B How long before someone builds a machine to predict the future?

[Quarinteen]

TL;DR Summary

How long before we can predict the future accurately?

Now that we have quantum computing how long before someone builds an AI ML system that can predict the future?

 

[PeterDonis]

Why would you expect quantum computing to make this possible?

 

[Dale]

What makes you think we need computers? We have been predicting the future since long before recorded history. Most human endeavors involve predicting the future, from agriculture to sports to gambling to relationships.

 

[hutchphd]

suppose there was a reliable machine. Would such a machine lead to different philosophical conundra than being able to travel to the past? Seems to me not.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Accurately, or rather were you to type more accurately?

 

[Tom.G]

Summary:: How long before we can predict the future accurately?

how long before someone builds an AI ML system that can predict the future?

Don't know, but I promise to come back and tell you when it happens!

(If I'm still alive)

 

[Heidi]

Half the job has already been done. We can predict the past with a good precision.

 

[Jarvis323]

suppose there was a reliable machine. Would such a machine lead to different philosophical conundra than being able to travel to the past? Seems to me not.

In a weird coincidence, I was thinking about this today also, and posted a similar thought in the sci-fi forum.

 

[phinds]

How long before we can predict the future accurately?

My prediction - - - never. There are things that are truly random. See (1) radioactive decay and (2) the HUP just for starters. Having a fast computer is irrelevant - - - randomness is inconsistent with determinism.

 

[A. Neumaier]

how long before someone builds an AI ML system that can predict the future?

People predict the future all the time. Not surprisingly with very limited success where the future depends sensitively on the present - no amount of new technology will be able to change that. But other things from the future, such as solar eclipses, can be predicted accurately with great success.

 

[PeroK]

Summary:: How long before we can predict the future accurately?

Now that we have quantum computing how long before someone builds an AI ML system that can predict the future?

You've not been watching Devs by any chance?

You should realize that shows like that have no scientific basis beyond the scriptwriter's imagination.

 

[EPR]

Summary:: How long before we can predict the future accurately?

Now that we have quantum computing how long before someone builds an AI ML system that can predict the future?

There are 2 problems:

The future appears indeterminate. And you already assumed humans are deterministic machines with no free choice. Are you going to know what I will post here 1 minute before I know it? That will never happen.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It's been done.

And it predicts this thread will be closed before too long.

 

[Tom.G]

Seems somehow connected to this:
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/27/9175...vel-is-theoretically-possible-researchers-say

 

[Demystifier]

Summary:: How long before we can predict the future accurately?

Now that we have quantum computing how long before someone builds an AI ML system that can predict the future?

Did you watch Devs?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devs

EDIT: Now I've seen that @PeroK also asked that.

 

[trainman2001]

I believe Monty Python once said, "No one predicted the Spanish Inquisition." That said, no one predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union either, or the falling of the Berlin Wall. Since we couldn't get those cataclysmic changes right, there's really no hope for prediction at all. Just look at the Segue. I'm predicting electric vehicles will dominate in 10 years. I could be hopelessly wrong.

 

[jedishrfu]

It's been done.

View attachment 270097

And it predicts this thread will be closed before too long.

Its interesting you brought this up. I remember Garrett Lisi giving a talk on his E8 model of particles basically saying that there is one particle but it projects a different set of attributes depending on its orientation.

I sent him an email to consider using the magic 8 ball as an example where the single die inside represents his E8 particle and how it presents a different message each time you shake it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Exceptionally_Simple_Theory_of_Everything

with respect to a machine that predicts the future, I think it would violate the physics we have where quantum processes are inherently unpredictable and macro processes are somewhat predictable.

An example, might be a model that predicts wave nature in the ocean but then fails to predict rogue waves or weather models that can predict only a few days in advance and then break down after that.

One could argue that if we knew things in greater detail then we could predict however then the machine might get so large generating so much heat as to affect the weather its trying to predict.

 

[DaveE]

Really, this question is nearly meaningless if you don't somehow further define or constrain what you mean by "predict the future". For example, we can already predict the future path of a baseball pretty well; some so well they can hit it with a bat. OTOH, perhaps you meant the future out to infinite time of every particle in the universe? That will take more than a quantum computer, IMO.

 

[DaveC426913]

I predict that Sun will rise tomorrow.

We'll see how that works out, but I expect to be well paid.

 

[phinds]

I predict that Sun will rise tomorrow.

We'll see how that works out, but I expect to be well paid.

Wow ... you found someone who took that as a bet? Please let them know that I've got a beautiful bridge in Brooklyn that I'm selling really cheap.

 

[PeterDonis]

if this is too much of a side topic, I'll accept a stop.

It is.

Everyone please note, an off topic subthread has been deleted. Please bear in mind that this is a physics forum, not a philosophy forum.

 

[AndreasC]

Well, if I had such a machine, I could tell you the answer to this question.