Since we're citing the reports from "18 US intelligence agencies", I think we might want to take a look at exactly what these agencies are. As it happens, the US Director of National Intelligence has posted a
membership list of such organizations which numbers - you guessed it: 18.
But before I post this list, let's take a look at how it was that all 18 were tasked with coming up with an assessment. Even before Biden took office, there was an issue over what the US intelligence community knew about this - and this is where the "low confidence that is was spread naturally" came out. Of course, that just begs the question - why was their confidence low. Unfortunately, the answer certainly lies behind "sources and methods" - the most important elements of National Security Information.
So a "solution" mentioned and apparently adopted was to disseminate the raw information to 18 agencies that have personnel cleared for all the required classification compartments. I suppose it was suppose to answer the question of what most people might conclude if they had all the information available to the US intelligence community.
So here's the list - quoted from the website above:
The U.S. Intelligence Community is composed of the following 18 organizations:
- Two independent agencies—the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA);
- Nine Department of Defense elements—the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the National Security Agency (NSA), the National Geospatial- Intelligence Agency (NGA), the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), and intelligence elements of the five DoD services; the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Space Force.
- Seven elements of other departments and agencies—the Department of Energy’s Office of Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence; the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis and U.S. Coast Guard Intelligence; the Department of Justice’s Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Drug Enforcement Agency’s Office of National Security Intelligence; the Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research; and the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis
Here's my opinion just based on what I know of the working of government - though I did have to look up that DEA group.
ODNI: This group routinely handles reports from all of the other 17 organizations. They should be able to look at the information and place it in its appropriate category. In all likelihood, if it found itself with a different conclusion that the CIA, it would have asked the CIA for clarification.
CIA: The CIA will have whatever resources it needs to evaluate this intelligence. In fact, when it's important enough, the CIA has all of those other agencies available as resources.
DIA: The DIA may well look at this as a potential Biological Order Of Battle issue. If US troops encountered the Chinese or China-back forces, should we expect bio weapons. Certainly a degree of paranoia is appropriate.
NSA: Certainly the NSA was a key contributor to the intelligence package that was being passed around. Would they have give material that they sourced undo weight? Given their expertise and what parts of the package they could understand, how could an NSA employee avoid such bias?
NGA and NRO: I can just imagine the conversation when this hit their desks. Who in this organization are we going to give this to?
Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Space Force: Even the newly formed Space Force? Perhaps they asked Elon Musk what he thought. In all cases, they would have taken the task seriously.
Department of Energy’s Office of Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence: They could judge the report by China's reputation alone.
Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis: They would be a consumer of the original CIA report. If they didn't agree, they would have discussed it with the CIA.
U.S. Coast Guard Intelligence: Certainly, if you're looking for a Joe Sixpack opinion, this is as good a place as any. But really, who in the Coast Guard is going to understand the biological evidence - and how much weight should be applied to it?
FBI: This is a good source for a second opinion. They would have all of the resource needed to evaluate the raw intelligence data.
DEA's Office of National Security Intelligence: I had to look this one up. My guess is that they could populate a small team among their 680+ to do something reasonable in the way of an opinion. They may even have a scientist or two with relevant experience.
Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research: Excuse my for some sarcasm here, but the first thing that comes to mind is Hillary Clinton and her penchant for convenient communications over securing classified information. They certainly have involvement in this issue, but I wonder if anyone there even bother to read the full intelligence package. Whether they did or not, I'm sure they would have responded to the President's request diplomatically.
Department of the Treasury’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis: No background in Biology, but they would have taken the task seriously and likely responded with some enthusiasm.