Impact of recession and oil price increase

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the impact of a recession and rising oil prices on the supply curve, particularly in relation to the automotive market. Participants explore how these economic conditions might shift supply and demand dynamics, considering both short-term and long-term effects.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • One participant suggests that changes to the supply curve are driven by production costs, including opportunity costs, and notes that a recession typically leads to decreased demand.
  • Another participant argues that in the short run, the aggregate supply (AS) curve may not shift due to the logic presented by the previous poster, indicating that only the demand curve would shift initially.
  • A different viewpoint posits that in the long run, a significant recession could stymie productive capacity, potentially leading to a shift in the AS curve.
  • One participant questions the context of the "supply curve," asking for clarification on what specific market is being discussed (e.g., food, cars, etc.).
  • A later reply focuses on the automotive market, asking about the impact on quantity demanded and supplied for cars if oil prices rise to $200 per barrel amidst extreme recessionary conditions.
  • Another participant speculates that supply chains might become more privatized, with entities controlling oil production and distribution operating independently of market pressures, potentially leading to new economic structures that could mitigate the effects of recession.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the effects of recession and oil price increases on the supply curve, with no consensus reached on how these factors interact or the specific implications for different markets.

Contextual Notes

Participants have not fully defined the scope of the supply curve in question, leading to ambiguity in the discussion. Additionally, the implications of the recession and oil price increases are considered under various assumptions about market behavior and economic structures.

mel*k
Hi
I was just wondering if anyone could please help me, I was just wondering what would happen to the supply curve if;
1. There was a recession.
2. And if oil prices increases.

what would cause the supply curve to shift?
thanks heaps for your help

Mel
 
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mel*k said:
Hi
I was just wondering if anyone could please help me, I was just wondering what would happen to the supply curve if;
1. There was a recession.
2. And if oil prices increases.

what would cause the supply curve to shift?
thanks heaps for your help

Mel

What changes the supply curve are changes to the cost of production. This includes opportunity cost. In a recession demand is less so the only way the price would go up is if the supply curve changed. One way I could see it changing is a massive destruction of the oil producing infrastructure.
 
mel*k said:
what would happen to the supply curve if;
1. There was a recession.

Depends - long/medium/short run.

In the short run, I don't think the AS curve will move because of the previous poster's logic. Only the demand curve shifts.

In the long run it should actually change a little if it's a massive recession. It's because productive capacity will be stymied. In the long run the AS curve is vertical, and shifts to the right by 2-3% every year. (The AD curve intersects this curve). This amount will be reduced by the recession.
 
mel*k said:
Hi
I was just wondering if anyone could please help me, I was just wondering what would happen to the supply curve if;
1. There was a recession.
2. And if oil prices increases.

what would cause the supply curve to shift?
thanks heaps for your help

Mel
"Supply curve" of what? Food? Cable TV? iPhones? Aggregate supply (as one poster interpreted it to be)?
 
Hi All
thank you all for your help i really appreciate you input, sorry if i didnt explain myself properly the question was worded.

Explain what the impact on quantity demanded and supplied for cars will be if oil prices rise to $200 per barrel. What about if extreme global recessionary conditions also prevail?

thanks
 
mel*k said:
Hi All
thank you all for your help i really appreciate you input, sorry if i didnt explain myself properly the question was worded.

Explain what the impact on quantity demanded and supplied for cars will be if oil prices rise to $200 per barrel. What about if extreme global recessionary conditions also prevail?

thanks

Probably, the supply-chains would go relatively private meaning that people with control over oil harvesting and refinement would continue to produce oil and distribute it according to hierarchies of preference. The result would be relatively market-independent economic regimes that did not have to buy oil on the global free market. They would be effectively "above" the recession and would organize economic activities, such as agriculture and food distribution, to benefit the "subjects" of their regimes. If you wanted to be very uncreative, you could call them "welfare states," or maybe "welfare corporations" would be a better term. The problem would be that each would be a ticking time-bomb in that as long as one depleted non-renewable resources like oil, it would have to seek ways to expand its eventual access to oil-rights. This is why the most successful regimes will ultimately be the most sustainable, I think. While some people are fighting over oil and auto-production, others will be zipping around on bicycles and running their computers on solar power. If those people are able to ward off the desperate grasping of the failing welfare-corporations, they will probably suffer less due to oil-inflation and recession - provided they don't get caught in the crossfire of everyone else struggling for scarce resources.
 

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