Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

[Astronuc]

I didn't see this mentioned anywhere in this thread, but apparently ISIS is planning on using those infected with AIDS as suicide bombers.

Daesh probably sees fighters with aids as expendable, but may also assume they can spread aids via suicide bombers (bioweapons). Likely the virus doesn't survive long outside a host body, so AIDS probably won't spread via an explosion. Possibly AIDS could be transmitted to other is shrapnel carries infected tissue into others.

 

[Astronuc]

Collateral damage - Migrant child's body on beach shocks Europe
http://news.yahoo.com/migrant-childs-body-beach-shocks-europe-195454090.html
Peace be upon him, and others who lost their lives in search of better lives.

Speaking to AFP, a Turkish rescue worker identified the boy as Aylan Kurdi. Media reports said he was three-years-old.

He was believed to be one of at least 12 Syrian migrants who died trying to reach Greece when their boats sank in Turkish waters.
. . . .
The rescue worker said the toddler from the Syrian Kurdish town of Kobane. Residents there had last year fled to Turkey year to escape violence by Islamic State (IS) extremists.

How to stop Assad and Daesh?

 

[Dotini]

How to stop Assad and Daesh?

IMO, In order to deal with Assad, we must court his Shiite and other minority backers inside Syria, as well as his external supporters Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah.
In order to deal with Daesh, we must court their majority Sunni backers inside Iraq and Syria, as well as their external backers in Saudi and other Sunni ME states.
The discredited General Patraeus goes so far as suggesting an alliance with al-Qaeda.

On the other hand, we along with our western European allies have already gone to great effort and expense to create a Middle East where Sunni is in apocalyptic war with Shia, virtually all states are failed, in conflict, or dealing with the greatest mass human migration since WWII, and we are out of the money and emotional commitment to do anything more. Whew! Perhaps the Machiavellians amongst us would say we should rest satisfied with what we have already accomplished in terms of setting our enemies at each other's throats?

In terms of humanitarian relief for the refugees, it is interesting that Chancellor Merkel is taking in 800,000/yr, but other Euro states are in great disagreement as to what to do.

IMO, the US and the UK should be morally obliged to take the most of them. As of today, I believe the US takes in 1000 Syrians/yr out of a total refugee intake of 60,000/yr.

 

[HossamCFD]

How to stop Assad and Daesh?

It's not clear if that's possible at all at this point. May be Syria doesn't have a future. May be the best thing to do is to just accept as many refugees as possible.

 

[blue_leaf77]

Just a fact, Arab Saudi is a nearby wealthy state, nevertheless they in present seem to be located in a different dimension.

 

[mheslep]

IMO, the US and the UK should be morally obliged to take the most of them. As of today, I believe the US takes in 1000 Syrians/yr out of a total refugee intake of 60,000/yr.

Why the US and UK? Why not Canada? Hungary? Ukraine? France? Japan?

The US takes in well over one million legal immigrants year after year. And then there are the illegal entrants. How many are you morally obliged to take into your own home?

 

[jim hardy]

IMO, the US and the UK should be morally obliged to take the most of them.

I'd rather the twenty-five signatories to PNAC were exiled over there.

 

[Astronuc]

Daesh fighters take Syrian state's last oilfield: monitor
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/07/us-mideast-crisis-syria-oilfield-idUSKCN0R716620150907

http://www.syriahr.com/en/2015/09/islamic-state-seizes-the-last-oilfield-in-syria/

They are not going away any time soon.

 

[HossamCFD]

US official: 'IS making and using chemical weapons in Iraq and Syria'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34211838

The US has identified at least four occasions on both sides of the Iraq-Syria border where IS has used mustard agents, the official said.

 

[Astronuc]

Al Qaeda Leader Al-Zawahiri Declares War on Daesh 'Caliph' Al-Baghdadi
http://news.yahoo.com/al-qaeda-leader-al-zawahiri-declares-war-isis-151231254--abc-news-topstories.html

“It’s pretty interesting,” said former National Counterterrorism Center Director Matthew Olsen. “Zawahiri until now has not been willing to openly condemn Baghdadi and ISIS. It highlights how deep the division is between al Qaeda leadership and ISIS. It suggests that the differences are irreconcilable.”

