COVID Get Vaccinated Against the Covid Delta Variant

[pinball1970]

There's no other way out for the country as a whole. I don't know that we are talking about 50 deaths (*), but certainly the overall impact of 5 million unvaccinated children attending school (or trying to) and spreading COVID is the problem.

Let's say that you really don't want to vaccinate children, then I suggest you need a lockdown for all children and close the schools.

If you don't do either, then the risk is that several million of those children get COVID for real - and infect several million adults. And, by a lack of courage to actually do something, we condemn ourselves to another grim six months for the entire country with no prospect of getting COVID under control. That carries its own risks of undermining what we have achieved.

And, if we lose another 10,000 people of all ages between now and next April, then you can hardly complain.

(*) PS There were 147 deaths in the UK just today. And, the full impact of the school's returning hasn't hit England yet.

I have been in favour of every lock down in the UK so far. Edit.

 

[PeroK]

I have been in favour of every lock down in the UK so far. Edit.

Me too. But not the next one. They should lock down only those who aren't vaccinated and not the rest of us.

 

[nsaspook]

There are actual financial penalties for schools that allow masks. It keeps changing due to the ongoing litigation, I'm going to bed, I can post articles about what is happening tomorrow, but I hesitate to do so because all of the articles name the governor that is behind all of it. If we agree not to get into politics, and just look at the problems, it would be ok.

I think you will find the words mask mandate is associated with possible financial penalties for schools too. It's not a discussion of the politics of the states policies, just the facts of the matter.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/us/florida-schools-mask-mandates.html

The Florida Department of Education has withheld funds from two school districts that made masks mandatory in classrooms this fall, state officials announced on Monday, making good on a threat that local school boards that required students to wear masks would be punished financially.
...
The penalty applies to two school districts — Alachua County and Broward County — that went ahead with mask mandates in defiance of the governor’s order.

 

[Jonathan Scott]

Today's UK reported Covid deaths (from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) brings the total reported in the last 7 days to 983. That is equivalent to a yearly rate of over 51,000.

There were suggestions a couple of weeks ago that a government cost-benefit analysis concluded that it would have too much impact on the economy to have any new restrictions unless the death rate exceeded the equivalent of 50,000 a year:
https://inews.co.uk/news/boris-john...l-covid-deaths-as-an-acceptable-level-1170069

This level has now been passed and there are no signs of any attempt to prevent it rising further.

 

[Evo]

I think you will find the words mask mandate is associated with possible financial penalties for schools too. It's not a discussion of the politics of the states policies, just the facts of the matter.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/us/florida-schools-mask-mandates.html

During the night while laying awake, I decided not to post the articles due to the fact that this is a thread about the Covid Delta Variant and I am already guilty of beginning to pull it into the POLITICS of Covid.

It's the governor's ban on school mask mandates. The upshot is the state can resume its efforts to impose financial penalties on the 13 Florida school boards currently defying the mask ban

CNN -
Florida appeals court rules in favor of Governor, allowing his ban on mask mandates in schools to stand

I will not be furnishing links, anyone that wishes to learn about the ban of the school mandates and the financial penalties for doing so may google them. We will stick with the thread topic, sorry.

 

[Astronuc]

SunSentinel, Sep 10 - Florida reports 2,448 COVID-related deaths for the week, and over 100,000 new cases.

During the same period (September 4-10), NY state had ~221 confirmed deaths.

SunSentinel, Sep 10 - COVID-19 in Florida: 17,854 new cases reported, an increase of 31% from previous day

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/h...2021/269-a40dd20f-b719-44a4-831a-21717d44f335

• Texas Public Schools (2021-22 school year; updated on Fridays with data from the previous Monday-Sunday)
  • Cumulative positive student cases: 73,749, up from 60,527 on Aug. 29
  • Cumulative positive staff cases: 16,213, up from 14,377 on Aug. 29

TEXAS

• 19,486 new cases with a weekly average up to 13,957 per day
  • Down 2.5% from a week ago
  • Up 35% from a month ago
• 400 new deaths reported today
  • 58,332 total to date (since March 2020)
• 13,422 COVID-19 patients in Texas hospitals
  • 9,282 adults regular beds
  • 3,834 adults in ICU
  • 306 kids

 

[nsaspook]

These school case numbers are just horrible. It's possible to have much better numbers with sensible mandates in a population with good vaccine rates.
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/10/1035...ols-vaccinated-covid-outbreaks-none-pediatric

There have been no COVID-19 outbreaks in San Francisco schools since students and educators went back into classrooms on Aug. 16, the San Francisco Department of Public Health announced Thursday, noting that about 90% of children ages 12 to 17 are fully vaccinated.


