COVID Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[pinball1970]

Admittedly mortality statistics is not my area of expertise. That being said, I am aware that determining cause of death is typically based on the primary medical condition that can be linked to the mortality cases. The tricky issue is when a particular patient with a serious co-morbid condition (e.g. cancer) contracts COVID-19 and then subsequently dies. It is possible that cause of death could be listed as both cancer and COVID-19.

Are there adjustments made to account for extra deaths? I'm not entirely certain about this.

This kind of approach. 29 countries. The methods are too technical for me
NZ does well though, I understood that much!

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1137

 

[pinball1970]

As an aside regarding Omicron, a few colleagues had COVID19 over Xmas. In their 30s jabbed and boosted.
Colleague one said it was like a cold, runny nose and sore throat. No headache, fever, aches and she did not feel ill as such.
Colleague two felt bad for 72 hours then ok. Mild flu.
Anecdotal.
Today our PM has given instructions to frontline workers in terms of testing BUT No lock down (yet) BBC briefing today at 6.00pm.
218,000 cases in 24 hours with 54 deaths.
Thursday is usually the highest for cases, numbers, hospital and deaths.
Usually.

 

[pinball1970]

Well in my case having the Pfizer shot gave me a renewed long Covid , just a bit smaller and shorter and with different symptoms than the one I had after the real infection so I guess the outcomes vary.

Did you read the paper Artis?

 

[artis]

Did you read the paper Artis?

Which of them all? I wasn't saying what I said based on a paper I was just reading the posts of vaccines curing long Covid from currently "anecdotal" evidence and just wrote down my own "anecdotal" evidence. But you know that story already since we have talked about it here.
But please can you refer me to the paper you had in mind , the particular one?

 

[pinball1970]

Which of them all? I wasn't saying what I said based on a paper I was just reading the posts of vaccines curing long Covid from currently "anecdotal" evidence and just wrote down my own "anecdotal" evidence. But you know that story already since we have talked about it here.
But please can you refer me to the paper you had in mind , the particular one?

These on how they calculate excess deaths.

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1137

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

This article on long COVID19 and auto immune antibodies

https://news.yahoo.com/virus-leaves-antibodies-may-attack-204240584.html

 

[Astronuc]

The Omicron variant may not be attacking the lungs as severely as Delta or other variants, but it apparently is still making some people (those with other illnesses/diseases) quite ill, and some potentially fatally so.

There were 5,495 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in New York City, as of Monday, official statistics show — four times the amount from two weeks ago and higher than any point since May 2020.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...-a-different-way-an-er-doctor-says/ar-AASsrPq
I can't readily find numbers for the rest of the state. In the published data, since the beginning of 2022, New York State has reported deaths in lowest age groups (0-9, 10-19, 20-23), which was rare during the last two years. It remains to be seen if the mortality of children, youth and young adults has increased this month.

Elsewhere, Mucio Kit Delgado, assistant professor in Emergency Medicine at Penn Presbyterian Medical Center emergency department, said on Twitter on Monday that he had seen a "strikingly consistent pattern" in symptoms based on vaccination status.

Delgado said that he "hardly saw anyone who had gotten a booster because if they caught COVID-19 they're likely at home doing fine or having regular cold/flu-like symptoms."

Meanwhile, when people were vaccinated but not boosted, he said he found many patients were "wiped out, dehydrated and febrile." Delgado said that people who were older than 55 or had other medical problems were often admitted overnight for intravenous fluids and "supportive care", but usually went home within a day or two.

Finally, Delgado said that in his experience, unvaccinated people were "the folks that get sick and had to be hospitalized because they need oxygen." "Some even younger than me," he said.

So, get vaccinated and boosted!

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I can't readily find numbers for the rest of the state.

Here's the CDC data for new hospital admissions in New York state, which shows the state is currently experiencing the highest levels of patients with COVID-19 (since Aug 2020):

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions

In the published data, since the beginning of 2022, New York State has reported deaths in lowest age groups (0-9, 10-19, 20-23), which was rare during the last two years. It remains to be seen if the mortality of children, youth and young adults has increased this month.

CDC mortality data (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographicsovertime) says there is a potential six week delay in reporting, so we may have to wait to get reliable estimates on the mortality of the current Omicron wave. The NY state hospitalization data above, however, shows an increase in hospitalizations for ages 0-17, which was not observed during the wave last winter.