 

[Czcibor]

Al Qaeda Leader Al-Zawahiri Declares War on Daesh 'Caliph' Al-Baghdadi
http://news.yahoo.com/al-qaeda-leader-al-zawahiri-declares-war-isis-151231254--abc-news-topstories.html

I've read a similar story from Libya... and a local person happy that his town was liberated (?) from ISIS by... more moderate Al-quaeda offshoot.
http://www.spiegel.de/international...al-of-life-in-libyan-purgatory-a-1051422.html

 

[Czcibor]

Russia intensified its humanitarian aid for Syria. So far there arrived half dozen of Russian tanks, except from already 200 soldiers to protect Lakatia airport. According to rumours there is more battle ready humanitarian aid to be transported by sea.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/14/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUSKCN0RE1LH20150914

 

[mheslep]

I'm curious what facts about the Russian arms delivery justify the label "humanitarian" as opposed to, say, "support for Assad"

 

[Czcibor]

I'm curious what facts about the Russian arms delivery justify the label "humanitarian" as opposed to, say, "support for Assad"

I'm kidding a bit because Russians were saying recently somewhat about delivering humanitarian aid to Syria, while now Americans mentioned spotting there Russian forces. The existence of military units is officially denied by Russia.

 

[Astronuc]

Putin's actions certainly add a new dimension to the problem that is Syria.
http://news.yahoo.com/putin-pledges-keep-military-support-syrias-assad-103001576.html

Dushanbe (Tajikistan) (AFP) - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday pledged to continue military support for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad after Washington sounded the alarm over an alleged military build-up by Moscow in the war-torn country.

"We support the government of Syria in its fight against terrorist aggression, we provide and will go on providing it with all necessary military assistance," Putin said at a regional security conference in ex-Soviet Tajikistan.
. . .
Putin said that Assad was willing to work with Syria's "healthy" opposition to find a political solution to the four-and-a-half year civil war but insisted that tackling IS was the priority.

 

[Dotini]

Some major developments going on in Syria.

According to Michael R Gordon writing in the NY Times, the US has begun mil-to-mil talks in coordination with Russia's sudden build-up in the Latakia district, a pivot for the administration. The new Russian base is deploying advanced fighters, troop-transport helicopters, helicopter gunships and tanks.

 

[mheslep]

Some major developments going on in Syria.

According to Michael R Gordon writing in the NY Times, the US has begun mil-to-mil talks in coordination with Russia's sudden build-up in the Latakia district, a pivot for the administration.

This coordination must be how Obama interprets the imposition of "greater political and economic isolation" on Putin for invading Ukraine, as Obama put it in the phone call last year. Another U.S. warning against hostile action turned into so much noise.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pres...eadout-president-obama-s-call-president-putin

 

[nsaspook]

Some major developments going on in Syria.

According to Michael R Gordon writing in the NY Times, the US has begun mil-to-mil talks in coordination with Russia's sudden build-up in the Latakia district, a pivot for the administration. The new Russian base is deploying advanced fighters, troop-transport helicopters, helicopter gunships and tanks.

That's understandable when forces are in the field. You need to exchange common IFF and ID codes for tracking systems so 'friendly fire' incidents are reduced. They are there whither we like it or not so you need to make it work at the field operational level even if the political sides are at odds with each other. Same thing happened in the Cold War so I wouldn't read much into it as a change in our policy with Syria.

 

[mheslep]

Russian's armed entry into Syria makes it the regional arbiter. So there's that as a change.

 

[nsaspook]

Russian's armed entry into Syria makes it the regional arbiter. So there's that as a change.

Yes, the change is the Russian military openly using regular forces in Syria. They never left unofficially, used their power in the region to broker a deal on the Chemical weapons mess (actually forced a deal on the US ) since the start of the Syria Civil War. Their policy has changed , not OUR policy IRT Assad and his alliance with Russia to keep him in power. My personal belief is that Assad is better than the alternatives to him as he is beholden to Russia and they are marginally on our side in the fight with IS.

 

[mheslep]

Of course US policy has changed with regard to Russia and its activities in Syria, as the references above indicate. For sometime the Obama administration's policy has been to get rid of Assad. For sometime US policy has been to enforce "greater political and economic isolation" on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, to include sanctions. Now US policy is to allow a major power, Russia, to support Assad with heavy weapons and troops.

