Exponential growth and exponential distribution

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the relationship between exponential growth and exponential distribution in the context of a branching process where individuals produce offspring according to a Poisson distribution. Participants explore how the number of offspring can be modeled and the implications of using an exponential distribution in this scenario.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses confusion about how the number of offspring can be exponentially distributed, questioning the relationship between exponential growth and exponential distribution.
  • Another participant suggests starting with the randomness of population growth, asking whether the offspring count is binary or multi-valued and how it relates to time frames.
  • A participant clarifies that the number of offspring is based on a Poisson distribution, noting that after several generations, the distribution of individuals may follow an exponential distribution, but they are uncertain about this claim.
  • One participant connects the exponential distribution to its memoryless property, suggesting that the offspring distribution remains consistent across generations, but they express uncertainty about whether this is the correct connection.
  • Another participant proposes that the growth pattern may be fractal in nature, relating it to the properties of the exponential distribution.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on how the exponential distribution models the number of offspring, and multiple competing views remain regarding the relationship between exponential growth and distribution.

Contextual Notes

There are limitations in the assumptions made about the offspring distribution and the definitions of exponential growth versus exponential distribution, which remain unresolved in the discussion.

jimmy1
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I'm a bit confused about exp growth and exp distribution. Suppose I have a branching process situation, where there are n individuals in generation 0, and each individual produces a random number of offspring, according to some distribution (say Poisson), at each generation. Now, then after a certain number of generations, say generation n+1, the number of copies an individual leaves behind will be either 0 or exponentially distributed.

What I don't understand is how the number of copies will be exponentially distributed. I understand that if each an individual leaves more than 1 offspring in each generation then there will be exponential growth for that particular type of individual, but isn't exponential growth different from the exponential distribution.
From my understanding an exponential distribution gives the distribution of the time until a certain event occurs, with rate "lamda".

So in the situation described above what is this "event", and what should "lamda" be??

So basically I'm trying to understand, how does the exponential distribution model the number of offspring left by an individual??
 
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I think one could start from asking what is random about the population growth you proposed. Is it a binary proposition, 0=no offspring, 1=positive number of offsprings? Is it multi-valued, number of offspring = 1, 2, ..., each outcome having a probability attached to it? Is it the number of offsprings within a time frame (e.g. lifespan of the parent)?
 
Basically the number of offspring an inidividual leaves behind is a random number, based on a Poisson distribution. It could be 0, 1, 2 ... etc. (You are given the mean offspring number)

Say you have 10 populations, and each population starts off with 1 person. Everyone then dies (at the same time), and leaves a Poisson distributed number of offspring, (which is the next generation). These offspring then die and again each person leaves a Poisson distributed number of offspring. This process continues for n generations.
So after n generations each population will be at some random number of individuals. Now the distribution of these numbers after n generations, I am told follows an exponential distribution?? And this is what I don't really understand, as in how does the exponential distribution describe the number of offspring left, as I taught the exponential distribution only describes waiting times for a certain event??

(Also the mean offspring number does not change throughout the whole process)
 
The only relation I can see with the exp. dist. is the memoryless property. Exp. dist. is the only continuous dist. with (and is characterized by) the property that its graph over [t, infinity) is identical to its graph over [0, infinity) for any t > 0. In your example, if you remove the first m generations, the distribution of the offspring emanating from anyone individual in anyone population after g generations starting with the m+1st gen. will be identical to the distribution of the offspring emanating from the original Adam or Eve in that population after g generations starting with the 1st gen. (Wouldn't it?) I am not sure that this is the answer; but it is the only connection that I can make to the exp. dist.

I guess the growth pattern in your question may be said to be fractal, in that sense.
 
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