News Paris shooting and explosion kills at least 140

[Evo]

ISIS didn't orchestrate the attack in Paris, if fighters leave the Caliphate once they're there, they're seen as weak and cowards by ISIS. That's why so many propaganda videos of passport burning exists. Further, ISIS generally frowns upon suicide attacks, as it doesn't fit into their interpretation of Islam.

If ISIS actually had any skin in the Paris attacks, it was likely lone wolf would-be immigrates to Syria that had their passports seized.

Most of those countries Muslims are enemies of the Islamic state, and have been excommunicated from the faith by Baghdadi- therefore they're apostles that must be killed.

ISIS claimed responsibility, you don't believe them?

 

[Student100]

ISIS claimed responsibility, you don't believe them?

Not fully, I don't see how it fits into their ideology. They seem to claim responsibility for many attacks that are latter shown to be another group/homegrown.

It seems like they're just wanting to capitalize on the publicity, not actually planning these attacks.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

it was likely lone wolf would-be immigrates to Syria

It was three separate coordinated group attacks. I wouldn't call that lone wolf.

 

[Student100]

It was three separate coordinated group attacks. I wouldn't call that lone wolf.

Yeah, the coordination seems atypical for homegrown attacks. It also seems atypical for ISIS though, there was some mumbling that it might have been Al Qaeda , or an Al Qaeda affiliate. It just seems counter to the ISIS goal of obtaining territory, holding/developing that territory and expanding it. ISIS claimed responsibility for the Texas shootings, Oregon college shooting, and basically every other attack on westerns without any real evidence they had planned or orchestrated the attacks. I don't take their claims of responsibility seriously.

I guess they could be behind the attack and had coordinated the entire thing for months, it just seems outside of their operating norm.

 

[Nugatory]

"Random murder" is a straw man relevant to the events at hand, is not what occurred in Paris. It was a planned and orchestrated mass attack, and if executed by ISIS as seems obvious, it was what the perpetrators would say was in the defense of Islam. By calling the event other than what it was, ironically you serve up a case in point for the Spectator author which you would call a straw man.

You are correct about my choice of words, and I apologize. I should have called it deliberate and premeditated murder of random victims in Paris - there was nothing random or unintended in the attackers' deliberate choice to murder innocent people. The only thing that was random was which innocent people died, and I'm not hearing anyone except for the criminals themselves questioning whether that makes for an appalling crime.

However, I do disagree with you on two other points.
First, although as far as I know you are right that there has never never been a poll specifically asking about "random murder", several polls were done after the 7/7/2005 attacks in London and Madrid that failed to find any substantial support among Muslims for these attacks. What's substantial? I already mentioned the likelihood that a randomly selected American has committed a violent crime leading to incarceration, and that's around one in five hundred. So we're generally willing to accept levels of one in five hundred or lower as evidence of individual depravity rather than an indictment of the whole community.

Second, the question in the poll data that you cite is just begging to be misinterpreted. "Can be justified..." isn't asking whether the responder believes that a specific action is right or wrong, it's asking whether the responder is willing to commit to saying that no similar action could ever be right. That's a classic example of a bad poll question, one in which the answer will swing from poll to poll (compare American attitudes towards bombing cities in 1944 and 1967) according to whatever is in the air at the moment... and it shows in the data. The table suggests that the Palestinian territories have become more moderate over the years, Egyptians suddenly changed their attitudes in 2007 and have spent the next five years undoing that change, Jordan has become moderate and Tunisia was never anything else, Bangladesh is a jihadi hotbed but for a whole decade no one noticed, Pakistan at 3% is a force for moderation, and something really weird happened in Israel's Muslim minority after 2011... None of this is especially plausible.

But all of this is somewhat beside the point. There are somewhere north of 1.5 billion Muslims in the world. If there's a solution, they're going to be part of it.

 

[HossamCFD]

Further, ISIS generally frowns upon suicide attacks, as it doesn't fit into their interpretation of Islam.

I'm sceptical as to how much ISIS was involved but I just wanted to point out that this bit is inaccurate. ISIS loves suicide attacks and pretty much relies on them. If you saw the Vice documentary that Greg posted some time ago they were boasting they have a massive list of volunteers for suicide missions. It was also reported that suicide attacks played an important role in the invasion of Ramadi. It's suicide that's not allowed in their interpretation of Islam, not suicide bombing.

