News Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

[Astronuc]

Daesh threat grows as 'caliphate' enters second year
http://news.yahoo.com/threat-grows-caliphate-enters-second-100440600.html

Beirut (AFP) - The Islamic State group's "caliphate" enters its second year Monday with the jihadists expanding their territory in Syria and Iraq, and their global reach, by claiming attacks in Tunisia and Kuwait.

The extremist group headed by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced on June 29, 2014 that it was reviving a form of Islamic government known as the "caliphate", pledging it would "remain and expand".

In the year since, the group has gained more territory in Syria and Iraq despite an attempted [counterattack] supported by a US-led coalition air campaign.

It has also attracted a string of affiliates -- in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Pakistan and elsewhere -- and sought to project fear on an international scale.
. . . .

 

[HossamCFD]

Sinai Province, Daesh affiliate in Egypt, are stepping up terrorists attacks in Egypt. On Monday, a bomb explosion killed the state prosecutor in Cairo. The following day another car bomb exploded near a police station in Cairo killing three people.

El Sisi's response was to vow legal reforms so that death sentences can be enforced more swiftly.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33335504

Today a major terrorist attack occurred in Sinai. Terrorists attacked five checkpoints near Sheikh Zewaid town in northern Sinai simultaneously with mortars, RPGs, and suicide car bombs. This is unprecedented. It looks like they are trying to capture the town as opposed to their usual hit and run. The attack has been going on for hours and they're currently besieging the main police station in the town .

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33340458

Security and army officials told the Associated Press that at least 50 troops had been killed and 55 wounded, and that several had also been taken captive.

Most of those who were killed are just conscripts who only wanted to finish their compulsory service time and go back to their lives. I had a lot of friends who spent their army service time in Sinai, though it was calmer back then. I was lucky enough that the random number generator didn't pick my birth date, so I was exempt from military service.

 

[Czcibor]

The 20-minute video published on Jaysh al-Islam's website on Tuesday mimics those produced by IS to announce the killing of government soldiers and Western hostages.

It includes similarly sectarian language, with IS members accused of betraying their fellow Sunni Muslims and allying themselves with "enemy Shia" and "Nusayris", a derogatory term for the heterodox Alawite sect to which President Bashar al-Assad belongs.

But in a clear subversion, the alleged IS fighters dressed in black robes with black balaclavas are shown being marched in chains through the Syrian countryside by armed men wearing the orange clothes which IS captives have been forced to wear before their deaths.

The last part of the video shows the 18 men in black kneeling before their Jaysh al-Islam captors, who remove their balaclavas before shooting them in the head with rifles.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33342943

Hope that those executed ISIS members appreciated such flexible interpretation of their tradition... ;)

 

[Astronuc]

Daesh executes one of its OWN top officials in Mosul after rumours circulated that he was planning a coup
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Mosul-rumours-circulated-planning-coup.html

That just might discourage some folks to join Daesh or remain.

 

[Tony Stark]

5 June 2015
ISIS video shows execution of 25 men in ruins of Syria amphitheater. Recently, ISIS has also made massive advancements in Middle East and Southern Asia. Reports declare the ISIS groups have reached in Pakistan and trying to infiltrate in China and India. The terror group has also reinforced itself by capturing advanced weaponry and procured missiles by different clients.
On the other hands, governments around the world are relying only on US to annihilate the group. Under this case, ISIS future seems to have no near end..

 

[Astronuc]

Daesh has affiliates or sympathetic groups outside of Iraq-Syria

Afghanistan says US strikes destroy its Islamic State branch
http://news.yahoo.com/activists-28-killed-syrian-army-strikes-held-town-102327318.html

Too many disaffected or nihilistic individuals with weapons.

 

[mheslep]

Too many disaffected or nihilistic individuals with weapons.

True enough yet that summary still smacks of "JV team", something to be dealt with by the county sheriff and social services. I suspect similar summaries were made about the Bolsheviks and Chinese Maoists in the 30s.

 

[Czcibor]

5 June 2015
ISIS video shows execution of 25 men in ruins of Syria amphitheater. Recently, ISIS has also made massive advancements in Middle East and Southern Asia. Reports declare the ISIS groups have reached in Pakistan and trying to infiltrate in China and India. The terror group has also reinforced itself by capturing advanced weaponry and procured missiles by different clients.
On the other hands, governments around the world are relying only on US to annihilate the group. Under this case, ISIS future seems to have no near end..

I think that ex. Iranians would disagree with you about only US being determined to anihilate ISIS.

