Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

[Pythagorean]

@jim hardy

I don't know whether Bush cared or not, but I am only commenting on perception of the US, not the actual US. When I say it fits a narrative, I don't mean to imply the narrative is true (and I'm not now implying that it's false) <--- not implying that it's true with that last statement. <--- not an implication that it was false here.

I'm sure the truth is more complicated than can fit in one cohesive narrative.

I do not think that, in the mind of an ISIS fighter, revenge is a big motivation for what he's doing. Instead I think the biggest motivation is what they confess: re-establishing the lost caliphate that will be feared by the enemies of Islam, even if those enemies claim to be muslim.

I don't think it's this either (at least not for most of them - there's certainly a distribution of different motivations for different soldiers). I think it basically comes down to money and power. ISIS is essentially an out-of-control organized crime network. Religion is always a nice way to justify your greedy actions, but every time there's been a serious conflict, there has always been materialistic goals. Religious excuses sometimes ride on top of the materialistic goals, but the religious excuses are cherry picked from religious literature and to match the material goals and religious authorities speaking against the behavior (fatwas in this case) are ignored.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/06/world/meast/isis-funding/

 

[Borg]

A lot of Daesh's world view and theology, though not their brutality, is shared by many non-violent Salafists*. The vast majority of Salafists have theological views that are very close to Daesh, though they are simply not ready to act on them. However, in the midst of a civil war it's not hard to imagine that some of them would start acting on those beliefs.

From my personal experience, Salafists are overrepresented in the middle and upper-middle classes. So I don't see poverty and unemployment as main causes.

Do you think that it's possible that the three girls from the UK who are all over the news are idealistically following the beliefs of their parents?

 

[russ_watters]

It wasn't the invasion itself, persay, as much as the post-clean-up. The U.S. gets blamed for leaving a power vacuum in a feudal region (and not for the first time). It fits a narrative where the US only dabbles in the middle-east over it's economic interests and doesn't care how it leaves the regions where it dabbles.

OK...so, still?

 

[HossamCFD]

I don't think it's this either (at least not for most of them - there's certainly a distribution of different motivations for different soldiers). I think it basically comes down to money and power. ISIS is essentially an out-of-control organized crime network. Religion is always a nice way to justify your greedy actions, but every time there's been a serious conflict, there has always been materialistic goals. Religious excuses sometimes ride on top of the materialistic goals, but the religious excuses are cherry picked from religious literature and to match the material goals and religious authorities speaking against the behavior (fatwas in this case) are ignored.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/06/world/meast/isis-funding/

I agree to some extent when it comes to their leaders, or the ex-Baathists who joined ISIS ranks. I can also see the whole slavery thing being a motivation for the sick minded. But for the foot soldier who exchanged a middle class life in a stable country for a medieval life in the desert and who knows that his life will most likely end in a couple of months by an air strike, I don't think an earthly reason could provide enough motivation.

 

[mheslep]

I agree that revenge plays a part. The invasion made the anti-western narrative more appealing and hence facilitated the recruitment process.

I suspect the Iraq invasion-revenge narrative, such as it exists, is mainly useful to play on western internal self-division, self-doubt, and self-blame. There are numerous examples of pre-2003 radical Islamic violent uprisings that drew rally-round-the-caliphate fighters.

 

[jim hardy]

When I say it fits a narrative, I don't mean to imply the narrative is true

i understood what you meant by "fits a narrative". i know you're a thoughtful sort, no offense meant

Ever read Conrad's "Typhoon" ?

thanks..
old jim

 

[HossamCFD]

Do you think that it's possible that the three girls from the UK who are all over the news are idealistically following the beliefs of their parents?

It doesn't have to come directly from the parents. Most of my friends who went through a religious phase and self-identified as salafis at some point in their lives had liberal parents who didn't quite approve of the change. Also from what I read about this particular case it seems that the girls may have had humanitarian reasons and had delusions about what ISIS is really doing. Though I'm not entirely sure about that.

 

[HossamCFD]

I suspect the Iraq invasion-revenge narrative, such as it exists, is mainly useful to play on western internal self-division, self-doubt, and self-blame. There are numerous examples of pre-2003 radical Islamic violent uprisings that drew rally-round-the-caliphate fighters.

Radical violent islamism definitely predates 2003 and even the 1991 gulf war. You can almost trace this world view to Sayyid Qutb's 'milestones'. Although he didn't really invent it from thin air.

 

[Pythagorean]

@jim hardy : I hadn't read that one in the time I read fiction for leisure. For whatever reason, since academia, I haven't been able to enjoy fiction (not because I don't like fiction, but because reading is work)

I don't think an earthly reason could provide enough motivation.

