COVID Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[Phil Core]

Some real science would be an explanation of how Omicron infects and multiplies **70 times faster** than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human.

 

[PeroK]

Some real science would be an explanation of how Omicron infects and multiplies **70 times faster** than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human.

Are you sure that's not 70% faster?

 

[pinball1970]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/briefing/omicron-severity-afghanistan-aid-libya.htmlhttps://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/pu...variant-of-concern-and-vaccine-effectiveness-

This alert today.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03829-0
Some publications are saying severe disease is reduced and others seem to be more pessimistic.

 

[Phil Core]

Are you sure that's not 70% faster?

This study states 70 times faster. It is unclear exactly how this is being measured.

https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/pres...utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=press_release

"A study led by researchers from the LKS Faculty of Medicine at The University of Hong Kong (HKUMed) provides the first information on how the novel Variant of Concern (VOC) of SARS-CoV-2, the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infect human respiratory tract. The researchers found that Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infects and multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human bronchus, which may explain why Omicron may transmit faster between humans than previous variants. Their study also showed that the Omicron infection in the lung is significantly lower than the original SARS-CoV-2, which may be an indicator of lower disease severity. This research is currently under peer review for publication."

Seems to suggest that Omicron has increased binding efficiency. Possible areas of inquiry would be surface polarity and/or shape. With change in shape making the major contribution.

 

[PeroK]

It is unclear exactly how this is being measured.

Precisely!

For example, let's say virus A doubles every hour and virus B doubles every two hours. After two hours virus A has twice the development of virus A; after four hours, it has four times the development; and, after twelve hours it has 64 times the development. It will take virus B a further 12 hours to reach that stage.

Does virus A multiply twice as fast as virus B; or 64 times as fast in 12 hours?

 

[pinball1970]

Precisely!

For example, let's say virus A doubles every hour and virus B doubles every two hours. After two hours virus A has twice the development of virus A; after four hours, it has four times the development; and, after twelve hours it has 64 times the development. It will take virus B a further 12 hours to reach that stage.

Does virus A multiply twice as fast as virus B; or 64 times as fast in 12 hours?

Delta is about R =5? Omicron similar from a couple of news items so I am not sure how that works. It must be higher right?

 

[PeroK]

Delta is about R =5? Omicron similar from a couple of news items so I am not sure how that works. It must be higher right?

My point was an mathematical one. That it's easy to find ways of looking at data that makes things sound more dramatic. The 70 times, as far as I can see, relates to how quickly things get started. But, as I showed, if you double the exponential growth rate, then a factor of 70 might appear quite quickly. And, that may not be of great practical significance.

 

[Rive]

**70 times faster** than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human.

vs.

Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infects and multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human bronchus

The statement is about a specific tissue and not about the general picture. According to the paper in the same time Omicron multiplies >10 times slower in lung tissue. These data alone says nothing about the amount of viruses shedded.

For me this tells about a change of focus: and with three points alread, it hints a certain tendency.

 

[pinball1970]

My point was an mathematical one. That it's easy to find ways of looking at data that makes things sound more dramatic. The 70 times, as far as I can see, relates to how quickly things get started. But, as I showed, if you double the exponential growth rate, then a factor of 70 might appear quite quickly. And, that may not be of great practical significance.

What is the best way to illustrate this? Mathematically? Can you assign a function to the curve based on its R value? Presumably that's how teams like ICL could give estimates last year? Or I am asking a simple question that requires a lot more behind it?

 

[PeroK]

What is the best way to illustrate this? Mathematically? Can you assign a function to the curve based on its R value? Presumably that's how teams like ICL could give estimates last year? Or I am asking a simple question that requires a lot more behind it?

It's more about a certain integrity in looking for the data that really matters. This seems to be incidental data about the way the virus develops making a dramatic headline.

 

[PeroK]

This alert today.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03829-0
Some publications are saying severe disease is reduced and others seem to be more pessimistic.