An outbreak, the department said, means there are "three or more cases in non-related households in which the source of infection occurred at the school, and not another setting."

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The CDC released a new study of vaccine efficacy in the US in the period before Delta was prevalent vs after when Delta was prevalent. The data showed that protection from symptomatic infection dropped from ~90% to ~80% but protection from hospitalization and death did not decline, except among the elderly.

Here are some nice figures from the study, illustrating the results:

Here's a link to the full report

Monitoring Incidence of COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Status — 13 U.S. Jurisdictions, April 4–July 17, 2021
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm?s_cid=mm7037e1_w

Here are some good popular press summaries of the studies:

New U.S. studies released Friday show the COVID-19 vaccines remain highly effective against hospitalizations and death even as the extra-contagious delta variant swept the country.

One study tracked over 600,000 COVID-19 cases in 13 states from April through mid-July. As delta surged in early summer, those who were unvaccinated were 4.5 times more likely than the fully vaccinated to get infected, over 10 times more likely to be hospitalized and 11 times more likely to die, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0210910-vtgzr6hm2nfrpdpdalgbql7dky-story.html

Another CDC study shows that the vaccines endured some erosion as the delta variant became dominant, especially among adults 65 and older, but protection against severe disease and death remained strong, albeit less so in that older group. The CDC analyzed data on more than 600,000 covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths among people 18 and older by vaccination status, reported from April 4 to July 17 in 13 states and cities.

The report estimated that vaccine effectiveness against infection dropped from 90 percent in the first part of that period, when delta had not yet gained significant traction, to less than 80 percent from mid-June to mid-July, when delta began out-competing all other variants of the virus. Effectiveness against hospitalization and death showed barely any decline during the entire period.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/09/10/moderna-most-effective-covid-vaccine-studies/

 

[bhobba]

I mentioned where I am in Brisbane; we likely will go into lockdown due to 5 cases. I predicted this would lead to an increase in vaccinations. Call me Nostradamus:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09...ts-on-alert-but-authorities-hopeful/100455732
'Health authorities say they have been impressed with vaccine uptake over the weekend and are urging people to continue to show up to get the jab, with south-east Queensland so far managing to keep another COVID-19 outbreak at bay.'

We were lucky - it looks like the 5 cases did not seed. They still may, of course. We are not out of the woods yet.

Thanks
Bill

 

[PeroK]

We are not out of the woods yet.

At least you are trying to get out. Our government has decided to set up camp in the woods!

 

[Evo]

@Ygggdrasil, I read that immunocompromised people with 2 doses of Pfizer only had about half of the immunity that a normal healthy person had. Do you know anything about this, their specialist said they need the booster ASAP.

 

[bhobba]

@Ygggdrasil, I read that immunocompromised people with 2 doses of Pfizer only had about half of the immunity that a normal healthy person had. Do you know anything about this, their specialist said they need the booster ASAP.

I, too, am immunocompromised. When I asked my specialist he thought for a while and said - he was not sure. Still, he does not think the pathways affected by my psoriatic arthritis and the Biologic I take are associated with the immune pathways of Covid.

I am not worried personally because I believe, and our government has announced; everyone will get a third shot once everyone has been offered the first two.

Thanks
Bill

 

[nsaspook]

I, too, am immunocompromised. I asked him about this. My specialist thought for a while and said - he was not sure. Still, he does not think the pathways affected by my psoriatic arthritis and the Biologic I take are associated with the immune pathways of Covid.

I am not worried personally because I believe, and our government has announced; everyone will get a third shot once everyone has been offered the first two.

Thanks
Bill

I'm in the club too. My Doc is telling the immunocompromised to get the 3rd shot now before the booster herd jams the shot line.

 

[Evo]

I, too, am immunocompromised. I asked him about this. My specialist thought for a while and said - he was not sure. Still, he does not think the pathways affected by my psoriatic arthritis and the Biologic I take are associated with the immune pathways of Covid.

I am not worried personally because I believe, and our government has announced; everyone will get a third shot once everyone has been offered the first two.

