Japan Earthquake: Nuclear Plants at Fukushima Daiichi

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The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant is facing significant challenges following the earthquake, with reports indicating that reactor pressure has reached dangerous levels, potentially 2.1 times capacity. TEPCO has lost control of pressure at a second unit, raising concerns about safety and management accountability. The reactor is currently off but continues to produce decay heat, necessitating cooling to prevent a meltdown. There are conflicting reports about an explosion, with indications that it may have originated from a buildup of hydrogen around the containment vessel. The situation remains serious, and TEPCO plans to flood the containment vessel with seawater as a cooling measure.
  • #6,631
ihatelies said:
<..>
You have seen evidence, from a couple different views that a hole exists, and that beams are deformed in a manner which suggests a large round object passing through.

You have shown me your perception of the evidence. That's about all. However, what you perceive as a hole, I perceive differently. Specifically I do not see an overriding pattern of beams deformed in a manner which suggests that a large round object has been passing through. I can see what you mean, it can be perceived that way, but I do not share your perception.

I challenge you to take in turn the damages to those individual beams which collectively forms your perception of a hole, and reject the possibility that they might have become in shape, position and state, as they have become, not due to passage of a large object, but due to other shearing forces, or to strong heat.

I put the following major facts together:
1. the strong verticality of the #3 explosion
2. the existence of a round hole in the roof structure just about lined up with the reactor core and
3. the existence of some very hot debris on the Northwest corner of the wreckage - right where you see some of the debris from the explosion fall.
4. the soundtrack of the explosion, which has a strange "whooshing" sound at the end of the booms, which I think is the steel roof structure and possibly the cranes collapsing back down on the structure after they were lifted. and
5. The large cloud of radioactive material that existed after the #3 explosion that panicked the crew of the USS Ronald Reagan and caused them to redeploy elsewhere (first time I ever remember a US aircraft carrier battle group turning and steaming away from an important mission)
and 6. The PR wall of secrecy over #3 - the constant diversions to other issues - the cropping of pictures and the editing of videos, so that we can't see what's really happening.

Am I right? - let me tell you I hope I'm not - but I have to see another explanation for those facts that seems physically plausible.

Plonk.
 
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  • #6,632
triumph61 said:
There are TWO holes. The other one is in Turbine Building 3.

Both of these holes look pretty clean. Is it possible tepco put holes in all the turbine buildings to guard against the potential build up of hydrogen as they did on the roof of #2?
 
  • #6,633
unlurk said:
And does it really matter?

This reminds me of the "mickey mouse ears" discussion in March.

Off track.

Much ado about nothing.

Well there is no shortage of that. There are so many aspects to this tale, its not too surprising that people differ in what interests them. And as the knowledge barriers against doing your own analysis seem to many people lower for photo analysis than for many of the mechanical, chemical etc sciences involved, it can dominate the talk too much. Anyone can join in, even if the actual reality seems to be that photo analysis is quite the skill in itself. And I am as guilty of this as anyone.

Mind you, I have to say I can't agree with your recent post where you talked down the consequences and severity of the reactor problems in order to talk up the spent fuel pool nightmares. The pools are scary enough without needing to go so far as to claim that 'minor radiation leaks from 1,2 and three would not have caused the environmental and political political disaster we now see'. Come on, the contaminated water problems caused by the reactors are bad enough, let alone the other things they may or may not have caused. The story is still evolving, for some time the finger of blame did point more strongly at fuel pools but as we have seen more recently with unit 4 and doubts about cause of explosion there, the fuel pools may yet be relegated to a slightly more minor role.

Either way you are certainly right that spent fuel issues are one of the major things to be highlighted by Fukushima. I don't think they will feel the need to act literally NOW, in a mad dash, but we should hope that the riskiest aspects of these pools are dealt with at a reasonable pace rather than the issue being stalled or really badly fudged.
 
  • #6,634
triumph61 said:
There are TWO holes. The other one is in Turbine Building 3.
Sorry, there are THREE holes.
 

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  • #6,635
roliqq said:
Big clouds of steam (?) all over the place...
http://news.tbs.co.jp./newsi_sp/youtube_live/"

Looks like it's coming in from south or southeast of #4. Could be a nightime marine layer. Having lived on the coast all my life I have seen these come in at dusk and they can lay pretty low to the ground and blow for hours. Prevailing winds at night reverse from inland to offshore due to the temperature drop on land vis a vis the ocean.
 
