PeterDonis said:
Only if the universe is non-homogeneous on cosmological scales. Which is an additional assumption.
According to the current mainstream model, the universe is non-homogeneous on
all scales. Hence the existence of galaxies. The homogeneity is just an approximation.
In the context of cosmic inflation, for example, the homogeneity only arises because the early expansion rapidly grows Planck-scale fluctuations to be cosmic in scale. As long as inflation lasts long enough, this guarantees that the observable universe will be approximately homogeneous. But it makes very little statement about how far that approximate homogeneity extends. In fact, according to many inflation models, the prediction is that the universe far beyond the observable will be wildly inhomogeneous (as quantum effects will cause the average energy of the inflaton field during inflation to change enough to impact the rate of expansion). There are lots of caveats and mathematical difficulties with these models, but the overall picture is clear: if cosmic inflation is real, then the universe on scales much larger than our horizon cannot be assumed to be remotely homogeneous.
PeterDonis said:
But there is no reason to expect "sufficiently large" distances to just happen to be a little bit larger than the size of our observable universe. Which means we should expect significant deviations in temperature across the region we can see. But we don't see that. Hence proposals like inflation to explain the observed homogeneity of the universe.
In other words, you're saying that we should expect the universe to not be homogeneous on large scales. Absent inflation, or some other mechanism to produce homogeneity, that's true; but it also contradicts observation. Occam's Razor doesn't tell you to force your theory to be so simple that it contradicts observation.
By "sufficiently large" I mean scales much, much greater than our cosmic horizon. You should note that I made precisely this point earlier that what we can expect is that, given observation, the universe remains approximately homogeneous for a significant distance beyond our cosmic horizon. My naive estimate would be to expect approximate homogeneity for at least a few tens of Hubble radii for there to be no observational consequences. I'm sure that given a specific model, it would be possible to make somewhat more careful estimates, but there will be a lot of speculation put into any such estimate so we should always take them with a grain of salt. One way to make some progress with this would be to take the failure of observational searches for cosmic superstrings to put a lower bound on the estimated distance to the nearest domain wall (besides, modeling an expanding universe with domain walls might be a very difficult exercise; I'm not aware of it being done to any significant degree).
PeterDonis said:
This is a valid point; however, it doesn't mean what you appear to think it means. Regions with different low-energy laws of physics, in terms of the classical approximation model on which our standard cosmology is based, are different universes. So whether they are present or not is a separate question from the spatial extent and spatial homogeneity of the universe we are in.
That's a matter of semantics that I'm not sure is relevant. For one, it would imply a finite universe, which breaks the assumption of infinite homogeneity.
PeterDonis said:
This amounts to saying: we should not assume Occam's Razor. But your whole argument is based on Occam's Razor.
Hardly. The problem with this is that this is an argument based upon the FLRW universe. But the FLRW universe is not completely accurate. This is necessarily true because our universe is not perfectly homogeneous and isotropic (if it were, the Earth and Sun couldn't exist: the entire universe would be a uniform gas).
The most accurate theory we have right now to describe the universe on cosmic scales is described by Cosmological perturbation theory, where the FLRW metric is taken as a baseline with deviations from that baseline included. This is still an approximation, but it also breaks the fundamental assumption that you're relying upon: that the universe is homogeneous and isotropic.
The thought process you are describing is the same as a person who lives in the US Midwest and never travels more than five miles claiming that the simplest explanation is that the entire Earth is just like their local area. Within that area, the only bodies of water are a few ponds and streams. There are no hills of note, and no mountains are visible. Some stands of trees dot the landscape, mostly associated with farm houses. There are a large number of corn fields plus a handful of soybean fields. Were they resourceful and dedicated enough, they might conclude that the Earth is spherical. But without traveling further or talking to people outside their area, they would have no concept of lakes, mountains, or oceans. Cliffs and waterfalls would never occur to them. The universe far beyond our cosmological horizon might be even more diverse than this analogy would suggest.
Certainly if you just look at the simplest possible model of our universe, the FLRW model, it looks like homogeneity is the simplest. But if you dig a little bit beneath the surface and examine more precise models, that apparent simplicity evaporates as it becomes clear that any model more complex than FLRW actually requires
more parameters to describe a universally-homogeneous model than one that varies on scales much larger than the observable.