Thanks
Bill

And @nsaspook, I had numbers before that people on biologics or steroids were at about 35-40% of the immunity of a healthy person, I don't know where I put that study.

Here is another article

Not surprisingly, treatment regimen for those who are immunocompromised due to medical treatment is another important variable. The preprint study on multiple types of immunocompromised patients also found a statistically significant correlation between steroid treatment (e.g., prednisone) and failure to mount a detectable antibody response post-vaccination.

Even in immunocompromised patients that have detectable antibodies after vaccination, titers are generally lower than in healthy patients. In a study of patients on immunosuppressive therapy for chronic inflammatory diseases, all patients were seropositive after vaccination, but antibody titers were significantly lower than in healthy controls.

https://asm.org/Articles/2021/August/How-Effective-Are-COVID-19-Vaccines-in-Immunocompr

 

[Astronuc]

Edit/Update: Corrected September dates.
Data from Florida Department of Health
Cumulative deaths and positive cases due to SARS-Cov-2

           Aug 6-12, 2021      Sep 3-9, 2021
Age Group Deaths  Pos Cases   Deaths  Pos Cases
Under 16     10     312934       17     441765
16 - 29     179     677531      307     779829
30 - 39     451     494749      694     580192
40 - 49    1240     437144     1857     509193
50 - 59    3097     411251     4276     472537
60 - 64    2919     160322     3730     184794
65+       32870     381619    37891     439205

Total     40766    2877214    48772    3409165

Just over 8000 deaths alone between August 12 and September 9 (mostly Delta variant and some Mu). Numbers increasing in all age groups.
Hospitalizations are not reported.
Data from http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_p..._archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf (updated each Friday for the week ending Thursday).

https://www.local10.com/news/florida/2021/09/10/florida-covid-latest-data-report/
According to the Florida Hospital Association, 12,262 patients were admitted with COVID across the state on Thursday, that is 12,262 persons were hospitalized. The number seems to be decreasing.

 

[artis]

Well zooming out looking at the whole world this wave seems be dropping both in new case numbers as well as daily deaths etc. It's peak was lower than the peak of the previous one.

 

[bhobba]

At least you are trying to get out. Our government has decided to set up camp in the woods!

The issue here is psychology. While it is under control is exactly when people should be rushing to get vaccinated. But they don't - they are lulled into a false sense of security and only get motivated when it actually is rampant.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Ygggdrasil]

@Ygggdrasil, I read that immunocompromised people with 2 doses of Pfizer only had about half of the immunity that a normal healthy person had. Do you know anything about this, their specialist said they need the booster ASAP.

Here's what the CDC page on COVID-19 vaccines says:

Vaccine effectiveness in immunosuppressed people

Evidence of reduced antibody response to or reduced immunogenicity of COVID-19 mRNA vaccination has been observed in the following groups: people taking certain immunosuppressive medications like rituximab (47-50) or mycophenolate (50-53), people with hematologic cancers (54, 55), and hemodialysis patients (56). At this time, data on vaccine protection in people who are immunocompromised are limited; in addition, the impact of immune suppression on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness may vary by condition.(55, 57) Complete data on which immunocompromising conditions might affect response to COVID-19 vaccination are not available; in addition, there is no established immune correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 so the risk of infection in people who respond incompletely to COVID-19 vaccination cannot be quantified using immunogenicity data. People with immunocompromising conditions, including those taking immunosuppressive medications, should discuss the need for personal protective measures after vaccination with their healthcare provider.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

Here's the CDC recommendation:

CDC recommends that people with moderately to severely compromised immune systems receive an additional dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine at least 28 days after a second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/immuno.html

 

[Evo]

@Ygggdrasil Thank you! Since her specialist said to get the booster I will suggest that she try to get one asap.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/covid-19-deaths-in-delta-surge-hit-younger-unvaccinated-people/ar-AAOnTsG

The seven-day average for newly reported Covid-19 deaths each day recently eclipsed 1,600, up from an average that briefly moved below 220 a day in early July. With roughly 660,000 known Covid-19 deaths to date, the U.S. is on track to soon top the estimated 675,000 deaths that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has linked to the 1918-19 flu pandemic.

Deaths have been concentrated among the unvaccinated, federal data show. The CDC released studies on Friday showing that unvaccinated Americans were 4.6 times as likely to be infected, 10 times as likely to be hospitalized and 11 times as likely to die.

