News Progress in Afghanistan: What's Next After 6 Years of War?

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The discussion highlights the complexities of the situation in Afghanistan, emphasizing the need for a coherent strategic plan to secure democracy and stability. Significant progress is noted, including economic growth, improved healthcare access, and increased educational enrollment. However, challenges persist, particularly regarding the Taliban's influence and the geopolitical dynamics involving NATO and neighboring countries. The historical context of U.S. involvement, including past support for the mujahedin, is examined, raising questions about the long-term consequences of such actions. Overall, while there are signs of progress, the path to lasting success in Afghanistan remains uncertain.
  • #91
In Tactical Shift, Troops Will Stay and Hold Ground in Afghanistan
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/03/world/asia/03afghan.html

. . . “This is not simply to remove Taliban influence, but to replace that influence with security operations and reconstruction,” the officer said. “It is not simply about killing the enemy, but about protecting the population and improving their lives, which will help prohibit the return of insurgent elements.”
. . . .
Finally the Surge comes to Afghanistan, but something like this should have been done 20 years ago - then probably by the UN, or some multi-national force.

Meanwhile -

U.S. Faces Resentment in Afghan Region
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/03/world/asia/03helmand.html
Villagers in some districts have taken up arms against foreign troops to protect their homes or in anger after losing relatives in airstrikes, several community representatives interviewed said. Others have been moved to join the insurgents out of poverty or simply because the Taliban’s influence is so pervasive here.

On Thursday morning, 4,000 American Marines began a major offensive to try to take back the region from the strongest Taliban insurgency in the country. The Marines are part of a larger deployment of additional troops being ordered by the new American commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, to concentrate not just on killing Taliban fighters but on protecting the population.
. . . .
I hope McChrystal's strategy is successful.
 
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  • #92
In Tactical Shift, Troops Will Stay and Hold Ground in Afghanistan

For the members of Taliban , they will not fight the American Troops because Taliban doesn't have army. What will the members of Taliban do ?
Most of them will return to stay with their families , after some time they will start attack the American Troops ( attack and retreat ) . How many years will the American Troops stay in Afghanistan !?
For Russia , china , North Korea and Iran , these countries want American Troops to stay in Afghanistan forever !
The Troops will not solve the problem of Afghanistan.
 
  • #93
Code:
Russia said Friday it will allow the United States to ship weapons across its territory to Afghanistan

[PLAIN]http://buzz.yahoo.com
[/PLAIN]

The question is why does Russia want to help America!?
 
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  • #94
mohd_adam said:
Code:
Russia said Friday it will allow the United States to ship weapons across its territory to Afghanistan

[PLAIN]http://buzz.yahoo.com
[/PLAIN]

The question is why does Russia want to help America!?
Russia wants to help itself. Russia does not want a radical Islamic state on its border.
 
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  • #95
There are a number of NGOs operating in Afghanistan.

Here is one such group - http://www.arghand.org/

Arghand was founded in May 2005, by Sarah Chayes, a former National Public Radio reporter who stayed behind in Afghanistan to help rebuild the war-torn country. She and a handful of loyal and daring Kandaharis decided to explore a notion for how to add value to celebrated local fruit crops, long the fame of the region. Given the explosion in international demand for fine natural skin-care products, and the abundance of their raw materials in the orchards of southern Afghanistan – almonds, apricots, pomegranates, the precious blossoms of Rosa damascena – Arghand members decided to try to carve out a place for Afghanistan in this young market.
. . . .
Arghand’s long-term objective is to contribute to the process of weaning southern Afghanistan off of its dependence on the opium poppy. This scourge is distorting the region’s economy, criminalizing its politics, and putting its people at the mercy of armed gangs and so-called insurgents. . . . .
NGOs are generally funded by private donations, not by governments.
 
  • #96
http://www.cnas.org/afghanistan

Afghanistan has long had an outsized role in world affairs, first from an excess of interest, but now from an excess of neglect. The 1979 Soviet invasion launched the last major war of the 20th century, undoing the USSR and ushering in more than two decades of occupation, civil war, and Taliban rule for Afghanistan. On September 11, 2001, the first major war of the 21st century began, with Afghanistan again at its center.

