DUARS Satellite Re-Entry: Impressive Light Show & Potential Debris Threat

AI Thread Summary
The UARS satellite is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere this weekend, moving faster than initially predicted. NASA estimates a 1-in-3200 chance of debris hitting someone on the ground, although this statistic is misleading as it reflects the likelihood of at least one person being hit globally. The satellite's trajectory covers a wide area, but the strike zone will narrow as the re-entry date approaches. Discussions among forum members include humorous suggestions for safety and the potential for an impressive light show during the satellite's descent. Overall, while the risk exists, the probability of any specific individual being struck remains extremely low.
Evo
Staff Emeritus
Messages
24,029
Reaction score
3,323
As most of you know the UARS satellite is returning to Earth this weekend...ooops!

Now NASA has determined that UARS is moving along at a quicker pace than predicted, and instead of arriving in late September or early October, the satellite is expected to enter the atmosphere this weekend.

While the satellite’s exact trajectory is still uncertain, anyone in the vicinity of UARS’ return to Earth’s atmosphere will be privy to an impressive light show — and be subject to a 1-in-3200 chance of getting hit by debris, according to NASA.

The remnants will weigh somewhere around 1,170 pounds and be made of titanium, aluminum, steel and beryllium
And apparently the trajectory is right over Evo's house. :rolleyes: :bugeye:

http://news.yahoo.com/fema-prepares...NidXNpbmVzcwRwdANzdG9yeXBhZ2UEdGVzdAM-;_ylv=3

So, could some of our brilliant astrophysicists do a quick back of napkin projection of when my house will burst into flames?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
Bye Bye, Evo
... and I thought evo is leaving pf :cry: :rolleyes::frown:
 
A 1-in-3200 chance of being hit by debris? Yikes!

You need a steel umbrella, Evo!
 
Wow! I would suggest moving to Don's place for the re-entry, but you'd draw the satellite in like a magnet and PF would lose you both.
 
Evo said:
So, could some of our brilliant astrophysicists do a quick back of napkin projection of when my house will burst into flames?
Not enough data. When does your homeowner's insurance run out?
 
rootX said:
... and I thought evo is leaving pf :cry: :rolleyes::frown:
I will if I get hit. :-p
 
1 in 3200 is way too much for my liking. We all know Evo is magnetic.
 
Jimmy Snyder said:
Not enough data. When does your homeowner's insurance run out?
In an apartment and don't have renter's insurance.
 
Borek said:
1 in 3200 is way too much for my liking. We all know Evo is magnetic.
And look at the trajectory! Canada to S. America, look where Kansas is!
 
  • #10
Hey, I'm free this weekend...who would like for me to visit them for the weekend? :smile:
 
  • #11
Evo said:
In an apartment and don't have renter's insurance.
3200 to 1.
 
  • #12
Evo said:
Hey, I'm free this weekend...who would like for me to visit them for the weekend? :smile:
Darn! I'm booked! I have to sort my button collection.
 
  • #13
Evo said:
Hey, I'm free this weekend...who would like for me to visit them for the weekend? :smile:

I would, but I live with my parents and we don't have a spare room. Maybe you can go visit Lisa and meet me on the way?
 
  • #14
turbo said:
Darn! I'm booked! I have to sort my button collection.
I'll be alphabetizing my m&ms
 
  • #15
Jimmy Snyder said:
I'll be alphabetizing my m&ms
:smile:
 
  • #16
Oooh, I'll bet Greg will be home.
 
  • #17
Evo said:
Oooh, I'll bet Greg will be home.
Greg is never home. He'll probably be hiding out in tierra del fuego.
 
  • #18
Evo said:
http://news.yahoo.com/fema-prepares...NidXNpbmVzcwRwdANzdG9yeXBhZ2UEdGVzdAM-;_ylv=3
From the article:
While the satellite’s exact trajectory is still uncertain, anyone in the vicinity of UARS’ return to Earth’s atmosphere will be privy to an impressive light show — and be subject to a 1-in-3200 chance of getting hit by debris, according to NASA.​

The 1/3200 chance is a bit misleading. It is not the probability you will be hit. It is the probability that at least one person somewhere on the face of planet will be hit by debris given 100% uncertainty in when it will come down. The chances that a specific individual will being hit are about 1/3200/7 billion. The satellite, with an orbital inclination of 56.7 degrees, swings over almost all major cities on the planet. As of now, the strike zone apparently still covers pretty much everything between -57 and +57 degrees latitude.