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  • #6,636


unlurk said:
I believe if we pause to look at what has been learned here in the last two months we will see that we have uncovered a major flaw in the way nuclear power plants are run in Japan and the US.

We have badly underestimated the potential hazards emanating from spent fuel ponds.
[...]
This is a so far unheard wake up call for the US (and everyone else.)

We need to empty our SFPs now, not at some time in the future.

SFPs are our nation's Achilles tendon. They are a major source of danger by themselves - not to mention combined with reactor event(s).
[...]
But in my view, the cat is already out of the bag, we need to see our SFP crisis for what it is _ and deal with it. There should be no more sweeping it under the rug.

I fully agree that the spent fuel pools in that kind of reactor design are a major concern. (Don't necessarily agree on the conclusion that there would have been only minor problems in this particular case if not for the SFPs.) I was and still am amazed at how nuclear industry people and their followers always talk about containment and that nothing can happen, and that the reactors will even survive airplane crashes - and at the same time they literally keep the stuff that is so heavily "contained" in the reactor in a pool on the attic. I have been wondering all the time why they don't put concrete shield plugs also onto the top of the SFP? Apparently such shield plugs do exist (see post not too far above), but they are much lighter even than the dryer-separator shield plugs, i.e. probably not very effective at protecting the SFP, e.g. in the case of an airplane crash.

According to these guys - http://www.nei.org/newsandevents/aircraftcrashbreach/ - the whole reactor buildings even including BWR SFPs are more or less safe in case of a plane crash. IMHO that just cannot be true. Interestingly enough for the BWR SFP they just considered an impact from the side. Of course, on the side of the SFP concrete wall is rather thick and they also mention the steel liner. So, I may trust them that in that particular impact scenario, it might go well. But come on, they don't even mention vertical impact onto the SFP, which IMHO would be catastrophic judging from the building structures we see in Fukushima. Seriously, they must know about that, so they just say ok we just consider impact from the side, then there is no problem, let's not even think about other scenarios. This is almost like the story with the unround RPV in Japan. If they would have scrapped that RPV which took 2 years or so to build, the company would have gone bankrupt. Here, if they admitted that SFPs in those BWR designs are flawed from a safety point of view, they would have to shut down all those plants, in the worst case (which would not even solve the problem...). Anyway, it's a money thing, as always.
Oh, and please no one say the above scenario is impossible or unimaginable or unforeseen.

Sorry, for the ranting, but it had to get out.

As an aside: What is actually with the common fuel pool in Fukushima, in principle they should have had the same issues with cooling and hydrogen buildup there. It might be interesting to compare to the reactor SFPs. Probably this was discussed already?
 
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  • #6,637
Something is bad, reactor 3 appear to by on fire
15wmi34.jpg
 
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  • #6,638
unlurk said:
And does it really matter?

This reminds me of the "mickey mouse ears" discussion in March.

Off track.

Much ado about nothing.

FHM discussion is a red herring.

It's gone. It's a pile of steel somewhere - it doesn't matter.
 
  • #6,639
SteveElbows said:
The pools are scary enough without needing to go so far as to claim that 'minor radiation leaks from 1,2 and three would not have caused the environmental and political political disaster we now see'.


If you were to divide the consequences of this event in two, with the LOCA/meltdowns of 1,2 and 3 being one set, and the consequences of the SFP accidents in units 3 and four being a completely separate set of problems it will help you to understand my POV.

SteveElbows said:
contaminated water problems caused by the reactors are bad enough, let alone the other things they may or may not have caused.

You have a point here, it is true that I've discounted the water discharge problems in my analysis.

But I believe that if someone had a magic wand and was able to wipe out the effects of most of the airborne contamination in inland Japan, a lot of people could go home and a lot of other people (NYrs?) would rest a lot easier with the knowledge that there is a nuke plant upwind of them.
 
  • #6,640
elektrownik said:
Something is bad, reactor 3 appear to by on fire
15wmi34.jpg

really hard to tell from those foggy pictures in the night - but now it rather looks like no. 3 in trouble
 
  • #6,641
unlurk said:
And does it really matter?

This reminds me of the "mickey mouse ears" discussion in March.

Off track.

Much ado about nothing.

