COVID Get Vaccinated Against the Covid Delta Variant

[CarlB]

I'm feeling a little better about ADE, thanks.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I do not believe the R = 13 number.

Where did you get the R = 13 number? In the CDC documents cited in post #229, it looks like the range is 5-9. Given an initial estimate of R₀ for the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain of ~ 3, these figures are consistent with published, peer-reviewed studies that examine data of the spread of various variants and estimate that the Delta variant spreads about twice as effectively as the original variant (e.g. https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.24.2100509).

Reason 4: I know that we should believe whatever the CDC says (because Science!) and not look at the data (which is anti-Science) but I can't help but look at the data. I also hate to keep returning to Ontario, but they do the best job of presenting data.

The infectious period is 8-10 days. Call it 9. Delta was ~5% of the cases on May 10. 78 days is 8.7 infectious periods and 13^8.7= 5 billion. That's crazy high. Put another way, from a single infected individual in under two months the entire province can be infected in under 2 months.

Now, I hear you say, "everybody knows that exponentials cannot go on forever". But if we're past the point where exponentials make sense, and R is no longer useful, why is the CDC using it? "Too good to check". What is the value in reporting not what R actually is, but what it would be in some counterfactual world?

And what is R? Let's ask the Canadians.

View attachment 286920

Note that Ontario enforces universal masking requirements, so the data reflects vaccination + masking. The data cannot be used to conclude that vaccination w/o masking is sufficient to contain the spread of the Delta variant.

Let's look at another country in the news, the Netherlands. They had a delta spike:
View attachment 286921

And you can see that R is in fact higher - the leading edge is sharper.
OK, so how many people died?

View attachment 286922
There you go.

This also illustrates the problem with the focus on "cases", which is really defined as "anyone who tests positive, irrespective of the degree of symptom severity, or indeed, if there are any symptoms at all. Covid didn't get 150x less dangerous in a year. Vaccines made it less dangerous, but not 150x (half the population is fully vaccinated0 less dangerous. You are seeing the results of more screening.

Here, I agree with you. Consistent with the clinical trial data and many real world observational studies, vaccination greatly reduces the risk of severe disease, hospitalization and death from COVID-19. However, these aren't the only factors to consider. Part of the rationale for the recommending vaccinated individuals to wear masks indoors in areas of high transmission is to prevent the evolution of new strains that can potentially evade immunity.

Is Delta more dangerous than other strains? Looks like it. Is it so much more dangerous that new drastic steps are necessary? That seems to be what the CDC (Science!) is telling us. but not what the data (anti-Science) is.

The CDC has changed its recommendations to recommend that fully vaccinated people wear masks indoors in areas of high transmission. This is less restrictive than the universal masking requirements in Ontario, which you cite as a good example of an area keeping SARS-CoV-2 transmission in check (in fact, your rather pesky data set would suggest that the CDC should institute more strict masking requirements). Requiring masks indoors (only in areas of high transmission) does not seem like a very drastic step to me. The cost (wearing a mask indoors) seems very low, while the benefit (lowering overall rates of transmission and lowering the risk of new variants evolving) seems much higher than the inconvenience of having to wear a mask indoors.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Where did you get the R = 13 number?

Seems to be what the media is running with. But for the same reason it's not 13, it's not 9.

The data cannot be used to conclude that vaccination w/o masking is sufficient to contain the spread of the Delta variant.

I never claimed that. And as far as the various "seems to mes" in your message, it almost sounds like you agree with me - this is intended to promote good behavior, even if not exactly true.

 

[OmCheeto]

Guessing the Delta variant having a higher R_0 value is due to current mitigating circumstances?
The growth slopes from the UK for both deaths and cases seem to match fairly well, but the Delta variant has a lower slope than the original variant attack.

 

[atyy]

Guessing the Delta variant having a higher R_0 value is due to current mitigating circumstances?
The growth slopes from the UK for both deaths and cases seem to match fairly well, but the Delta variant has a lower slope than the original variant attack.

