Probability: Average Size of Group A when Choosing Item from 1 to n

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SUMMARY

The average size of group A, when selecting an item from a set of size n, is not simply n/2 due to the skewing effect of group sizes. The discussion reveals that the average must be adjusted to account for the likelihood of the item being in the larger group. A mathematical expression for the average size is derived as 1/n(n-1) * [sum from 1 to (n-1) (x^2 + (n-x)^2)], which has been verified through simulation in Excel. Participants are encouraged to seek a more elegant solution to this problem.

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Homework Statement



We choose two groups where group A can be of size X where X ranges from 1 to n-1. Group B is the remaining (n-X).
All values of X are equally likely and all group sizes are equally likely

If we choose one item from 1 to n where all choices are equally likely, what is the average size of the group containing the item?

The Attempt at a Solution



Originally I tried the following:

Average size of group A is simply n/2 as it is uniformly distributed and therefore, since the item can be in either group, the size must also be n/2

However, given that the item is more likely to be in the larger of the two groups, we must skew the average to greater than n/2 and indeed, when I run an Excel simulation, that proves correct. Any thoughts on this?
 
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The solution can be obtained form considering the first 1 to n-1 samples which must all be equally likely to be chosen

This yields

1/n(n-1) * [sum from 1 to (n-1) (x^2 + (n-x)^2)]

and has been verified. Can be simplified further. There must be another way to do this though? A more elegant method perhaps?
 

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