Topher925 said:
I doubt the world economy will collapse and everything will go to hell. That is unless aliens attack our planet. But even that might unite us under a single non-monetary federation in order to defeat the aliens. Unless the destruction of the economy is the first step in the alien's plan. Perhaps Obama is an alien and the aliens are planning to take the world down from the inside. It took WWII to bring us out of the great depression so it seems fitting that WWIII would get us out of this "credit crunch". And since Germany has been put in their place many times there are no totalitarian countries to fight on a world war scale. So I guess WWIII will have to be fought against aliens in order to solve the economic crisis. This is all of course assuming aliens exist. Not only must they exist but we also must be able to find them, along with their flying saucers too. But if aliens do exist than we can certainly end the economic crisis. So we can simply solve the economic crisis by finding aliens. I think I have been grading lab reports for to long.
Well, everything going to hell is a bit dramatic, but I won't be surprised if a lot of people experience significant suffering in the next decade. I don't think it matters who steers the economy either, it's more a force of nature (specifically, human nature... one of the more complex 'natures'). The bubble has popped, we have a lot of making up to do for all that time we thought we were a rich country. Things like bailouts will suspend the inevitable and perhaps make them more drastic.
Economic crashes can be modeled as an SOC system. In general, small scale events happen a lot and large-scale events don't happen very often. Other examples of SOC systems are forest fires and earthquakes.
One consequence of SOC systems is that the more you try to inhibit the smaller-scale events, the more of a build-up you create for the larger scale events.
For instance, with the example of forest fires, by putting out the smaller and medium size fires, we leave a bunch of half-burned brush behind, allowing a nice primer for the next forest fire to get a faster head start.
In risk-assessment, if we design a bunch of protocol for all the little problems so that employers will know what to do, line by line, they're not going to do when something big hits that isn't in their book of protocols. This has been a criticism of NASA (and the US in general).
Bailouts are basically putting the smaller-scale fires out and/or focusing on the smaller failures that are all hinting at a much larger failure.
The best thing to do would be to just let go and let the market crash, but that's like trying to burn your slit throat with a cigarette lighter. Even if it will cauterize the wound and save you from bleeding to death, it's going to hurt like hell.
heh, that turned into more of a rant than I intended, my apologies (as I click the 'submit reply' button)