I think that is because the UK is was quite highly vaccinated for Delta. Vaccination reduces Delta transmission by 40-80%. The increased R0 is supported, but likely overestimated by https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.24.2100509. It is overestimated in part because it is contaminated by looking at transmission in populations with some immunity from previous infections or vaccinations, and the transmission advantage may be due immunity causing to a larger decrease in Alpha transmission than Delta transmission (whereas we would like to know what R0 is without immunity, like for the original strain). With an attempt to have immunity taken into account, it is estimated that the R0 for Delta is 1.1 to 1.4x higher than for Alpha: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-637724/v1. If original R0 is 2-3, and using 1.3-1.7x for Alpha, and 1.1-1.4x for Delta, a rough estimate for Delta R0 would be 3-7.

There is also discussion in the Eurosurveillance paper about whether factors like generation time affect their estimate. So it may be that having more infected people in a short time with Delta is not only due to a change in R0, but also a change in generation time.

 

[morrobay]

The infectious period is 8-10 days. Call it 9. Delta was ~5% of the cases on May 10. 78 days is 8.7 infectious periods and 13^8.7= 5 billion. That's crazy high. Put another way, from a single infected individual in under two months the entire province can be infected in under 2 months.

The infectious period, the time between infection events in an infector-infectee pair in a transmission chain called the generation interval is about 3.5 days . About one day less than serial interval: time between symptoms in infector-infectee pair. Because there is pre symptom transmission. So the R0 above would be less. 78days/3.5 day gen.interval = 22 infectious periods.I.e. R0^22 less than R0^8.6 when calculating R0: initial infections (R0)^inf.per. = final infections. Scroll to graph.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220301193

 

[atyy]

Part of the rationale for the recommending vaccinated individuals to wear masks indoors in areas of high transmission is to prevent the evolution of new strains that can potentially evade immunity.

But presumably not the main reason? I think it's a very debatable reason, because protection from severe disease depends mainly on T-cells, and these seem to hardly be affected by the variants.

I think a better reason is that hospitals in some parts of the US are filling up, and it would be good to slow down transmission so that hospitals are not so close to capacity, and also to buy time for more people to be persuaded to be vaccinated. Since vaccinated people transmit the virus (ability of vaccines to prevent infection against Delta is 40-80%, and CT levels suggest vaccinated people who are infected transmit as easily as unvaccinated people who are infected), asking them to mask indoors if they are in an area with substantial or high transmission might help obtain the desired reduction in transmission.

 

[atyy]

Seems to be what the media is running with. But for the same reason it's not 13, it's not 9.

I agree the chickenpox line is misleading, since it's at the higher end of the range shown on the same slide (not sure if they intended this to be part of the public messaging, since many news reports describe this as an internal document, they may have been sloppy here). But if you look at slide 21, the considerations have been based on R0 = 5.
https://context-cdn.washingtonpost..../7335c3ab-06ee-4121-aaff-a11904e68462.#page=1

 

[atyy]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1
Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine-breakthrough infections: a multi-center cohort study
Po Ying Chia, Sean Ong, ..., Barnaby Edward Young
"PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were similar between both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals."

 

[Astronuc]

The phrase, "What does not kill me makes me stronger" is a translation of Was mich nicht umbringt macht mich stärker, which is part of aphorism number 8 from the "Maxims and Arrows" section of Friedrich Nietzsche's Twilight of the Idols (1888). Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/What_does_not_kill_me_makes_me_stronger

One of my close friends and colleagues would often repeat the phrase, "What doesn't kill you makes you stronger".

I just read a modification of the phrase which seems appropriate for SARS-Cov-2 -

"What doesn't kill you mutates and tries again".

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

In Israel, the population is highly vaccinated, and the third dose will mainly be to try to raise protection against severe disease from the low 90s to the high 90s in a vulnerable population

In the report it looks differently. I seems, that the government wants the vaccinated to become less infectious to mitigate the virus spreading:

Israel will begin offering a third shot of the Pfizer (PFE.N)/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine to people aged over 60, a world first in efforts to slow the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant.
...
Around 57% of Israel's 9.3 million population has been vaccinated. Around 160 people are hospitalized with severe symptoms and daily new infections have spiked to more than 2,000, up from a handful of cases per day a few months ago.

Bennett said his government hoped that stepped-up vaccination efforts would enable Israel to avoid further costly lockdowns.

Source:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...ople-over-60-israeli-news-reports-2021-07-29/

Here what is needed is not so much a third jab, as first jabs.

