Poisson distribution on a simulated (SSA) data set

AI Thread Summary
To fit a histogram with a Poisson distribution based on a stochastic simulation data set, the mean of the sample can be used to estimate the λ parameter, which defines the Poisson distribution. The discussion raises the question of whether fitting a distribution is appropriate for time-series data, but the focus remains on achieving the requested Poisson fit. There is an emphasis on using propensities to make predictions or approximations over longer time periods. The estimated λ value from the sample is suggested to be around 8. This approach aims to align the simulated data with the characteristics of a Poisson distribution.
tolove
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I've been asked to fit the histogram with a Poisson distribution as part of a mostly independent learning thing. The data was produced through a stochastic simulation.

Can someone get me started on how I would go about finding the expected distribution?

If you need additional information, or if you would like to see the code (python), please ask.

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Thanks for your time!
 
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If your data is coming from time-series observations, then perhaps a more important question is *should* you be fitting the data directly to a distribution?
 
bpet said:
If your data is coming from time-series observations, then perhaps a more important question is *should* you be fitting the data directly to a distribution?

That's what I'm thinking, but I was specifically asked to set a Poisson distribution to this. So there must be a way that the propensities can be used to find a prediction. Or at least a close approximation for long times.

I don't know how to go about this, though.
 
tolove said:
That's what I'm thinking, but I was specifically asked to set a Poisson distribution to this. So there must be a way that the propensities can be used to find a prediction. Or at least a close approximation for long times.

I don't know how to go about this, though.

The mean of the sample approximates the λ parameter of the Poisson distribution. That defines the Poisson distribution. My guess is λ ~ 8.
 
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