 

[Nugatory]

A couple are, like Syria, Libya, Sudan. Most such countries are not broken, not if broken means chaos and civil war. Turkey, Iran, Morocco, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Malaysia, UAE, Indonesia, Bangladesh... . All are majority Muslim, overwhelmingly so, and have functioning if non-pluralistic governments and a degree of civil order.

If we weight it by population, mhelsep's point becomes even stronger. The population of Syria, Sudan, Libya, West Bank and Gaza, Iraq (which maybe does belong in the list of broken countries), and Afghanistan (can't argue for keeping it out of the list of broken countries if we're including Iraq) together is about 6% of the world's Muslim population. Chances are, the important stuff is happening in the other 94%.

 

[WWGD]

"Random murder" is a straw man relevant to the events at hand, is not what occurred in Paris. It was a planned and orchestrated mass attack, and if executed by ISIS as seems obvious, it was what the perpetrators would say was in the defense of Islam. By calling the event other than what it was, ironically you serve up a case in point for the Spectator author which you would call a straw man.Nobody polls for approval of "random murder", but for actions like suicide bombing and capital punishment for apostates, surveys have long been common knowledge.

Muslim Views on Suicide Bombing.

There are a few strange things , difficult to understand here: some values have these great jumps, and then there seems to be no correlation between high belief and action in many cases. On top of the fact that "defending Islam against its enemies" may mean widely different things to people. Is someone drawing an offensive cartoon of the prophet or are they setting fires in Mecca to kill pilgrims, are they destroying the Dome on the Rock, etc.
How many Bangladeshis have engaged in attacks, given that 47% of them believe action is sometimes justified? Same for Pakistanis between 2002 and 2006. Nigeria goes from 34% to 8% two years after, then jumps up to 19%. Israel jumps from 7% to 20% two years after, then down to 7%, then up to 16% ?

 

[WWGD]

A couple are, like Syria, Libya, Sudan. Most such countries are not broken, not if broken means chaos and civil war. Turkey, Iran, Morocco, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Malaysia, UAE, Indonesia, Bangladesh... . All are majority Muslim, overwhelmingly so, and have functioning if non-pluralistic governments and a degree of civil order.

O.K, I would then add countries with repressive regimes and unemployment rates consistently above 30% or so, where the majority barely gets by.

 

[HossamCFD]

O.K, I would then add countries with repressive regimes and unemployment rates consistently above 30% or so, where the majority barely gets by.

I agree that political and economical grievances do play an important role, but let's not forget that Saudi, a major exporter of Jihadis to ISIS that's second only to Tunisia, isn't really suffering from economical problems. The regime is repressive of course but mostly towards liberal bloggers like Raif Badawy. Those fighters left to join the ultimate repressive regime on earth. Let's also not forget the few thousands who left from western Europe, mostly France, UK, and Germany. These didn't live under repressive governments and while some of them might have suffered from unemployment, it doesn't seem that economical difficulties are enough of a reason to justify this huge numbers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...y-foreign-fighters-are-fighting-for-Isil.html

Can we not agree that, along with geo-political and economical grievances, religion does also play a role in motivating this ideology?

 

[Nugatory]

Can we not agree that, along with geo-political and economical grievances, religion does also play a role in motivating this ideology?

I do not think that you will find anyone within several standard deviations of the mainstream (not the American mainstream, the world!) who would not agree. "Along with geo-political and economical grievances, religion does also play a role..." is a great improvement over some of the simplistic and monocausal arguments that are circulating.

 

[Monsterboy]

Putin's done almost nothing to impede ISIS.

Perhaps, but it's only a matter of time because ISIS is major threat to Assad. I think Russia conducted air strikes on US trained rebels in Syria because they think the rebels are a threat to Assad and not just to the ISIS.

I doubt Putin counts the Global War on Terror as a major threat to his country. So, if he should gain influence over ISIS, even if by no more than leaving it alone to multiply, then it may well become his instrument to manipulate against the West.

