Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

[nsaspook]

Maybe Turkey will use ground troops to stop ISIS.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/02/world/meast/isis-air-strikes/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Gaziantep, Turkey (CNN) -- Is a possible threat to an ancient tomb at the heart of Turkey's debate on whether to step up its role in the fight against ISIS?

The Turkish Parliament is debating and will vote later Thursday on whether to authorize the use of military force against ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq.
...
The fighting has only intensified in the region in recent days, with ISIS advancing and nearly surrounding the Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani, known in Arabic as Ayn al-Arab, just a few miles from the tomb and on the border with Turkey.

If ISIS takes Kobani, it will control a complete swath of land from its self-declared capital of Raqqa on the Euphrates River to the Turkish border, more than 100 kilometers (60 miles) away.
...
The abuses "include attacks directly targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, executions and other targeted killings of civilians, abductions, rape and other forms of sexual and physical violence perpetrated against women and children, forced recruitment of children, destruction or desecration of places of religious or cultural significance, wanton destruction and looting of property, and denial of fundamental freedoms," the report said.

 

[HossamCFD]

Maybe Turkey will use ground troops to stop ISIS.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/02/world/meast/isis-air-strikes/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

I'm not sure if Iraq would allow them.

From the BBC article I linked to in the last post:

Talking to the BBC in Baghdad, Mr Abadi said Iraq's army would defeat IS "if we have good air cover" but stressed that no foreign ground troops were needed.

"We are very clear we will not accept any troops on the ground except Iraqi troops," he added.

Syria might be a different story though.

 

[nsaspook]

I'm not sure if Iraq would allow them.

From the BBC article I linked to in the last post:Syria might be a different story though.

It looks like they are going into Syria for sure.

update on the link:

Gaziantep, Turkey (CNN) -- Turkish lawmakers voted Thursday to authorize military force against ISIS in Syria and Iraq, joining a growing international coalition against the Islamist militants as they continued to capture territory just south of Turkey's border.

The Turkish Parliament voted 298-98 to not only to let the country's military leave its borders to battle ISIS but to eliminate threats coming from any terrorist organization in Iraq and Syria, starting Saturday.

 

[Astronuc]

Nothing new, but - Islamic State committing 'staggering' crimes in Iraq: U.N. report

GENEVA (Reuters) - Islamic State insurgents in Iraq have carried out mass executions, abducted women and girls as sex slaves, and used child soldiers in what may amount to systematic war crimes that demand prosecution, the United Nations said on Thursday.

In a report based on 500 interviews with witnesses, also said Iraqi government air strikes on the Sunni Muslim militants had caused "significant civilian deaths" by hitting villages, a school and hospitals in violation of international law.

At least 9,347 civilians had been killed and 17,386 wounded so far this year through September, well over half of them since the Islamist insurgents also known as ISIL and ISIS began seizing large parts of northern Iraq in early June, the report said.
. . . .

http://news.yahoo.com/islamic-state-committing-staggering-violations-iraq-u-n-091141719.html

 

[nsaspook]

Marine lost at sea.
http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=83658

MANAMA, Bahrain (NNS) -- U.S. forces in the North Arabian Gulf concluded a search and rescue operation for a missing U.S. Marine Corps aircrew member today at 3:00 p.m. (GMT), after efforts to locate him were unsuccessful. The Marine is presumed lost at sea.

The Marine aircrew member went into the water yesterday when the aircraft he was aboard lost power shortly after takeoff from USS Makin Island (LHD 8). Another air crewman also exited the aircraft at the same time and was safely recovered. He is in stable condition aboard Makin Island.

 

[HossamCFD]

Another british aid worker beheaded
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29485405
This is too sad!

 

[nsaspook]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-minister-vowed-possible-save-Islamists.html

 

[lisab]

Another british aid worker beheaded
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29485405
This is too sad!

I agree. Just another case of their extreme brutality, which will ultimately be the death of them. There is nothing that can contain such cruelty for very long. They will rot from the inside out.

 

[Astronuc]

Hit extremists with 'iron hand': top Saudi cleric
http://news.yahoo.com/top-saudi-cleric-warns-chaos-hajj-speech-134604009.html

MOUNT ARAFAT (Saudi Arabia) (AFP) - Muslim leaders must strike the enemies of Islam with "an iron hand", Saudi Arabia's top cleric said during Friday prayers, in apparent condemnation of the Islamic State jihadist group.

. . . .