To be honest, there may not be not much we can do now but wait and hope! We are up to 120,000 cases today; France is up to over 90,000 and Italy is up to 45,000. Omicron is probably effectively uncontrollable. All we can do is hope that it isn't too deadly and try to weather the storm.

 

[valenumr]

Precisely!

For example, let's say virus A doubles every hour and virus B doubles every two hours. After two hours virus A has twice the development of virus A; after four hours, it has four times the development; and, after twelve hours it has 64 times the development. It will take virus B a further 12 hours to reach that stage.

Does virus A multiply twice as fast as virus B; or 64 times as fast in 12 hours?

Wouldn't that just be 6 times as fast over 12 hours?

 

[Astronuc]

To be honest, there may not be not much we can do now but wait and hope! We are up to 120,000 cases today; France is up to over 90,000 and Italy is up to 45,000. Omicron is probably effectively uncontrollable. All we can do is hope that it isn't too deadly and try to weather the storm.

New York State just reported an all time record high of daily positive cases, 38,835, or almost 10k more than the previous day.

Other states are seeing similar rapid increases.

The State of Tennessee identified nearly 2700 deaths due to or involving COVID-19, so they have increase their tally from about 18,000 to 20,644.

In Houston, Texas, authorities have reported a death from COVID-19 involving the Omicron variant. The man in his 50s had a previous COVID infection, which apparently did not provide sufficient natural immunity, or perhaps previous damage due to an earlier variant rendered his system unable to cope with Omicron. The man was unvaccinated and had a pre-existing condition, which I interpret as a comorbidity, which is the case for many of the deaths.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...algo/285-a251bc25-d2b8-4419-9058-bb2920742855

Houston Methodist said Monday that 82% of its new cases are omicron after just three weeks of testing for it. It took delta three months to reach that point.

 

[valenumr]

Wouldn't that just be 6 times as fast over 12 hours?

Eh, that joke isn't as funny as it sounded in my head. I would say that the correct approach is to look at the rate of change, i.e, the derivative of the population count data for fit doesn't matter if it is linear or quadratic or exponential. So in your example, twice as fast.

 

[valenumr]

New York State just reported an all time record high of daily positive cases, 38,835, or almost 10k more than the previous day.

Other states are seeing similar rapid increases.

The State of Tennessee identified nearly 2700 deaths due to or involving COVID-19, so they have increase their tally from about 18,000 to 20,644.

In Houston, Texas, authorities have reported a death from COVID-19 involving the Omicron variant. The man in his 50s had a previous COVID infection, which apparently did not provide sufficient natural immunity, or perhaps previous damage due to an earlier variant rendered his system unable to cope with Omicron. The man was unvaccinated and had a pre-existing condition, which I interpret as a comorbidity, which is the case for many of the deaths.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...algo/285-a251bc25-d2b8-4419-9058-bb2920742855

1511 here today, which is close to the pandemic peak of like 1580. Previous 3 day average was around 750.

 

[nsaspook]

To be honest, there may not be not much we can do now but wait and hope! We are up to 120,000 cases today; France is up to over 90,000 and Italy is up to 45,000. Omicron is probably effectively uncontrollable. All we can do is hope that it isn't too deadly and try to weather the storm.

I'm also hoping the peak will be extremely sharp on the down-turn world-wide as omicron gains domination.
https://thehill.com/changing-americ...uth-africa-ground-zero-for-omicron-now-seeing

“If previous variants caused waves shaped like Kilimanjaro, omicron’s is more like we were scaling the North Face of Everest,” said Karim.

It looks like we will get lots of “natural immunity” from the omicron variant, the 'hard way'.

 

[Astronuc]

New York State just reported an all time record high of daily positive cases, 38,835, or almost 10k more than the previous day.

New York State set yet another record of for new daily positive cases, 44,431 cases. Deaths during the previos two days were 70 and 71, up from an average of 60 per day. Yesterday, the number included three deaths of people in their 20s (20-29), none in their 30s, five in their 40s (40-49), four in their 50s (50-59). The 60+ population still accounts for most fatalities. It's not clear that Omicron is responsible for an increase in mortality, since Delta has been prevalent until Omicron took off.

