pervect said:
I would expect it to fluctuate.
There is an obvious argument for this, which is that, since the two point masses are always 180 degrees opposite each other, their velocities relative to the moving frame will vary in the same way (i.e., they will both increase and decrease in sync), so their energies will as well. However, this argument, as it stands, has a flaw: it ignores relativity of simultaneity (the simultaneity assumption is hidden in the phrase "always 180 degrees opposite", which is false in the moving frame, as we will see). Without trying to do a full-blown calculation, let me try to put that back into see if it changes the intuitive conclusion.
Suppose that, at the instant ##t = 0## in the rest frame, the two point masses are aligned exactly along the direction of relative motion of the moving frame. Then, in the moving frame, one mass will be aligned along that direction--call it, for concreteness, the ##x## direction--before the other. So at the instant ##t' = 0## in the moving frame, one mass (the one that was aligned along the ##x## direction earlier) will be further along in its orbit by some angle ##\alpha##, while the other (the one that was aligned along the ##x## direction later) will be not as far along by some angle ##\beta##.
Furthermore, ##\alpha## and ##\beta## will not, in general, be the same. How can we tell? Because, at the instant when the two point masses, in the rest frame, are aligned along the ##y## direction, they must also be aligned along the ##y'## direction in the moving frame, because the ##y## axis is not changed by the Lorentz transformation. So from the same time ##t'## in the moving frame, somewhat before ##t' = 0##, one mass (the one that ends up further along past the ##x'## axis at ##t' = 0## by angle ##\alpha##) must have moved further than the other (the one that ends up short of the ##x'## axis at ##t' = 0##, by angle ##\beta##). In other words, each point mass travels slower along one half of the orbit than along the other. So their velocities at the same time in the moving frame will not always be the same, and the simple argument above breaks down.
Furthermore, I'm not sure we can tell, without a full-blown calculation, whether there is still a version of the argument (that the total energy should fluctuate) that works. Consider the instant ##t' = 0## described above. At that instant, both point masses are in the "slower" semicircle of the orbit; the one that is further along by ##\alpha## is slowing down, and the one that is not as far along by ##\beta## is speeding up. Since the point masses line up along the ##y'## axis, where one is at its slowest and the other is at its fastest, it will always be true that one is slowing down while the other is speeding up; so it is still possible that their total energy could be constant. (The fact that, at the instant ##t' = 0##, they are both in the "slower" semicircle does not rule this out, since their velocities will not vary linearly with orbital angle in the moving frame.)
Further comment on how putting the string in affects all this in a follow-up post.