Six years on, Western promises and Afghan hopes are at great risk. Donor fatigue and strategic confusion afflict the governments and populations of many NATO contributors. Violence in the country is increasing, governance is fragile, and economic development is too slow to provide compelling alternatives to warlordism and the drug trade. There is widespread concern that Afghanistan’s 2009 national elections cannot be held if such conditions persist.

Afghanistan, however, is a long way from lost. The CNAS Afghanistan Project starts from the premise that Afghanistan can either become an anchor in the region and a counterweight to uncertainty, or it can accelerate the forces of fragmentation that imperil vital American and allied interests and regional stability. The next American administration—regardless of political party—will have a window of opportunity within which to adopt “breakthrough ideas” in Afghanistan that can set the right course for regional and global security.

. . . .
CNAS is an important group to watch.
 
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  • #97
mohd_adam said:
How many years will the American Troops stay in Afghanistan !?
Two months ago 2 British soldiers were killed by terrorists in Northern Ireland as they were leaving for Afghanistan.
Britain achieved military victory in Ireland in 1652, President Bush declared military victory in Afghanistan in 2004 - so you only have another 352 years to go!
 
  • #98
Karzai Using Rift With U.S. to Gain Favor With Afghans
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/29/world/asia/29prexy.html

. . . .
But now, as reports mount of widespread fraud in the balloting, including allegations that supporters of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, illegally stuffed ballot boxes in the south and ripped up ballots cast for his opponents, Mr. Obama’s early praise may soon come back to haunt him.

Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission said Friday that it had received more than 2,000 complaints of fraud or abuse in last week’s election. Mr. Karzai’s biggest rival, Abdullah Abdullah, showed reporters video of a local election chief in one polling station stuffing ballot boxes himself.

. . . .
With friends like this . . . . :rolleyes:

Meanwhile -

Army Farmers Work to Regrow Afghanistan
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/08/army-farmers-work-to-regrow-afghanistan/
DASHT ROBAT, Afghanistan — U.S. assistance to Afghanistan often arrives in the form of cash, disbursed to local contractors through the Commander’s Emergency Response Program. But it also comes in the form of fertilizer spreaders, pesticide sprayers, shovels and rakes — and Midwestern common sense.

Perhaps nothing exemplifies the “Peace Corps with guns” approach to Afghanistan more than the U.S. Army’s Agribusiness Development Teams, or ADTs. As part of a relatively new experiment, Army National Guard volunteers from agricultural states have deployed here to train and advise Afghan farmers and agricultural officials on modern farming techniques and business practices. The first teams, fielded last year, were from Missouri and Texas; others have followed from places like Tennessee, Kansas and Indiana.

I recently spent time with the Nebraska National Guard’s ADT, which covers a sizeable chunk of north-central Afghanistan: Parwan, Kapisa, Bamiyan and Panjshir provinces. All of the team members, except one, are non-commissioned officers; in civilian life, they all work in agriculture or agribusiness. It’s an approach that seems to make sense: Military commanders can throw millions of dollars at their problems through reconstruction funding, but most are not trained development officers or engineers. All too often, money is poured into schools that can’t afford teachers, clinics that don’t have doctors, or roads that won’t be maintained.
Go Army!

http://www.army.mil/aps/08/information_papers/other/ARNG_Agribusiness_Development_Team.html
 
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  • #99


Remembering Freed Reporter's Slain Afghan Aide
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112685212

'New York Times' Reporter Freed In Afghan Raid
by The Associated Press
September 9, 2009
British commandos freed a New York Times reporter early Wednesday from Taliban captors who kidnapped him over the weekend in northern Afghanistan, but one of the commandos and a Times translator were killed in the rescue, officials said.

Reporter Stephen Farrell was taken hostage along with his translator in the northern province of Kunduz on Saturday. German commanders had ordered U.S. jets to drop bombs on two hijacked fuel tankers, causing a number of civilian casualties, and reporters traveled to the area to cover the story.
. . . .
The Times reported that Farrell's Afghan translator, Sultan Munadi, 34, also was killed. Farrell was unhurt.
. . . .
Munadi was first employed by The New York Times in 2002, according to his colleagues. He left the company a few years later to work for a local radio station.