A nasty bunch -
Islamic State backs up force in Syria with threats, taunting calls
http://news.yahoo.com/islamic-state-backs-force-syria-threats-taunting-calls-172818294.html

 

[mheslep]

I agree. Just another case of their extreme brutality, which will ultimately be the death of them. There is nothing that can contain such cruelty for very long. They will rot from the inside out.

We're hearing quite a bit of the self-resolving problem argument, from the President in particular, i.e. the repeated "wrong side of history" references. I fear the view is dangerous, as it suggests the threat will resolve itself without action if left for time to resolve. But time is a construct; people acting solves problems. The totalitarians in the first part of the 20th century were on the wrong side of history, but they killed ~50 million people by industrializing cruelty for years before history closed the book.

This idea appears to be built-in and surfaces periodically, I suppose because http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0000746/quotesroutine of civilized life that threats to that life are often met with denial. The best selling book "The Great Illusion" published just before WWI argued that war was unprofitable, completely against the interest of all great powers, and the idea that war was in fact impossible became popular until sometime before gas flowed through the trenches.

http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/tag/nato/

“The powerful bonds of commercial interest between ourselves and Germany, have been immensely strengthened in recent years … removing Germany from the list of our possible foes.”

 

[HossamCFD]

We're hearing quite a bit of the self-resolving problem argument, from the President in particular, i.e. the repeated "wrong side of history" references. I fear the view is dangerous, as it suggests the threat will resolve itself without action if left for time to resolve. But time is a construct; people acting solves problems. The totalitarians in the first part of the 20th century were on the wrong side of history, but they killed ~50 million people by industrializing cruelty for years before history closed the book.

I don't think anyone is arguing for inaction, and I definitely agree that threats like these should not be downplayed and left to resolve themselves. But I do think that their madness and almost unbelievable brutality will contribute to their downfall. Had ISIS been less genocidal and less keen on on-camera beheadings, yet still ideologically the same, the chain of events over the last few months would've been altered to their favour. For instance the UK involvement had only been in reconnaissance and humanitarian aid when the first beheadings occurred and one can argue that these beheadings played an important role in convincing british MPs to authorise air strikes in Iraq (and Syria might be next). Had the Yazidis not been trapped on mount Sinjar, threatened with imminent death or sex slavery, or the christians in Mosul not been forced to convert or pay the 'Jizya', the swift US military involvement could've been avoided.

I'm aware of many people who share ISIS ideology and their anti-western anti-shia rhetoric yet could not, at least openly, sympathise with them because they couldn't bring themselves to justify their atrocities. If that's also the case in the places they control then very soon they could be going about this war alone.

 

[Astronuc]

http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-president-demands-apology-biden-091236171.html

Responding to questions following his speech at the Harvard Kennedy School on Thursday, Biden described Erdogan as "an old friend." Biden added: "He (Erdogan) said: 'You were right. We let too many people through.' Now they're trying to seal their border."

Erdogan disputes the claim and demanded an apology. Joe Biden called to apologize. Biden needs to be diplomatic, i.e., be more cautious in what or how he makes statements, and sometimes he needs to refrain from making statements about sensitive matters.

Meanwhile, Turkey seems to be stepping into the fray.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/02/world/meast/isis-air-strikes/index.html

Iran warns Turkey on Syria, and Syria says stay out. (some different perspectives on the story)
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/185761#.VDCX8ZstCpp
http://en.alalam.ir/news/1637679
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/07/25/iran-warns-turkey-to-butt-out-syria/Meanwhile - "Also on Saturday, the Pakistani Taliban declared allegiance to Islamic State and ordered militants across the region to help the group in its campaign to set up a global Islamic caliphate."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...isis-syrian-town-turkish-leader-rebukes-biden

A second front in Pakistan and Afghanistan would be troubling.

 

[jim hardy]

A second front in Pakistan and Afghanistan would be troubling.

particularly when one considers recent US military "Reductions in Force"

 

[Astronuc]

Kurds battle IS for key Syria town as fire spills over border
http://news.yahoo.com/jihadists-murder-briton-battle-kurdish-town-225117948.html

 

[Dotini]

The relationship of the Turks to the Kurds is puzzling. To me, the role played by Turkey in the current crisis is incomprehensible. But maybe it's too sensitive to comment upon, as Mr Biden discovered.