 

[PeroK]

New York State set yet another record of for new daily positive cases, 44,431 cases. Deaths during the previos two days were 70 and 71, up from an average of 60 per day. Yesterday, the number included three deaths of people in their 20s (20-29), none in their 30s, five in their 40s (40-49), four in their 50s (50-59). The 60+ population still accounts for most fatalities. It's not clear that Omicron is responsible for an increase in mortality, since Delta has been prevalent until Omicron took off.

There are record numbers of cases worldwide. According to this site, there were 980,000 cases worldwide yesterday. That's the highest ever. Although, total deaths are below 8,000. Also, countries such as the UK, Ireland, Denmark, Australia and others are reporting their highest ever daily totals.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[valenumr]

There are record numbers of cases worldwide. According to this site, there were 980,000 cases worldwide yesterday. That's the highest ever. Although, total deaths are below 8,000. Also, countries such as the UK, Ireland, Denmark, Australia and others are reporting their highest ever daily totals.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1828 here today. 19.6 percent test positivity. The situation is deteriorating quickly. Also it is being reported that many flights are being canceled as air crew are out with covid. I've already seen several local businesses shut down due to staff Covid issues.

 

[PeroK]

1828 here today. 19.6 percent test positivity. The situation is deteriorating quickly. Also it is being reported that many flights are being canceled as air crew are out with covid. I've already seen several local businesses shut down due to staff Covid issues.

Even if people are not dying or going to hospital, they are not able to go to work.

 

[Astronuc]

Even if people are not dying or going to hospital, they are not able to go to work.

Well, in the US, or at least the northeastern US, some hospitals are reaching record numbers of COVID-19, and most patients are unvaccinated. I listened to the following tonight,

Monadnock Community Hospital in New Hampshire is so tight on beds that each day medical personnel call hospitals in five other states in hopes of finding space for one of its COVID patients.

The hospital has sent them as far away as Albany, NY, which borders on the west of Vermont, the state between NY and New Hamsphire. Eric Lasky, Monadnock Community Hospital, Peterborough, New Hampshire says it's been getting progressively worse. Lasky mentions that they have filled available hospital bed in a 5 state area. Some hospitals cannot take new patients, which means patients will have to remain home and hope for the best. Treatment might not be available for everyone who needs it.

 

[pinball1970]

Well, in the US, or at least the northeastern US, some hospitals are reaching record numbers of COVID-19, and most patients are unvaccinated. I listed to the following tonight,


The hospital has sent them as far away as Albany, NY, which borders on the west of Vermont, the state between NY and New Hamsphire. Eric Lasky, Monadnock Community Hospital, Peterborough, New Hampshire says it's been getting progressively worse. Lasky mentions that they have filled available hospital bed in a 5 state area. Some hospitals cannot take new patients, which means patients will have to remain home and hope for the best. Treatment might not be available for everyone who needs it.

UK hospital cases are spiking also.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

 

[kyphysics]

I promise I am not Eric Ding's child.

 

[Astronuc]

UK hospital cases are spiking also.

Manchester Evening News - 'Fit and healthy' pregnant mum, 24, who died after catching coronavirus
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...ter-news/fit-healthy-pregnant-mum-24-22578471

Just one story of too many, and only 24.

New York state did not report numbers on Christmas day, but did today. The state recorded 49,708 new positive COVID-19 cases on 24 Dec! It looks like New York City has had a surge in cases. The number of new positive cases fell on Christmas (probably because of the holiday) to 36,454, so may not be indicative of a decrease in rate.

Edit/update: AFP - New York sees increase in hospitalized children as Omicron hammers US
https://news.yahoo.com/fauci-vows-more-testing-covids-154334687.html

In New York City, it "identified four-fold increases in Covid-19 hospital admissions for children 18 and under beginning the week of December 5 through the current week," it said.