Sure, but I think that there are people, that are difficult to get convinced to get a jab. Maybe, that helps:

A Fully Vaccinated House

In consultation with medical and public health experts, the Met will be implementing a mandatory vaccination policy for audiences, who will be asked to show proof of vaccination upon arrival at the Met. All artists, orchestra, chorus, and staff will have to do the same. In compliance with the CDC guidelines for fully vaccinated individuals, the audience will be at full capacity, and face masks will be optional.

Source:
https://www.metopera.org/information/our-commitment-to-our-audiences/

 

[atyy]

In the report it looks differently. I seems, that the government wants the vaccinated to become less infectious to mitigate the virus spreading:

Source:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...ople-over-60-israeli-news-reports-2021-07-29/

But how about this report: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news...s-third-jab-campaign-gathers-steam-1.10065710
"Data presented at a discussion Wednesday suggested that the vaccine's effectiveness in preventing severe symptoms among those 60 and older has dropped to 81 percent from 97 percent in January."

The above data is probably not the same as the one in this paper, but this paper give interesting detail about vaccine breakthrough cases in Israel with severe disease: https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(21)00367-0/fulltext
BNT162b2 vaccine breakthrough: clinical characteristics of 152 fully vaccinated hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Israel, Brosh-Nissimov et al, Clinical Microbiology and Infection, 2021
"We found that severe COVID-19 infection, associated with a high mortality rate, might develop in a minority of fully vaccinated individuals with multiple co-morbidities. Our patients had a higher rate of co-morbidities and immunosuppression compared with previously reported non-vaccinated hospitalized individuals with COVID-19. Further characterization of this vulnerable population may help to develop guidance to augment their protection, either by continued social distancing, or by additional active or passive vaccinations."

 

[Astronuc]

July 30 - Just two weeks ago, DuPreez said life was great. She was on vacation in San Diego with her fiancé Michael Freedy, known as “Big Mike” at the M Resort where he worked, and their five kids, ages 17, 10, 7, 6, and 17 months. Freedy's sunburn was so bad, he went to the ER when back in Vegas. A COVID test at the hospital came back positive, but he went home to try and fight it out in isolation. He went back to hospital a second time, but was sent home again.

The third time (in 4 days) he went to the ER, he was admitted. It seemed like he was slightly improving, until he crashed and his lungs failed last Friday (July 30). Freedy had just turned 39.

https://www.kktv.com/2021/07/30/i-should-have-gotten-damn-vaccine-father-5-dies-covid-age-39/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...etting-not-getting-vaccine-fiance/5442240001/

https://news.yahoo.com/florida-covid-17-093-daily-225319998.html

Florida reported 17,093 new COVID cases to the federal government Thursday, the ninth consecutive day of daily COVID cases over 10,000, as the state battles a contagious delta variant coming up against pockets of people who remain unvaccinated and are filling up hospital intensive-care units.

Florida, which represents about 6.5% of the U.S. population, is accounting for about 21% of the country’s new cases, based on the data the state is reporting to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Florida’s seven-day average of new cases was 14,757 as of July 29, levels not seen since January, Florida’s worst month of the pandemic. The state also reported 75 new deaths.

From July 23 to July 29, the number of new Florida resident COVID cases jumped by 110,724, [up from 73,166 new cases and 282 new deaths the prior week].

New York State reported 3050 new cases on Friday, July 30, and the first time above 3000 news cases in one day since May 7. On Saturday, one fatality was recorded in the 10-19 year old age group.

In the face of the delta variant, some are coming around to get the vaccine. But for some, it's too late.

 

[morrobay]

Yes vaccination probably would have saved Mr. Freedy. But probably being not obese would have saved him also.

 

[Evo]

Has anyone read this article?

The virus mutated to allow it to survive better and reproduce faster, including changes to the spike protein, which is used to enter cells. It also changed its surface proteins as if to escape antibodies, even though the patient was so immunocompromised that there were no antibodies present.

"This was puzzling,” said Evgeniia Alekseeva, the joint first author of the paper. "Why would the virus hide from something that is not there? And why would it camouflage its parts that antibodies cannot see anyway?"