He left Afghanistan last year to study for a master's degree in Germany. He came back to Kabul last month for a holiday and to see his family, and agreed to accompany Farrell to Kunduz on a freelance basis. He was married and had two young sons.

In a New York Times Web blog this month, Munadi wrote that he would never leave Afghanistan permanently and that "being a journalist is not enough; it will not solve the problems of Afghanistan. I want to work for the education of the country, because the majority of people are illiterate."

"And if I leave this country, if other people like me leave this country, who will come to Afghanistan?" he wrote. "Will it be the Taliban who come to govern this country? That is why I want to come back, even if it means cleaning the streets of Kabul. That would be a better job for me, rather than working, for example, in a restaurant in Germany."

Munadi's commentary on Afghanistan
http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/02/hell-no-i-wont-go/

Afghan Reporter Recalled as a Man of Many Abilities
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/10/world/asia/10munadi.html

RIP Sultan :frown:
 
  • #100


Astronuc said:
RIP Sultan :frown:
Thanks for that Astronuc
 
  • #101
August was the worst month so far in Afghanistan for coalition fatalities - 77 (72 from hostile action), total coalition fatalities now since the 2001 invasion: 1409.
http://www.icasualties.org/OEF/ByMonth.aspx

Also I had thought most of the fighting was occurring along the eastern border provinces, or in Kandahar, when by far the largest share of fatalities is the in southern province of http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/afghanistan_rel_2003.jpg" fatalities. Edit: Since the US launched a major offensive in Helmand in July to take back some areas/towns from the Taliban before the August election, its likely many of these Helmand fatalities were recent and from the US Marines, who staged the Helmand offensive.
 
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  • #102
Staff Sgt. Jered Monti, 30, was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor Thursday Sept 17 by President Obama for his actions on 21 June, 2006 in which he was killed.
2924.jpg

Sgt. Monti is the second CMOH recipient in the Afghanistan war.

"[URL
Remarks by President Obama[/URL]
http://www.history.army.mil/html/moh/afghanistan.html"

The incident took place in http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&sou...35.32633,70.905762&spn=6.353102,9.876709&z=7"province along the eastern border with Pakistan.

More bio from WSJ
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/AFGHANISTAN-CASUALTY-COUNT.html
Sgt. 1st Class Jared Christopher Monti
Age: 30
Hometown: Raynham, Mass.
Died: Thursday, June 22, 2006

Jared C. Monti seemed to always put the needs of others before his own.
While serving in South Korea, he was swept down a river after testing a crossing to make sure it was safe. In Kosovo, he picked up a group of Albanian kids who were being harassed by Serbs and drove them to school. He never went home for Christmas or Thanksgiving because he wanted the married guys to be with their families.
"We use to send him care packages, and he would give them to all the kids," said his brother, Tim. "He carried candy around in his pocket for them, and he would tell us how he would give kids rides in the Humvee because they were scared to walk across town."
Monti, 30, of Raynham, Mass., was killed June 21 by small-arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades in Gowardesh. He was assigned to Fort Drum.
He joined the Army immediately after he graduated high school in 1994 to make enough money to go to college. He wanted to be a fifth-grade teacher.
He is survived by his parents, Paul and Janet.
"He was just a kid that liked people and did a lot of things quietly. He was a very humble boy," said his father.
 
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  • #103
Nurestan photo from Reuters photographer Oleg Popov

0825pod03.jpg

"A U.S. soldier wounded by sniper fire was evacuated by his comrades in the village of Bargematal, Nuristan province, Afghanistan, on Tuesday. (Oleg Popov/Reuters)"

Barge Matal village again, photo from Army Sgt Matther Moeller.

