WarPhalange said:
It's more likely that someone has had an extra-marital affair than that they are a pedophile.
So exactly how likely does something have to be in order to arouse your suspicion? Would it be correct to follow "John McCain has never used illegal drugs" with "that we know of?" I chose this example because most statistics put the rate of illegal drug use beyond the rates of affairs, although you can find statistics that disagree with this.
More directly, I think that applying frequentist logic to human behavior is a flawed way to derive conclusions. Not only do humans have free will, which allows them to break frequentist patterns a priori, but also in practice the frequentist misapply there own system by comparing two situations that are essentially different. You might counter this by saying that frequentist reasoning works well "in practice", but I would argue that this is not a scientific claim because it cannot be falsified.
You can say "McCain has never had an affair that we know of."
You can say it, but then you would be contradicting public facts e.g. McCain's biography that was linked to by Gokul above:
http://www.azcentral.com/news/specials/mccain/articles/0301mccainbio-chapter5.html
"McCain has admitted to having extramarital affairs. "
McCain wrote: "But my marriage's collapse was attributable to my own selfishness and immaturity more than it was to Vietnam, and I cannot escape blame by pointing a finger at the war. The blame was entirely mine."
Ex-wife Carol wrote: "The breakup of our marriage was not caused by my accident or Vietnam or any of those things. I don't know that it might not have happened if John had never been gone. I attribute it more to John turning 40 and wanting to be 25 again than I do to anything else."
"McCain was generous with Carol, the mother of their daughter Sidney and two sons, whom McCain had adopted."
but saying anything about pedophilia is a bit far.
Again, what standard are you applying? At what point does a societal pathology become statistically large enough for you to suspect all people of possessing it without any direct evidence?