 

[mheslep]

I don't think anyone is arguing for inaction,

156 no votes in the House, President dismissing ISIS as a JV team back in January, etc.
http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/113/house/2/507

 

[HossamCFD]

156 no votes in the House, President dismissing ISIS as a JV team back in January, etc.
http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/113/house/2/507

You're right. I sort of meant in this discussion.

 

[OmCheeto]

156 no votes in the House, President dismissing ISIS as a JV team back in January, etc.
http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/113/house/2/507

Is it just me, or is that the most myopically misleading headline of all time?[5]

House Vote 507 - Authorizes Aid to Syrian Rebels Against ISIS[1]​

That was an appropriations bill:

Length and Level of Funding – The CR extends funding for operations for all federal agencies, programs and services until December 11, 2014. [2]​

Seemed to have pretty good support in the senate [3]:

Joint Resolution Passed in the Senate by 27 Votes
YesDem 44Rep 33Ind 1
NoDem 9Rep 12Ind 1​

But just imagine the mercenary army you could buy if it was all for ISIS:

The bill provides funding at the current annual rate of $1.012 trillion. [2 again]
​

A trillion dollars, is a lot. I've looked into that, in the past.

And as for Obama's comment in January? Even Al Qaeda didn't acknowledge how insane they were until February:

February 3, 2014 - Al Qaeda renounces ties to ISIS after months of infighting between al-Nusra Front and ISIS. [4]​

References
[1] http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/113/house/2/507
[2] House Appropriations Committee
[3] http://politics.nytimes.com/congress (note: this link will probably not work properly in the near future. It looks very generic.)
[4] CNN
[5] I have, on occasion, been accused of speaking hyperbolically. My apologies.

 

[OmCheeto]

The relationship of the Turks to the Kurds is puzzling. To me, the role played by Turkey in the current crisis is incomprehensible. But maybe it's too sensitive to comment upon, as Mr Biden discovered.

Did you read the article I referenced in an earlier post?

Why Does The U.S. Like Iraq's Kurds But Not Syria's?​

It kind of explains the Kurd-Turkish relationship.

Hossam seemed to approve of its content. Not that I need his approval, mind you, but I understand that different cultures have customs that are almost incomprehensible to me, and getting an insight into why there are differences, can be very enlightening. Also, the locals, in most all areas, seem to be keen on local history, and what's going on. So I trust his insight, more than I would an armchair quarterback from the Americas.

ps. Did you know that the Iranian word for "chair" is pronounced "sandal-ee". That always struck me as funny. It means I'm sitting on my butt-shoe, as I type.

 

[Dotini]

Did you read the article I referenced in an earlier post?

Why Does The U.S. Like Iraq's Kurds But Not Syria's?​

Yes, thank you, OmCheeto, I have read that article and several others.
I am slowly figuring out that the Turks regard their internal and Syrian Kurds (and Assad) as greater threats than ISIS, parliamentary votes and US/NATO alliances notwithstanding. The current siege of Kobani is a good example of that.

 

[HossamCFD]

Did you read the article I referenced in an earlier post?

Why Does The U.S. Like Iraq's Kurds But Not Syria's?​

It kind of explains the Kurd-Turkish relationship.

Hossam seemed to approve of its content. Not that I need his approval, mind you, but I understand that different cultures have customs that are almost incomprehensible to me, and getting an insight into why there are differences, can be very enlightening. Also, the locals, in most all areas, seem to be keen on local history, and what's going on. So I trust his insight, more than I would an armchair quarterback from the Americas.

I have to say that I'm by no means an expert on Kurdish history/culture. My only insight comes from having kurdish friends from Iraq and Turkey (no idea about Syrian kurds). It seems to me that Turkey is recently growing more acceptable of the idea of a strong independent (Iraqi) Kurdistan to act as a buffer zone from the madness in northern Iraq. But I would be very surprised if the current mess changed the Turkish attitude towards their own Kurds. The article you posted explained the situation quite well.

 

[HossamCFD]

The current siege of Kobani is a good example of that.

It looks like Kobane might fall to ISIS hands soon
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29509828

 

[Dotini]

It looks like Kobane might fall to ISIS hands soon
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29509828

The article mentions US-led airstrikes on ISIS in the Kobane vicinity. But sadly, Turkey forbids the use of Incirlik, only 100 miles from the border, or indeed any base in Turkey, as a base of combat operations against ISIS.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/our-non-ally-in-ankara-1410561462

 

[Astronuc]

It looks like Kobane might fall to ISIS hands soon
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29509828

Apparently, ISIL has entered the eastern side of town.