3724534518_704359dd96.jpg


Flikr photo set from unknown US unit.
http://www.flickr.com/groups/1026311@N20/pool/with/3940306853/Interactive events map of day to day events in Pakistan (subscription?)
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-AFGHANISTANPAKISTANHOTSPOTS09.html
 
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  • #104
PBS Frontline's rolling out their Afghanistan piece.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/obamaswar/"

Background links:
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/Assessment_Redacted_092109.pdf" , leaked by WaPo. September 2009
http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/afghanistan_pakistan_white_paper_final.pdf"
"[URL
Summary of Army Report on major Counter Insurgency failure[/URL], Tom Ricks (WaPo reporter and author of Fiasco), Foreign Policy Magazine, July 23, 2009
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-on-a-New-Strategy-for-Afghanistan-and-Pakistan/" , March 27, 2009
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/swm/index.htm" , 1940

Multimedia link to the big June 11 CNAS think tank panel discussion referenced in the Front Line video.
http://www.cnas.org/june2009
 
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  • #105
September US fatalities declined a bit from August. Most of the Septembers have shown declines.
http://www.icasualties.org/OEF/ByMonth.aspx
Helmand province seems to have more than its share of the violence, as it's had 10 fatalities alone since Sept 22.
 
  • #106
mheslep said:
August was the worst month so far in Afghanistan for coalition fatalities - 77 (72 from hostile action), total coalition fatalities now since the 2001 invasion: 1409.
http://www.icasualties.org/OEF/ByMonth.aspx

Also I had thought most of the fighting was occurring along the eastern border provinces, or in Kandahar, when by far the largest share of fatalities is the in southern province of http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/afghanistan_rel_2003.jpg" fatalities. Edit: Since the US launched a major offensive in Helmand in July to take back some areas/towns from the Taliban before the August election, its likely many of these Helmand fatalities were recent and from the US Marines, who staged the Helmand offensive.

That was 301 coalition fatalities in Helmand, with only 89 US fatalities, since 2001.
The United Kingdom has had 190 fatalities in Helmand province, about 93% of their total losses in Afghanistan. I have a friend in the UK army in Afghanistan at this moment; odds are that's where he is stationed.

I see the Canadians are similarly concentrated next door in Kandahar province, with ~90% of their losses there.
 
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  • #107
http://www.cnas.org/node/3448

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/obamaswar/

McCrystal wants more troops. Others want to keep the level as is.

From Slate - Administration Officials: Taliban Could Become Like Hezbollah. And That's OK.

It should hardly come as a shock to anyone who has been following the debate on Afghanistan strategy, but after six hours of debate among senior national security advisers, the administration seems well on its way to what the Los Angeles Times calls a "subtle shift" in strategy. Al-Qaida has, of course, been considered an enemy all along. But whereas the Taliban used to be seen as a close ally that supported the enemy's ambitions, now the White House is taking great effort to make sure the public understands they're not one and the same. The Taliban are seen more as a local group that could eventually become like Hezbollah — a terrorist organization that is a political force and causes instability in the region but is not a threat to the United States. The new strategy would weaken the Taliban, leaving them unable to take over the government or give safe haven to al-Qaida, without destroying them. As the Wall Street Journal points out, changing the focus of the war could give the White House the justification it needs to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan either by a small number or not at all—no one is advocating a troop decrease—while still ostensibly following Gen. Stanely McChrystal's advice. It was revealed yesterday that McChrystal's request to Obama for additional troops included an option of adding more than 60,000 troops. This is news because, so far, 40,000 was always talked about as the highest figure. Now it seems 40,000 additional troops is the middle of three options, and is seen as the primary choice of senior military officers. Obama will discuss the specific numbers with his advisers for the first time today. The LAT says Obama is "at least a week away" from making any kind of decision.
The problem is that under the Taliban, the people - those without weapons or protection - suffered under the Taliban or Warlords.

The Taliban and al Qaida have formed an amorphous alliance, and both drift across the Pakistan/Afghanistan border. The Taliban were primarily Pashtun Afghanis displaced during the Russian incursion into Afghanistan. Now they are a larger group that includes many subgroups, some of which might have aspirations or jihad against perceived enemies - primarily the US.

