Loren Booda
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When you see a homeless, destitute person, do you ascribe their poverty mostly to willful choice, or a series of unfortunate events out of their control?
Moonbear said:Neither. I don't think it's a conscious choice, nor do I think it was a series of circumstances out of their control, except in the case of mental illness. In cases other than mental illness, I think it's mostly a series of bad decision making by someone who lacked education to make better choices.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/11/08/homeless.veterans/index.htmlWASHINGTON (CNN) -- More than 25 percent of the homeless population in the United States are war veterans, although they represent only 11 percent of the civilian adult population, according to a report to be released Thursday. [continued]
NeoDevin said:Oh yeah, and the opinions in this post do not apply to genuinely disabled people. But where I come from (Edmonton, Alberta, Canada), there are plenty of programs for these people to at least have a decent standard of living.
Loren Booda said:When you see a homeless, destitute person, do you ascribe their poverty mostly to willful choice, or a series of unfortunate events out of their control?
Loren Booda said:When you see a homeless, destitute person, do you ascribe their poverty mostly to willful choice, or a series of unfortunate events out of their control?
There are indeed some destitute who choose their situation over working to support themselves. So yes, when considering the alternative - having to work - they do indeed choose to be poor and even homeless.ranger said:Did you reread your post? Why would one choose to be poor?
If you are going this far, can you go a little farther and point us to the statistics that show that most poor people have low education levels? I have looked around a little and not found it, though you'd expect it be somewhere in the census site. And I'm too lazy to get income and education data seperately and apply Bayes' theorem on the converse data.russ_watters said:IMO, taken as an entire group, the poor mostly become poor as a result of their choices. The straightforward corellation between income and education is clear evidence of that. Now some people object to the very idea that someone would choose to be poor (and the way the question is worded makes people uncomfortable), but when someone drops out of high school, that is exactly what they are doing, whether they know it at the time or not.
In fact, I would go so far as to say that because the corellation between income and education is so strong, this question is not a matter of opinion: it is a matter of statistical fact.
That does not follow as it assumes that people are bound to be like their parents. In a free society, one should theoretically be able to make their own future. Ie, there is a statistically relevant corellation with things like single motherhood, but unless a single mother forces her daughter to have unprotected sex, the daughter is the one making the choice.vanesch said:If it it mostly by *choice* then there should only be a low correlation between how people started out in life (wealth of parents etc...) and what's their actual state. If one finds a high correlation (I bet it is...) between the wealth by which one started out, and how one ends up, then clearly this is not a choice, but the chance of being born in the right place.
Most people tend to accept the corellation without seeing the data (it is so obvious), but ok:Gokul43201 said:If you are going this far, can you go a little farther and point us to the statistics that show that most poor people have low education levels? I have looked around a little and not found it, though you'd expect it be somewhere in the census site. And I'm too lazy to get income and education data seperately and apply Bayes' theorem on the converse data.
PS: The converse correlation (that people with little education are more likely to be poor) is easy enough to find, but that is not the subject of this thread.
And on income, the table (at the bottom of the page) is difficult to parse for the forum, but a few stats (for men):Persons with lower levels of educational attainment were more likely to be unemployed than those who had higher levels of educational attainment. The 2004 unemployment rate for adults (25 years old and over) who had not completed high school was 8.5 percent compared with 5.0 percent for those who had completed high school and 2.7 percent for those with a bachelor's degree or higher (figure 23). Younger people with high school diplomas tended to have higher unemployment rates than persons 25 years old and over with similar levels of education (table 378).
I see in this subject a knee-jerk reaction that people say 'no one would choose to be poor', which is true, but misses the point entirely. The question asks if people are poor by choice, meaning do their choices cause them to be poor (whether they understand the causality or not when they make the choice). It seems to me that people are quite simply uncomfortable with the idea and reject it without basis, when (for the US anyway), the statistics show a clear corellation.DaveC426913 said:IMO, this is a topic that is shot-through with personal preconceptions and unfounded opinions (this doesn't mean they're wrong, it just means they may not be based on knowledge of the subject). Not that I'm suggesting anyone here doesn't know what they're talking about, but it does seem that this is a topic particularly sensitive to the slippery slope between knowledge and preconception.
I am just wondering if there's a way in this thread for people to somehow self-monitor, stating what is simply their opinion vs. something more reliable.