At Tampa General Hospital, about 90% of recent Covid-19 patients were unvaccinated, said Peggy Duggan, chief medical officer at the facility, which is one of Florida’s largest hospitals with more than 1,000 beds. Many patients who did get the shots have compromised immune systems due to organ transplants or cancer treatment, Dr. Duggan said.

Tampa General’s recent Covid-19 patients in intensive care were 46 years old on average, far below the average during prior surges when vulnerable seniors were often hospitalized, Dr. Duggan said. The hospital’s death rate for Covid-19 patients hasn’t changed, sticking around 7%.

Nebraska has finally detected the Mu variant, so it's made its way to all 50 states.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Data from Florida Department of Health
Cumulative deaths and positive cases due to SARS-Cov-2

           Aug 6-12, 2021      Sep 9-16, 2021
Age Group Deaths  Pos Cases   Deaths  Pos Cases
Under 16     10     312934       17     441765
16 - 29     179     677531      307     779829
30 - 39     451     494749      694     580192
40 - 49    1240     437144     1857     509193
50 - 59    3097     411251     4276     472537
60 - 64    2919     160322     3730     184794
65+       32870     381619    37891     439205

Total     40766    2877214    48772    3409165

Just over 8000 deaths alone between August 9 and September 16 (mostly Delta variant and some Mu). Numbers increasing in all age groups.
Hospitalizations are not reported.

https://www.local10.com/news/florida/2021/09/10/florida-covid-latest-data-report/
According to the Florida Hospital Association, 12,262 patients were admitted with COVID across the state on Thursday, that is 12,262 persons were hospitalized. The number seems to be decreasing.

That's a pretty good trick considering that today is September 13

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Long term trends in Florida. New reported cases has definitely dropped. The dates highlighted are random.

 

[Astronuc]

That's a pretty good trick considering that today is September 13

Corrected the dates for September 3-9, as of last Thursday. Still a little over 8000 in one month, or rather 4 weeks/28 days.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Corrected the dates for September 3-9, as of last Thursday. Still a little over 8000 in one month, or rather 4 weeks/28 days.

Yep, they've been averaging about 350 / day over 7 days for the last couple of weeks.

Living in Florida has been running between 4 and 10x more deadly per capita due to Covid, than living in California.

 

[atyy]

Twitter thread: Jeremy Farrar, Director of the Wellcome Trust, interviewed by Kai Kupferschmidt on the transition to endemicity
"But what level of disease and death is deemed acceptable and thus what “endemic” looks like is going to differ from society to society. Farrar has been calling for an honest debate about this: “I think all countries are going to have to have this debate.”"

 

[Astronuc]

The dates highlighted are random.

Oddly, they did the dates every 79 days from 8 March 2020.

 

[Astronuc]

I was looking at the situation in Texas, and I got a confusing picture regarding the demographics.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
Texas September 10, 58,332 fatalities

Age Group Deaths
   <1        10
 1 - 9       16
10 - 19      48
20 - 29     395
30 - 39    1278
40 - 49    3434
50 - 59    7106
60 - 64    5615
65 - 69    7017
70 - 74    7668
75 - 79    7446 
80+       18299

I thought something was amiss, but in the confirmed (positive) cases, the text explains, "Case demographics are based on completed case investigations. Completed case investigations represent approximately 3.2% of all confirmed cases in the state of Texas."
Texas reports 3,198,035 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 617,123 probable cases. So the demographics don't mean much with respect to the age groups.

 

[atyy]

https://www.immunology.org/events/c...ve-are-they-in-people-weakened-immune-systems
COVID-19 vaccines: how effective are they in people with weakened immune systems?
The British Society for Immunology is pleased to hold a free public webinar ‘COVID-19 vaccines: how effective are they in people with weakened immune systems?’ on Wednesday 15 September at 18:00-19:00 BST.

 

[pinball1970]

Twitter thread: Jeremy Farrar, Director of the Wellcome Trust, interviewed by Kai Kupferschmidt on the transition to endemicity
"But what level of disease and death is deemed acceptable and thus what “endemic” looks like is going to differ from society to society. Farrar has been calling for an honest debate about this: “I think all countries are going to have to have this debate.”"

