Overbooked flight probability problem

In summary, the conversation discusses the practice of airlines overbooking flights and a specific scenario where a manager is selling 40 tickets on a flight with a capacity of 35. The estimated probability of a passenger not showing up is 0.2. The conversation also includes a calculation of the expected number of passengers who must be compensated and the maximum cost per passenger that would make overbooking to 40 a better option than selling 35 tickets.
  • #1
bluebear19
37
0
Airlines often overbook flights. You are a manager selling 40 tickets on a flight with a capacity of 35. You estimate the probability of a given passenger NOT showing up is 0.2.

I already calculated some parts of the problem:
1) how many passengers do you expect to show up = (.8)(40) = 32
2) what is the probability that more than 35 will show up = .0759

Problem:
Suppose a ticket sells for $300. What is the maximum cost per passenger who must be "bumped" (compensation paid to ticketed passenger who can't take the overbooked plane) such it is worth (expected value) to sell 40 tickets versus 35. (For simplicity assume that you still get your $300 from anyone who purchased a ticket and doesn't show up)

Thank you in advance!
 
Physics news on Phys.org
  • #2
Let P(n) be the probability that exactly n people show up. The expected number of people you must compensate is
N = P(36) + 2P(37) + 3P(38) + 4P(39) + 5P(40)

For overbooking to 40 to be better than selling 35, NC < $300 * 5, where C is the total amount you must compensate passengers who are bumped.
 

1. What is the overbooking flight probability problem?

The overbooking flight probability problem refers to the practice of airlines selling more seats on a flight than the actual number of available seats. This is done to compensate for the possibility of some passengers not showing up for their flight. However, in cases where all passengers do show up, the airline may end up with more passengers than seats, causing an overbooked flight situation.

2. How do airlines determine the number of overbooked seats?

Airlines use mathematical models and historical data to determine the likelihood of passengers not showing up for their flight. This allows them to calculate the optimal number of overbooked seats to sell in order to minimize losses from empty seats while also avoiding overbooking situations.

3. What happens if a flight is overbooked?

If a flight is overbooked and all passengers show up, the airline will typically offer compensation, such as vouchers or a free flight, to passengers who volunteer to give up their seats. If not enough volunteers are found, the airline may deny boarding to some passengers and rebook them on a later flight.

4. How can overbooking flights affect passengers?

Overbooking flights can lead to inconvenience and frustration for passengers who may have to give up their seats or be rebooked on a later flight. It can also result in missed connections or delays for those affected by the overbooking situation.

5. Is overbooking flights a common practice?

Yes, overbooking flights is a common practice among airlines as it allows them to maximize their profits and minimize losses from empty seats. However, airlines are also required to follow regulations and compensate passengers in case of overbooking situations.

Similar threads

  • Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
Replies
6
Views
2K
Replies
5
Views
1K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
1
Views
2K
Replies
3
Views
2K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
10
Views
16K
  • Precalculus Mathematics Homework Help
Replies
4
Views
4K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
5
Views
10K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
1
Views
8K
  • Precalculus Mathematics Homework Help
Replies
3
Views
5K
  • Calculus and Beyond Homework Help
Replies
1
Views
4K
Back
Top