were 70 and 71, up from an average of 60 per day. Yesterday, the number included three deaths of people in their 20s (20-29), none in their 30s, five in their 40s (40-49), four in their 50s (50-59). The 60+ population still accounts for most fatalities. It's not clear that Omicron is responsible for an increase in mortality, since Delta has been prevalent until Omicron took off.

There are record numbers of cases worldwide. According to this site, there were 980,000 cases worldwide yesterday. That's the highest ever. Although, total deaths are below 8,000. Also, countries such as the UK, Ireland, Denmark, Australia and others are reporting their highest ever daily totals.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[valenumr]

There are record numbers of cases worldwide. According to this site, there were 980,000 cases worldwide yesterday. That's the highest ever. Although, total deaths are below 8,000. Also, countries such as the UK, Ireland, Denmark, Australia and others are reporting their highest ever daily totals.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1828 here today. 19.6 percent test positivity. The situation is deteriorating quickly. Also it is being reported that many flights are being canceled as air crew are out with covid. I've already seen several local businesses shut down due to staff Covid issues.

 

[PeroK]

1828 here today. 19.6 percent test positivity. The situation is deteriorating quickly. Also it is being reported that many flights are being canceled as air crew are out with covid. I've already seen several local businesses shut down due to staff Covid issues.

Even if people are not dying or going to hospital, they are not able to go to work.