The UK is going give the vaccine to some children in an effort to deal current Delta levels
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57888429
Lock down pre summer we were at 2000 cases per day with about 30 deaths per day
Now its 35,000 and 200 deaths but is not climbing quickly
Acceptable will be? Between 30-50 deaths per day? That represents 12-17,000 deaths per year for the UK, similar to seasonal flu?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The UK is going give the vaccine to some children in an effort to deal current Delta levels
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57888429
Lock down pre summer we were at 2000 cases per day with about 30 deaths per day
Now its 35,000 and 200 deaths but is not climbing quickly

Cheer up. With almost 3x the population, you are doing far better than the State of Florida which has been averaging 350 deaths a day; and with peaks of over a thousand deaths a day.

In Alabama, if you call an ambulance because you're having a stroke or a heart attack, you might not see them for 4 hours.

 

[pinball1970]

Cheer up. With almost 3x the population, you are doing far better than the State of Florida which has been averaging 350 deaths a day; and with peaks of over a thousand deaths a day.

In Alabama, if you call an ambulance because you're having a stroke or a heart attack, you might not see them for 4 hours.

I read Astronaucs updates too. So Mu, Delta, aging population and more conservative so possibly Vaccine hesitant population?
The paper from @atyy or @Ygggdrasil from the RS said that targeting the vulnerable in terms of Vaccine may not be as effective as vaccinating 'mixers' as they are passing it around. The paper was very dense so I could only get through the conclusion.
Apologies i will come back and edit this post as I am in transit.

 

[Astronuc]

State of Florida which has been averaging 350 deaths a day;

Florida has an estimated (2019) population of 21.48 million, but maybe higher now.

In contrast, in the month of September, NY State has averaged about 31 deaths per day due to COVID-19. NY State population is ~19.45 million (2019).

 

[pinball1970]

Florida has an estimated (2019) population of 21.48 million, but maybe higher now.

In contrast, in the month of September, NY State has averaged about 31 deaths per day due to COVID-19. NY State population is ~19.45 million (2019).

And that's Vaccine uptake? The fatalities?

 

[Astronuc]

And that's Vaccine uptake? The fatalities?

I haven't seen numbers of fatalities by vaccinated and unvaccinated, but only comments like 90+% are unvaccinated.

New York state reports about 61.8% of total population fully vaccinated, which includes 73.4% of population of ages 18+ (18 and older). https://covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some counties have higher rates of vaccination.
NY State Covid cases - https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n#/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities

In Florida - Total population (age 12 and older) is 19,119,043, with a vaccination rate of 69% as of September 9.
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_p..._archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf (subject to change/update on Friday or Saturday, for the previous week ending each Thursday).

Florida population: All ages 21,975,117 (2021), vaccinated (12 and older) 13,281,666, or 69% of the population.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/florida-covid-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-covid-cases.html

 

[morrobay]

I haven't seen numbers of fatalities by vaccinated and unvaccinated, but only comments like 90+% are unvaccinated.

Between April 1 and September 9 there were 13637 fatalities. Of those 12239 had underlying diseases with most being diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, kidney disease and obesity. 21 were pregnant women. 84% were not vaccinated. However during those months 84%.
about corresponds to the percent of the unvaccinated Thai population. So with almost 90% of fatalities with serious underlying diseases you could conclude that being vaccinated did not provide protection in the 16% of vaccinated fatalities. https://www.thaipbsworld.com/over-84-of-thailands-covid-fatalities-had-not-been-vaccinated/

 

[Ygggdrasil]

So with almost 90% of fatalities with serious underlying diseases you could conclude that being vaccinated did not provide protection in the 16% of vaccinated fatalities.

This assumes that the characteristics of the vaccinated population are the same as the characteristics of the unvaccinated population (e.g. age). Most countries prioritize vaccination of older individuals, who are more vulnerable to death to COVID-19 than younger individuals. If older individuals have a 10x risk of death from COVID-19 relative to the general population and the vaccine is 90% effective at preventing death, one could see similar death rates between older vaccinated individuals and the unvaccinated general population.

 

[Astronuc]

Alberta leader apologizes, imposes restrictions and passport
https://apnews.com/article/lifestyl...rus-pandemic-498d4000ffc7a456f3cd58e7fe916e3e

TORONTO (AP) — The leader of the Canadian province of Alberta apologized Wednesday for his handling of the pandemic and says he’s now reluctantly introducing a vaccine passport and imposing a mandatory work from home order two months after lifting nearly all restrictions.