 

[Astronuc]

Here's the CDC data for new hospital admissions in New York state, which shows the state is currently experiencing the highest levels of patients with COVID-19 (since Aug 2020):

I found the hopitalization data for NYS, but not by age group.
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary
As of yesterday, there were 10,411 Covid patients hospitalized, with 5,495 in NY City (52.8% of state total), the hardest hit area. So I was premature in my previous post, I could find the numbers, but not by age group.

For mortality - https://health.data.ny.gov/Health/New-York-State-Statewide-COVID-19-Fatalities-by-Ag/du97-svf7/data - but that is just those died under some kind of medical/patient/elder care. There is nearly 13,000 others who died outside of a medical or care facility that aren't included in the statistics.

 Fatalities (Cumulative values) ascribed to COVID (SARS-Cov-2)
Age group   12/01  12/31  12/03
 30 to 39    590    625    630
 20 to 29    177    191    195
 10 to 19     17     22     24
  0 to  9     17     18     19

In early December, the lowest three age groups were at 17, 17, 177 until 12/06, when someone in the 10-19 age group died. Toward late September, the mortality rate increased. And the rates increased further during the first 3 days of January. Particularly in the 0-9 and 10-19 age groups. While young folk are less vulnerable, they are still vulnerable, especially if unvaccinated, which was the case for the youngest age groups until recently, when vaccines were authorized/approved for 5-11.

 

[chemisttree]

Artis seems on point to me.

 

[pinball1970]

Artis seems on point to me.

You can 'catch covid' with the Vaccines, that's not the issue.
Long COVID19, severe cases and deaths are reduced vaccinated in every age group.

 

[chemisttree]

You have heard of Tamiflu or XOFLUZA?
Flu is a good model, BTW. We generally treat symptoms as well as vaccinate. In the years that the flu vaccine is not very effective, the most effective way to deal with it is to do non pharm interventions like mask wearing, washing hands etc…

I think Artis was talking about treating with monoclonal antibodies?

 

[Astronuc]

Also we do not treat viral flu infections with drugs. Not at the minute,

We do have drug treatments for influenza. I was prescribed, and I took, Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate), which arrested my symptoms due to influenza within 24 hours. That was the one year in the last 10 that I didn't get vaccinated.

Oseltamivir is used to treat some types of influenza infection ('flu') in adults, children, and infants (older than 2 weeks of age) who have had symptoms of the flu for no longer than 2 days. I received Tamiflu within 24 hours of onset of symptoms. It is better to be vaccinated than to become infected, since the infection means inflammation of tissue, e.g., cardio-pulmonary system, which may shorten, or end, one's life.

Oseltamivir is in a class of medications called neuraminidase inhibitors. It works by stopping the spread of the flu virus in the body. Oseltamivir helps shorten the time that flu symptoms such as a stuffy or runny nose, sore throat, cough, muscle or joint aches, tiredness, headache, fever, and chills last. Oseltamivir will not prevent bacterial infections, which may occur as a complication of the flu.

I'm not familiar with https://www.googleadservices.com/pagead/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwjQ-rGgtZv1AhXoYnIKHS8yAPAYABABGgJxdQ&ohost=www.google.com&cid=CAASE-Ro-mPoBY90a93xpgkoatf5tYI&sig=AOD64_3k9juhTxtTu1Sp0KXGSLC_IJE4fg&adurl=&q=. It's relatively new.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/treatment/baloxavir-marboxil.htm

I've been getting the influenza vaccine for some time now in order to protect my mother-in-law, my parents, my children, and now my wife, who has also been getting influenza for some time, since she was her mother's primary caregiver, until her mother was confined to an elder care facility and subsequently died (old age, and about as natural as one who basically gives up on living and stops eating and drinking). My wife and I, and our adult children, have all received the SARS-Cov-2 vaccines and boosters, and we get the influenza vaccine annually as well.

 

[pinball1970]

You have heard of Tamiflu or XOFLUZA?
Flu is a good model, BTW. We generally treat symptoms as well as vaccinate. In the years that the flu vaccine is not very effective, the most effective way to deal with it is to do non pharm interventions like mask wearing, washing hands etc…

I think Artis was talking about treating with monoclonal antibodies?