Scientists said the virus may have been evolving to escape T-cells, a second part of the immunity system. Although there was no onward transmission of the mutated virus, researchers said other variants could emerge in similar ways.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/virus-used-world-longest-covid-154818412.html

 

[StevieTNZ]

From Harvard University:

Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed what Harvard-affiliated physicians had reported from anecdotal and laboratory evidence: the Delta variant of COVID-19 not only spreads more rapidly than other versions of the virus, it can sicken vaccinated individuals who can then spread the virus to others.

In its “Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,” the CDC on Friday revealed that 75 percent of patients in a cluster of 469 cases in Provincetown, Massachusetts, were vaccinated, a sobering statistic for Americans who only weeks ago were optimistic that the pandemic’s end was in sight.

-- https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/st...-stress-testing-vaccination-amid-delta-surge/

 

[atyy]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/virus-used-world-longest-covid-154818412.html

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-750741/v1
SARS-CoV-2 escape from cytotoxic T cells during long-term COVID-19
Stanevich et al

 

[atyy]

With respect to the reports of posts #8 & #9, are we allowed to feel relief that it's just a few epitopes, with the T cell response still expected to be very robust because it can depend on many, many epitopes?

 

[Evo]

This is a hospital not far from me, it used to be part of my territory when I worked for AT&T and I had to go there several days very other week, if not more often.

In July, more than half of the patients admitted to a Springfield hospital system’s intensive care unit with Coronavirus died, according to a hospital official.

Five days into August, the Coronavirus has killed 17 patients, he said. As of Thursday, there were 144 COVID-10 patients across the hospital system.

As of Thursday, none of the patients in the ICU or on ventilators are fully vaccinated, Frederick said. Overall, 93% of those admitted to the hospital with the Coronavirus are not vaccinated.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-half-covid-patients-springfield-165623184.html

 

[nsaspook]

From Harvard University:-- https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/st...-stress-testing-vaccination-amid-delta-surge/

Be careful of using that percentage as some sort of actual vaccinated risk assessment here.

https://garycornell.com/2021/07/28/...s-are-among-the-vaccinated-is-a-bs-statement/

Suppose you see a headline that says something like: “50% of our 100,000 new Covid cases were among the vaccinated”? Should you be concerned that the vaccine isn’t working anymore? The answer is: absolutely not – well, not without a lot more information. This statement is an example of using numbers to confuse rather than illuminate. And the best way to understand that this is almost certainly a totally meaningless statistic, perhaps even rising to the level of complete BS, is to use a technique I’ve explained before – think about what a statement would mean at extremes.

http://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/brenner/mar7588/Papers/barhillel-acta1980.pdf

 

[nsaspook]

Unfortunately it looks like the NSW Delta outbreak is not containable with current measures.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw...alls-for-circuit-breaker-20210806-p58gm6.html

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the state must learn to live with COVID-19 as the number of people in hospital with the virus doubled within a week and the nation’s chief medical officer called for a circuit-breaker to halt the spread across Sydney.
...
“It’s obviously a challenge for us to get down to that number, but that has to be our aspiration. We have to try and get down as low as we can,” she said.

“We know, given where the numbers are and the experience of Delta overseas, that we now have to live with Delta in one way or another – and that’s pretty obvious. But the higher the vaccination rate, the safer we all are and the more free we will be”.

November 2020 circuit-breaker

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-54983104

• People must stay home and cannot leave for exercise
• Mask-wearing to be mandatory in public
• All schools and universities closed except for children of essential workers
• Shops, restaurants, cafes and pubs closed with no takeaway options
• Bans on regional travel

 

[Astronuc]

The death of the 49-year-old Greenwood native, father of two, community leader, mountain biker and outdoorsman, has rattled this western Arkansas town, where it seems like nearly everyone knew Mr. Lejong. It comes amid a spate of other recent deaths and skyrocketing hospitalizations in a region where many are deeply skeptical of the Covid-19 vaccines, and doctors and political leaders are trying everything to persuade a reluctant populace to take them.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/neighbors-deaths-from-covid-19-have-arkansas-town-reassessing-vaccines/ar-AAN4jvS
Mr. Lejong would be considered at low risk for mortality, but at higher risk than 20 or 30-somethings.