Alberta declared a public health state of emergency as Premier Jason Kenney said hospitals may run out of beds and staff in intensive care units within 10 days.

“It is now clear that we were wrong, and for that I apologize,” Kenney said.

Indoor dining at pubs and restaurants is now banned.

https://www.Alberta.ca/covid-19-variants.aspx
To date, 4 variants of concern have been identified in Alberta. The B.1.617 variant is the dominant strain in Alberta.

https://www.wral.com/latest-who-reports-big-drop-in-new-coronavirus-infections/19876980/?version=amp

ANCHORAGE, Alaska — Alaska is reporting its highest number of new Coronavirus cases a day after the state’s largest hospital announced it had entered crisis protocol and started rationing care because of a flood of COVID-19 cases.

Officials on Wednesday reported 1,068 new virus infections, which is 13% higher than last week. State officials say 201 Alaskans are hospitalized for COVID-19, and 34 of them are on ventilators.

The state’s chief medical officer says hospitals continue to be stressed and there isn’t capacity for patients who have COVID-19 as well as those with other needs. Statewide, there are about 1,100 non-intensive care unit beds in hospitals, with only 302 available Wednesday. Only 21 of the state's ICU beds are open.

 

[bhobba]

Today's UK reported Covid deaths (from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) brings the total reported in the last 7 days to 983. That is equivalent to a yearly rate of over 51,000.

Australia will not put up with that. If we get levels like that with 95% over 60 vaccinated, 70% for everybody else over 12, plus light measures such as tracing, mask-wearing, social distancing, etc., but not vaccination passes; the government will put much more robust rules in place. I believe we should not open up until 80% vaccinated and have no vaccine passports. We should then work towards 95% over 60 and 90% for the rest. Already MD consultations have proven effective in suburbs of NSW, with vaccination rates now as high as 100% in some postcodes. Local MD's are working flat out, personally going from house to house ensuring vaccination. If we could get nearly 100% voluntary, that would be something. While Australia was slow off the mark, it would be a real feather in our cap. I believe compulsory MD consultations and doctors going house to house is the way to increase vaccine uptake - I'm not too fond of passports, etc. Voluntary is always better. But make no mistake, Australia will introduce more robust measures if necessary like no jab, no government welfare (even though it promised not to) if we get UK type death numbers.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

I'm in the club too. My Doc is telling the immunocompromised to get the 3rd shot now before the booster herd jams the shot line.

I may be too charitable, but I believe in everyone at least being offered two doses before getting the third. As I mentioned in some suburbs, GP's personally visiting people in their homes proves very effective. One multilingual doctor finds that when he explains in the person's native language, it is very effective against vaccine hesitancy. But at 60, it is taking it out of him. He returns home each night exhausted. His wife is worried about his health, but he considers the work vital. Aussies always extoll the unsung hero - the battler as we call them - the person that tries even against nearly impossible odds and never gives up. They still exist. It is humbling. True heroes all, just like those risking their lives to get the vaccine out to remote villages in Nepal.

Thanks
Bill.

 

[bhobba]

Latest Burnet Modelling and assumptions:
https://burnet.edu.au/system/asset/file/4727/210611-COVASIM-3840px.png

With high vaccination rates, the ones really at risk are the small number not vaccinated

Australia has announced once everyone has been offered two doses, third doses will be rolled out - probably early next year. With high vaccination rates and third doses, I think we are in good shape. BTW that is without even light precautions. With those things will be even better.

My conclusion is to vaccinate, vaccinate and then vaccinate more. Sending GP's house to house is the measure I would use to get high vaccination rates. No coercive measures are I think necessary - but we will see.

Thanks
Bill

 

[PeroK]

Looks like the French are serious about vaccinations:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58581682

"About 3,000 health workers in France have been suspended because they have not been vaccinated against Covid-19.
A new rule, which came into force on Wednesday, made vaccination mandatory for the country's 2.7 million health, care home and fire service staff.
But French Health Minister Olivier Véran said on Thursday that "most of the suspensions are only temporary".
Many are now agreeing to get jabbed because "they see that the vaccination mandate is a reality", he said.
The rule applies to all doctors, nurses, office staff and volunteers."