Islamic State raises flag in eastern Kobani, Kurds say town has not fallen
http://news.yahoo.com/kurds-vow-fight-last-islamic-state-tightens-grip-090705412.html

I can't believe that Turkey or any other state would prefer ISIL to the Kurds. It is doubtful ISIL would simply stop at the Turkish border. Even if they did, they'd spend their time consolidating before moving into Turkey and elsewhere.

Certainly, there is a complicated history of which ethnic group and tribe: Turkic, Iranian, Arabic, Assyrian controls what territory, and whose culture is predominant, besides the fact that whoever controls the territory and government gets to take much of the oil wealth in that territory.

 

[Dotini]

http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-president-demands-apology-biden-091236171.html
Erdogan disputes the claim and demanded an apology. Joe Biden called to apologize. Biden needs to be diplomatic, i.e., be more cautious in what or how he makes statements, and sometimes he needs to refrain from making statements about sensitive matters.

According to a piece I just viewed on CNN Newsroom with Brooke Baldwin, Daily Beast foreign editor Chris Dickey reported everything Joe Biden said Thursday at the Harvard Kennedy School was true, although it was not the whole truth, his counterpoint rejoined.

Dickey later added that Erdogan has been pursuing a determined agenda against Assad from long before the current conflict set in.

Here is Dickey's relevant article from the Daily Beast.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...lling-truth-about-turkey-saudi-and-isis.html#

 

[OmCheeto]

I have to say that I'm by no means an expert on Kurdish history/culture. My only insight comes from having kurdish friends from Iraq and Turkey (no idea about Syrian kurds). It seems to me that Turkey is recently growing more acceptable of the idea of a strong independent (Iraqi) Kurdistan to act as a buffer zone from the madness in northern Iraq. But I would be very surprised if the current mess changed the Turkish attitude towards their own Kurds. The article you posted explained the situation quite well.

I would be interested to see the results of a poll here at PF: "How many Kurds have you met?"
My guess would be that 99% have never met a Kurd.
Which, whether you like it or not, makes you the de facto expert. On Kurds anyways.
I've met enough people, from enough conflicts, to know that everyone has an opinion, on what is, "the truth".
Which, I've also found, can change from one moment to the next.

Turkey bugs out of the anti-ISIS coalition
Sept 15, 2014

Turkey: NATO Has Plan to Defend the Country
Today, Oct 6, 2014​

psst! Turkey! NATO, is kind of a, um, coalition. But I understand. It's complicated. I will not hold this against you. I've seen much, much worse.

 

[Astronuc]

Teenage girls leaving families in US and Europe to join ISIL
https://screen.yahoo.com/news/teen-girls-leave-home-marry-125235091-cbs.html

Meanwhile - Woman who defected from the Islamic State says she was duped
'The worst thing I saw was a man getting his head hacked off in front of me,' 25-year-old former school teacher says
http://news.yahoo.com/isis-defector-speaks-khansa-a-brigade-islamic-state-134522135.html

 

[Astronuc]

According to a piece I just viewed on CNN Newsroom with Brooke Baldwin, Daily Beast foreign editor Chris Dickey reported everything Joe Biden said Thursday at the Harvard Kennedy School was true, although it was not the whole truth, his counterpoint rejoined.

Dickey later added that Erdogan has been pursuing a determined agenda against Assad from long before the current conflict set in.

Here is Dickey's relevant article from the Daily Beast.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...lling-truth-about-turkey-saudi-and-isis.html#

A somewhat different perspective:

WHAT ARE THE FACTS?
The facts about the flow of weapons, money and fighters into Syria are murky, though U.S. officials and regional experts largely agree that there are points of origin in countries including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

"There is no doubt that Turkey for a long time let fighters get into Syria," said Marina Ottaway, a senior scholar at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank. "They were determined to get rid of Assad so they were allowing people to go through."
. . . .
While President Barack Obama and other senior administration officials have talked broadly about the need to limit regional support for extremist groups in Syria, they've stopped short of calling out specific countries and governments by name.

http://news.yahoo.com/biden-critique-allies-creates-headache-us-203918140.html

 

[Astronuc]

Islamic State militants using some U.S.-made ammunition, report says
http://news.yahoo.com/isis-use-bullets-made-in-usa-140928571.html

Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria have been using bullets manufactured in the United States and 20 other countries, a new report from a weapons tracking research group says.