Sebastian County, which includes Greenwood and the much larger city of Fort Smith, has had 292 Covid-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic and currently has an estimated 737 cases, according to the state department of health, and has been adding about 73 new cases each day. The state overall has been adding more than 2,800 new cases daily and has more than 1,000 patients in hospitals, near the previous high level in January. Deaths, a lagging indicator, have been averaging more than 20 a day, and the percentage of Covid-19 tests returning positive results hit an all-time high last month.

The county had less than 36% of residents 12 and older fully immunized as of last week, compared with 42% in Arkansas overall and 50% in the U.S. overall.

In the UK, an unvaccinated man, who was considered fit, died after of month of battling COVID-19.

An unvaccinated 42-year-old fitness fanatic who regularly climbed mountains and competed in the ironman has died of COVID-19, his family said.

John Eyers, a construction expert and bodybuilding competitor from the seaside town of Southport, England, died last week, one month after catching the virus.

https://news.yahoo.com/42-old-fitness-fanatic-beating-090128572.html

In just two weeks, six members of a Florida church died from Covid-19. All were unvaccinated, their pastor said.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/6-members-of-a-florida-church-died-of-covid-19-in-2-weeks-pastor-says-on-sunday-the-church-held-a-vaccination-clinic/ar-AAN5fb9

Four of the deaths were members under the age of 35 and that they were all healthy -- but that none of them were vaccinated. One 24-year-old kid, . . .

Another 15-20 church members were in the hospital battling Covid and around 10 members were at home with the virus . . .

On Friday, August 6, Florida reported 134,506 new Covid-19 cases over the last week, more than any other 7-day period during the pandemic.

Again, folks under 35 would be considered low risk for serious consequences, but then the Delta variant seems more aggressive.

All nations are still in the middle of this pandemic. Worldwide, there have been more than 4.2 Million deaths attributed to Covid-19. But now we have vaccines.From April 01, Measuring Mortality In The Pandemics Of 1918–19 And 2020–21
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20210329.51293/full/

Back in April, the US had almost 550k deaths, and at the beginning of August, the US passed 600k deaths, and it's still climbing, perhaps to 700k.

Back in October 2000, there was an article about a "UC Berkeley demographer finding undetected tuberculosis may have been real killer in 1918 flu epidemic".
https://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2000/10/25_flu.html

Noymer's analysis shows that the 500,000 people who died in 1918 were almost exactly the number who would have been in various stages of disease from TB. Using pre-1918 death rates, Noymer calculated that 500,000 more TB deaths would have occurred between 1918 and 1932 had there never been a flu epidemic.

As a result of the excess death among men in 1918, a healthier male population was left, said Noymer. For years afterward, the life expectancy of men, which usually lagged behind women by six years, moved up to more closely resemble the female pattern. It was this startling change that sparked Noymer's research, when he saw something no demographer had ever noticed before - a precipitous drop in 1919 in the gender differential from six to two years.

Comorbidities, such as a pulmonary disease or infection, seem to be a key factor with SARS-Cov-2.

The CDC puts the mortality in 1918 at about 675k.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm

With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.

The original Alpha variant was bad enough, but now the Delta variant is worse. However, infections of vaccinated folks appears to be milder than in those who have not been vaccinated.

Please encourage family and friends to get the vaccine against SARS-Cov-2

 

[Astronuc]

Half of Texas Trauma Hospitals Run out of ICU Beds as COVID Surges​

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/half-of-texas-trauma-hospitals-run-out-of-icu-beds-as-covid-surges/ar-AAN9Z5C

Half of the state of Texas' 22 trauma service areas say they have run out of intensive care unit (ICU) beds, with numerous major hospitals in cities like Houston and Laredo reporting 95 percent capacity rates.

The Harris Health System in Houston reported Tuesday that one out of four patients in its two hospitals tested positive for COVID-19, prompting administrators to begin preparing tents for a surge of overflowing patients. In Austin, five hospitals reported hitting 90 percent capacity rates and two hospitals said they have zero available ICU beds. Half of Texas' 22 trauma service areas said they have 10 or fewer ICU beds available as of Sunday as nearly 10,000 COVID-19 patients have flooded into the state's ICUs.