(yes, ISIS has got high skill in making enemies all over the world)

 

[Astronuc]

One more reason to bring an end to Daesh - http://news.yahoo.com/training-camp-children-told-behead-doll-020639195.html#

 

[mheslep]

The relevant question is not whether or not to end Daesh, but how.

 

[HossamCFD]

a depressing but insightful account of a gay man who fled Daesh, after his father was willing to hand him over.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33565055

 

[Astronuc]

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...to-allow-its-soil-for-airstrikes-against-isis
Turkey Agrees To Allow Use Of Its Soil For Airstrikes Against Daesh

This after a Daesh suicide bomber attacked in Suruc Turkey
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb58f4e4-3059-11e5-91ac-a5e17d9b4cff.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ack-on-turkish-border-town-live-10401885.htmlAnd it appears Turkey is stepping into the fray
Turkish jets strike several Islamic State targets in Syria
http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-says-jets-strike-targets-syria-050147139.html

 

[Astronuc]

http://news.yahoo.com/us-turkey-seek-establish-islamic-state-free-zone-101202680--politics.html#

I think it needs to be much, much larger!

 

[Czcibor]

The problem is that Turkey also uses a chance to bomb Kurds. So effectively ISIS got an air support.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ocess-kurds-splinters-car-bomb-kills-soldiers

 

[mheslep]

http://news.yahoo.com/us-turkey-seek-establish-islamic-state-free-zone-101202680--politics.html#

I think it needs to be much, much larger!

The relevant question is what action should be sanctioned to make it happen. A serious US air campaign? US ground troops?

 

[Dotini]

And it appears Turkey is stepping into the fray

“This isn’t an overhaul of their thinking," a Western official in Ankara told the Guardian. "It’s more a reaction to what they’ve been confronted with by the Americans and others. There is at least a recognition now that ISIS isn’t leverage against Assad. They have to be dealt with.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/links-between-turkey-isis-now-195700510.html

 

[Czcibor]

One question to think about - at this moment does Turkey or Iran more behave like US ally?

 

[HossamCFD]

One question to think about - at this moment does Turkey or Iran more behave like US ally?

True. At this very moment US and Iranian interests in Syria and Iraq coincide. However this will only last as long as ISIS does. With ISIS outside of the picture the US and Iran will be at odds again. The US is interested in an Iraq inclusive of its Sunni populace and an Assad-free Syria, both are not in the interest of Iran.

Turkey's behaviour is indeed very frustrating though. Their initial reluctance to make any effort to combat ISIS and when they're finally forced to do something about it they use the opportunity to fight the kurds; the group that's arguably most successful at combating ISIS.

 

[Dembadon]

The relevant question is what action should be sanctioned to make it happen. A serious US air campaign? US ground troops?

While airstrikes have no doubt been working, without a strong ground presence I'm not sure how effective we'll be at moving into some of ISIS's more entrenched positions. The fact that ISIS has melded with civilian populations in Aleppo and other major cities and towns limits support from the air and makes delivering on-target precision munitions much more difficult.

My main concern is whether we are training enough moderate rebels to be effective. I prefer the "train and equip" method to sending in our own ground forces, but we need enough dependable partners on the ground lest we risk spinning our wheels. If other members of the coalition would commit to the training and ground support of the rebels, I believe it would not only boost military effectiveness of the rebels, but also their morale.

 

[Czcibor]

True. At this very moment US and Iranian interests in Syria and Iraq coincide. However this will only last as long as ISIS does. With ISIS outside of the picture the US and Iran will be at odds again. The US is interested in an Iraq inclusive of its Sunni populace and an Assad-free Syria, both are not in the interest of Iran.

Turkey's behaviour is indeed very frustrating though. Their initial reluctance to make any effort to combat ISIS and when they're finally forced to do something about it they use the opportunity to fight the kurds; the group that's arguably most successful at combating ISIS.

I wonder whether the US still consider in A.D. 2015 replacing Assad by someone nicer and keeping Iraq as one state as realistic goals.

 

[Dotini]

I prefer to reinforce Assad and work with the Russians and Iranians to defeat ISIS. The Sunnis need to learn they're not going to ride roughshod over the minorities. Once they have this epiphany of moderation, then we can help them.

 

[HossamCFD]

The Sunnis need to learn they're not going to ride roughshod over the minorities.

Sound advice. Not sure if it only applies to Sunnis in the region though. Also the way you phrase it seems to neglect the fact that many of ISIS victims, and a lot of the factions fighting against it, are indeed Sunnis.

