mattm2 said:
AtomicWombat: Concerning your link at post number 2589 "Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment": In my non-scientific opinion: If even one percent of this long article is the truth: It is overwhelmingly unbelievable and unbelievably overwhelming.
Hi mattm2,
I'm not in a position to to say whether it's accurate or not. But I can comment on whether it is scientifially reasonable and whether it would be immediately obvious without close study.
It is well known in epidemiological circles that the life expectancy in Russia, the Ukraine and Belarus declined from the late 1980s before starting to recover around 2000. This may be due to the collapse of the former Soviet Union.
The reports methodology is as follows (p207),
"An estimate of the additional mortality from Chernobyl is possible on the basis of a comparison of mortality rates in highly contaminated territories and in less contaminated ones—so called “clean” areas." This is a scientifically sound approach explained in more detail in the report.
As to the magnitude of the deaths. From p211,
"[This] study reveals that some 4% of all deaths from 1990 to 2004 in the contaminated territories of Ukraine and Russia were caused by the Chernobyl catastrophe."
Smoking kills far more people in Russia alone.
"Some 250 000 men are estimated to have died in Russia in 1995 due to tobacco use, three out of four of them (190 000) at ages 35–69 years." See:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1759630/pdf/v007p00003.pdf") For 150 million people that is about 2,250,000 deaths per year.
Assume (for arguments sake) that 4% of these deaths were due to Chernobyl. 4% of 2,250,000 is 90,000. So if 190,000 young men are dropping dead from smoking causes alone (most from cardio-vascular disease), it would hardly be obvious that 90,000 deaths in all age groups of a total of 2.25 million deaths were ultimately linked to Chernobyl.
I don't think the report can be immediately dismissed, but nor can the much lower IAEA estimate. The issue can't be resolved on this forum, so I'm happy to leave it at that.