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clancy688 said:And another question (for everybody): What's the data TEPCO used for that sheet, and where did it come from? It doesn't seem to be an estimate, since there are bumps in those graphs, indicating they are build on accurate data.
PietKuip said:These are calculations. The timing is made to fit the measured temperatures at different places.
Oh, ok that's why it looks just like one of those severe accident calculations... Not that I have seen vary many (rather very few), but the LOCA meltdown timescale on all of them was hours AFAIK, not months, so it probably would make sense that the real "action" there already happened a long time ago.
Somewhat different topic: Regarding sudden overpressure from the RPV escaping through the main steamlines, I just read about those main steamline isolation valves (MSIV) which apparently take ~10s to close. With the EDGs and DC power those very likely have been closed immediately at the scram. But how much pressure do these things take before they fail?
Also, would it be possible that the core spray lines ruptured during the earthquake or something similar to that (i.e. replace core spray with feedwater or earthquake with hydrogen explosion), with the outcome that all that water is not actually reaching the RPV, but just dripping into the drywell or elsewhere into the building? If it only reached the outside of the RPV it probably would still generate lots of steam. One could probably tell by how radioactive the water in the basement is, whether it went through the core.
