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random23
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Would someone please be able to point me towards the literature that discusses how the IPCC calculate the low, medium and high confidence projections as used in their fifth assessment report? Thanks.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific organization established by the United Nations to provide policymakers with unbiased information about the state of climate change. Confidence projections refer to the level of certainty scientists have in their predictions about future climate change.
IPCC confidence projections are determined through a process called expert elicitation, where scientists with expertise in various fields related to climate change assess and evaluate the available evidence and make judgments on the level of confidence in the projections.
IPCC confidence projections take into account a range of factors, including the quality and quantity of available data, the level of agreement among different models and observations, and the level of understanding of underlying physical processes.
IPCC confidence projections are considered to be highly reliable, as they are based on the best available scientific evidence and expert judgment. However, it is important to note that projections are not perfect and can change as new data and understanding become available.
IPCC confidence projections can be used by policymakers to inform decisions related to climate change mitigation and adaptation. These projections are meant to provide a range of possible future scenarios, which can help policymakers prepare for potential impacts and make informed decisions about mitigating and adapting to climate change.