And from a family member involved in this mess, Texas Children's Hospital (TCH, in Houston) has to convert another floor to ICU/Covid because so many children are becoming ill with Covid! I don't have all the detail, but it's a very troubling situation, and it is preventable through vaccinations and various protective measures. TCH was taking adults in June.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/ne...admitting-adult-patients-because-15359004.php
https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...rise/285-5aa0a132-a318-4a41-81b3-6659086c2ef7Locally, a month ago (30 days), we had 55 active cases and 4 people hospitalized. Today we have over 500 active cases and 21 people hospitalized (during July there were 2 to 4 hospitalized). Until this weekend, we had no deaths since early July, now 3 have died due to Covid in three days.

Edit/update: Since this post yesterday, we've had two more fatalities due to Covid-19. Three more people have been hospitalized.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-scientist-who-came-out-of-retirement-to-help-fight-covid-loses-his-own-battle/ar-AANbZFm
Scientist who came out of retirement to help fight Covid loses his own battle

Thomas Hodge III logged on from his hospital bed for what would be his last weekly Zoom meeting with some 200 scientific collaborators. Gaunt and unshaven, he conferred with the group on how to defeat this country’s latest surge of Covid-19 — the virus Hodge’s body was battling a second time.

The prominent immunologist died two days later of complications from the disease.

Edit/Update:
Newsweek had a sensational headline - Man's Entire Family Dies of COVID in the Same Week After Refusing to Get Vaccinated
https://www.newsweek.com/mans-entir...me-week-after-refusing-get-vaccinated-1617994
It was two parents (ages 73 and 65) and a brother (40s?). The brother is described as healthy.

A 28-year-old unvaccinated man in Georgia died from COVID-19, while his wife, who had received one shot, survived. "He was deep into TikTok conspiracy theories and, for him, he just didn't want to get [the shot]," said the 25-year-old widow. After becoming ill, she said he had changed his stance on the vaccine, wishing he had gotten it.

On Friday, a 22-year-old in New Orleans died after contracting COVID-19. He was unvaccinated, despite his mother's pleas. "Don't stop talking to your kids. Don't stop asking them to be vaccinated," said his mother to a news outlet.

According to data from CDC, 46272 children in the US were hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first week of August, 2021.

From the AP: Oregon issues mask mandate, warns of hospital surge

The mask mandate comes as the state on Wednesday set a second consecutive record of hospitalized COVID-19 patients — 665 people. The previous record of 622 people hospitalized was set during November’s surge, when vaccine doses were not yet available.

Intensive care unit beds across the state are about 90% full, and some hospital regions have less than five ICU beds available, Brown said.

“When our hospitals are full, there will be no room for additional patients needing care –– whether for COVID-19, a heart attack or stroke, a car collision, or a variety of other emergency situations," Brown said.

In addition, on Tuesday the Oregon Health Authority reported 2,329 new cases, the state's highest daily case total since the pandemic started.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/30-year-old-with-covid-gives-birth-holds-baby-girl-just-once-dies-days-later/ar-AANeE2p

A 30-year-old Florida woman with COVID-19 ended up in the intensive care unit after holding her newborn baby just once, and died days later.

Kristen McMullen gave birth to her daughter via emergency C-section on July 27. She was able to cradle her newborn, named Summer Reign, for a few minutes before she was rushed off to the ICU, McMullen's aunt Melissa Syverson said.
. . . .

McMullen, of West Melbourne, developed COVID-19 symptoms about three weeks before her due date and was later hospitalized with with coronavirus-related pneumonia, Syverson wrote on a GoFundMe page.

She was sent home after four days but returned within 48 hours struggling to breathe and concerned for her unborn baby, Syverson wrote.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/taking-a-toll-pediatric-covid-cases-surge/ar-AANeqmU

In the last week, 94,000 new pediatric COVID-19 cases were reported, representing 15% of all reported new infections. Similarly, pediatric COVID-19-related hospital admissions are at their highest level since the onset of the pandemic.

 

[Astronuc]

The Delta variant is driving a new wave of cases nationwide, pushing the daily total to the highest level since February, as the virus spreads among the unvaccinated. In Texas, the number of new cases has more than doubled in the past two week. Hospitals are swamped, and there is a new, troubling uptick of young patients: some 240 across the state [Texas].