Perhaps we've transcended the other animals, but somehow I doubt it. In my limited anecdotes don't see this much momentum put into pious goals, I only see pious language dressed up on material goals and often contradictory - Islam, the religion of peace, but peace must come by gun (paraphrasing an ISIS soldier from VICE's The Islamic State.)

 

[mheslep]

Wright's "The Looming Tower" opens with Qutb's 1948 arrival in the US and his eventual rejection of the west, so that source takes him as a 20th century beginning of sorts via the Moslem Brotherhood that leads all the way to 911.

"The west is to blame" narrative is used by others; Venezuela's fearless leader arrests and beats opposition leaders on even days of the week,http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/30/us-venezuela-oil-idUSKBN0K802020141230 on odd days, and that has long been a dance rhythm of leftist Latin dictators. Clearly, Latin America has seen U.S. meddling in the past, and the strongmen use the past for every woe that they now cause.

 

[Czcibor]

I started to wonder about direction of this thread:

In some summary last 2 pages:
-education - would not help much, top terrorist were quite well educated;
-injustice / low socioeconomical status - not specially, top terrorist were rich / medium class;
-past meddling in the Middle East - not specially, there was enough hate already a while ago;
-salafism as possible rebellion among teenagers who were brought by quite reasonable and moderate parent - so not much hope that next generation would be integrated.

Some minor possibilities of improvement, but nothing game changing.

Message for the West: you are hated anyway, invest in surveillance, high fences on border (both figuratively and literally) and drones.

Yes, I think paradoxically it would be easier for the West to accept that we're destined to be hit by terrorist attack from time to time because of some our transgression which can be redeemed (let it be even caricatures) and not because Muslim countries are just a fertile soil for terrorism and change can only go from within Muslim civilization.

 

[HossamCFD]

'Jihadi John', the man with the London accent appearing in the beheading videos, was identified:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31637090

 

[Astronuc]

FBI: 'We Are Losing the Battle' to Stop ISIS Radicalization Online
http://news.yahoo.com/fbi-losing-battle-stop-isis-radicalization-online-200239749--abc-news-topstories.html

The FBI’s top counterterrorism official offered a blunt assessment today of U.S. efforts to stop ISIS from spreading its merciless message online: “We are losing the battle.”

The terrorist group wreaking havoc in Syria and Iraq as it blasts videos of beheadings to the world “has proven dangerously competent like no other group before it at employing [online] tools for its nefarious strategy,” the head of the FBI’s counterterrorism division, Assistant Director Michael Steinbach, told lawmakers today.

There's something wrong if the US can't deliver a better message.

US-led strikes on IS after group seizes 220 Christians
http://news.yahoo.com/us-led-raids-targets-christians-seized-143247132.html

Fighting IS not a priority for Turkey: US spy chief
http://news.yahoo.com/fighting-not-priority-turkey-us-spy-chief-193201665.htmlWith sledgehammer, Islamic State smashes Iraqi history
http://news.yahoo.com/islamic-state-fighters-destroy-antiquities-iraq-video-124118694.htmlUS looks to aid Syrian refugees amid security concerns
http://news.yahoo.com/us-looks-aid-syrian-refugees-amid-security-concerns-081358699--politics.html

 

[mheslep]

Along with the FBI, Clapper says:

Mr. Clapper cited a modernizing Chinese military, and widening terrorist threats throughout the world. He said more than 30,000 people were killed in terrorist attacks in 2014, more than in any year since such records were first kept 45 years ago.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-int...ats-persist-from-russia-terrorists-1424974534

Bah. Paranoid humbug. All is well:

"And frankly – and last thing, this is counterintuitive but it’s true: Our citizens, our world today is actually, despite ISIL, despite the visible killings that you see and how horrific they are, we are actually living in a period of less daily threat to Americans and to people in the world than normally— less deaths, less violent deaths today than through the last century."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/02/25/kerry_despite_isis_we_are_actually_living_in_a_period_of_less_daily_threat_to_americans.html

 

[Czcibor]

Along with the FBI, Clapper says:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-int...ats-persist-from-russia-terrorists-1424974534

Bah. Paranoid humbug. All is well:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/02/25/kerry_despite_isis_we_are_actually_living_in_a_period_of_less_daily_threat_to_americans.html

Does it have to be contradictory? A peak year for terrorism attack, while other sources of violent death (usual murder or casualties from wars between states) is on a long term decline phase, which moves total violent death down anyway?

 

[mheslep]

Sure, addressing the distinction for trends for domestic homicides and the like of fatal accidents from falling in the bath tub would be appropriate for, say, some chief of police somewhere, as that's in the job description of the police. Sec Kerry is not a police chief. My conclusion then is that he's attempting to divert attention away from that which is in his job description. What's your opinion?