Russ, you didn't read my post carefully. Assuming I didn't miss anything, all the tables on that page (and the portions you quoted) only support the converse correlation, which I've already seen the data on. I have yet to see a table that says something like among the lowest income quintile, x% are high-school dropouts, y% have a high-school diploma and z% went to college. If this is covered in the page you linked to can you show me where?russ_watters said:Most people tend to accept the corellation without seeing the data (it is so obvious), but ok:
There is a vast quantity of information compiled on this subject and available with a quick google. Here's a huge resource: http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d04/ch_5.asp
Among other things, it says: And on income, the table (at the bottom of the page) is difficult to parse for the forum, but a few stats (for men):
(median income)
Some high school: $20,902
High School diploma: $26,653
Some college: $31,734
College degree: $39,238
The poverty line is a moving target depending on the size of your family (another choice?) and location, but for a family of 4 it is currently set at $20,650 in the US. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States
The high school dropout rate in the US is around 25%. Unsurprisingly, the poverty rate is roughly half the high school dropout rate (considering the median income stats I posted above.
russ_watters said:I see in this subject a knee-jerk reaction that people say 'no one would choose to be poor', which is true, but misses the point entirely. The question asks if people are poor by choice, meaning do their choices cause them to be poor (whether they understand the causality or not when they make the choice).
Sorry, missed that you were looking at it from the other side. Still, the corellation in the direction we usually see it is so strong it heavily implies that it works both ways. Ie, if half of all high school dropouts make less than $20k, that's pretty much the entire population of poor right there. Though I'm sure there are some people with college degrees who live below the poverty line, it can't be very many.Gokul43201 said:Russ, you didn't read my post carefully. Assuming I didn't miss anything, all the tables on that page (and the portions you quoted) only support the converse correlation, which I've already seen the data on. I have yet to see a table that says something like among the lowest income quintile, x% are high-school dropouts, y% have a high-school diploma and z% went to college. If this is covered in the page you linked to can you show me where?
Yes, that's sort of what I expected...but I'd have had to dig through stuff to find out what fraction of the population actually drops out (I thought this was a small number but I could be wrong). I'd have thought the data in this form is important enough to have someone tabulate it and put it out there.russ_watters said:Sorry, missed that you were looking at it from the other side. Still, the corellation in the direction we usually see it is so strong it heavily implies that it works both ways. Ie, if half of all high school dropouts make less than $20k, that's pretty much the entire population of poor right there.
I think I remember seeing a document that shows how people with poor nurterer have a higher probability of getting poorer education which implies from what you have found that that are likely to be poor.Gokul43201 said:If you are going this far, can you go a little farther and point us to the statistics that show that most poor people have low education levels? I have looked around a little and not found it, though you'd expect it be somewhere in the census site. And I'm too lazy to get income and education data seperately and apply Bayes' theorem on the converse data.
PS: The converse correlation (that people with little education are more likely to be poor) is easy enough to find, but that is not the subject of this thread.
I think that due to unfortunate events in a person's life they never develop the will to choose not to be destitute. War veterans aren't the only people who can become traumatized. An abusive or neglectful childhood can cripple a person emotionally to the point that they are incapable of acting within social standards. From what I've witnessed, society doesn't care about an individual's unresolved personal issues. To some extent, our experiences define who we are. A person does not have complete control over their experiences, especially at an early age. They may not be mentally ill, but nonetheless feel separated from society.Loren Booda said:When you see a homeless, destitute person, do you ascribe their poverty mostly to willful choice, or a series of unfortunate events out of their control?
Gokul43201 said:This is what we are discussing in this thread, and this is the statistic you need to provide to show that most poor people are that way because they didn't get an education.
We want P(A|B), where A=uneducated, B=poor. You have shown me data for P(B|A). I realize I could calculate this stuff from the data in the tables and some other census data, but that seems like too much work right now.
That is chance, but chance with respect to they should have known the gamble they were getting into, working in what was such a rapidly expanding industry.Evo said:Working in telecommunications where there have been so many mergers in the past few year, I've seen people go from making $250,000.00 a year to $20,000 a year in the blink of an eye.
For many they are poor by chance. Many of these have PHD's but chose this career for the big payouts. Unfortunately, the big payouts never happened.