Yes. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4701
Is this still relevant?
And this? https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20211229/the-new-covid-antiviral-pills-what-you-need-to-know

 

[Ygggdrasil]

You can 'catch covid' with the Vaccines, that's not the issue.
Long COVID19, severe cases and deaths are reduced vaccinated in every age group.

I am aware of several sources of data showing that severe cases and deaths are reduced by the vaccine (e.g. the vaccine clinical trials and various real world observational studies), but I don't think I've seen the data about vaccination reducing the incidence of long COVID. Do you have a link to the study showing this data?

 

[Astronuc]

Expect to see more articles about influenza and SARS-Cov-2 co-infection, "Coronavirus and influenza co-infections reported as omicron surges."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ections-reported-as-omicron-surges/ar-AASsMzp

Staff at UMass Memorial Medical Center say their Intensive Care Unit is at capacity after the holidays as the Omicron variant continues spreading throughout the United States.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...icu-at-capacity-as-omicron-spreads/vi-AASrqCc

 

[pinball1970]

I am aware of several sources of data showing that severe cases and deaths are reduced by the vaccine (e.g. the vaccine clinical trials and various real world observational studies), but I don't think I've seen the data about vaccination reducing the incidence of long COVID. Do you have a link to the study showing this data?

Article not a paper. I'll post

 

[russ_watters]

You can 'catch covid' with the Vaccines...

But not from the vaccine.

[Deleted quote from another member]

There's some wiggle room in that wording, meaning you are claiming either the vaccine gave you "long covid" or worsened an existing condition. To be clear, "long covid" is not a Covid infection, it's failure of damage to quickly heal, with long-term symptoms. Vaccine reactions may have similarities in symptoms, but the vaccine can't give you covid, much less "long covid".

I currently have "long throat infection" on top of "long sinus infection" but it would not be accurate to say the throat infection caused the sinus infection to come back, even though the symptom is the same (dry cough).

 

[Tom.G]

"...long covid" is not a Covid infection, it's failure of damage to quickly heal, with long-term symptoms.

https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...d-rest-of-body-up-to-8-months-so-far.1010650/

 

[pinball1970]

But not from the vaccine.

What I was getting at is that whilst vaccinated the virus can still get into your body, all you have to do is be in close contact with an individual who has the virus.
I was not suggesting the vaccine gives you covid.

 

[artis]

Even though my original post is now gone, and some raised alarms over it, I can and want to say that I was unclear in what I said and therefore got taken out of context ,
@russ_watters @pinball1970 No I do not think and have never thought that you can catch Covid from the vaccine. Clearly the vaccine does not have the full virus parts in it to be able to do anything like that.
So I hope we won't have to come back to this point and I;m sorry for being lazy about my wording.

You have heard of Tamiflu or XOFLUZA?
Flu is a good model, BTW. We generally treat symptoms as well as vaccinate. In the years that the flu vaccine is not very effective, the most effective way to deal with it is to do non pharm interventions like mask wearing, washing hands etc…

I think Artis was talking about treating with monoclonal antibodies?

It seems you have understood my now deleted post the way I actually meant it.
Yes my opinion was along the lines of Dr. Pollard in that we once tried to catch Covid , (catch as in get on top and stop it) with the vaccination program , clearly due to various factors like slow rollout at certain places, hesitancy , and leakiness of the vaccine itself we now understand that we won't be able to eradicate Covid by simply vaccinating so it seems that a combination of herd immunity/infection and vaccination will be the future. I said that adding to this maybe we should focus on a variety of good ways to have certain drugs at our disposal and have them cheap if possible to be able to treat Covid so that it is mild and short even for the vulnerable, therefore also limiting the risk of new bad mutations coming along.
Also I check the local Covid statistic and some from the vulnerable risk group are dying even with the vaccination so they too would probably benefit from an additional shield in case they get the infection
They used remdesivir here and still do but in limited numbers both due to the nature of the drug and mostly due to cost

It seems that what happened with Omicron is that as we were still in the process of vaccination it just came along most likely from a patient or patients that were not vaccinated , it seems to me that if we only rely on vaccination we will still not be able to reach the full scope of people (also due to hesitancy) who are at risk of getting Covid (everyone essentially) and therefore the risk of new variant coming along is still high. Maybe having good antiviral drugs that can treat infection and make it short/shorter could help us in this regard.
Basically it would do no harm for us to have a first aid kit type of solution where we have such drugs "on the shelf" at our disposal whenever we need them being given by a family doctor or at hospitals etc.
The key takeaway here is to have a treatment that is easy to use and widely available , indeed I agree with @Astronuc that whenever the flu vaccine "misses" having a TAMIFLU or another drug helps and goes along way. I've used such myself and they have helped a great deal.

