News Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

[Borg]

dammit Borg, I had just taken a bite of rice crispies when I read that...

We take no responsibility for proper food intake while reading Borg posts.

 

[HossamCFD]

Daesh captures an Iraqi town near a US base.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31449976

 

[Astronuc]

Iraqi Sunni tribal leader (and Iraqi MP) assassinated in Baghdad
http://news.yahoo.com/iraqi-sunni-tribal-leader-assassinated-baghdad-164829669.html

Baghdad (AFP) - A Sunni tribal leader, his son and seven bodyguards were killed in Baghdad, a cousin told AFP Saturday, in an attack that could inflame sectarian tension in Iraq.

Sheikh Qassem Sweidan al-Janabi and most of his bodyguards were shot in the head, while son was killed by a bullet to the chest, said Abu Qusay, speaking from the cemetery where they were buried.

Iraq's Sunni blocs halt parliament activities after sheikh's killing
http://news.yahoo.com/sunni-tribal-leader-seven-others-killed-baghdad-ambush-160007326.html

The mess just gets worse.Meanwhile - Daesh affiliates are popping up across the ME.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/...imbs_n_6684836.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

The Islamic State is expanding beyond its base in Syria and Iraq to establish militant affiliates in Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt and Libya, American intelligence officials assert, raising the prospect of a new an expanded global war on terror.

 

[HossamCFD]

Daesh affiliated group in Libya beheads 21 Egyptian Christians. Egypt responds by bombing Daesh targets in Libya the next day:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31483631

 

[Dotini]

Daesh affiliated group in Libya beheads 21 Egyptian Christians. Egypt responds by bombing Daesh targets in Libya the next day:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31483631

I was just watching a CNN discussion of the motivation for this incident. Peter Bergen and Robert Baer, perennial CNN talking heads, both agreed daesh ardently desires US and coalition boots on the ground - in fulfillment of apocalyptic prophecy which proclaims them [wrongly] the victors and the good guys. So they see a deliberate and designed provocation to draw in western armies on the ground.

 

[HossamCFD]

I was just watching a CNN discussion of the motivation for this incident. Peter Bergen and Robert Baer, perennial CNN talking heads, both agreed daesh ardently desires US and coalition boots on the ground - in fulfillment of apocalyptic prophecy which proclaims them [wrongly] the victors and the good guys. So they see a deliberate and designed provocation to draw in western armies on the ground.

Boots on the ground, western or otherwise, is definitely something Daesh is hoping for. I don't see it as the only motivation though regarding this particular incident. Egypt has been strategically, and allegedly militarily, aiding the almost exiled Libyan government in Tobruk, which make Egyptians a target as far as Daesh in Libya is concerned (of course they would have more contempt for Christian Egyptians than Muslims). Also, there has been a lot terrorist attacks specifically targeting Egyptian soldiers in Sinai recently by a group that has pledged allegiance to Daesh (their former name was Ansar Bayt Al-Maqdis, Champions of Jerusalem). These have claimed few dozens lives among Egyptian soldiers which Daesh regards as apostates. I don't think even Daesh is under the illusion that Egypt may (publicly) ask for foreign intervention in Sinai.

Regarding the recent Egyptian air strikes in Libya, this may turn ugly very quickly. First of all I do not trust the Egyptian forces have access to good enough intel to avoid bombing civilians. They certainly seem more concerned about saving their face and feel the need to do 'something', regardless of how effective it is or the collateral damage that may occur. Also if this escalates there are thousands of Egyptians living in Libya who can very easily become targets.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Here is a really interesting piece
http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/16/opinion/bergen-isis-enemies/index.html

When American aid worker Peter Kassig was murdered by ISIS in November, "Jihadi John" -- the masked British murderer who has appeared in so many ISIS videos -- said of Kassig: "We bury the first crusader in Dabiq, eagerly waiting for the rest of your armies to arrive."

In other words, ISIS wants a Western ground force to invade Syria, as that will confirm the prophecy about Dabiq.

We live in an increasingly secularized world, so it's sometimes difficult to take seriously the deeply held religious beliefs of others. For many of us the idea that the end of times will come with a battle between "Rome" and Islam at the obscure Syrian town of Dabiq is as absurd as the belief that the Mayans had that their human sacrifices could influence future events.

But for ISIS, the Dabiq prophecy is deadly serious. Members of ISIS believe that they are the vanguard fighting a religious war, which Allah has determined will be won by the forces of true Islam.