And if that is not a concern then think about this
The IED: Weapon of Choice - washingtonpost.com
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2007/09/26/VI2007092601410.html

How long before IED's are used in US metropolitan areas?
 
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  • #108
  • #109
mheslep said:
This last bit is not coherent. Look at why IED's are used in Afghanistan, and what's required to make them.
It's based on a comment made by one of the people in the video. Materials to make IEDs are readily available in the US or can be brought in via any of the illicit smuggling/trafficking operations.
 
  • #110
Astronuc said:
It's based on a comment made by one of the people in the video.
Yes by the WaPo reporter, who just says 'many people' say we'll see them here. That's a silly comment imo
Materials to make IEDs are readily available in the US or can be brought in via any of the illicit smuggling/trafficking operations.

No the 'materials' are not readily available here, the important material being the explosives, not the triggering device. The number one source for IED explosives in Iraq is artillery ordinance, which is widely available there. In the US (and I expect elsewhere), explosives are extremely tightly controlled since 911 including the base materials. Yes, explosives can still be had with difficulty, but if the primary goal was simply to cause maximum random mayhem via explosives then then most effective route is to plant them in or alongside a building or other confined space, as history as unfortunately shown. No doubt it will happen again in the US sooner or later. However, for purposes of random violence it is incoherent to put such a device on the side of the road where most of its energy is dissipated as 'IEDs' are, unless the primary goal is to attack patrolling military forces because that is the only place they are accessible, and used that way they unfortunately have tactical value.
 
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  • #112
mheslep said:
Yes by the WaPo reporter, who just says 'many people' say we'll see them here. That's a silly comment imo

No the 'materials' are not readily available here, the important material being the explosives, not the triggering device. The number one source for IED explosives in Iraq is artillery ordinance, which is widely available there. In the US (and I expect elsewhere), explosives are extremely tightly controlled since 911 including the base materials.
One can easily purchase materials on the 'global black market' in Central Asia, Africa, S. America, . . . . and given the illicit substances that are readily available on the streets of most metropolitan and suburban areas in the US - it's not as hard as one would imagine. Actually, explosive materials have been under stricture control since 1995 and Timothy McVeigh's bombing in Oklahoma April 19, 1995, which is interesting given the bombing at the WTC on February 26, 1993.

I would also recommend reading Steve Coll's Ghost Wars.

The big concern since about 1985 has been that militant groups would strike back at the US. The term is called 'blowback'. Unfortunately, successive administrations pretty much ignored those concerns - until September 11, 2001.
 
  • #113
Astronuc said:
One can easily purchase materials on the 'global black market' in Central Asia, Africa, S. America, . . . . and given the illicit substances that are readily available on the streets of most metropolitan and suburban areas in the US - it's not as hard as one would imagine.
What do you mean? That US residents can easily buy explosives on the black market overseas and get them into the US? What do you base this on? Transportation hubs now commonly have electronic explosives detectors, not electronic narcotics detectors.
Actually, explosive materials have been under stricture control since 1995 and Timothy McVeigh's bombing in Oklahoma April 19, 1995, which is interesting given the bombing at the WTC on February 26, 1993.
Since the http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/804496/posts" Yousef's fertilizer truck bomb is going to be quite a bit harder to repeat. Even so, I doubt fertilizer is very suitable for man powerful portable explosives. An individual would do much more damage w/ a firearm I expect.

I would also recommend reading Steve Coll's Ghost Wars.
Why? Does Coll suggest as you do that there is a waive of explosives coming into that IED's could be common in 'US metropolitan areas' as you have?
 
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  • #114
mheslep said:
What do you mean? That US residents can easily buy explosives on the black market overseas and get them into the US?
The IRA never seemed to have much trouble moving them in the other direction - and security in Northern Ireland went a lot further than taking nail clippers off you at the airport.

Transportation hubs now commonly have electronic explosives detectors,
They swab a few peoples hands, they don't strip down every container and open every package. 20,000 containers arrive in the US everyday - shouldn't be impossible to get a few kg of C4 in that.

