Exploring the Possibility of 100% Renewable Grid w/ Super Power

[BWV]

Interesting report on the issues and viability of a 100% wind / solar / battery grid.

https://www.rethinkx.com/energy#energy-download

• It is both physically possible and economically affordable to meet 100% of electricity demand with the combination of solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) by 2030 across the entire continental United States as well as the overwhelming majority of other populated regions of the world.
• The Clean Energy U-Curve captures the tradeoff relationship between electricity generation and energy storage, and is a valuable tool for both understanding how 100% SWB is achievable as well as identifying the optimal mix of generation and storage capacity in any given region.
• Lowest cost 100% SWB systems will typically require just 35-90 average demand hours of battery energy storage, depending on regional climate and geography.
• 100% SWB will provide the cheapest possible electricity system by 2030 – far less expensive than new conventional power plants, and in many cases less expensive than continuing to operate existing coal, gas, or nuclear power plants.
• While both solar power and wind power are necessary, these generation technologies are not equal because solar is becoming cheaper more quickly. The lowest cost 100% SWB systems will comprise up to 10x more solar than wind in most locations.
• SWB will not merely replace conventional power generation technologies as a proportional 1-to-1 substitution, but will instead create a much larger electricity system based on an entirely new architecture that operates according to a different set of rules and metrics.
• Just as the Internet disrupted many incumbent industries but facilitated the emergence of many more – and created trillions of dollars of new value – by reducing the marginal cost of information to near zero, the SWB disruption will have a similar impact by reducing the marginal cost of energy to near-zero for a substantial portion of the year.
• 100% SWB systems will produce a very large amount of surplus power output, or Clean Energy Super Power, on most days of the year. In California, for example, super power from the lowest cost SWB system combination of SWB of 309 terawatt-hours is greater than the state’s total existing electricity demand of 285 terawatt-hours.
• Clean energy superabundance from near-zero marginal cost SWB super power will create a new possibility space for novel business models, products, services, and markets across dozens of industries, with dramatic increases in societal capabilities and economic prosperity for regions that adopt a 100% SWB system.

• Examples of super power applications include electrification of road transportation and heating, water desalination and treatment, waste processing and recycling, metal smelting and refining, chemical processing and manufacturing, cryptocurrency mining, cloud computing and communications, and carbon removal.
• At national scale, super power in the United States would create trillions of dollars of economic value and millions of jobs across the wider economy.
• Super power can help repatriate industries, particularly in heavy industry, that stand to benefit from superabundant near-zero marginal cost clean energy.
• SWB can be autocatalytic by dedicating a portion of super power to the manufacture of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries themselves.
• The clean energy U-curve shows that incremental investments in additional solar generation capacity beyond the lowest cost combination of SWB capacities will yield disproportionally large increases in super power. For example, a 20% incremental investment in California would increase super power output by over 190% from 309 terawatt-hours to 592 terawatt-hours.
• The construction of a 100% SWB system in the continental United States would cost less than $2 trillion over the course of the 2020s – just 1% of GDP – and would support millions of new jobs during that time.
• The amount of super power produced by 100% SWB systems is so large that it could displace up to half of all fossil fuel energy use outside of the existing electric power sector.
• 100% SWB systems will not only eliminate virtually all greenhouse gas emissions from the existing electric power sector but will also reduce emissions by displacing fossil fuel energy use in other sectors – residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and agriculture – as well.
• Combined with electric vehicles, a 100% SWB system could eliminate all fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions in both the electricity sector and road transportation sector simultaneously, thereby mitigating half of the country’s total carbon footprint.
• Efficiency in the new system will mean maximizing output and utilization because there is no fuel or waste to minimize.
• Conservation in the new system will mean maximizing rather than minimizing energy use, because it is not harmful to utilize electricity generated from sunshine and wind but rather it is harmful to let it go to waste.

The idea of 'super power' as they term it - the large surpluses generated during peak times for wind and solar generation is one of the more interesting aspects

The potential applications for super power are extraordinary. A superabundance of clean electricity at near-zero marginal cost that is available on most days of the year will enable the emergence of new business models across a wide range of industries. Examples of applications include electrification of road transportation and heating, water desalination and treatment, waste processing and recycling, metal smelting and refining, chemical processing and manufacturing, cryptocurrency mining, distributed computing and communications, fuel production, carbon removal, and manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries themselves – to name just a few. It is difficult to overstate how significant the impact of super power will be. History shows that energy abundance enables and supports social and economic development in the broadest sense, and so a superabundance of extremely cheap energy with little or no social or environmental externalities will create unprecedented opportunities for every region that chooses to adopt a 100% SWB system, in both less-developed and more-developed countries alike.