That seems a bit dismissive, but OK. It isn't really important, I suppose. I will go back to my midsummer's night dream and let you lead |Fred and me on a more productive track. :smile:
 
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  • #6,642
[PLAIN]http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/1728/42495638.jpg
 
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  • #6,643
elektrownik said:
Something is bad, reactor 3 appear to by on fire
15wmi34.jpg

The huge vapor layer has cleared up some and #3/4 are still smoking quite a bit. Another unschedule release?
 
  • #6,644
triumph61 said:
There are TWO holes. The other one is in Turbine Building 3.

triumph61 said:
Sorry, there are THREE holes.

Oh, there might be even more blowout panel holes that we don't see. My original statement was just that the hole shown in the picture the poster was referring to is definitely a hole in the unit 1 turbine building, because the same hole can be seen in another image of that set of photos from which it becomes obvious.

mrcurious said:
Both of these holes look pretty clean. Is it possible tepco put holes in all the turbine buildings to guard against the potential build up of hydrogen as they did on the roof of #2?

Umm, is it general, confirmed knowledge that they intentionally manually removed the blowout panels? With all those explosions going on, the shockwaves could have easily popped them out unintentionally, I suppose.
 
  • #6,645
elektrownik said:
Something is bad, reactor 3 appear to by on fire
15wmi34.jpg

This could be coming from either the Reactor or the fuel pond in my view.

But I lean towards the reactor.


I believe the reactor "belched" on Mar 14th, and lifted its shield plugs enough to vent flame, hydrogen and radioactive steam into the fueling trough initating the series of events we now see.

The reactor at #3 has been in a deteriorating state ever since. There were events a few mornings ago just before dawn.

Maybe the naysayers will claim that nothing is happening now if dawn breaks and the discharge is blown away and no longer visible.
 
  • #6,646
SteveElbows said:
Did any of the old flying FHM theories get ruled out in the past? eg that it made the hole in the turbine building roof. There seem to be so many possibilities for where it could of ended up, and I am far from certain TEPCO would tell us if they found it elsewhere on site at any point, it could just be called debris? And it could be in such bad shape, or buried under other rubble on site, that we may be able to see it on existing images but with no way to know it.

Indeed, there seems few avenues to restrict the search, little chance it will come in our view and be perceived for what it is. But let's say it happened to be found serendipitously in a fortunate shot by a visiting photographer, at the foot of the SE exhaust tower. Would it matter one iota?
 
  • #6,647
ihatelies said:
FHM discussion is a red herring.

It's gone. It's a pile of steel somewhere - it doesn't matter.

Except if its exit from the building caused the roof damage that you are obsessed with, in which case the FHM really should be of relevance to you.
 
  • #6,648
ihatelies said:
It's gone. It's a pile of steel somewhere - it doesn't matter.
Actually it does matter. If it was on the top of the reactor concrete plug, then the falling overhead crane could push it through the plug (-> possible containment fail). If it's a pile of steel somewhere else then the crane had most likely just fallen down -> big >>DONK<< but nothing really serious.
 
  • #6,649
SteveElbows said:
Which photos or video shows this area of the site and show this large thing?

Still waiting to see where this great hole that could only have been caused by a round object is. If I stare at numerous pictures for long enough I can see a number of features which my mind would like to turn into a very round hole but none of them actually are. So I want to know if you are referring to some other area of roof that I have managed to overlook.

If you can't see it from the photo I posted earlier, you're not going to.

The item that landed beyond the shared pool is clearly visible in the 2 flights over Fukushima video. I can't find the original anymore - here is one version on youtube - pause it between 2:17 and 2:32 and the thing is plainly visibile in the parking lot. Doesn't look like a crane to me, or a cap, I don't know what it is. Most of the pictures are deliberately cropped to avoid showing it, though so it must tell some kind of story.

It looks like a big piece of insulation, but it went 1500 feet up and back down and landed somewhat intact, so it's got to have some strength.

I assumed somebody here has already analyzed it.

If you follow the trajectory of the debris down from the explosion of 3 There were a few big chunks that came down. One landed in the NW corner of the 3 building. One landed in this location shown on this video and something landed out beyond Reactor #1. I couldn't identify anything landing in the turbine building, because the smoke was too dense.

Edit, sorry forgot the link:

 
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  • #6,650
TCups said:
I will let you lead |Fred and I on a more productive track. :smile:

LoL, I think you are great, I don't want to be dismissive of you (or Fred), just a few facets of your fetishes.


Does this mean that you will re-consider the possibility of a criticality in the #3 SFP?