Approximately half of the admissions are younger than five, an age group that is vaccine ineligible, the department added.

The number of Covid-19 cases in the United States is on the rise, with an average of nearly 190,000 new infections daily over the past seven days, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University.

 

[valenumr]

Now Hawaii has exceeded 2200 cases reported today, which, given the nature of the timing (Sunday, after Christmas) is alarming. It's still hard to say whether the rapid increase in cases here is due to circumstances, e.g. loosened restrictions, or omicron going nuts.

 

[artis]

Manchester Evening News - 'Fit and healthy' pregnant mum, 24, who died after catching coronavirus
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...ter-news/fit-healthy-pregnant-mum-24-22578471

Just one story of too many, and only 24.

I don't want to speculate about why this woman died as I don't know but I find it very rare that fit and healthy people without preexisting conditions die from Covid , unless of course there is another reason and here locally a few folks died for that very reason. The reason being that they didn't pay attention or treat their infection. I actually know some folks (males typically but not only)that have this "bravado" type of attitude about getting sick, like they don't take any medicine and sometimes "ride it out" in a sauna.
This is not only dangerous for oneself but also for others.
For some it works , their immunity manages to win the virus in a few days, a friend of mine said he had sweat and fever for one night and next day felt fine, weeks later went to an antibody blood test and was positive all the way.
For some it doesn't, a lecturer at a local university a rather know man around here also got sick with Covid way back when alpha and beta was the dominant variant. Apparently he felt not as bad and thought it was just the common cold, so he went for a swim in a frozen lake, you know the type of winter swim.
I think sauna was afterwards. From what little info was released to the press I gather he developed a strong pneumonia quickly afterwards and died shortly thereafter.

The message here is simple, pay attention and if your sick just a little bit, sit home and if necessary take medicine and "ride it out" the proper way instead of not paying attention and just going around as if nothings wrong.

Back in 2011 when the only danger here was the flu a local musician died the same way, he preferred the "bohemian" lifestyle bit more than he preferred drugs and a hospital bed. His case was ordinary flu and complications were pneumonia.

 

[pinball1970]

I don't want to speculate about why this woman died as I don't know but I find it very rare that fit and healthy people without preexisting conditions die from Covid , unless of course there is another reason and here locally a few folks died for that very reason. The reason being that they didn't pay attention or treat their infection. I actually know some folks (males typically but not only)that have this "bravado" type of attitude about getting sick, like they don't take any medicine and sometimes "ride it out" in a sauna.
This is not only dangerous for oneself but also for others.
For some it works , their immunity manages to win the virus in a few days, a friend of mine said he had sweat and fever for one night and next day felt fine, weeks later went to an antibody blood test and was positive all the way.
For some it doesn't, a lecturer at a local university a rather know man around here also got sick with Covid way back when alpha and beta was the dominant variant. Apparently he felt not as bad and thought it was just the common cold, so he went for a swim in a frozen lake, you know the type of winter swim.
I think sauna was afterwards. From what little info was released to the press I gather he developed a strong pneumonia quickly afterwards and died shortly thereafter.

The message here is simple, pay attention and if your sick just a little bit, sit home and if necessary take medicine and "ride it out" the proper way instead of not paying attention and just going around as if nothings wrong.

Back in 2011 when the only danger here was the flu a local musician died the same way, he preferred the "bohemian" lifestyle bit more than he preferred drugs and a hospital bed. His case was ordinary flu and complications were pneumonia.

Yes it happens especially unvaccinated.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-southport-who-rejected-vaccine-dies-of-covid

State of play in the UK till 23rd Dec

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

 

[kyphysics]

Man dies after a 15-day wait for a medical center bed. His survivors blame the COVID surge​

DES MOINES — Dale Weeks’ family believes he was an indirect victim of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The retired Iowa school superintendent died in late November, nearly a month after he was diagnosed with sepsis, a dangerous, blood-borne infection unrelated to the coronavirus.