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/inside-a-san-antonio-hospital-children-battle-for-breath/ar-AANfSiG

Dr. Abhishek Patel, who works in the hospital’s pediatric I.C.U., walked in and out of a room where a 6-month-old and a 2-month-old battled severe Covid infections, breathing with the aid of supplemental oxygen. This week alone, he said, two teenagers, who had other underlying health problems, died with the virus.

Edit/update: In Florida, a teen died shortly after developing Covid-19

Jo'Keria Graham was 17 years old and a student at Columbia High School. Her brother, Jaylen Brown, said her death "just happened out of nowhere."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-teens-covid-related-death-just-happened-out-of-nowhere-brother/ar-AANibRV

 

[atyy]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-scientist-who-came-out-of-retirement-to-help-fight-covid-loses-his-own-battle/ar-AANbZFm
Scientist who came out of retirement to help fight Covid loses his own battle

The article says "At his home on St. Simons Island, Ga., Hodge beat the virus last year. He hoped that bout would stave off a future infection, especially because a medical condition meant he could not get vaccinated."

I wonder if that is accurate, since apart from an allergy to the ingredients in a vaccine, there is no reason not to be vaccinated. And if one is allergic to the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines, then usually one is still eligible for the Janssen vaccine (or is it rare for both to available in a place)? Also, usually a first infection will mean the second infection is mild. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...-exemptions-medical-reasons-aren-t-persuasive

The story makes me wonder whether his first infection was correctly diagnosed.

There is new research suggesting that even if one discovers one is allergic to the ingredients in a vaccine after the first shot, that the second shot can be safely given to give higher protection against COVID.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-per...er-second-dose-mrna-covid-vaccine-study-finds

 

[Astronuc]

A Mississippi eighth grader died on Saturday just hours after receiving a positive test for COVID-19.
The girl attended junior high school, which began on August 6, just a week before her death, the Mississippi Free Press reported.

https://www.businessinsider.com/mis...-of-covid-hours-after-testing-positive-2021-8

More than 1,900 children hospitalized with COVID-19 in the US as country battles the Delta surge
https://www.businessinsider.com/cov...ildren-in-us-hospitals-as-delta-surges-2021-8

as students and employees in the school district tested positive within the first three days of classes, the school district reversed course. “After much consideration for the welfare of our children, Smith County Schools will require all personnel and students to wear a mask,” the district announced on Aug. 10. By Friday, at least 76 students and 11 educators had tested positive; 411 students and 11 educators were quarantined by that point.

Locally, an additional two persons have died from Covid-19, bringing the total deaths to 8 in the past week. This after a month without a death due to Covid-19. In a month, we've gone from about 80 cases to nearly 700 active cases, and hospitalizations increased from 2 to 22. It might have been 30 cases, if 8 patients had not died.

Edit/update: Now 28 hospitalizations as of yesterday, and three new deaths, making 11 deaths from Covid-19 in the past 9 days.

 

[atyy]

https://kottke.org/21/08/one-womans-mission-to-get-vaccines-to-her-rural-alabama-town

Oliver’s charm with the skeptics is remarkable, but so is her determination to bring the vaccine to her underserved town. Most of the women and men Oliver talked to leaped at the opportunity to sign up for the vaccine. On vaccine day, they rolled down their car windows to thank her. “We appreciate y’all giving it to us, because a lot of people don’t really know where to go to take these vaccines,” one woman tells her. Vaccine hesitancy in Black communities has been harped on in the media, but those conversations can gloss over questions of availability. Levine told me that they were struck by how many people had put off vaccination for logistical rather than ideological reasons. In Panola, he says, they regularly heard people say, “I want the shot. How do I get this? I don’t have a car; how am I going to get forty miles to the closest hospital and back?”

The result? In a state with one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country, 94% of adults in Panola have been vaccinated, due in part to Oliver’s and Russ-Jackson’s efforts.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Covid is back in NZ - https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...y-case-being-investigated-by-health-officials

Whether its delta or not, not sure. What action will the Govt take? Probably lock down, Auckland or the entire country.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Well NZ is heading into a level four alert level lockdown at 11.59pm tonight for 3 days, excluding Auckland which will be for 7 days. The Govt. is assuming the variant is delta, though that won't be known for sure until early tomorrow morning.