I prefer to reinforce Assad...

I can't think of any situation that would morally justify such action. He is barrel-bombing his own civilians on a massive scale. Your reinforcements would far more likely land on innocent civilians heads than target ISIS fighters. After all, Assad doesn't seem too keen on fighting ISIS anyway. He's more concerned about the other rebel groups (moderate/non-ISIS Islamists, admittedly the line is blurred).

 

[HossamCFD]

I wonder whether the US still consider in A.D. 2015 replacing Assad by someone nicer and keeping Iraq as one state as realistic goals.

I'm not too sure about the internal dynamics of the current US administration. But I don't see dividing Iraq along ethnic and religious lines as an easier alternative.

 

[Dembadon]

I wonder whether the US still consider in A.D. 2015 replacing Assad by someone nicer and keeping Iraq as one state as realistic goals.

It's a gamble. When Washington officials suggested Maliki, he was essentially a political unknown. We knew a few things about him; he had served on the de-Baathification committee and had no apparent connections with terrorist organizations, but I don't think anyone expected the political sectarian purging that ensued shortly after his appointment as PM. It's unclear to me whether his actions were the result of fear/paranoia, or some hidden agenda that he'd had all along. In any case, I hope it's an experience that will inform future decisions on our involvement with any political dealings regarding Middle Eastern leaders.

I have strong reservations about the US being involved in finding and establishing political leaders in the ME. It's very difficult to predict how things will play-out. Should things go poorly, I'm afraid of another "Maliki situation". Whoever takes over will likely face overwhelming pressure from sectarian ideological differences that could easily lead to the political exclusion of other sects, which was the impetus for tensions at the start of this whole thing and the vicious cycle begins anew. A more neutral leader would likely have to come from abroad, which would certainly be spun as "colonial/imperial invaders" by the anti-democratic population. As has been mentioned many times, this is an incredibly messy situation for which there is no clear solution.

 

[Dembadon]

Abductions Hurt U.S. Bid to Train Anti-ISIS Rebels in Syria

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/31/world/middleeast/us-trained-islamic-state-opponents-reported-kidnapped-in-syria.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-3&action=click&contentCollection=Middle East&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article

A Pentagon program to train moderate Syrian insurgents to fight the Islamic State has been vexed with problems of recruitment, screening, dismissals and desertions that have left only a tiny band of fighters ready to do battle.
...
The biggest kidnapping prize on Thursday was a leader of the trainees, Nadeem Hassan. When the Pentagon announced the program last year, Mr. Hassan helped to gather several groups totaling 1,200 insurgents, who were already fighting in Syria and willing to join the training.
...
In an interview just two days earlier, Mr. Hassan spoke about the troubles he had faced.

After screening, just 125 of his recruits were invited to the first course. Of those, more than half were thrown out or quit.

The rest, he said, had deployed back to Syria but had not been told whether American warplanes would defend them if Syrian forces attacked.

I mentioned the training program a few posts ago, I guess I shouldn't get my hopes up any time soon; this is not good news for the program. Apart from kidnappings, there seem to be many who don't want to commit to ignoring Assad to focus on ISIS. If the recruitment and training situation doesn't improve, I fear coalition ground forces might be the only option left.

 

[Czcibor]

I can't think of any situation that would morally justify such action. He is barrel-bombing his own civilians on a massive scale. Your reinforcements would far more likely land on innocent civilians heads than target ISIS fighters. After all, Assad doesn't seem too keen on fighting ISIS anyway. He's more concerned about the other rebel groups (moderate/non-ISIS Islamists, admittedly the line is blurred).

The problem is, and some Westerners already start to see it - a limited ability of the West to impose their will on ME. I mean there is some ability to level something, but its terribly problematic to install any gov, looking like what the West desires. Standard problem that in the ME, the West has to love some repugnant dictators, as alternative lies usually somewhere between tribal war and Islamic fundamentalism.

I'm not too sure about the internal dynamics of the current US administration. But I don't see dividing Iraq along ethnic and religious lines as an easier alternative.

Concerning internal dynamics in the US - indeed a mystery for me, they preferred to fight in Vietnam for quite a while. Concerning Iraq - it more or less already happened, just the final touch would involve doing official paperwork (referendum?) and helping to install a nicer gov for Arab Sunnis, this time with better perspectives, as they would not be govern by some undesired Shia. I consider this as the least bad idea. (and for me is not obvious whether Iraq can exist as single semi-democratic state, as the West dreamt)

Please suggest which other way of solving this mess by the US (with minor help of Europe).