His daughters think he might have survived if he’d been admitted immediately to a large medical center, where he could have received advanced testing and prompt surgery.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/man-dies-15-day-wait-131609178.html

Stuff like this is why many are still concerned with Omicron.

 

[kyphysics]

I don't want to speculate about why this woman died as I don't know but I find it very rare that fit and healthy people without preexisting conditions die from Covid , unless of course there is another reason and here locally a few folks died for that very reason. The reason being that they didn't pay attention or treat their infection. I actually know some folks (males typically but not only)that have this "bravado" type of attitude about getting sick, like they don't take any medicine and sometimes "ride it out" in a sauna.

The virus is bizarre and one cannot simply look at broad level statistics. My uncle who has two comorbidities got a positive result from his COVID test and he felt nothing.

I have a work acquaintance, who was a Division 1 college athlete, is fit, young, and has no issues, who got COVID and was really sick (sort of like a very severe cold and cough) for several weeks. He took off work and also could barely talk at his worst stage. He, himself, said he was surprised it could do this to him, as he's sort of the epitome of youth and health.

It's a weird virus. And, yes, lots of people have that manly attitude that they'll just ride it out and let their immune system beat it. Doesn't always happen like that. I bet those people really regret their decisions later and it's the same story over and over and over...these people warn others, but others don't listen ...it's like you have to have that very severe case yourself before you believe.

 

[pinball1970]

The virus is bizarre and one cannot simply look at broad level statistics. My uncle who has two comorbidities got a positive result from his COVID test and he felt nothing.

I have a work acquaintance, who was a Division 1 college athlete, is fit, young, and has no issues, who got COVID and was really sick (sort of like a very severe cold and cough) for several weeks. He took off work and also could barely talk at his worst stage. He, himself, said he was surprised it could do this to him, as he's sort of the epitome of youth and health.

It's a weird virus. And, yes, lots of people have that manly attitude that they'll just ride it out and let their immune system beat it. Doesn't always happen like that. I bet those people really regret their decisions later and it's the same story over and over and over...these people warn others, but others don't listen ...it's like you have to have that very severe case yourself before you believe.

Vaccinated?

 

[kyphysics]

Vaccinated?

I never officially asked him, but I think he probably was.

We've talked before about COVID and he says he always tries to "do as in Rome" when it comes to masking. Said he respects others wishes when going out and will mask if others desire it. I can't say for certain he was vaxed, but given how respectful he was of others' virus concerns, I'd think he was. In any case, he's as fit as you can imagine - again, former college athlete (who has competed all over the world for Olympic qualifications and world championships).

 

[pinball1970]

I never officially asked him, but I think he probably was.

We've talked before about COVID and he says he always tries to "do as in Rome" when it comes to masking. Said he respects others wishes when going out and will mask if others desire it. I can't say for certain he was vaxed, but given how respectful he was of others' virus concerns, I'd think he was. In any case, he's as fit as you can imagine - again, former college athlete (who has competed all over the world for Olympic qualifications and world championships).

25% of UK premiership footballers are not vaccinated. By choice.

 

[kyphysics]

25% of UK premiership footballers are not vaccinated. By choice.

I'm not surprised. If you're young and healthy, you might think the risk-reward of vaxing is not worth it. Of course, vaxing is not just for you, but for others (who are vulnerable) and the risk-reward may actually be in favor of vaxing overall, but perhaps these individuals don't follow the science/real news (not fake news) enough to make an informed opinion.

There is probably still work to be done in properly educating people on the risk-rewards of vaxing. Ultimately, I still respect people's choices not to get vaxed. I am less tolerant on masking, because there doesn't seem to be health risks to people to mask (other than to those with breathing issues for which we already have rule exceptions for). Not masking, even if it protects your neighbor, seems kinda selfish to me.

