Probability - proving independence/dependence

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The discussion centers on determining whether defects D1 and D2 in films are independent events. The calculations show that P(D1 ∩ D2) does not equal P(D1) * P(D2), indicating dependence. The correct application of the Addition Rule of probability is emphasized, leading to the conclusion that the events are indeed dependent. A tree diagram is referenced to illustrate the relationship between the two defects. Ultimately, the analysis confirms that defects D1 and D2 are not independent.
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Homework Statement



A film is defective either when the level of sensitivity is wrong (defect D1) or when the colours are faulty (defect D2). 2% of all films made have at least one of these two defects. 1% of all films have defect D1 and 0.2% of all films have both defect D1 and D2.

Are the events "to have defect D1" and "to have defect D2" independent?

The Attempt at a Solution



P(D1) = 0.01
P(D1 ∩ D2) = 0.002
P(D1 ∪ D2) = 0.02

If independent, then: P(D1 ∪ D2) = P(D1) + P(D2) = 0.02

hence P(D2) = 0.02 - P(D1) = 0.02 - 0.01 = 0.01

P(D1 ∩ D2) = 0.01 x 0.01 = 0.0001 which is not 0.002

Is this correct? How do I prove that they are DEPENDENT, as all i have done is rejected their independency!

Thank you very much!
 
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Go back to your textbook and read the definitions of "dependent" and "independent" events!
 
They're independent. It's just a tree with two branches for D1 and two branches each for D2.
 
Again, look at the definition of independence - and, since you used it, look at the correct form for the Addition Rule of probability.
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"They're independent. It's just a tree with two branches for D1 and two branches each for D2."
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Makes no sense here.
 
statdad said:
Again, look at the definition of independence - and, since you used it, look at the correct form for the Addition Rule of probability.
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"They're independent. It's just a tree with two branches for D1 and two branches each for D2."
**************************
Makes no sense here.

Why not?

[PLAIN]http://dl.dropbox.com/u/704818/Tree.png
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Pr(D1 ∪ D2) = P(D1) + P(D2) - P(D1 ∩ D2)
0.02 = 0.01 + P(D2) - 0.0002
P(D2) = 0.0102

P(D1 ∩ D2) = 0.0002 != 0.01 * 0.0102 -> D1 and D2 are dependent.

PD1(D2) = P(D2)/P(D1) = P(D1 ∩ D2)/P(D1) = 0.0002/0.01 = 0.02
 
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