Heavy rainfall and flooding in central Victoria, Australia

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SUMMARY

The recent heavy rainfall and flooding in central Victoria, Australia, has been unprecedented, primarily attributed to the La Niña effect of the ENSO. Key rivers, including the Goulburn, Ovens, and King, have overflowed, particularly near Shepparton and Mooroopna. Current forecasts predict an additional 25 mm to 100 mm of rain, exacerbating the situation, with around 34,000 homes at risk of inundation or isolation. This flooding is noted to be more extensive than the infamous 1934 Yarra River flood, affecting a broader area across Victoria and New South Wales.

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  • Understanding of the La Niña phenomenon and its climatic impacts
  • Familiarity with Australian geography, particularly river systems in Victoria and New South Wales
  • Knowledge of flood management and emergency response protocols
  • Awareness of climate change effects on weather patterns
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  • Research the La Niña effect and its historical impacts on Australian weather patterns
  • Study flood management strategies employed in Australia during extreme weather events
  • Explore the geographical features of the Murray-Darling river system
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This discussion is beneficial for meteorologists, climate scientists, emergency management professionals, and residents of flood-prone areas seeking to understand the implications of recent weather events in Australia.

Astronuc
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Unprecedented rainfall and flooding in parts of central Victoria, Australia. Goulburn, Ovens and King Rivers have overflowed the banks in places, especially the Goulburn near Shepparton and Mooroopna, Vic.

https://www.sheppnews.com.au/news/live-blog-october-16/
https://www.riverineherald.com.au/news/the-view-from-mooroopna-this-morning/

Cause appears to be La Niña effect of the ENSO.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a020.shtml
La Niña typically means:
  • Increased rainfall across much of Australia
  • Cooler daytime temperatures (south of the tropics)
  • Warmer overnight temperatures (in the north)
 
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Astronuc said:
Unprecedented
Worse than the 1934 Yarra River flood? That was pretty bad.
 
Vanadium 50 said:
Worse than the 1934 Yarra River flood? That was pretty bad.
In terms of the area flooding (central and NE Victoria and much of E NSW), yes, unprecedented, and it's not over. More rain on the way, 25 mm to 50 mm and parts maybe up to 100 mm in some areas this week. The 1934 flood was south of the snowy mountains affecting the Yarra and Latrobe Valleys. The current flooding is north of the Snowy Mountains and on up into NSW.

In the 1934 flooding, there were 34 deaths, or which 17 occurred with the loss of the a coastal steamer, Coramba. Melbourne received about 140 mm of rain, while parts of Gibbsland (further east) received up to 350 mm.
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/10998162Currently, more flooding is expected in the area, and will extend downstream along the Murray River and into South Australia.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/central-victorian-floods-shepparton-echuca-brace-for-major-flooding/news-story/ab84475bfe54a2aac3b96a6324445ad4
 
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CANBERRA, Australia (AP) — Around 34,000 homes could be inundated or isolated in Victoria state as a flood emergency continues across parts of Australia’s southeast, an official said Monday.

Victoria is the worst-affected state with some towns experiencing the highest river peaks in decades. The states of New South Wales and Tasmania were also experiencing flooding in an emergency that began last week.
https://apnews.com/article/floods-a...les-tasmania-c690a27e6a4fb9be3f27dd07bc95748a

Maribyrnong suburb of Melbourne floods. The suburb is west of downtown Melbourne just west of Essendon, Aberfeldie, Moonee Ponds and Flemington, and is situated along the Maribyrnong River, which runs along the northern and eastern border.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10...urhoods-inundated-maribyrnong-river/101539124
Large parts of Victoria state, southern New South Wales and the northern regions of the island state of Tasmania were pounded by an intense weather system with some taking more than a month's worth of rain since late Wednesday, officials said.
So an unusual amount of rainfall (month's worth, which would be inches/cm) in a day or two period, which means accumulation of a lot of water in the rivers and streams, which normally don't flood.
 
That follows record rains in the past year at Brisbane and Sydney.
 
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anorlunda said:
That follows record rains in the past year at Brisbane and Sydney.

welcome to my home, Australia, the land of extremes :smile:
 
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How northern Victoria flooded – visual explainer​

https://www.theguardian.com/news/da...ow-northern-victoria-flooded-visual-explainer

Towns in Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania have been hit by major flooding in the last week, with flooding particularly severe along the Goulburn, Loddon and Campaspe rivers, and on parts of the Murray River.

In a negative IOD – which has occurred in two consecutive years for the first time since reliable records began in 1960 – warm water concentrates in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to moisture-rich air flows towards Australia.

“Low pressure develops over south-east Australia because of favourable conditions in the upper atmosphere,” Speer said, which results in rain inland of the Great Dividing Range.

Last week, a low pressure system traveled east over the continent, bringing the rain which hit southern Australia from 12 October onwards:

Warm water in the Tasman Sea and Indian Ocean (Great Australia Bight) combined with favorable (or unfavorable) winds brought considerable precipitation to the west or north (inland) side of the Great Dividing Range that runs from near Melbourne northeast to NSW.

The area north of the Great Dividing Range in Victoria is “a vast floodplain”, Cook said. “That area is unbelievably flat. It’s a very complicated system of rivers and creeks that all feed into the Murray-Darling system.
 
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Climate change can manifest in many ways. I presume that new rainforests may be created some places. No signs yet of the Sahara becoming green.
 
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Not just Victoria, but parts of New South Wales and Queensland are getting soaked.

Once a comfort, rain is now ruining Australia's mood
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-63382895

The city [Sydney] has seen around 170 days of rain so far in 2022 - there have been more rainy days than dry ones. And with almost a quarter of the year still to go, Sydney broke its annual rainfall record last month.
. . .

More than 2.3m (7.5 feet) of rain has fallen on the city - three times the annual average in London.
It's been a similar story across the rest of Australia's eastern states. Repeated, widespread flooding across all four of them has left thousands of homes uninhabitable and killed more than 30 people this year. Just this past week, two people died as towns in central western New South Wales (NSW) went underwater.

The last two years of dramatic flooding followed record-breaking bushfires and drought. While Australia has always been a land of extremes, experts say climate change is making these phenomena worse and more frequent.
 

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