ISIS is a bigger threat to Assad than NATO is currently, in order to secure Assad's regime Russia will have to take action against ISIS even if Putin is not worried about terror threats to Russia , "leaving it alone to multiply " will not be an option.

Currently the West counts terror as the biggest threat. As posts here indicate, certainly terror groups are counted as a bigger threat than ME dictators and their pals.

Yes , ME dictators and their pals are not threatening to terrorize our cities, US will have to risk a direct conflict with Russia in Syria if it wants to kick Assad out now ,which is in my opinion an unnecessary risk which solves nothing and divert attention from the war against ISIS ,which is IMO more important right now.

 

[Student100]

I'm sceptical as to how much ISIS was involved but I just wanted to point out that this bit is inaccurate. ISIS loves suicide attacks and pretty much relies on them. If you saw the Vice documentary that Greg posted some time ago they were boasting they have a massive list of volunteers for suicide missions. It was also reported that suicide attacks played an important role in the invasion of Ramadi. It's suicide that's not allowed in their interpretation of Islam, not suicide bombing.

Thanks, I must have misinterpreted something I read somewhere.

 

[DennisN]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/15/us-france-shooting-military-idUSKCN0T31HY20151115 (Reuters, Nov 14)

France, which has described the Paris assault as an act of war, can quickly ramp up its contribution to the air campaign against Islamic State targets.
Even before the Paris attacks, France had announced that its sole aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, would be deployed to the Middle East, arriving on November 18.
"We’re only a matter of days before the French carrier departs and heads to the Persian Gulf to do strikes," said former FBI official Martin Reardon, now with The Soufan Group consultancy. "I think France will do more."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/15/us-france-shooting-idUSKCN0T22IU20151115 (Reuters, today, Nov 15)

"We are at war. We have been hit by an act of war, organized methodically by a terrorist, jihadist army," Prime Minister Manuel Valls told TF1 television on Saturday night.

"Because we are at war we will take exceptional measures. We will act and we will hit them. We will hit this enemy to destroy them, obviously in France and Europe ... but also in Syria and Iraq," he said. "We will win."

EDIT: France on alert after Islamic state threatens more attacks (video clip, 14 Nov, incl. quotations from the IS homepage)

 

[Astronuc]

http://news.yahoo.com/paris-attacked-police-hunt-accomplices-065411619.html#

Molins said one was identified from fingerprints as a French-born man with a criminal record.

In addition, a Syrian passport found near the body of another attacker was linked to a man who entered the European Union through a Greek island last month.

Officials in Greece said the passport's owner entered in October through Leros, . . . .

The identities and backgrounds of most of the attackers still need to be determined. Mentioned below, it appears several identities are now known.

http://news.yahoo.com/paris-attacks-dont-move-well-kill-201441665.html

Paris (AFP) - Loic Wiels could feel the bodies hitting the floor around him at a Paris music hall where a team of assailants opened fire Friday in one of France's deadliest terror attacks.

https://www.yahoo.com/katiecouric/yahoo-news-special-report-paris-attack-updates-161018505.html
Three teams attacked Bataclan Concert Hall, Stade de France, and several restaurants near Bataclan. It appears 4 attackers were in the Bataclan, 2 at the State de France, leaving 2 attacking restaurants. The attack was apparently in planning for 3 or 4 months. Two attackers were from France, and several from Belgium.

One attacker had a ticket to the soccer game at Stade de France. A security guard notice the explosive vest and pushed the attacker back. The attacker then detonated his vest.

Video in the alley beside Bataclan - http://news.yahoo.com/bataclan-alley-paris-attack-video-153508390.html

There is a concern about the return of ISIS foreign fighters from Western states to US and EU,.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/flash-topics/flash-topic-folder/paris-attack-isis-threat-worldwide

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/re...3-foreign-fighters-lister/en-fighters-web.pdf

 

[StevieTNZ]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...-means-nz-less-vulnerable-to-attack--john-key

He did not believe the Paris attacks were due to a failure of intelligence, but instead the difficulty of monitoring all communication between terrorists.

"I wonder whether the right characterisation isn't that they failed but that the terrorists are becoming more sophisticated and quite a lot of the communications they have are what, in the business, we would call dark.

"In other words, we can't actually monitor them."

Quite concerning.

 

[Drakkith]

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