 

[atyy]

Latest Burnet Modelling and assumptions:
https://burnet.edu.au/system/asset/file/4727/210611-COVASIM-3840px.png

With high vaccination rates, the ones really at risk are the small number not vaccinated

I guess it depends on what one means by at risk, since at high rates, a large proportion of deaths will be among the vaccinated, because no vaccine is perfect.

Could I ask you what you think of the Grattan Institute modelling?
https://grattan.edu.au/report/race-to-80/

Is this a decent summary of the discussion in Australia at the moment?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the...-life-after-restrictions-20210910-p58qmp.html

 

[Astronuc]

In one regional hospital of 83 hospitalized with COVID-19, 11 vaccinated (breakthrough), 72 not fully vaccinated (or perhaps unvaccinated), and of those 17 of the non-fully-vaccinated in ICU.

Edit/update: I understand that the state of Idaho (east of Washington) is send critical patients to hospitals in Washington (probably Seattle, and may be Spokane as well?), since they have run out of beds in their major hospitals, and small rural and regional hospitals don't have ICU facilities in many cases.

 

[bhobba]

Could I ask you what you think of the Grattan Institute modelling?
https://grattan.edu.au/report/race-to-80/

Is this a decent summary of the discussion in Australia at the moment?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the...-life-after-restrictions-20210910-p58qmp.html

80% is OK - but 95%+, as detailed in the Burnet model, is what we should aim for. However, opening up at 80% is fine as long as we continue vaccinating, as detailed in the Burnett model. They even think 60% is OK providing vaccinations continue. The Burnett model's only precaution is voluntary but recommended mask-wearing, presumably indoors, because you generally do not catch it in open outdoor spaces.

Yes, it is a reasonable summary. But I am optimistic we will get 95%+ vaccination. Even now many Sydney suburbs have 90% first doses:
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...urb-percentages-interactive-map-vaccine-rates

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

I have been thinking about the various models and looking at the vaccination rates in NSW. Many postcodes have exceptionally high first dose vaccinations, 90%+; virtually all of which will become fully vaccinated. And even in the 90%+ postcodes, first doses are increasing. That I think is essential to opening up. You can open up at lower levels like 70% or 80% two doses with medium restrictions. The first doses will not take too long to become second doses, and over 90%+ fully vaccinated. Authorities can dial the rules back to low limits. When 95%+ then no restrictions except voluntary mask-wearing, social distancing etc., can be used. I am not a believer in vaccine passports within a country because of the difficulty in implementing them. Businesses on the verge of going under would not have much to lose if caught violating it. And at high vaccination rates not sure how effective it would be.

Thanks
Bill

 

[PeroK]

I have been thinking about the various models and looking at the vaccination rates in NSW. Many postcodes have exceptionally high first dose vaccinations, 90%+; virtually all will become fully vaccinated. And even in the 90%+ postcodes, first doses are increasing. That I think is essential to opening up. You can open up at lower levels like 70% or 80% with medium restrictions. It will not take too long for the first doses to become second doses, and over 90%+ fully vaccinated. Authorities can dial the rules back to low restrictions. When 95%+ then no restrictions except voluntary mask-wearing, social distancing etc., can be used. I am not a believer in vaccine passports within a country because of the difficulty in implementing them. Businesses on the verge of going under would not have much to lose if caught violating it. And at high vaccination rates not sure how effective it would be.

Thanks
Bill

Is that 90% of the adult population (over 18's)?

 

[bhobba]

Is that 90% of the adult population (over 18's)?

At the moment, it is over 16's, but over 12's have been approved and should be included IMHO. Interestingly, while the over 12's have only just been approved, their vaccination is quickly proceeding. Eventually, once proven safe, under 12's as well. But for initial opening up over 16's, I think we are okay with moderate and then light restrictions. Brisbane, at the moment, is under moderate limits, and I find them not much trouble - even went to a restaurant last week for the first time in 18 months. I am getting a good feeling about things in Aus.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

Sad story, "An infant died from COVID-19 in Orange County, a sobering first for the county since the pandemic began about 18 months ago."
https://news.yahoo.com/watch-live-orange-county-covid-144300500.html

Raul Pino, state health officer in the county, said he could not give more details because of laws protecting an individual’s health information.

He said the child, under a year old, could be more easily identified if other details were revealed such as exact age, ethnicity and gender.