 

[StatGuy2000]

The Omicron variant may not be attacking the lungs as severely as Delta or other variants, but it apparently is still making some people (those with other illnesses/diseases) quite ill, and some potentially fatally so.https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...-a-different-way-an-er-doctor-says/ar-AASsrPq
I can't readily find numbers for the rest of the state. In the published data, since the beginning of 2022, New York State has reported deaths in lowest age groups (0-9, 10-19, 20-23), which was rare during the last two years. It remains to be seen if the mortality of children, youth and young adults has increased this month.
So, get vaccinated and boosted!

The province of Ontario in Canada has re-imposed public health restrictions (e.g. closing restaurants for indoor dining, closing gyms, limiting capacity in retail stores) to try to slow the spread of the Omicron variant, as well as dramatically ramping up booster shots. Other provinces in Canada have taken similar measures.

Please see below:

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/...to-modified-step-two-of-the-roadmap-to-reopen

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-...oor-dining-and-cuts-capacity-limits-1.5726162

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/...-booster-appointments-at-three-month-interval

 

[Astronuc]

The province of Ontario in Canada have re-imposed public health restrictions (e.g. closing restaurants for indoor dining, closing gyms, limiting capacity in retail stores) to try to slow the spread of the Omicron variant, as well as dramatically ramping up booster shots. Other provinces in Canada have taken similar measures.

I'm hoping/planning to visit Ontario later this year for a conference and meetings with colleagues. My wife and I also plan to visit Quebec in conjunction with research of her ancestry.

 

[kyphysics]

I MIGHT HAVE COVID NOW:

I went to get my regular A1c diabetes blood sugar test today. Woman next to me kept coughing and said she had body aches. Said she was at the doctor's office for COVID test, b/c her colleagues at her secondary school all got COVID and she was exposed. She was next to me for 45 minutes at least and chatting (sometimes to me and sometimes to people on other side of her) and coughing. I honestly considered leaving. She did honestly tell us she thought she had COVID...I am vaxed and boosted and didn't want to come back another day for my blood test...I was double-masked and kept turning my head away from her.

I have a cough now...but I don't it'd be from catching her COVID right just 30 minutes later?

 

[Astronuc]

Woman next to me kept coughing and said she had body aches. Said she was at the doctor's office for COVID test, b/c her colleagues at her secondary school all got COVID and she was exposed. She was next to me for 45 minutes at least and chatting (sometimes to me and sometimes to people on other side of her) and coughing. I honestly considered leaving. She did honestly tell us she thought she had COVID...I am vaxed and boosted and didn't want to come back another day for my blood test...

She was masked?

For ill patients, especially respiratory illnesses, my doctor's office has people call when arriving for an appointment and waiting in one's car until the staff are ready. The doctor's office does not want people in the office any longer than necessary to do whatever checks and tests are required for diagnosis. Sick patients are placed in a different wing of the doctor's office away from those getting checkups or other diagnotics who are otherwise healthy.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The key takeaway here is to have a treatment that is easy to use and widely available , indeed I agree with @Astronuc that whenever the flu vaccine "misses" having a TAMIFLU or another drug helps and goes along way. I've used such myself and they have helped a great deal.