 

[Bystander]

Concerning internal dynamics in the US - indeed a mystery for me,

No mystery --- elected a "quitter" in 2008, re-elected him in 2012, and ceased to be an interested, involved, effective influence anywhere in the world. It will take fifty years to a century for the U.S. to recover any respect, trust, or influence in the world IF the electorate/public re-engages with the concept that its actions, or failures to act, DO have consequences. Do not hold your breath.

 

[HossamCFD]

Standard problem that in the ME, the West has to love some repugnant dictators, as alternative lies usually somewhere between tribal war and Islamic fundamentalism.

Assad is way more than just a repugnant dictator.
I understand western pragmatism when it comes to the middle east. Assad is different. If human lives matter at all, if there is any moral point to all of this, helping Assad should not be on the table.

Concerning Iraq - it more or less already happened, just the final touch would involve doing official paperwork (referendum?) and helping to install a nicer gov for Arab Sunnis, this time with better perspectives, as they would not be govern by some undesired Shia. I consider this as the least bad idea. (and for me is not obvious whether Iraq can exist as single semi-democratic state, as the West dreamt)

Please suggest which other way of solving this mess by the US (with minor help of Europe).

I really don't know. It just doesn't seem to me that the partition of Iraq between Sunnis and Shiites would be a peaceful process. Who would take Baghdad? Why would the current Shia government be content with losing half the country when they rule the whole thing at the moment?

 

[Czcibor]

No mystery --- elected a "quitter" in 2008, re-elected him in 2012, and ceased to be an interested, involved, effective influence anywhere in the world. It will take fifty years to a century for the U.S. to recover any respect, trust, or influence in the world IF the electorate/public re-engages with the concept that its actions, or failures to act, DO have consequences. Do not hold your breath.

Honestly speaking I think you exaggerate. I mean bigger scandals got covered up within a few years.

Assad is way more than just a repugnant dictator.
I understand western pragmatism when it comes to the middle east. Assad is different. If human lives matter at all, if there is any moral point to all of this, helping Assad should not be on the table.

I mean if he wanted to live as doctor or on a generous early retirement in ex. Iran, then it would not be a problem. Otherwise it would be. Western armies would have to beat him, beat Hezbollah and beat Islamic State to enforce its power there (not mentioning some local groups / regional powers that would oppose it). Then install its gov, and occupy Syria for over a decade, just to make this gov stay.

Huge effort. Huge cost. Huge number of flag wrapped coffins coming back. Meagre effect and the West would lose in Muslim eyes as evil colonialists / imperialists.

In order to prevent West loosing further in Muslim eyes, it seems it would be better to West image just look how Muslim slaughter (mostly) fellow Muslims.

I really don't know. It just doesn't seem to me that the partition of Iraq between Sunnis and Shiites would be a peaceful process. Who would take Baghdad? Why would the current Shia government be content with losing half the country when they rule the whole thing at the moment?

Baghdad - I would think it would be a fait accompli - Shia. They would have to give up mostly the regions, that they don't control anyway. To keep some pretences of democracy, even the border can be made based on referendum.

 

[Dotini]

Assad is way more than just a repugnant dictator.
I understand western pragmatism when it comes to the middle east. Assad is different. If human lives matter at all, if there is any moral point to all of this, helping Assad should not be on the table.

I respectfully disagree.

Assad was leader of an established and recognized sovereign nation when it came under attack by armed revolutionaries. Exactly like any good leader, he defended his nation from attack. IMO, we should have helped him, and not the rebels.

Whatever his failings may be, Assad provided durable protection for minorities. This counts as something very important. People from diverse religions lived in peace. Men could shave and drink alcohol. Women could wear western garb and makeup.

On the altar of our own moral epiphanies, we supported his overthrow, and it failed. We have sacrificed roughly enforced secularity and stability for an utopian dream which has turned into a bloody nightmare, and we have blood on our hands in the cold light of dawn.

Along with Libya, Iraq, Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen, we have assisted in the creation of yet another gruesome failed or garrison state in Syria. There is a certain "ism" which can justify all these failures on the grounds that our intentions were noble and unexpected consequences don't matter. I am of the opinion that actions have consequences, and the responsibility for them must be accepted by realists. It's said there are 5 stages of acceptance, starting with denial, anger and ridicule. So I apologize if I have made anyone here angry or raised their level of emotional discomfort.