 

[Bystander]

Does it have to be contradictory?

he's attempting to divert attention away from that which is in his job description. What's your opinion?

Comparing apples and oranges again. This is not WWI or WWII which contributed five to ten million deaths per year to the normal mortality rate (this is Kerry's basis for his argument), nor is it the "Phony post-WWII peace of the Cold-War" when interruptions to the "Mexican-standoff" between "The West" and "The Iron/Bamboo Curtain" countries were not tolerated.

 

[Astronuc]

Well, "During the approximate 100-day period from April 7, 1994, to mid-July, an estimated 500,000–1,000,000 Rwandans were killed,[1] constituting as much as 20% of the country's total population and 70% of the Tutsi then living in Rwanda." That was more or less an act of terrorism. And that was only 21 years ago.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_Genocide

And - "The deadliest war in modern African history, it has directly involved nine African countries, as well as about 20 armed groups. By 2008, the war and its aftermath had killed 5.4 million people, mostly from disease and starvation,[7] making the Second Congo War the deadliest conflict worldwide since World War II.[8] Millions more were displaced from their homes . . . "

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War

So Clapper is incorrect, and Kerry unfortunately comes across as minimizing the tragedy in the world.

 

[mheslep]

Well, "During the approximate 100-day period from April 7, 1994, to mid-July, an estimated 500,000–1,000,000 Rwandans were killed,[1] constituting as much as 20% of the country's total population and 70% of the Tutsi then living in Rwanda." That was more or less an act of terrorism. And that was only 21 years ago.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_Genocide

So Clapper is incorrect, and Kerry unfortunately comes across as minimizing the tragedy in the world.

Clapper referred to terror attacks. Rwanda was a genocide, like the holocaust. When the war kills everyone there's nobody left to terrorize.

 

[Astronuc]

Clapper referred to terror attacks. Rwanda was a genocide, like the holocaust. When the war kills everyone there's nobody left to terrorize.

On the other hand, how does one distinguish between a terrorist group and a group committed to genocide?

War crimes and genocide: Daesh systematically killing religious and ethnic minorities in Iraq, study finds
http://news.yahoo.com/war-crimes---...ematically-in-iraq--study-says-170919683.html

So Daesh is a terrorist group committing acts of genocide, or perhaps a group committed to genocide engaging in acts of terrorism.

Their end product is the death of innocent people.

 

[russ_watters]

On the other hand, how does one distinguish between a terrorist group and a group committed to genocide?

...

So Daesh is a terrorist group committing acts of genocide, or perhaps a group committed to genocide engaging in acts of terrorism.

Yes, a group can be both, but the definitions are what they are and I don't think it is that tough to distinguish if you stick to the definitions. Really, it seems like many terrorist organizations want to commit genocide, but most terrorist organizations use terrorism because they don't have the means to commit genocide.

 

[Astronuc]

http://news.yahoo.com/katie-couric-explains-the-syrian-refugee-crisis-163502658.html

Civilian life in Syria was devastated by the civil war that began in 2011, but tension in the country has long existed. Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father, Hafez al-Assad, as president in 2000. The Assad family is Alawite, an offshoot of the Shiite branch of Islam, while the country itself is about 75 percent Sunni. The government, fearful of being overthrown by the overwhelming majority, rules its people under an oppressive dictatorship. In March 2011, Syrians took to the streets protesting the Assad regime. The government responded with violence, and the country erupted into a sectarian war.

 

[Astronuc]

Islamic State Threatens to Kill Twitter Co-Founder Jack Dorsey
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/islamic-state-threatens-to-kill-twitter-co-founder-112513514549.html

As I’ve reported in the past, the Islamic State often turns to Twitter as a vehicle to quickly spread content; it has posted beheading videos on the service and has attempted to recruit new members there, too. In some cases, actual fighters tweet from the frontlines of battle in Syria. A recent study showed that as many as 46,000 Twitter accounts were used by Islamic State sympathizers during a three-month period last fall.

How Islamic is Islamic State group? Not very, experts say
http://news.yahoo.com/islamic-islamic-state-group-not-very-experts-131121264.html

 

[HossamCFD]

Good insight on the rise of ISIS and the significance of the idea of a Caliphate

http://qz.com/354227/isil-is-growing-and-this-is-why/

Although I feel the article was mainly written for british audience and hence the emphasis on Hizb ut-Tahrir, which is mainly a UK phenomenon and is almost unheard of in the muslim world.

