anorlunda said:
I may be wrong again

, but it's unclear. The Wiki article plots # of sunspots versus time, but the only thing about intensity is this.
The Sun goes through an 11 year solar cycle. That is every 11 years we reach a peak in activity where there are many more spots visible than at the minimum times. Yes there are many more flares during maximum years than during the minimum years, because there are more spots. Currently we are pretty close to the minimum of cycle 24 and even at this time the sun can surprise us. It was only a month and a bit ago (7th Sept) that one particular spot group really fired up and produce several X class flares. The largest of them, a X9.3, was the largest flare in the last 10 - 12 years.
See posts 5, 6, and 7 in this thread --
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/solar-imaging-and-techniques.925656/
showing sunspots I imaged during that burst of activity.
The size of the flare is not always an indication of if it will produce strong geomagnetic storming or not. It has been recorded over the years, that sometimes smaller flares can produce stronger geomagnetic storming than larger ones. This is because not all flares, large or small, are associated with coronal mass ejections (CME's). Some flares can be stronger in the radio and X-ray emissions than with the ejection of protons and electrons (CME constituents)
anorlunda said:
It would be hard to get clean statistics because there a three factors. 1) The frequency, 2) The intensity, and 3) Their direction which can be towards or away from Earth.
All these 3 things are well known for every significant flare.
There are 4 classes of flares, B, C, M and X. It's the M and X class flares that cause noticeable to severe geomagnetic storming particularly if the spot group that produces them is reasonably central to the centre of the solar disk ( anywhere near directly facing us). Their effectiveness drops off the closer to the edge of the disk they get.
anorlunda said:
Perhaps you know. Of every 100 solar flares, how many intercept Earth's atmosphere?
If they are face on to the Earth ... all of them will interact with the Earth environment in one way or another. What that interaction will be will depend on
what the flare emitted/ejected. Let's take an example of what can happen ...
A strong M 7.7 flare that has strong radio, X-ray and CME
... Effects ... radio emission will cause huge bursts of noise right across the spectrum from HF through VHF and into UHF
... Effects ... X-ray emission will cause HF radio SWF's (shortwave fadeouts) to complete blackouts worldwide. This is because the X-rays ionise the D-Layer (lowest layer) of the ionosphere and this stops the HF (1 - 30MHz) frequencies from reaching and refracting of the F-Layer that they rely on for long haul propagation. These can be seen on lower latitude radio paths are sometimes restricted to the polar regions with what are called PCA events
(Polar Cap Absorption events).
... Effects ... CME's are what cause the auroral displays at both poles. They consist of large numbers of high speed (600 - 1200km/second) protons and electrons that get trapped in the Earths magnetic field and spiral down the field lines towards the north and south magnetic poles. Once these charges particles penetrate the atmosphere deep enough, they collide with atoms of oxygen and nitrogen in the upper atmosphere at ~ 50 to 100km causing these atoms to be ionised and glow in the same way a neon tube shop sign does.
During this time that the Earths magnetic field is being buffered by this particle onslaught, it is continuously pulsating and changing in strength and density.
It is this that is causing the huge induced currents into long runs of pipelines and power grids ... stationary conductors in a moving/varying magnetic field.There can be no end to the variations of the above example as no two flares are the same in their amounts of emission in those three main area.Dave