This website also has links to the ISIS magazines in english. They are extremely impressive in production. These are not made by some soliders in a desert hut. I should warn they often do include very graphic photos of their killing videos. If you can skip past those, reading the propaganda is extremely interesting.
http://www.clarionproject.org/news/islamic-state-isis-isil-propaganda-magazine-dabiq

 

[Astronuc]

I heard an interesting interview today - "Misunderstanding ‘What ISIS Daesh Really Wants"
http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2015/02/16/what-isis-wants

What ISIS Daesh Really Wants
http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

The Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths [but they are depraved, deranged and demented = criminally insane]. It is a religious (or perhaps anti-religious) apocalyptic ideological group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key agent of the coming apocalypse.

This is why crazy people should not be allowed access to guns or any other weapon that could harm others.

 

[jim hardy]

In order to win a war, it is not possible to harm only enemy soldiers without inflicting any harm at all on civilians. This is especially true when fighting "unconventional" terrorist enemies who dress as civilians and hide themselves among the civilian population. It is physically impossible to strike at them without killing some civilians, even some innocent people, among whom the terrorists live and plan their attacks.

US history gives two precedents of hurting civilians in order to end a war.
General Sherman said, before his march through the south:

"We cannot change the hearts and minds of those people of the South, but we can make war so terrible ... [and] make them so sick of war that generations would pass away before they would again appeal to it."

Harry Truman , born in Missouri just 20 years after the Civil War, doubtless heard his elders talking about Sherman. Myself i have no doubt that entered into his thinking about using The Bomb.

Did those ends justify those means?
i think so.

Should a civil war be put down from without?
I don't think so.

 

[Astronuc]

Italy to weigh military action in Libya if diplomacy fails
http://news.yahoo.com/italy-weigh-military-action-libya-diplomacy-fails-151857969.html

I'm sure some will see this as being somewhat prophetic - as in the 'Armies of Rome'.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

RT has a nice segment with Reza Aslan on ISIS. (first 15min is on atheism)
http://rt.com/shows/big-picture/197704-isis-islam-reza-aslan/

 

[256bits]

US history gives two precedents of hurting civilians in order to end a war.

That is, of course, assuming ISIS has the full support of the civilian population.
Most likely ISIS doesn't give a crap about what the population under their control thinks, or suffering they will endure.

 

[Astronuc]

Islamic State militants 'burn to death 45 in Iraq'
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31502863

I can't imagine anyone with a sound mind joining an organization like Daesh.Despite Horror in Libya, Experts Warn Against Military Action
https://gma.yahoo.com/despite-horror-libya-experts-warn-against-military-action-180331186--abc-news-topstories.html

And the alternative is?Meanwhile - Terror Inc.: How the Islamic State became a branding behemoth
http://news.yahoo.com/terror-inc---how-the-islamic-state-became-a-branding-behemoth-034732792.html

or how to misuse use the public domain - to glorify depraved criminal activity.

 

[Evan Maxwell]

This is why the administration's approach to this region has been so puzzling and dismaying. The US did fight a couple of wars in the region, if not to make things better, at least to keep them from getting worse. Obama has been tripping all over himself to get out of Baghdad as fast as he can, essentially saying, "Well, we tried, but it didn't make any difference that we spent all this blood and treasure here."

Expect more of the same in the near future in Afghanistan, once the drawdown of US forces there is complete. And don't expect the terrorist groups at the heart of this insurgency to confine their attentions to butchering the hapless Iraqis: once the insurgents run out of blood there, they will be looking for new victims the world over. They have captured large amounts of cash from banks in Iraq which can be used to fund new terror networks worldwide.

I do not think we have had a presidential administration in years who is able to consistently understand exactly what these types of enemies are after and what their goals are and the need to stop them before they gain any kind of influence. I have not seen much of anything that shows that Obama understands at all about the motivations of ISIS. Here is a key publication on this if you have not already seen it: http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

Basic premise - ISIS are not just a lonely group of isolated psychopaths by a long shot. They do have very powerful religious beliefs that have appealed to even well educated, richer folks in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere. Giving the Middle East more equality relative to the West and more economic opportunities will do nothing to dampen ISIS's motivation.

Luckily, ISIS seems to be on the run now, at least relative to where it was in the Middle of least year. That said, I am sure it has inspired future legions of Islamic terror groups with the exact same motivations.

 

[Borg]

Here is a key publication on this if you have not already seen it: http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

Astronuc posted that Monday in this thread (post 518).