 

[Keith_McClary]

plan to export power from a giant solar farm in Australia to Singapore via a 3,800 kilometre undersea cable.

 

[russ_watters]

Bold claims, to say the least. It isn't just a model of potential, but rather a prediction of what will actually happen. I've just started reading, but from what I see so far, they are doing self-contradictory double-dipping on features and constraints:
1. The change is inevitable yet requires policy initiatives.
2. "Super power" (yes, they actually use that term) is essentially free. That's the extra energy you get by over-building solar/wind. Of course, if it's free, that's because you can't sell it, which makes the claimed production cost of the electricity you do sell wrong.

But the overall basis for the ideas is that logarithmic improvements in cost will continue for another decade.

 

[BWV]

The excess 'super power' is not just overbuilding - other than pure baseload power like Hydro , no conventional power plant is always operational. Grid capacity, whether conventional or renewable, is built to manage peak load, not the average, so there always will be more generating capacity than current demand. The difference with wind and solar is there is no marginal cost to produce electricity and therefore no reason to turn them off - so surpluses get generated. Have no basis for comparison, but thought the paper did an interesting job of extrapolating how this might look on a 100% WSB (wind solar battery) grid.

 

[russ_watters]

The excess 'super power' is not just overbuilding...

I'm not really following -- it appears to me that's exactly where you get it. The scenarios listed on page 12 are anywhere from 3.8x - 10.8x capacity.

Note: I think you may be mixing kW and kWh. The over-capacity described here is kW. The grid doesn't have kW over-capacity (+/-a couple percent). The "super power" is inaccurately named; it is kWh. Any power plant can produce cheaper energy when nobody wants it (except nuclear, which basically already runs at 100%).

The difference with wind and solar is there is no marginal cost to produce electricity and therefore no reason to turn them off - so surpluses get generated.

That's touted as a benefit when in reality it is a cost. It means instead of electricity costing 3 cents a kWh it could cost as much as 10 cents a kWh. If you find a way to use the electricity, then it drops the cost back to 3 cents a kWh.

...looking at the numbers, it appears a 10x kW overcapacity yields 3x kWh overproduction.

 

[Tom.G]

Here in Southern California, the local electric company is required to sell electricity at cost. One recent bill was approximately:
$24 Generation
$ 8 Delivery

Consumer rates vary according to how much is used relative to a seasonally adjusted 'baseline.' Because of that, both of those numbers may double for the same usage depending on the time of year.

So, the electric companies may not get their "pound of flesh" during excess generation, but they will get at least 1/3 of a pound!

 

[Keith_McClary]

$24 Generation
$ 8 Delivery

Mine is:
$15.46 "Energy Charge"
$ misc. fees
___________________
$67.81 Total

Natural gas is even worse.

 

[BWV]

You all are whining about <$100 monthly electric bills?

electricity is relatively cheap in TX ~11 cents / kwh but need a whole lot more for A/C

 

[cybernetichero]

I am in southern Adelaide South Australia. We have a massive Tesla battery to store renewable energy and recently I saw a headline (take it for what you will) that SA was at 60% renewables. My last electricity bill was AU$200 and some for the December quarter.
I live alone, watch TV, and run an old second hand desktop PC playing 2-7 hours a day of (currently) Morrowind on Steam and the usual kitchen appliances (stove is gas, more on that in a minute). I don't have AC and love the old school oscillating fan at my desk when I need it. I'm 100m above sea level so not always but often 10 deg cooler than nearby seal level locations
My electricity is supplied by a gas mining company (I should point out that I signed on with them nearly 20 years ago when gas was the "green" option, indeed, their logo is a stylised green, leaf-like swirl, but they had a different, more traditional logo then) and I get a different bill from them for the gas hot water and stove which is usually about 1/4 to 1/2 the electricity bills.
The way things are set up right now Australia sells Natural Gas wholesale to the rest of the world but Australians have to buy it at the peak price and there is much argy-bargy in Canberra about it but not much appetite for upsetting the apple-cart. Now that Murdoch is an American citizen Australia's three most powerful people are resource magnates and good donors (to both sides).
My neighbours but one put up solar panels only yesterday (made my dog bark). A lot of people are but I'm short the lump sum needed otherwise I would do it in a heartbeat, I have a big, north facing section of roof just perfect for it. There's a rebate but you got to pay for the installation first to claim that back.