Pfizer recently developed a protease inhibitor drug that showed about 90% efficacy at preventing hospitalization from COVID-19:

Earlier this month, Pfizer released results of a study of its treatment in 2,246 Covid patients who were at high risk of developing more severe disease because of risk factors such as being over 65, overweight, or having cardiovascular disease. Patients were randomly assigned to receive a five-day course of either Paxlovid and a second drug, ritonavir, or a placebo. Among those who received Paxlovid within five days of developing symptoms, eight, or 0.8% of the total, were hospitalized. In the placebo group, 66, or 6.3%, were hospitalized. That meant overall Paxlovid reduced the risk of hospitalization by 89%. No patients who received Paxlovid died, compared to 12 who received placebo.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/22...to-treat-covid-19-in-patients-as-young-as-12/

Unlike remdesivir, which needs to be administered intravenously, Paxlovid can be taken orally in pill form. Although the drug received FDA authorization for use as a COVID-19 treatment, supplies may be limited initially as manufacture scales up. The hope is that combined with widespread vaccination, the combination of the two could hopefully lower hospitalization and mortality rates to a level where normal, pre-pandemic life is possible again.

For more discussion of the drug see this PF thread: https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...ew-anti-viral-drugs-to-treat-covid-19.992545/
Here's a nice piece with some discussion on what Paxlovid means for the future of the pandemic: https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/pfizer-s-good-news-world-s-good-news
Here's a nice piece on the chemistry behind manufacturing Paxlovid: https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/making-paxlovid

 

[russ_watters]

I honestly considered leaving.

I probably would have and I'm pretty shocked the Dr's office didn't have a protocol for that...though, how far away is "next to me"? One seat or one exam room/curtain?

I recently needed to get tested for some covid-like symptoms (which I was 99% sure wasn't actually COVID, and it wasn't). I went to an Urgent Care center, had a 2 hour wait (in my car), and then my own curtained room so I was never near any of the many surely COVID positive patients for more than 30 seconds. But I was still nervous. Fortunately I'm past the time where I could have been infected there.

I have a cough now...but I don't it'd be from catching her COVID right just 30 minutes later?

No. But if it were me I'd be isolating and taking a rapid test every day for the next week. I also would have asked my doctor that instead of asking you.

 

[chemisttree]

Expect to see more articles about influenza and SARS-Cov-2 co-infection, "Coronavirus and influenza co-infections reported as omicron surges."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ections-reported-as-omicron-surges/ar-AASsMzp

Staff at UMass Memorial Medical Center say their Intensive Care Unit is at capacity after the holidays as the Omicron variant continues spreading throughout the United States.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...icu-at-capacity-as-omicron-spreads/vi-AASrqCc

I wonder where the Hospital ships are right now. I remember they were deployed to NYC to ease overcrowding. I wonder if they could be brought in now? Or if the current administration is even thinking along those lines?

Current position of USNS Comfort (1000- bed hospital ship) is in Norfolk, not-MA.

 

[Astronuc]

Today, NY State reported 84,202 (second highest value) new confirmed positive cases for SARS-Cov-2 and 131 deaths attributed to COVID-19, including 1 child 0-9 year age group.

So far in the first 5 days of this year the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 are as follows:

Age group   01/05/2022
90 and Over     91
80 to 89       131
70 to 79       122
60 to 69        94
50 to 59        58
40 to 49        19
30 to 39         8
20 to 29         6
10 to 19         2
 0 to  9         2
-------------------
   Total       533

Until mid December, NY State would go months without deaths in the two youngest age groups, and one or two months without deaths in the 20-29 and 30-39 age groups. That has changed to daily or every other day with the current surge of infections.

New York passed 3 million infections cumulatively on 21 Dec, 2021, and the state will pass 4 million infections on 7 January (in 18 days), if not tomorrow.

 

[valenumr]

Today, NY State reported 84,202 (second highest value) new confirmed positive cases for SARS-Cov-2 and 131 deaths attributed to COVID-19, including 1 child 0-9 year age group.

So far in the first 5 days of this year the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 are as follows:

Age group   01/05/2022
90 and Over     91
80 to 89       131
70 to 79       122
60 to 69        94
50 to 59        58
40 to 49        19
30 to 39         8
20 to 29         6
10 to 19         2
 0 to  9         2
-------------------
   Total       533

Until mid December, NY State would go months without deaths in the two youngest age groups, and one or two months without deaths in the 20-29 and 30-39 age groups. That has changed to daily or every other day with the current surge of infections.

New York passed 3 million infections cumulatively on 21 Dec, 2021, and the state will pass 4 million infections on 7 January (in 18 days), if not tomorrow.

