wabbit
Science Advisor
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It's not really random - the basic assumption that simplifies everything and leads to a simple model, is that at large scale, space is homogeneous. This means a huge amount of symmetry, which when combined with the equations of General Relativity reduce the possibilities for how H can vary a lot - the Friedmann equations summarize that and they are quite simple, with just a few parameters in the "LCDM" version that is currently used.
H in the past is part modeled and part measured - for instance the luminosity-redshift relation for supernovae measures how H changes over the observed range - this picks the value of parameters, which in turn give predictions for earlier times.
This is a very rough picture, there are lots of observations in cosmology from a range of different methods, and even with all that there is no certainty - only a good model that works well.
H in the past is part modeled and part measured - for instance the luminosity-redshift relation for supernovae measures how H changes over the observed range - this picks the value of parameters, which in turn give predictions for earlier times.
This is a very rough picture, there are lots of observations in cosmology from a range of different methods, and even with all that there is no certainty - only a good model that works well.