The baby’s death was among 56 from COVID-19 reported to Florida health officials over the past four days, raising the pandemic’s death toll among Orange County residents to 1,780, including 337 in August, the deadliest month so far, Pino said at a briefing Monday morning with reporters.

 

[bhobba]

This is not a correct number. The survey says that 45% of unvaccinated American adults will definitely not receive the vaccine. Given that ~69% of the adults in the US have received at least one dose of the vaccine, this would amount to only about 14% of US adults.

From the uptake in Sydney, shockingly, many postcodes are over 90% first dose, some even 90% two doses; as I mentioned before, at least one 100%. Maybe the number of antivaccine types here in Aus is not as significant as I thought. We have a 95% uptake of triple antigen. Fingers crossed, we can achieve that with Covid. What worries me are the Aboriginal communities.

Wilcannia in NSW, population 700, was exposed to Covid on August 13, and within a month, more than 100 people had Covid. “Wilcannia tells many things. It was a town already with a high burden of chronic disease and previously reported as one of the towns with the lowest life expectancy and shows how inequities can play out in a pandemic,” epidemiologist Professor Ward said.

We must protect indigenous people - they are very vulnerable.

For 16 and over, overall, Australia now has well over 70% one dose and is closing in on 50% two doses. We have a super Pfizer vaccine weekend here in Brisbane where anyone can walk in and get a Pfizer dose. From 10 am, many centres had to turn people away - uptake was so significant. That was yesterday. They were asked to come back today - the same thing happened. Here it is vaccine supply that is the issue. Everyone wants the Phizer, and now Moderna with that arriving in Aus. Nobody wants the Astrazenica except people like me that do not care about the one in a million chance of dying - there is 2.5 a million chance of dying just getting out of bed each morning - yet people still, of course, do it. Even when that is pointed out, people do not want it - it is bonkers. We have millions of doses of AZ. Australia could reach 70% vaccinated quicker, just by people not being afraid of AZ when our Covid plan (which I think is too optimistic) says we can go to medium restrictions rather than lockdowns. If we keep vaccinating until 80%, we can have low restrictions (but still restrictions) - over 90% just voluntary restrictions. Can Australia do it? Singapore tried opening up at 80% and realized you needed at least 90%:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09...-vaccination-but-life-is-not-normal/100450154

I think opening up with medium restrictions (not low restrictions as our Covid plan says) at 80% double vaccinated is OK - but you should have at least 90% single vaccinated and increasing so soon all will be 90% vaccinated and heading towards 95% - or life will not be like before the pandemic. BTW that is 95% over 12 and as soon as safe 95% under 12 as well.

Just to be clear, I think Australia's current plan is too optimistic:
https://www.pm.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/national-plan-to-transition-australias-national-covid-19-response-30-july-2021.pdf

What I think Australia should do is medium restrictions at 80%, not 70%. Low restrictions 90%, and just voluntary restrictions 95%. That is my view from the number of models I have seen and the experience in Singapore.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

Singapore tried opening up at 80% and realized you needed at least 90%:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09...-vaccination-but-life-is-not-normal/100450154

That may not be the right reading. While Singapore's overall population coverage is good, its coverage of the elderly is poor. We know vaccination doesn't prevent transmission by much, so if the aim is to prevent severe disease and death in the transition to endemicity, the elderly must be vaccinated at high rates.. The Burnet Institute and Grattan Institute assume 95% coverage for the elderly. Yet while I constantly heard the 80% population target from the Singapore government, I have never heard them give a target coverage for the elderly. In early September, Singapore's coverage of those aged 70+ was 88% for first doses and 85% for second doses. In that age group, the UK had 93% full vaccination (two doses) coverage a month before it opened up, and Denmark, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are at 97-99% full vaccination coverage. It should be no surprise that Singapore has not vaccinated enough, or rather not vaccinated the right people.

So both the Burnet (opening up at 60% if 95% of those 60+ age fully vaccinated) and Grattan modelling (opening up at 80% populaton coverage with 95% elderly coverage) would say Singapore should not open up, since its vaccination rate in the elderly is way below 95%.

Lone Simonsen, speaking with Kai Kupferschmidt, says pretty much the same thing: "So should other countries follow Denmark? “If you have a lower coverage in the elderly, you should not try to do what Denmark is trying right now.”, @LoneSimonsen2 told me. “We’re simply banking on this full coverage of the people at high risk.”"