Hawaii reported a record 4789 cases today. A full 1/3 of all cases for the past 2 years have been reported since December 12 (23 days)

 

[kyphysics]

I probably would have and I'm pretty shocked the Dr's office didn't have a protocol for that...though, how far away is "next to me"? One seat or one exam room/curtain?

I recently needed to get tested for some covid-like symptoms (which I was 99% sure wasn't actually COVID, and it wasn't). I went to an Urgent Care center, had a 2 hour wait (in my car), and then my own curtained room so I was never near any of the many surely COVID positive patients for more than 30 seconds. But I was still nervous. Fortunately I'm past the time where I could have been infected there.

This urgent care office SUCKED.

They kept the waiting room well socially distanced, but the line out the door was horrible. We stood in the winter cold for over an hour in a line out the front door and people were within 1-2 feet of each other. The woman coughing next to me was mostly 1 foot off the back of my neck. She only told her COVID story about 30-minutes after being in line and coughing and talking to us and I immediately wanted to run away from her. I thought it'd be rude, but also had already waited so long that I just wanted to get my A1c test done today, b/c I'd have to come back another day and wait yet again if I left.

No curtains, no nothing to separate the masses. Many places let you wait in the car as you take a ticket number or something. This office just let people pile into a huge line out the door that was not very socially distanced, which negates the indoor waiting room distancing. Dang woman should have SHUT UP if she thought she had COVID. Talking increases risk of spreading it. ...so, yeah, I'm nervous, given I am diabetic and all.

 

[kyphysics]

She was masked?

She was masked, but she was the WORST. Kept talking and talking and saying how Biden is ruining the country and got into conspiracy theories. If she KNEW she had body aches, was coughing, and a bunch of her secondary school teacher colleagues caught COVID, I feel she had a social-medical obligation to SHUT UP and not spread it potentially by talking.

The ONLY excuse I can think of is if COVID was warping her mind. Some drugs can make people talkative and I think COVID could maybe affect people's thinking too and maybe make them less self-aware and talkative. I recently took a drug that made me super talkative (prednisone) and my doctor and pharmacist said it's a common side-effect - it changes one's personality and even makes people sometimes get mentally confused.

It's possible COVID had a mental affect on this woman. Otherwise, she was freaking irresponsible!

 

[Hornbein]

I flunked a Covid test five days ago. I still haven't felt a thing. I'm 66 years old.

 

[russ_watters]

I flunked a Covid test five days ago. I still haven't felt a thing. I'm 66 years old.

Failing is the goal here.

Sorry, I hope it goes ok for you.

 

[hutchphd]

I flunked a Covid test five days ago. I still haven't felt a thing. I'm 66 years old.

Was this an antigen test? Please remember

1. The positive predictive value (PPV) varies with disease prevalence when interpreting results from diagnostic tests. PPV is the percent of positive test results that are true positives. As disease prevalence decreases, the percent of test results that are false positives increase.
   

   • For example, a test with 98% specificity would have a PPV of just over 80% in a population with 10% prevalence, meaning 20 out of 100 positive results would be false positives.
   • The same test would only have a PPV of approximately 30% in a population with 1% prevalence, meaning 70 out of 100 positive results would be false positives. This means that, in a population with 1% prevalence, only 30% of individuals with positive test results actually have the disease.
   • At 0.1% prevalence, the PPV would only be 4%, meaning that 96 out of 100 positive results would be false positives.
   • Health care providers should take the local prevalence into consideration when interpreting diagnostic test results.

 

[russ_watters]

This urgent care office SUCKED...

Sorry to hear that. Must be local/cultural differences. Mine was orderly and well-spaced out.

...er, well, now that I look at it, the girl behind me was crowding me!

 

[russ_watters]

Was this an antigen test? Please remember

1. The positive predictive value (PPV) varies with disease prevalence when interpreting results from diagnostic tests. PPV is the percent of positive test results that are true positives. As disease prevalence decreases, the percent of test results that are false positives increase.​

That's interesting, but that has no impact on the likelihood that an individual gets a false positive, right?

 

[BillTre]

I took my mother in-law to get tested a couple of days ago.
She made an appointment.
We waited in the car (in a car line) until someone came out and collected a sample from her without her having to get out of the car.
It is my understanding this is pretty normal around here (Eugene, Oregon).