This strike zone will shrink dramatically over the next few days. For all those who remain in it, or remain close to Evo (same thing, thanks to the Evo effect), the probability will rise dramatically. For the vast majority of us, the probability will drop to exactly zero.
 
  • #19
D H said:
From the article:
While the satellite’s exact trajectory is still uncertain, anyone in the vicinity of UARS’ return to Earth’s atmosphere will be privy to an impressive light show — and be subject to a 1-in-3200 chance of getting hit by debris, according to NASA.​

The 1/3200 chance is a bit misleading. It is not the probability you will be hit. It is the probability that at least one person somewhere on the face of planet will be hit by debris given 100% uncertainty in when it will come down. The chances that a specific individual will being hit are about 1/3200/7 billion. The satellite, with an orbital inclination of 56.7 degrees, swings over almost all major cities on the planet. As of now, the strike zone apparently still covers pretty much everything between -57 and +57 degrees latitude.

This strike zone will shrink dramatically over the next few days. For all those who remain in it, or remain close to Evo (same thing, thanks to the Evo effect), the probability will rise dramatically. For the vast majority of us, the probability will drop to exactly zero.
:smile:

Wait, what am I rofling about, the Evo Effect is a proven effect.
 
  • #20
Bye evo!
 
  • #21
Evo said:
:smile:

Wait, what am I rofling about, the Evo Effect is a proven effect.

It would be best for humanity for you to relocate to the middle of the Pacific till it comes down.
 
  • #22
Bora Bora! Yay!
 
  • #23
Evo, relax! The 1/3200 is only for people on the ground. Just don't be on the ground when it hits and you will be fine.

I'd suggest a trampoline, but you might break your ankle...

Lets all send her helium get well balloons!
 
  • #24
I was thinking of avoiding the swimming pool as another article predicted that there was a greater chance for the satellite to hit large bodies in water.

Oh wait, that's large bodies of water...nevermind.
 
  • #25
Evo is shooting for funniest member!
 
  • #26
Ms Music said:
Evo, relax! The 1/3200 is only for people on the ground. Just don't be on the ground when it hits and you will be fine.

I'd suggest a trampoline, but you might break your ankle...

Lets all send her helium get well balloons!
Don't stop there. If we get her in orbit around the moon that debris will become really confused!
 
  • #27
Ms Music said:
Evo, relax! The 1/3200 is only for people on the ground. Just don't be on the ground when it hits and you will be fine.

I'd suggest a trampoline, but you might break your ankle...

Lets all send her helium get well balloons!

zoobyshoe said:
Don't stop there. If we get her in orbit around the moon that debris will become really confused!
Please don't send me up without oxygen.
 
Last edited:
  • #28
Evo said:
Please don't send me up without oxygen.
Oh, sure! Now you demand amenities! Another spoiled member of the privileged class demanding special treatment.
 
  • #30
I was living in Phila. when Skylab fell from the sky. It landed in the ocean off of Perth Australia, quite literally the antipode of Phila. I think Kansas is the antipode of Northern South Jersey.
 
  • #31
Jimmy Snyder said:
I was living in Phila. when Skylab fell from the sky. It landed in the ocean off of Perth Australia, quite literally the antipode of Phila. I think Kansas is the antipode of Northern South Jersey.
I need to buy a new globe!
 
  • #32
I thought you were leaving PF when I saw the subject, just as rootX did. Don't ever choose a title like that again for any reason OTHER than your departure from the forums. :mad::mad:
 
  • #33
Pengwuino said:
Bye evo!
Evil penguin,

Seriously Evo, with your track history, this could be very very very bad, if I could take a direct head on bird strike to the top of a helmet (I am not unlucky), this has, can you say, "Echhh" written all over it.
The remnants will weigh somewhere around 1,170 pounds and be made of titanium, aluminum, steel and beryllium

A one to two pound bird traveling at 50 mph is one thing, but a chunk of satellite with Evo's name on it is a totally different matter. My suggestion, find a neighbor with a concrete reinforced safe room, play cards, talk, have a psychic reading for God sakes. I vote we duct tape Pengy to a chair in Evo's apartment and leave him there till the debris field passes, and oh yeah, stuff a dead smelly fish in his beak. That visual is simply stunning, I outdid myself this time guys.

Rhody... :-p
 
  • #34
Dembadon said:
I thought you were leaving PF when I saw the subject, just as rootX did. Don't ever choose a title like that again for any reason OTHER than your departure from the forums. :mad::mad:
sorry
 
  • #35
Evo said:
sorry

Evo scurries under a rock and hides from the PF collective, members like myself included.