This is not terribly different from urban parts of the US (except for the last bit).vanesch said:In order to get a good education, you need:
1) to live in the fancy (expensive) parts of town, to go to the good local public school, where you meet other kids from parents who are educated/stimulating/wealthy, and so the level of the classes is high, and the teachers can do a good job OR
2) go to a private school where selection levels are such that only kids from parents who are wealthy can even get in (fee, and social selection)
If you cannot get 1) or 2) you will go to
3) a public school in a bad neighborhood where there is total lack of discipline in the classroom, a terrible lack of level, and the teachers cannot deliver high-level courses (but just try to teach 15-year olds how to write their name, matter of speaking).
vanesch said:This was also my point. Maybe in the US, things are different, but in many European countries, your education level (or the street value of your diploma, which might be slightly different) is essentially set by the income level of your parents. In order to get a good education, you need:
1) to live in the fancy (expensive) parts of town, to go to the good local public school, where you meet other kids from parents who are educated/stimulating/wealthy, and so the level of the classes is high, and the teachers can do a good job OR
2) go to a private school where selection levels are such that only kids from parents who are wealthy can even get in (fee, and social selection)
If you cannot get 1) or 2) you will go to
3) a public school in a bad neighborhood where there is total lack of discipline in the classroom, a terrible lack of level, and the teachers cannot deliver high-level courses (but just try to teach 15-year olds how to write their name, matter of speaking).
Looking at Enron and Worldcomm - people lost jobs and life savings - by chance.Evo said:Working in telecommunications where there have been so many mergers in the past few year, I've seen people go from making $250,000.00 a year to $20,000 a year in the blink of an eye.
For many they are poor by chance. Many of these have PHD's but chose this career for the big payouts. Unfortunately, the big payouts never happened.
scorpa said:As for the kids from lower income groups, do they not have access to student loans, scholarships and bursaries where you are from?
What? No way. Rule #2 of investing is diversify. People who put their whole life savings into Enron (regardless of what the brass said) were idiots.Astronuc said:Looking at Enron and Worldcomm - people lost jobs and life savings - by chance.
Except, of course, the choice to ge that education. I'm talking high school: it's free.As for poor, they may not have sufficient education to know what choices they do have.
It is the same in the US, but IMO, it is a bigger problem that 25% of the population doesn't even avail themselves of the education provided to them for free. One can't complain about not having good opportunities when they didn't take advantage of the ones that were provided for them.vanesch said:This was also my point. Maybe in the US, things are different, but in many European countries, your education level (or the street value of your diploma, which might be slightly different) is essentially set by the income level of your parents.
Yes, but there are two parts to that corellation. The first is what you said - that rich parents can pay for a good school. But the second is equally important: the rich parents care about school and push their kids to succeed at it.But most of the time you have a strong correlation between the wealth of the parents, and how well a kid does in the educational system.
Astronuc said:As for the poor, they may not have sufficient education to know what choices they do have.
This is an epitome of reverse causality, unless it is sarcasm. (Hint: The dogs are barking to defend their bones.)Huckleberry said:There is a high correlation between barking and the number of bones a dog has buried in the backyard. If cats barked more then they would have some bones. If cats can't bark then that's their problem.
EnumaElish said:This is an epitome of reverse causality, unless it is sarcasm. (Hint: The dogs are barking to defend their bones.)
russ_watters said:Yes, but there are two parts to that corellation. The first is what you said - that rich parents can pay for a good school. But the second is equally important: the rich parents care about school and push their kids to succeed at it.
vanesch said:Sure. I even think that's more important! Well educated parents can educate their kids probably even better than any school can. But so it's your "luck" to have well-educated parents who care or not. You don't choose your parents.
Economist said:The question is how strong (or weak) this correlation is. Many people have uneducated parents, but they still want to get JDs, MDs, PhDs, etc. And other people have highly educated parents (such as professors) and they don't care much about education.
It doesn't have to be this way. Poor children could get a much better education if they were given school vouchers to attend whichever school they wanted (including private schools). The reason inner city schools suck so bad, is that generally they have little incentive to provide the best service. Furthermore, they are heavily regulated and filled with red-tape. Let someone who's income rests on providing these kids an education and watch this trend reverse. Oh and before anyone tries to tell me that "inner city schools need more money." I don't but that argument. Many studies have shown that public school funding has went up (and yes they controlled for inflation), yet results have stayed the same. Furthermore, some of the worst inner city school districts in the US have some of the best funding per student, in fact, often times these schools get the funding per student double of private schools.
vanesch said:It is not so much the question of public/private, but rather the fact that there is no "return on result". In fact, given that in suburb schools (bad schools) they get bad students, everybody finds it normal that there are no good results.