 

[morrobay]

I flunked a Covid test five days ago. I still haven't felt a thing. I'm 66 years old.

Perhaps an antibody test could confirm this

 

[russ_watters]

I took my mother in-law to get tested a couple of days ago.
[Step 1:] She made an appointment.

That's where the process failed for me. Two months ago I had a similar scare, and made a next-day appointment with CVS. Two of them, in fact, after I decided I wanted both a rapid and PRC test. This time? Nope, a week+ out. The only appointments available were on the day in the future that just got opened for appointments. Where (what type of service provider) did she make the appointment with?

Note, online stats tell me that Oregon today is about where PA was a week ago (when I had my experience): Just starting to see a spike to double the prior highest rate of infections. Buckle-up.

 

[hutchphd]

That's interesting, but that has no impact on the likelihood that an individual gets a false positive, right?

You are absolutely correct and I should have mentioned that. But it is salient if you are worried aboutother folks being positive as a reason to get tested. Also it is difficult to generate accurate statistics for the efficacy of the test if the rate of infection is low . I do not know how good those tests are ( I don't think anyone does ) and I don't think generic testing really does much good. Get vaccinated, wear a mask (and yell at people who won't) and if you need a test for diagnostic reasons go for pcr test

 

[bhobba]

Just an update from here in Aus. It is racing through Queensland, where I am. We opened up (i.e. drastically reduced restrictions) precisely the same time as Omicron hit. We have gone from zero to over 10,000 cases a day - and rapidly climbing. At least, while some restrictions have again been introduced, like mask-wearing, it is more 'sensible' this time. For example, we were worried about people not wearing a mask while out in a small tin boat in the middle of the Brisbane river doing a bit of fishing. That is now OK. Authorities are now more worried about indoors and crowds.

People were ecstatic just before Christmas when Queensland opened up. We had families reunited, etc., and how fantastic it was. Of course, it was great for the people concerned. But as I pointed out - wait a minute, the new variant spreads ultra fast. We could have many people in isolation and not spend Christmas with family and friends. That is exactly what happened.

The following is a precis from today's local newspaper, the Courier-Mail. It is behind a paywall, so I can only give a summary.

Peter Collignon from the ANU said, "For fully vaccinated people, comparing Omicron and a "bad flu" was valid; however, the unvaccinated remained at risk of getting severely ill. If you're double vaccinated, your chances of coming into grief from Covid currently are lower than your death and complication rate in winter in the flu season. Covid, in general, had a 20-30% higher complication rate than influenza, but with vaccination, you got that down by 20%, and with Omicron, it comes down further. Once you're vaccinated, at least double vaccinated, it's in the same ballpark as a bad winter influenza season."

If true, it sounds positive. I feel better being triple vaccinated. But of course, being immunocompromised, I am taking every precaution possible, i.e. going out as little as possible, wearing a mask everywhere, getting someone to do my shopping etc.

The following may not be behind a paywall. Let me know if it is:
https://sydneynewstoday.com/omicron-may-have-the-same-health-effects-as-the-2017-flu-season/489671/

Thanks
Bill

 

[russ_watters]

You are absolutely correct and I should have mentioned that. But it is salient if you are worried about other folks being positive as a reason to get tested.

That's an interesting problem. There's more to my story:
My girlfriend traveled with family to a bigger family party on Christmas Eve. One of the kids she drove with had a little sore throat. Uh oh. When they got to the party the host gave them all at-home, rapid test strips. All negative. So 3 days later when she passed the infection on to me (my choice to take the risk), I was pretty sure it wasn't COVID...despite the fact that my GF was so sick she may as well have been run over by a truck (primary symptom: a really bad cough).

If the test had a 1% false positive rate, and there were 10 of them, the group would have had something like a 10% chance of seeing a false positive, and they all would have gone into quarantine, wrecking everyone's Christmas plans. Ok. But what if instead of an at-home party they'd have gone to a hockey game or concert with the same test at the door? To your point, that strategy wouldn't be workable; they'd basically be guaranteed to have a bunch of false positives and everyone would need quarantine regardless of if there were any actual positives or not. So, point taken.

Also it is difficult to generate accurate statistics for the efficacy of the test if the rate of infection is low . I do not know how good those tests are ( I don't think anyone does ) and I don't think generic testing really does much good.