Rhody...
 
  • #36
rhody said:
Evil penguin,

Seriously Evo, with your track history, this could be very very very bad, if I could take a direct head on bird strike to the top of a helmet (I am not unlucky), this has, can you say, "Echhh" written all over it.


A one to two pound bird traveling at 50 mph is one thing, but a chunk of satellite with Evo's name on it is a totally different matter. My suggestion, find a neighbor with a concrete reinforced safe room, play cards, talk, have a psychic reading for God sakes. I vote we duct tape Pengy to a chair in Evo's apartment and leave him there till the debris field passes, and oh yeah, stuff a dead smelly fish in his beak. That visual is simply stunning, I outdid myself this time guys.

Rhody... :-p
:smile:
 
  • #37
Evo said:
:smile:
Evo,

According to the news report you posted, they won't know for sure till about two hours beforehand when and where the debris field will be spread. They say sometime next Saturday. I say go north or due west, but don't forget to leave Pengy with water, he will need it to wash that nasty fish smell away !

Rhody... :approve: :smile: I haven't had this much fun in weeks, thanks for this thread. Evil Bird...
 
  • #38
The way that sucker is tumbling, there is no way to know when and where it will come down. It's not like NASA has any control, even attitude-jets or gyros, to massage this. It comes down where it comes down. BTW, if some of it comes down on your property, you have to inform federal authorities and NOT TOUCH any bit of it. Even if killed your granny, the federal government owns all of the "bus" and you will be prosecuted if you try to sell a little piece of it.
 
  • #39
I'm getting that Cold War vibe again, but not from the Russkies.
 
  • #40
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #41
Evo, I just called someone I know who knows a few people. Don't say a thing, we never talked, don't worry it's all set. Sleep well.
 
  • #42
Wait this thread has 308 views and 40 replies in 2 hours, that HAS to be some kind of PF record.

BobG since you seem to have a knack for this sort of thing, could you look into this ?

It smells like some kind of a winner to me.

Rhody...
 
  • #43
Chi Meson said:
Evo, I just called someone I know who knows a few people. Don't say a thing, we never talked, don't worry it's all set. Sleep well.
o:) I can trust Chi.

I hope he's not referring to my wish to die in my sleep. :rolleyes:
 
  • #44
Evo, you need to be aggressive in fending this off. Put on your welding helmet, grab your chainsaw, and climb onto the roof of your apartment. When you see the glowing light approaching, fire up the chainsaw and let out a mighty roar. Scare that sucker away! :mad:
 
  • #45
berkeman said:
Evo, you need to be aggressive in fending this off. Put on your welding helmet, grab your chainsaw, and climb onto the roof of your apartment. When you see the glowing light approaching, fire up the chainsaw and let out a mighty roar. Scare that sucker away! :mad:
:smile:
 
  • #46
berkeman said:
Evo, you need to be aggressive in fending this off. Put on your welding helmet, grab your chainsaw, and climb onto the roof of your apartment. When you see the glowing light approaching, fire up the chainsaw and let out a mighty roar. Scare that sucker away! :mad:
Ladders, roofs. chainsaws, helmets...

I see a few opportunities for Evo-death here. Are you angling for an appointment to GD? Just asking...
 
  • #47
Wait a minute...don't you have a padded asbestos suit, Evo?
 
  • #48
rhody said:
Wait this thread has 308 views and 40 replies in 2 hours, that HAS to be some kind of PF record.

BobG since you seem to have a knack for this sort of thing, could you look into this ?

It smells like some kind of a winner to me.

Rhody...

That's because everyone thought Evo was leaving or dying or worse!

Personally, if I found a piece of the satellite, I'd be inclined to keep it...

How come no one can do the math to find out exactly when/where it will re-enter? Isn't that what math is for? Why am I studying it if it has no practical application? Does it only work in textbooks designed to torture students on false pretenses for years on end?
 
  • #49
lisab said:
Wait a minute...don't you have a padded asbestos suit, Evo?
No, Kurdt never finished it. :frown:
 
  • #50
lisab said:
Wait a minute...don't you have a padded asbestos suit, Evo?
I tried to lure you to Maine to work at the University of Maine at Orono's materials lab. You might to be killed by the Evo-magnet. Hope not, but you chose your own bed... Any songs that you would like me to play after your demise?
 

Hot Threads

Recent Insights

Back
Top