Rolling together percentages probabilities

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    Probabilities Rolling
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the probability of winning a slot machine game where specific conditions must be met for a win. The scenario involves a fixed chance of activating red and blue balls in designated slots, with participants exploring the correct mathematical approach to determine the overall winning probability.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents a scenario involving a slot machine with specific probabilities for red and blue balls, suggesting a calculation using binomial distribution.
  • Another participant challenges the initial calculation, pointing out a mistake in the representation of the probability for the blue ball, asserting that 2% should be represented as 0.02 instead of 0.2.
  • A later reply reiterates the correction regarding the probability notation and expresses confusion about the formatting of the mathematical expression.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the initial logic presented, and there is disagreement regarding the correct representation of the probabilities involved in the calculation.

Contextual Notes

There are unresolved issues regarding the assumptions made about the game mechanics and the application of binomial distribution in this context.

Vincent Vega
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Hi,

Wondering if you gals/guys could help me here.
For simplicity sake, say you have slot machine. To win the game all four balls must appear in four slots. Three of the balls are blue and one red. The 2nd slot is reserved for the blue ball. As for the red balls, they can only appear in the remaining slots, 1st, 3rd and 4th.

There's a fixed 10% chance that red will activate, there's only a 2% chance blue will activate. The event must be in that exact series for you to win.
I'm totally lost, and this is over my head assuming that "binomial distribution" is needed. How do I calculate these percentages together to find what the percentage of me winning that game would be.

a 10% followed by a 2% followed by a 10% followed by a 10%

0.10*0.02*0.10*0.10
 
Last edited:
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Vincent Vega said:
a 10% followed by a 2% followed by a 10% followed by a 10%

0.10*0.2*0.10*0.10

Not sure if your logic is right, but your math is wrong. 2% would be 0.02, not 0.2.
 
DaveC426913 said:
Not sure if your logic is right, but your math is wrong. 2% would be 0.02, not 0.2.

I tried typing that w/ the tex tags and it auto-filled that value?
 
DaveC426913 said:
Not sure if your logic is right, but your math is wrong. 2% would be 0.02, not 0.2.
edit never mind it edited it now. :)
how do you force it?
Code:
0.10*0.02*0.10*0.10

whoops, sorry for the double post
 

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