 

[Czcibor]

Of course US policy has changed with regard to Russia and its activities in Syria, as the references above indicate. For sometime the Obama administration's policy has been to get rid of Assad. For sometime US policy has been to enforce "greater political and economic isolation" on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, to include sanctions. Now US policy is to allow a major power, Russia, to support Assad with heavy weapons and troops.

I wonder whether it is indeed a policy or just an acceptance of lack of power to force Russians otherwise. Bulgaria just blocked Russian air transport there, it happened on US request. Russians avoided the whole problem through Iran.

Anyway - leading to situation of Russians vs. ISIS, is it really so bad result?

 

[HossamCFD]

Anyway - leading to situation of Russians vs. ISIS, is it really so bad result?

There's a difference between Russians vs ISIS, and Russians putting their weapons at Assad's disposal, who is then free to use them against all his enemies.

 

[nsaspook]

I wonder whether it is indeed a policy or just an acceptance of lack of power to force Russians otherwise. Bulgaria just blocked Russian air transport there, it happened on US request. Russians avoided the whole problem through Iran.

Anyway - leading to situation of Russians vs. ISIS, is it really so bad result?

It's bad for the enemies of Assad. For Russia the importance of keeping him is power overrides US concerns and Russia seems not to care much about the plight of the Syria people at large. Our acceptance of the situation is completely logical given our lack of influence in the region and dealing with the Russian military on ground rules is the smart thing to do.

 

[Czcibor]

There's a difference between Russians vs ISIS, and Russians putting their weapons at Assad's disposal, who is then free to use them against all his enemies.

The problem is that Assad was bright enough to concentrate on eliminating moderate opposition, thus there is not much left out of FSA. It leaves him (and his Russian patrons) on fighting in long run with ISIS.

EDIT: If such plan works out, Obama, to his own surprise, would be remembered as Machiavellian mastermind.

 

[HossamCFD]

If such plan works out, Obama, to his own surprise, would be remembered as Machiavellian mastermind.

I mean even if such plan works out what will it solve? ISIS is defeated (assuming someone will take care of ISIS in Iraq) but Assad is ever more powerful because of the Russian support. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians will still die and millions will still flee.

 

[Czcibor]

I mean even if such plan works out what will it solve? ISIS is defeated (assuming someone will take care of ISIS in Iraq) but Assad is ever more powerful because of the Russian support. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians will still die and millions will still flee.

I do not see in Syria in foreseeable future real chance for any sane and moderate gov. Thus end of civil war and thuggish peace under Assad seem as not too bad result for local population in comparison to other probable scenarios. (I know, a while ago looked as if Iranians toyed with idea to to sacrifice Assad to build wider coalition, but nothing crystallize out of it)

Reminder - I'm Polish, so I consider Gruz 200 (Soviet Union military code name for dead bodies) returning to Moscow as good result on its own. Plus I consider a serious overextension of their power as a situation that can cause a very desirable result already in medium run.

 

[HossamCFD]

Thus end of civil war and thuggish peace under Assad

That's exactly the point I'm contesting. I don't think that even the hypothetical complete defeat of ISIS will bring an end to the civil war. The civil war certainly didn't start with ISIS. They rose to the scene about a year into the civil war. I might be mistaken though.

 

[Czcibor]

That's exactly the point I'm contesting. I don't think that even the hypothetical complete defeat of ISIS will bring an end to the civil war. The civil war certainly didn't start with ISIS. They rose to the scene about a year into the civil war. I might be mistaken though.

I think that you're correct, in the same way as the French Revolution started with quite moderate demands, and genocidal fraction and leaders appeared later, when setbacks let everything radicalise. Same here.

But this part "how it started" is not crucial now, but "who is left standing". When there is not much left of moderate. I know that such clamp down, as in case of Hama massacre of 1982 would leave fully justified level of hate, then would explode sooner or later. But there is no stable solution left.

 

[HossamCFD]

But this part "how it started" is not crucial now, but "who is left standing". When there is not much left of moderate. I know that such clamp down, as in case of Hama massacre of 1982 would leave fully justified level of hate, then would explode sooner or later. But there is no stable solution left.

Yes you're probably right. With ISIS out of the question and the moderates pretty much out of the game at this point, Assad might be able put an end to the war.