Probability: Average Size of Group A when Choosing Item from 1 to n

In summary, the problem at hand is to find the average size of a group containing a randomly chosen item from a set of n items, where the group is divided into two groups of size X and n-X. It is stated that all values of X and all group sizes are equally likely. One attempt at a solution suggested that the average size of group A would simply be n/2, but this was found to be incorrect when considering the likelihood of the item being in the larger group. The solution presented involves considering the first n-1 samples and using a formula to calculate the average size, which has been verified. However, the person posing the problem is seeking a more elegant solution.
  • #1
Gekko
71
0

Homework Statement



We choose two groups where group A can be of size X where X ranges from 1 to n-1. Group B is the remaining (n-X).
All values of X are equally likely and all group sizes are equally likely

If we choose one item from 1 to n where all choices are equally likely, what is the average size of the group containing the item?

The Attempt at a Solution



Originally I tried the following:

Average size of group A is simply n/2 as it is uniformly distributed and therefore, since the item can be in either group, the size must also be n/2

However, given that the item is more likely to be in the larger of the two groups, we must skew the average to greater than n/2 and indeed, when I run an Excel simulation, that proves correct. Any thoughts on this?
 
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  • #2
The solution can be obtained form considering the first 1 to n-1 samples which must all be equally likely to be chosen

This yields

1/n(n-1) * [sum from 1 to (n-1) (x^2 + (n-x)^2)]

and has been verified. Can be simplified further. There must be another way to do this though? A more elegant method perhaps?
 

Related to Probability: Average Size of Group A when Choosing Item from 1 to n

1. What is the formula for calculating the average size of Group A when choosing an item from 1 to n?

The formula for calculating the average size of Group A is (n+1)/2, where n is the total number of items to choose from.

2. How does the number of items affect the average size of Group A?

The number of items, or n, directly affects the average size of Group A. The larger the value of n, the larger the average size of Group A will be.

3. Is the average size of Group A affected by the order in which items are chosen?

No, the average size of Group A is not affected by the order in which items are chosen. As long as the total number of items remains the same, the average size of Group A will also remain the same.

4. Can the average size of Group A be a decimal or a fraction?

Yes, the average size of Group A can be a decimal or a fraction. This is because the formula for calculating it, (n+1)/2, can result in a non-integer value.

5. How can probability be used to determine the average size of Group A?

The average size of Group A can be determined using probability by considering the likelihood of choosing each item. For example, if there are 10 items to choose from, each item has a probability of 1/10 of being chosen. By multiplying this probability by the total number of items, 10, we get the expected value or average size of Group A, which is 1.

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