davilla wrote: What assumptions are we making about our local reference frame? If we assume the Universe isn't expanding, what factor would account for the apparent contradiction in evidence? Doesn't that sound like a much more reasonable approach?
Let's take it step by step. Lots of simplification here, and many important qualifications that'll need to be made once we get more specific (experts with advanced degrees in astrophysics, please be gentle).
First, we observe that galaxies have 'lines' in their spectra which match the 'lines' we see in the spectra of stars. ('lines' is a historical legacy; it means certain wavelengths/frequencies are being absorbed, by various atomic species). We conclude that these lines arise because galaxies are made up of lots and lots of stars, like the ones we can see. (as telescopes have got more powerful, we've been able to 'resolve' ever more distant galaxies into stars).
Next, we observe that the further away a galaxy is, the more those lines are shifted into the red ('redshift').
Then we have a huge debate, lasting decades, on just how far away a galaxy is, and couldn't the redshifts be caused by something other than 'receding from us'? We conclude that, with some important exceptions, redshift does indicate recessional speed.
After that we see that a plot of distance vs redshift has some outliers on it - galaxies whose redshift indicates they should be further (or closer) than the distance we measure by other means. Another huge debate ensues. We conclude that we can account for the outliers, but only with something called 'dark matter' - something which has mass but does not emit (or absorb) light (or X-rays, radio, gammas, ...). We are comfortable with this conclusion because an awful lot of other, independent, observations point to the same conclusion, and are all consistent with each other.
(nearly there). Our redshift-distance plot is a straight line; the constant is called the Hubble constant, after the astronomer who first published a paper on the relationship. We finally - 80+ years later - agree on what value the Hubble constant has, to +/- 10% (or 5%?). Interestingly, if you look at the data Hubble used in his landmark paper, you'd conclude it didn't really make his case.
Last (actually almost first, historically), we apply the best theory of physics that we have, for 'big' things - Einstein's General Relativity - to the universe as a whole, and find that GR predicts an expanding universe!
Have we overlooked something? Are the data open to a completely different interpretation? Of course! All kinds of clever alternatives have been suggested, and some really wild ideas tossed about. Bottom line: nothing does as good a job of accounting for the data as an expanding universe consistent with GR.
Then along came a spider ... observations of quite distant supernovae appear to show that the rate of expansion of the universe is accelerating, and has been for the past x billion years. Wha? Enter 'dark energy', 'cosmological constant' (Einstein invented that too), 'quintessence', and much more. The debate rages; stay tuned, same station, same time, for the next exciting episode of "It's your universe, no need to eat, the Big Rip will bloat you anyway!"