 

[Evan Maxwell]

Oh I am sorry, I missed that, it is just really late here I guess. But this shows that these terror group justifies their actions though nothing else but a belief that they are fighting to serve God and bring about an apocalypse in which God will choose them to rule over the earth. And it does for sure validate exactly what I was saying above I think.

And I agree that groups like these should not have access to guns. But I am honestly not quite sure how we go about making sure they do not get guns. Terror organizations liker this one have exactly zero interest in what the laws about owning guns say or about what civilization expects from those who own guns. Surgical strikes and going to war with them seems to be the only way to prevent them from getting guns.

 

[Evan Maxwell]

Reza Alsan, btw, apparently did a 15 minute interview with Graeme Wood, the guy who wrote that guardian article and Aslan reiterated that the point was that, unfortunately, an interpretation of Islam was and is the inspiration for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

 

[Astronuc]

From the Atlantic article

It’s hard to overstate how hamstrung the Islamic State will be by its radicalism. The modern international system, born of the 1648 Peace of Westphalia, relies on each state’s willingness to recognize borders, however grudgingly. For the Islamic State, that recognition is ideological suicide. Other Islamist groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, have succumbed to the blandishments of democracy and the potential for an invitation to the community of nations, complete with a UN seat. Negotiation and accommodation have worked, at times, for the Taliban as well. (Under Taliban rule, Afghanistan exchanged ambassadors with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates, an act that invalidated the Taliban’s authority in the Islamic State’s eyes.) To the Islamic State these are not options, but acts of apostasy.

There is no reasoning with Daesh. They are committed to their violent ways.

Twitter under pressure to act more aggressively against terrorists
As the Islamic State’s go-to propaganda platform, the social media giant faces increasing demands to police its network

http://news.yahoo.com/twitter-under...ggressively-against-terrorists-230347109.html

So technically, Twitter is aiding terrorist organization who use their services as part of their propaganda machine. Hmmmm.

 

[jim hardy]

unfortunately, an interpretation of Islam was and is the inspiration for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

Islam would do well to deal with their problem before somebody from outside islam fixes it for them.

People have no qualms about exterminating a biological agent like Rabies that causes crazy aggressive behavior,.
If radical Islam continues de-humanizing themselves in the eyes of the world,, well, i fear it could get ugly.

"The beast keeps creeping out" Dr Moreau

 

[lisab]

What ISIS Daesh Really Wants
http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

Fascinating article. I can't see how the old-world idea of a Caliphate can possibly fit into today's world.

 

[Astronuc]

Fascinating article. I can't see how the old-world idea of a Caliphate can possibly fit into today's world.

It can't, since those aspiring to be part of the caliphate do not respect the existence of others who do not share their world view. Daesh is a threat to anyone who is not part of Daesh, and that includes Shia and Sunna, who are not part of Daesh.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Fascinating article. I can't see how the old-world idea of a Caliphate can possibly fit into today's world.

There goal is to replace today's world with that of the 7th century.

 

[Borg]

There goal is to replace today's world with that of the 7th century.

Ironically while using 21st century technology.

 

[Dotini]

US State Department figure says root cause of ISIS must be addressed by giving them jobs.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

US State Department figure says root cause of ISIS must be addressed by giving them jobs.

As a long term strategy of course. Half the reason they get so many recruits is that there are a lot of disgruntled and bored men wandering around a war torn landscape. This is up to the governments getting back in shape. That is half the problem.

 

[Pythagorean]

I wonder if jobs is really all it comes down to? The region needs to be in a better socioeconomic state, and jobs are a necessary condition, but are they sufficient?

Technically they have jobs in the regimes available to them. Isn't it infrastructure they need so that they can hold employment that will be more beneficial in the long term?

Imo, they need autonomous infrastructure, planned and implemented by themselves on their own time, but with reasonable global support.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

I wonder if jobs is really all it comes down to?

No, there will always be minor terror groups around, but they won't be making head line news every day if the region was in better shape socio-economically.

 

[Pythagorean]

Sorry, I meant within the domain of socioeconomics, is jobs all it really comes down to.

 

[Pythagorean]

Also, a stronger unified state identity to minimalize feudalism.

 

[Borg]

No, there will always be minor terror groups around, but they won't be making head line news every day if the region was in better shape socio-economically.

They could also do better with an education that didn't involve spending all day in a Madrasa. But, that's probably not the politically correct thing to say...