 

[Astronuc]

Widespread outrage after Daesh bulldozes ancient Iraq city
http://news.yahoo.com/bulldozed-ancient-assyrian-city-nimrud-iraq-govt-203312292.html

Baghdad (AFP) - Condemnation poured in Friday of the Islamic State group's bulldozing of the ancient city of Nimrud, the jihadists' latest attack on Iraqi cultural treasures that the UN termed a "war crime".

After rampaging through Mosul's museum with sledgehammers and torching its library last month, IS "bulldozed" the nearby ruins of Nimrud Thursday, the tourism and antiquities ministry said.

Very sad. All previous caliphates preserved this heritage.

http://news.yahoo.com/iraqi-forces-push-toward-tikrit-battle-against-081840604.html

https://www.yahoo.com/travel/requiem-for-history-rare-look-at-what-isis-113009067607.html

http://news.yahoo.com/iraqi-minister-concerns-over-looting-third-ancient-132800343.html

BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraq's government is investigating reports that the ancient archaeological site of Khorsabad in northern Iraq is the latest to be attacked by the Islamic State militant group.

Adel Shirshab, the country's tourism and antiquities minister, told The Associated Press there are concerns the militants will remove artifacts and damage the site, located 15 kilometers (9 miles) northeast of Mosul. Saeed Mamuzini, a Kurdish official from Mosul, told the AP that the militants had already begun demolishing the Khorsabad site on Sunday, citing multiple witnesses.

 

[Dotini]

Widespread outrage after Daesh bulldozes ancient Iraq city

Very sad. All previous caliphates preserved this heritage.

I too feel sad, even very sad, about the bulldozing of antiquities.

However, it should be remarked that the Giza pyramids we're stripped of their casing stones in order to build Cairo, and some native American pyramids and mounds were leveled by New World farmers.

 

[DrDu]

Just want to note that the destruction of cultural heritage isn't restricted to "pagan" monuments but also includes panmuslimic sites even in mecca: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_early_Islamic_heritage_sites_in_Saudi_Arabia
To put it differently: Conservative Wahhabits are transforming mecca and medina into a kind of a muslimic disney land.

 

[naima]

All this make me think of the red guards during the time of Mao Zedong who destroyed the "old stuff" of ancient times. They are happy now to receive tourists and dollars.

 

[Astronuc]

ISIS Must Be Stopped for 'Our Own Sake,' Says Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi
http://news.yahoo.com/isis-must-stopped-own-sake-says-iraqi-prime-165315902--abc-news-topstories.html

Well, yeah - organizations of homicidal maniacs do tend to be dangerous.

 

[mheslep]

Did Saddam Hussein not qualify?

 

[Astronuc]

Did Saddam Hussein not qualify?

Certainly, but compared to Daesh, he was somewhat restrained. He mostly confined his terrorism domestically. He also enjoyed support of the US (Reagan and Bush I) until he invaded Kuwait.

 

[mheslep]

Certainly, but compared to Daesh, he was somewhat restrained.

I think any objective measure of that assertion would be hard to produce. Willful slaughter of the innocent? No.

 

[Astronuc]

Iraq seizes town on outskirts of Islamic State-held Tikrit
http://news.yahoo.com/battle-against-iraqi-forces-retake-town-near-tikrit-104652980.html

BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraqi soldiers and Shiite militiamen captured a town Tuesday on the outskirts of the Islamic State-held city of Tikrit, sealing off Saddam Hussein's hometown in preparation to confront the extremists in one of their biggest strongholds, officials said.

Seizing Alam puts the offensive on course to attempt to liberate Tikrit in the coming days, the ultimate battle-readiness test for Iraqi forces now advancing there without the support of U.S.-led airstrikes. Their operation likely will set the stage for how Iraq attempts to retake the more-densely populated cities of Mosul and Fallujah from the militants.
. . .

 

[Astronuc]

Daesh tightens its grip on Mosul residents
http://news.yahoo.com/group-tightens-grip-mosul-residents-064137341.html

BAGHDAD (AP) — Freedom from the Islamic State group comes at a steep price, as one newly wedded couple recently discovered. Eager to live a normal life, away from the harsh dominion of the militants' self-styled caliphate, the young pair is searching for ways to bypass the extremists' newly-implemented departure taxes and escape the IS-held city of Mosul.

Daesh is basically an organized crime syndicate/cartel, which controls through violence and intimidation, and extortion, or out-right theft.

 

[naima]

Daesh destroys antiquities, slays humanitarian workers, burn living people, uses kids on videos and so on. Their aim is not to provoke us in occident. They want that we reject our muslim people, that we hate them. This would increase the number of men and women for jihad. We have to think that they have a thought method. They have theorists for international propaganda