Not vaxing, b/c you think they risk-reward is not worth it, seems rational - even if I think often logically flawed. By the way, lots of pilots have reportedly been reluctant to take the vax, because blood clots are a possible side effect. It is known that pilots are also more susceptible to blood clots already within the overall population. So, I can understand why some may be hesitant. They could lose their ability to fly if they get a blood clot (or even die), as they are tested regularly for health and fitness to fly. ...Of course, if they catch COVID, they could also end up with symptoms making them ineligible to fly too! Long COVID's brain fog would be crushing to their careers, for example...but maybe they're not thinking about that or know enough of it.

It's a tricky thing re: decisions to vax or not for the young/healthy. I am understanding.

 

[pinball1970]

I'm not surprised. If you're young and healthy, you might think the risk-reward of vaxing is not worth it. Of course, vaxing is not just for you, but for others (who are vulnerable) and the risk-reward may actually be in favor of vaxing overall, but perhaps these individuals don't follow the science/real news (not fake news) enough to make an informed opinion.

There is probably still work to be done in properly educating people on the risk-rewards of vaxing. Ultimately, I still respect people's choices not to get vaxed. I am less tolerant on masking, because there doesn't seem to be health risks to people to mask (other than to those with breathing issues for which we already have rule exceptions for). Not masking, even if it protects your neighbor, seems kinda selfish to me.

Not vaxing, b/c you think they risk-reward is not worth it, seems rational - even if I think often logically flawed. By the way, lots of pilots have reportedly been reluctant to take the vax, because blood clots are a possible side effect. It is known that pilots are also more susceptible to blood clots already within the overall population. So, I can understand why some may be hesitant. They could lose their ability to fly if they get a blood clot (or even die), as they are tested regularly for health and fitness to fly. ...Of course, if they catch COVID, they could also end up with symptoms making them ineligible to fly too! Long COVID's brain fog would be crushing to their careers, for example...but maybe they're not thinking about that or know enough of it.

It's a tricky thing re: decisions to vax or not for the young/healthy. I am understanding.

Pfizer has now been approved for 5-11 year olds
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...f-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-in-5-to-11-year-olds

 

[artis]

@kyphysics wait I didn't understand , so who was vaxxed , the old person you said felt nothing or the new athlete or both?

 

[hutchphd]

It's a tricky thing re: decisions to vax or not for the young/healthy. I am understanding.

Why is it a tricky thing? One looks at the numbers and decides on that basis. Oh wait (!) we have hired people to do that for us and for the most part they are better informed and smarter than we are.
Do what the CDC says and do not perseverate. You will live longer

 

[Astronuc]

New York State posted some relatively low numbers during the past couple of days, except for deaths yesterday. The drop in numbers likely had to do with the holiday, where data was not processed from last Friday through Sunday, until Monday morning. Positive cases have jumped to an average of nearly 38k/day, about an order of magnitude greater than two months ago, and about 5x a month ago.

Yesterday, NY State reported 137 deaths due to COVID-19, but some of those where probably from the weekend. Right now, the mortality rate is a little over 70/day (7-day average), but could be steadily rising, to 80 to 90/day, base on 84 today.

Looking at the age groups, one sees an increase in mortality of those in their 20s and 30s, but certainly not at the rates of those 60+. And NY State had one more death in the 10-19 age group, up from 20 to 21 deaths, after sitting at 20 for 10 days; it was 18 on Dec 14, and 17 on Dec 06, so roughly one death per week in the 10-19 population, with higher rates in the 20-29, 30-39, 40-49 and 50-59 groups.

I don't know the details from other states, since they don't make the detailed data readily available, but I do read stories of many states seeing dramatic increases in hospitalizations of children and young adults.

 

[StevieTNZ]

NSW cases today: 11,201
NZ's: 46

Congratulations, New Zealand! You're the best :D

 

[morrobay]

A new study from South Africa suggests antibodies from the omicorn variant are protective for the delta variant. A small sample and not peer reviewed . But could be good news.
https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/...inst-delta-covid-variant-south-africa-study-s

 

[artis]

A new study from South Africa suggests antibodies from the omicorn variant are protective for the delta variant. A small sample and not peer reviewed . But could be good news.

