kamenjar said:
It doesn't matter if it is evaporating or not. We look at a snapshot in time t = 0. the graph represents the situation at t=0 so nothing can be "changing or evaporating".
Your picture is a "snapshot", but your claim that there must be a P2 from which light takes 10 billion years to reach O is not just a claim about the snapshot; it is a claim about the entire spacetime to the future of the snapshot, and for that it does make a difference whether or not the hole is evaporating. See below.
kamenjar said:
And at t = 1 this information about black hole losing mass (or ANY information, for the matter from that direction) has never reached either of the photons originating from either P1 or P2 because they are moving away form the information at the speed of light.
Ok, now I see better what is bothering you. Let me take a step back.
First, remember that the term "horizon" can actually be defined in two different ways, one local and one global. The local definition is called the "apparent horizon": it is a point at which outgoing light rays just stay at the same radius. (This is also called a "marginally trapped surface".) The global definition is called the "absolute horizon": it is the boundary of the region of spacetime (if there is one) that cannot send light signals to "infinity" (more precisely, to "future null infinity").
For an "eternal" black hole, which is static and has an unchanging mass, the two horizons coincide: the apparent horizon, where outgoing light rays stay in the same place forever, is also the absolute horizon, the boundary of the region that can't send light signals to infinity. However, as soon as we introduce any kind of change in mass, the two no longer coincide. That means we have to be careful, in any reasoning that includes horizons, to specify which kind of horizon we are talking about.
Second, remember that what we see as the "gravity" of the black hole, which causes the tilting of the light cones, the delaying of outgoing light rays, etc., does *not* "propagate" from the hole. This is why you can feel the hole's gravity even though gravity itself travels at the speed of light (meaning gravity can't "escape" from within the horizon, any more than any other signal can). There was a fairly recent thread about this, which I can't find right now, but in the course of it I linked to this in the Usenet Physics FAQ:
http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Relativity/BlackHoles/black_gravity.html
The key point is that the field outside the hole, for a real black hole that is formed by a collapsing star or other object, is "propagated" from the collapsing object, *not* from the hole that it forms. So the reason you can feel the hole's gravity is that the collapsing object, some time in the past, left an "imprint" on the spacetime at the radius where you are, which you feel as the hole's gravity.
Third, what actually causes black hole evaporation? The usual explanation involves virtual particle pairs popping out of the quantum vacuum at the horizon, but not annihilating each other a very short time later, as they do in empty space. Instead, one particle goes down the hole, while the other escapes outward to infinity. Since the virtual pair came from the vacuum, its net energy has to be zero; so one particle has to have negative energy and the other positive. It turns out that the only way the process can work is for the negative energy particle to go down the hole, meaning that the hole loses a tiny bit of mass, which is carried away by the positive energy particle.
But if you look at the actual theoretical derivation of black hole evaporation, it turns out that you can't just look at the quantum fields at the horizon. You have to look at field modes propagating *into* the hole from the past; more precisely, propagating in from past null infinity. (I think I've got this right--QM experts, please correct me if needed.) But that means that information about how the hole is going to evaporate is, in principle, predictable from the quantum field modes propagating into the hole in the past--just as the hole's gravity is predictable from the collapsing object that formed it.
Putting all of the above together, we get the following: the future worldlines of photons emitted from P1 and P2, at the instant of your "snapshot", are indeed *not* affected by any signal that starts propagating from EH at the instant of your snapshot (because, as you say, such a signal would have to travel faster than light to catch up). However, that does *not* mean the future worldlines of those photons must be the same as they would be if the black hole were eternal with the mass that it has at the instant of your "snapshot". The fact that the black hole is not eternal is a global fact about the spacetime as a whole, *not* a fact about the local region around EH in the vicinity of your snapshot. And the paths of photons emitted outward from P1 and P2 are determined by information about curvature that propagates from the entire past of your "snapshot", not just from EH.
To see how this works, consider a slightly simpler case: the point EH itself. At the instant of your "snapshot", the point EH is an apparent horizon; outgoing light rays "hover" at the same radius. But an instant later, a point at that radius will no longer be an apparent horizon (since the hole has lost a little mass, so the apparent horizon has moved inward). So an outgoing light ray emitted from EH, at the instant of your snapshot, will in fact escape to infinity! In other words, EH marks an apparent horizon, but *not* an absolute horizon. The absolute horizon at the instant of the "snapshot" is at some smaller radius. But if an outgoing light ray from EH does escape to infinity, then obviously it takes a shorter time than such a ray would have taken if the black hole were eternal (since in that case EH would be an absolute horizon and outgoing light would take an infinite time to escape). But by your reasoning, this could not happen, because the very information that light from EH can actually escape can't propagate outward any faster than the light from EH itself--for example, the light cone at the same radius as EH, but slightly to the future of your "snapshot", must already "know", by the time the light ray from EH gets there, that it is not a trapped surface so that light ray can escape outward a bit. The only way it can "know" that is for the information to already have reached it from the entire past of the "snapshot", not outward from the hole.
So I believe the answer to your question is that the information about how the spacetime to the future of your "snapshot" is going to change, including how the light cones are going to tilt less, light is going to escape faster, and ultimately there is going to be a finite limit on how long it will take light signals to reach O from P1 or P2, is already encoded in the snapshot itself. That information doesn't have to "propagate" outward from the hole, any more than the hole's gravity does; it is already there. So nothing has to "catch up" to photons emitted from P1 or P2.