About 20 percent (323) of 1,730 cartridges recovered by Kurdish forces were made in the United States — and appear to have been taken from Iraq, according to a report published by the Conflict Armament Research group.

Of this happens in war when troops of one side overrun troops of the other, and uses the opponents' weapons against them.

 

[Astronuc]

Turkey: Syrian town about to fall to jihadists
http://news.yahoo.com/airstrikes-hit-near-embattled-syria-town-074922276.html

Too little, too late?!

 

[mheslep]

Turkey: Syrian town about to fall to jihadists
http://news.yahoo.com/airstrikes-hit-near-embattled-syria-town-074922276.html

Too little, too late?!

I think the current outcomes are a consequence the US top priority of no ground troops whatsoever rather than making the destruction of ISIS the top priority, with no ground troops a secondary consideration. Both former Secretaries of Defense Gates and now Panetta have indicated instances where political considerations trump national security issues in this administration. If this is the case, look for US action against ISIS to dribble away after the midterm election, independent of the military situation.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

"How many Kurds have you met?"

I traveled to Erbil two years ago. Lovely people. Unfortunately Turkey seems reluctant to flex it's military. My sense is that they are content with ISIS taking care of their "Kurd problem" for them.

 

[OmCheeto]

I traveled to Erbil two years ago. Lovely people. Unfortunately Turkey seems reluctant to flex it's military. My sense is that they are content with ISIS taking care of their "Kurd problem" for them.

Well, that makes 3, out of the 166,757 forum members. (Hypatia responded to my Facebook poll, in the affirmative)

Thank you for mentioning Erbil. I just googled, and they seem to be the only ones holding out.

The Enemy of My Enemy: Iran Arms Kurds in Fight Against ISIS
Aug. 27, 2014
For months, the Kurds have been lobbying the international community for better weapons to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and greater Syria (ISIS). The U.S., France, Germany, among others, have pledged military support, but that has come slowly.
Now, it seems Iran beat them to the punch. “We asked for weapons and Iran was the first country to provide us with weapons and ammunition,” said Kurdish President Massoud Barzani in a press conference.​

http://www.aawsat.net/2014/09/article55336679
Thursday, 18 Sep, 2014
Erbil, Asharq Al-Awsat—Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters currently pose no threat to the Kurdish capital Erbil, as Peshmerga forces continue to drive Islamist fighters out of Iraq’s semi-autonomous region, a Peshmerga official said.​

Erbil, Baghdad strengthen ties in face of Islamic State​

October 7th, 2014
This mutual threat has prompted the involved parties to re-evaluate their positions to ensure they can respond to this danger.

As for the Turks? We'll see that in the history books, 20 years from now. Or, maybe tomorrow.

Turkey Kurds: Kobane protests leave 19 dead
8 October 2014
While much of the unrest involved Kurdish protesters clashing with police, some of the violence was between Kurdish opponents of IS and radical Islamist Kurds who back the group.​

 

[edward]

I traveled to Erbil two years ago. Lovely people. Unfortunately Turkey seems reluctant to flex it's military. My sense is that they are content with ISIS taking care of their "Kurd problem" for them.

I think you nailed it Greg. There have been frequent problems between Turkey and their Kurds for years. Saddam used total blunt force trauma and a bit of gas on those in Iraq.

An interesting read.

Brief History of Kurdistan

Kurdish people can claim one of the longest ethnic histories in the middle east. Their lineage dates back to as early as 2400 BC, where they occupied the same lands as they do today. However many foreign invasions and immigrants shaped the face of the Kurdish people over time. Though Kurds had followed the teaching of Islam since an Arabic invasion in the 7th century, their culture remained distinctly different from all the others found around it. This early separatism would lay the groundwork for problems in outside parties ruling the area.

https://www.mtholyoke.edu/~jlshupe/history.html

 

[Astronuc]

https://news.yahoo.com/watching-kobane-battle-kurds-lose-faith-turkey-anti-144822274.html
Kurds may look for some arrangement with Assad.

http://www.ibtimes.com/fight-kobane-may-have-created-new-alliance-syria-kurds-assad-regime-1701363

Turkey deploys tanks to border as lawmakers to consider anti-IS action
https://news.yahoo.com/turkey-deploys-tanks-border-lawmakers-mull-anti-action-154214785.html

IS advance spells trouble for Turkey's Kurdish peace process
https://news.yahoo.com/advance-spells-trouble-turkeys-kurdish-peace-process-220653488.html