Yeah, and believe me I looked hard for an answer to that question last week!

Get vaccinated, wear a mask (and yell at people who won't) and if you need a test for diagnostic reasons go for pcr test

Still more to the story: I probably wouldn't have even bothered to get tested if I wasn't scheduled for minor knee surgery last Thursday. But a PCR test takes 3 days to get results and rapid tests aren't accepted as proof of negativity for clinical purposes. So I waited in that line at 7:30am on my day off for nothing (I found out later that day...).

 

[kyphysics]

Sorry to hear that. Must be local/cultural differences. Mine was orderly and well-spaced out.

...er, well, now that I look at it, the girl behind me was crowding me!

Yeah, the girl crowding you was like the NORM in my office line. I will say, though, that these lines are getting to be annoying everywhere across the U.S. Everyone's going in for COVID tests, due to work requirements and exposure and doctor's offices and pharmacies are getting slammed pretty hard right now.

Hopefully, this dies down in a month or so, but I'd hate to be going in regularly. Such a waste of time standing in line!

 

[kyphysics]

. But a PCR test takes 3 days to get results and rapid tests aren't accepted as proof of negativity for clinical purposes.

Who/What does accept rapid tests right now? Anyone know?

 

[bhobba]

I will say, though, that these lines are getting to be annoying everywhere across the U.S. Everyone's going in for COVID tests, due to work requirements and exposure and doctor's offices and pharmacies are getting slammed pretty hard right now.

Same here in Brisbane and Aus in general. Except people are not socially distanced. How close they are here makes me wonder if they are superspreader events considering how long you have to wait.

See:
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/do-not-defecate-in-gardens-toilet-troubles-in-strained-testing-queues/news-story/da5f23dca8060b6c17fc535c59294a7d

This is NOT the Australia I was raised in.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

That's where the process failed for me. Two months ago I had a similar scare, and made a next-day appointment with CVS. Two of them, in fact, after I decided I wanted both a rapid and PRC test. This time? Nope, a week+ out. The only appointments available were on the day in the future that just got opened for appointments. Where (what type of service provider) did she make the appointment with?

My son was potentially exposed twice in two weeks by co-workers who tested positive. He was able to schedule a test for the next morning. The county was having low levels of cases, perhaps 10 to 20/day, and the number of active cases was falling (April) or very low (May). Now, since the beginning of the year, we have averaged more than 700 cases/day, and the number of active cases is more than 6200 (2.5 the previous maximum of last January), with 152 hospitalizations, which is close to where we were this time a year ago. We reached a peak hospitalization of 172 on 27 January, 2021. With the high number of positive cases, we'll have to see if the hospitalizations and mortality continue to increase for the next three weeks.

I don't know how long it would take to get an appointment for a test, but we can call either Walgreens or a testing lab for an appointment, and drive up. The specimen is collected outside.

 

[bhobba]

Letter sent to all staff in one of our major hospitals:

"Hi everyone -

Please be aware that we are in Tier 3 Pandemic. The entire hospital and HHS is under duress and staffing is at a minimum.

We will not have the most ideal ratios nor will we have all the support we had hoped for... however we do have each other.

Prioritise tasks. Take extra breaks; talk to each other, cry... whatever you need.

Whatever you need from me, let me know. Your hard work is appreciated.

Anyone interested in an extra shift at any time, please let us know ASAP. "

Things are really starting to get serious here.

Thanks
Bill

 

[StevieTNZ]

Glad I live in New Zealand!

 

[bhobba]

Who/What does accept rapid tests right now? Anyone know?

All I can say is what is happening here in Aus. The way it works, and this is just recently, is everyone accepts the negative of a rapid test. But if positive, you must get a PCR test immediately. Authorities had to do it because of the debacle in how long PCR tests were taking. People were defecating in gardens. It never ceases to amaze me the lack of proactive planning from many of our bureaucrats.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Glad I live in New Zealand!

I would be too.

I don't know how long it will last:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid...n-18-days-not-180/J4QEAWTPQ76CPQXDD5ZCFYYFWU/

Get your third dose ASAP. I am happy my doctor didn't even give me a choice. He said you are booked in tomorrow.

Thanks
Bill