Or at least put to bed forever the superheated water theory?
(That one is a bit over the top for me):smile:
 
  • #6,651
MadderDoc said:
Indeed, there seems few avenues to restrict the search, little chance it will come in our view and be perceived for what it is. But let's say it happened to be found serendipitously in a fortunate shot by a visiting photographer, at the foot of the SE exhaust tower. Would it matter one iota?

Probably not, although I could not completely rule out the idea that something about its state or location might happen to tell us something. I'm not pinning any hopes to this or suggesting that it is likely, just saying that I cannot fully rate the quality of new information about it without knowing precisely what that new info is.

There are several dozen things that I would be more interested in learning about, but I am stuck without such new info. Of the more detailed new bits of info of recent times, I wish I had heard more here about the strontium analysis from some soil and sea samples, but I'm unable to say anything useful about this stuff myself.
 
  • #6,652
mrcurious said:
The huge vapor layer has cleared up some and #3/4 are still smoking quite a bit. Another unschedule release?

I think there are pretty much constant "unscheduled releases" from #2 #3 and #4 (and probably #1 too, but not as much visual evidence of that).

Having observed the live cam for more than a week now, including during the time when the whole "#3 is on fire!11!" meme was going around the net, this doesn't look much different than several of the previous nights. As previously mentioned, the marine layer effect enhances the appearance of the steam releases. I think tomorrow during the day things will look the same as yesterday. Relevant note is that yesterday there were, to my eye, significant continuing steam/smoke releases from #2 and #3.
 
  • #6,653
unlurk said:
Why does it have to be "big and round"?

Why not as a shotgun blast emanating from the SFP with much of the contents of the SFP being the pellets. Maybe even the refuelling bridge too.

It has to be big and round because the metal is formed into a perfect arc. There has to be some kind of "die" to form metal into an arc shape, otherwise it bends randomly.

Ask anybody that bends metal for a living.
 
  • #6,654
elektrownik said:
Something is bad, reactor 3 appear to by on fire
15wmi34.jpg

The current temperature is quite cool at ~11-12 Deg C and the dew point is also the same (100% relative humidity) Thus any warm water vapour from the spent fuel pools is going to change into fog. Thus doesn't look like a major issue to me.
 
  • #6,655
triumph61 said:
Sorry, there are THREE holes.
We have some overproduction of holes :eek:

The question is that were they removed later or they were blown off.
One more point to consider: on the first thermal images the top of the turbine buildings were warm - why?

Actually, do we have any fresh thermal images? The last ones I've seen are pretty old.
 
  • #6,656
Is the steam in #3 comming from within the RPV or is it caused by leaks in the wall between SFP and drywell? The reactor should be still quite hot on the outside and probably just boils off leaking water from the SFP!?


pdObq said:
Alright now, so it really looks like it is leaning towards the east. The new images are great, but as the poster stated they are from late April. Unit 4 probably was not leaning back then. I guess it hard to come up with an optical illusion or camera related issue explanation with those new images from the live feed.

These pictures are taken from far away with TV-cameras. You can definitely say a few things when looking at these pictures; such as: the buildings are still there. The buildings are damaged.
But you're unable to tell if they're leaning. That's like having measurements that are off several magnitudes from the result of a calculation based on these measurements.

It's hard to tell if a building is leaning just by pictures without any reference. And what you're looking at are stitched pictures from a tv-cam, miles away.
 
  • #6,657
RealWing said:
Thus doesn't look like a major issue to me.

I do trust your judgement and I do hope you are right.


But this could be another "belch" from the deep.


Doncha think?
 
  • #6,658
StrangeBeauty said:
Having observed the live cam for more than a week now, including during the time when the whole "#3 is on fire!11!" meme was going around the net, this doesn't look much different than previous nights. As previously mentioned, the marine layer effect enhances the appearance of the steam releases. I think tomorrow during the day things will look the same as yesterday. Relevant note is that yesterday there were, to my eye, significant continuing steam/smoke releases from #2 and #3.

Yes, please, let's not get into that again. If there is white smoke: steam = normal. Even grey/black smoke doesn't necessarily mean fire, could be concrete dust. If one can see flames, ok then we should be concerned, but only then.
 
  • #6,659


unlurk said:
We need to empty our SFPs now, not at some time in the future.
To keep them as clean as possible - OK. But it's dangerous to move fresh spent fuel.
 
  • #6,660
It has to be partly a marine layer, you can see it entering from the right hand of the screen beyond #4.
 

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