Well seems like Omicron is backwards compatible much like NTSC once was and USB interface connectors are and many others things in our IT and physics world.

It would have been better if it was the other way around though.

 

[pinball1970]

Well seems like Omicron is backwards compatible much like NTSC once was and USB interface connectors are and many others things in our IT and physics world.

It would have been better if it was the other way around though.

Not if Omicron is less severe and this is looking like the case.

 

[Astronuc]

Yes, I agree with the dramatic increase, I'm trying to reconcile the CDC Region 2 reporting 92% Omicron as compared to NY State, which heavily weights in Region 2, at 11% Omicron for the two week period ending 18-December. I'd like to know more about the measurements and weighted averaging.

CDC revises Omicron numbers lowering percentage drastically: "Omicron is now estimated to account for 58.6% of all new cases."
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=81952698

I'm waiting to see the data.

Edit/update: from Politico

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention significantly revised its model of the breakdown of Covid-19 variants on Tuesday, estimating the Omicron strain accounted for about 58.6 percent of U.S. cases as of Dec. 25.

The public health agency’s previous estimate that the rapidly spreading variant accounted for 73.2 percent of cases nationwide on Dec. 18 is now revised down to 22.5 percent — a significant drop that falls outside the agency's earlier 95 percent prediction interval, or likely range where future analysis will fall, of 34 to 94.9 percent of all cases.

I thought the CDC statement concerning Dec 18 estimate was off. Their explanation as to why seems a bit off as well. Faulty predictions, or sloppy statistical analysis?

 

[artis]

Not if Omicron is less severe and this is looking like the case.

By all current data that truly seems to be the case and that is good, I was referring to antibody compatibility on the other hand.

 

[pinball1970]

ICDC revises Omicron numbers lowering percentage drastically: "Omicron is now estimated to account for 58.6% of all new cases."
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=81952698

I'm waiting to

I posted a huge post!

 

[PeroK]

The UK has recorded about 450,000 new cases in the last three days since Xmas (including 183,000 cases today). There's no stopping it now. Perhaps we should rename it the "O-my-god" variant!

 

[Moes]

Why is it a tricky thing? One looks at the numbers and decides on that basis. Oh wait (!) we have hired people to do that for us and for the most part they are better informed and smarter than we are.
Do what the CDC says and do not perseverate. You will live longer

I agree with this besides for the statement “You will live longer”. It’s possible that from a personal perspective its not worth vaxing. Its more just a general rule that should be followed by everyone for the benefit of the population.

 

[pinball1970]

The UK has recorded about 450,000 new cases in the last three days since Xmas (including 183,000 cases today). There's no stopping it now. Perhaps we should rename it the "O-my-god" variant!

I posted on this.
Omicron could be the saviour, we all get it very quickly. This does what?

Takes us out of the game. In bed for 5 Days, isolation for 10
Stops us getting DELTA which is more likely to put us in A and E
Gives us another booster, we need that in case COVID19 is not quite finished with us.

I million cases per day. Globally. NHS Will be stretched as Bill said x% of Y is similar to 2/3X % of 3Y (currently)
Power through that though? This is the final straight? Finally?

 

[PeroK]

I posted on this.
Omicron could be the saviour, we all get it very quickly. This does what?

Takes us out of the game. In bed for 5 Days, isolation for 10
Stops us getting DELTA which is more likely to put us in A and E
Gives us another booster, we need that in case COVID19 is not quite finished with us.

I million cases per day. Globally. NHS Will be stretched as Bill said x% of Y is similar to 2/3X % of 3Y (currently)
Power through that though? This is the final straight? Finally?

Kill or cure! The next 3 months is going to be rough. After that who knows.

 

[hutchphd]

Kill or cure! The next 3 months is going to be rough. After that who knows.

Omicron knows...

 

[hutchphd]

I agree with this besides for the statement “You will live longer”

"We will live longer" is good enough for me...point taken.