Science which goes into computing hurricane predictions

In summary, the conversation discusses Hurricane Harvey and the advances in real-time prediction methods since 2008. It also mentions the challenges of predictive analysis in multiphysics and provides two news articles from Science magazine on new approaches in weather and climate prediction. The conversation also includes a summary of Hurricane Maria and an image showing its predicted paths, as well as a table of low pressure readings from intense hurricanes. Finally, it discusses the improvements in track error predictions in the Atlantic Basin from 1970 to 2020.
  • #1
scottdave
Science Advisor
Homework Helper
Insights Author
Gold Member
1,974
960
With Hurricane Harvey hitting the Texas Gulf Coast, I came across this article, while trying to learn about these different computer models.
I found the article in this PDF file an interesting read. I'm sure that there have been some advances in real-time prediction methods, since this article (Nov. 2008). And yet we still have estimates, which often disagree with each other.
https://www.tacc.utexas.edu/documents/13601/125287/science_center_of_storm.pdf
 
Earth sciences news on Phys.org
  • #2
scottdave said:
And yet we still have estimates, which often disagree with each other.
Predictive analysis in multiphysics is challenging.
 
  • Like
Likes scottdave
  • #3
You might find this open access news article from Science magazine interesting.

Its about new approaches in weather and climate prediction.
 
  • Like
Likes Astronuc
  • #4
Here is another news article from Science magazine, on this subject, WRT the current storm.
 
  • Like
Likes Astronuc
  • #5
Here is a summary of Maria. There is an image showing the predicted paths Maria will take over the next 5 days, hopefully out to sea, rather than over the coast.

The last image is a table with the low pressure readings from various intense hurricanes. The pressure is just one key variable one has to include in a simulation.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/as-hurricane-maria-slowly-pulls-away-from-puerto-rico-the-us-east-coast-awaits-its-next-move/ar-AAsgETl?li=BBmkt5R
 
  • #6
Five years later - https://www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...use-false-narratives-about-weather-forecasts/

. . . graphic below shows the reduction in average track errors in the Atlantic Basin from 1970 to 2020. Clearly, there are dramatic improvements in the 1 to 5 day range. Today, the average error at 1-day is less than 50 nautical miles. In the early 1970s, it was 2 to 3 times that amount. Today, a 3-day forecast is better than a 1-day forecast in 1970.

http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2022/04/2022-cone-of-uncertainty-update.html
 
  • Like
  • Informative
Likes russ_watters, BillTre and berkeman

What is the science behind computing hurricane predictions?

The science behind computing hurricane predictions involves a combination of meteorology, oceanography, and computer modeling. Meteorologists gather data on atmospheric conditions and use mathematical equations to predict the path and intensity of a hurricane. Oceanographers gather data on ocean temperatures and currents, which can affect a hurricane's strength. Computer models use this data to create simulations and forecast the potential impact of a hurricane.

How accurate are hurricane predictions?

Hurricane predictions are constantly improving, but there is still some uncertainty in the accuracy of these predictions. The accuracy of a prediction depends on many factors, such as the quality and quantity of data available, the complexity of the storm, and the limitations of the computer models. However, on average, hurricane predictions have become increasingly accurate over the years.

What technology is used to compute hurricane predictions?

Computing hurricane predictions requires a combination of technology. Meteorologists use specialized weather instruments, such as satellites, radar, and weather balloons, to gather data. This data is then fed into powerful computers that run complex mathematical models to simulate the behavior of a hurricane. Advanced visualization software is also used to help meteorologists interpret the data and make predictions.

How do scientists know when a hurricane will form?

Scientists use a variety of tools and techniques to monitor weather conditions and predict when a hurricane will form. These include satellite imagery, meteorological data from weather stations, and computer models. By analyzing changes in atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, and temperature, scientists can identify patterns and predict when a hurricane is likely to form.

How does climate change affect hurricane predictions?

Climate change can have a significant impact on hurricane predictions. As the Earth's climate changes, so do weather patterns, which can affect the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. Warmer ocean temperatures can also lead to stronger hurricanes. Scientists are constantly studying the effects of climate change on hurricane predictions and incorporating this information into their models to improve accuracy.

Similar threads

  • Biology and Chemistry Homework Help
Replies
5
Views
2K
Replies
2
Views
2K
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • Programming and Computer Science
Replies
29
Views
2K
  • Beyond the Standard Models
Replies
3
Views
1K
Replies
6
Views
3K
Replies
3
Views
919
  • Programming and Computer Science
Replies
15
Views
965
Replies
6
Views
3K
Back
Top