Since the http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/804496/posts" Yousef's fertilizer truck bomb is going to be quite a bit harder to repeat.
But not impossible there is still a lot of Ammonium nitrate and fuel oil sold in the US

Even so, I doubt fertilizer is very suitable for man powerful portable explosives. An individual would do much more damage w/ a firearm I expect.
Not much use in a IED, but a truck full makes a mess. It's also very easy to detonate.
Best source for an IED is military explosives/munitions. You would need a country with many 1000s of military bases in remote areas with many miles of poorly guarded fences and forgotten about stores.
 
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  • #115
mgb_phys said:
The IRA never seemed to have much trouble moving them in the other direction - and security in Northern Ireland went a lot further than taking nail clippers off you at the airport...
We're not talking about Northern Ireland or anywhere else with a full blown insurrection / civil war under-way. If we did IED's would not be on the top of my worry list.

Again: The topic was not what might happen one or twice, or how once or twice someone would go to great lengths and risk to obtain a one time 1-2kg of C4 (which is a silly risk, when opening a gas line is much simpler and as effective). The US already had once or twice, and they'll be more. The suggestion was that IEDs, that is, common and easy to obtain explosive devices, would widely appear in the US, circa 2009, despite an ATF, an FBI, new explosives restrictions, and new explosives electronics detectors at border entries.
 
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  • #116
  • #117
One [More] Death in Afghanistan: Ben Sklaver's Story
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1930683,00.html
Last week, Laura and Gary Sklaver buried their oldest boy, Ben, who was 32 when killed by a suicide bomber in the remote village of Murcheh in the distant land of Afghanistan. Ben was a captain in the U.S. Army. Now he has become one of 804 Americans, 37 from Connecticut, to lose their lives in an expanding war that belongs mostly to the parents and families of those who serve a nation preoccupied by a wounded economy and political polarization.
. . . .
Ben Sklaver grew up drawn to service. He admired his grandfather, who served with George Patton's Army in World War II. He joined ROTC at Tufts, received a master's in international relations from the Fletcher School of Diplomacy, was commissioned as an officer in the Army Reserve in 2003 and became convinced that a world consumed with conflict and terrorism might be changed by Americans bringing clean water, medicine and food as much as by drones, missiles and military might.
. . . .

In memory of Cpt Benjamin Sklaver - http://www.clearwaterinitiative.org/benjamin/

Projects - http://www.clearwaterinitiative.org/Projects/projects.htm
 
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  • #118
Astronuc said:
One [More] Death in Afghanistan: Ben Sklaver's Story
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1930683,00.html
Thanks for the Sklaver story Astronuc. That village appears to be in mostly trouble free province of Bamyan, so this is unexpected there.

I do object to Time's rendering of the story. The closing:
...two more casualties of a war waged by the forgotten few.
They are not forgotten by me.
 
  • #119
mheslep said:
Thanks for the Sklaver story Astronuc. That village appears to be in mostly trouble free province of Bamyan, so this is unexpected there.

I do object to Time's rendering of the story. The closing:

They are not forgotten by me.
Bamiyan or Bamyan is home of the Hazaras, who may be more amenable to the US presence. Unfortunately, Taliban or Taliban/al Qaida sympathizers seem to move throughout the country.

I wish US and ISAF troops weren't in that situation, but the alternative of just up an leaving would allow for worse situation.

Some of the Taliban may be very focused locally or provincially, but the Taliban have evolved under the influence of foreign entities like al-Qaida, Jamaat-E-Islami, Hezb-e Islami, and similar organizations. The situation has become more dire in Pakistan, and both Pakistan and Afghanistan face the same insurgency more or less.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091016/wl_sthasia_afp/pakistanunrest

Pakistan Attacks Show Tighter Militant Links
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/16/world/asia/16pstan.html


The situation is a bit like fighting a wildfire with unpredictable winds.
 
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  • #120
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8357011.stm
A 14-year-old boy in the tribal region of Bajaur, in north-west Pakistan, says he was detained by Taliban forces who tried to turn him into a suicide bomber. The boy is now in army hands.

He provided a detailed account to BBC correspondent Orla Guerin. His story cannot be independently verified.
 

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