News What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

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Protests in Egypt have escalated into violence, with reports of protesters being beaten and arrested, including journalists. The unrest is characterized as significant but not an outright uprising, contrasting with the recent events in Tunisia. Rumors suggest that President Mubarak's family may have fled the country, raising concerns about potential instability. As protests continue, there are fears that the situation could worsen, particularly with a planned massive demonstration. The emergence of a leaderless youth movement is seen as a critical factor in challenging Mubarak's long-standing regime.
  • #51


APC?

EDIT:
Sorry, get it Armored Personnel Carrier... :redface:
 
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  • #52


CNN: President Mubarak is going to hold a speech in 10 min.
 
  • #53


Armored Personnel Carrier

And... Mubarak has confirmed that he has given control of security over to the army. That is far worse than mere military involvement... I suspect he's going to give the usual line of carp.
 
  • #54


nismaratwork said:
And... Mubarak has confirmed that he has given control of security over to the army. That is far worse than mere military involvement... I suspect he's going to give the usual line of carp.

Crap is the word. I think the old air chief marshal has had the army in his inner pocket, to control 'everything', for the last 30 years...
 
  • #55


OK... The ruling party headquarters is on fire, Mubarak's family is in London......No matter what happens at the end of the day, Egypt is going to hear the sucking sound of investors leaving their economy for years...
 
  • #56


BBC: Sigh, Tony B:liar is 'talking good' on President Mubarak...
 
  • #57


nismaratwork said:
OK... The ruling party headquarters is on fire, Mubarak's family is in London...

Holly smoke
 
  • #58


... where is Mubarak speech ... ??
 
  • #59


DevilsAvocado said:
... where is Mubarak speech ... ??

I don't know that he CAN give one as scheduled with his main building ablaze. I suspect we'll see some secure statement, or... and this strikes me as wise, but unlikely... he could be using the army and confusion to cover his retreat to the UK.
 
  • #60


Rueters said:
People are climbing on tanks.

The curfew hasn't done anything according to Ben Wedemen.
 
  • #61


The army isn't fighting the protesters, and the protesters aren't fighting the army! The protesters are advancing... I'm done posting for a bit... this is the world changing and I'd like to watch live.
 
  • #62


nismaratwork said:
...No matter what happens at the end of the day, Egypt is going to hear the sucking sound of investors leaving their economy for years...

This comment is hilarious! :smile:

But wait! Let me expand it!

"No matter what happens at the end of 4 of July 1776, the US is going to hear the sucking sound of British investors leaving their economy for years..."

Hypothesis: Egyptians are capable of (re)building their own country.
 
  • #63


nismaratwork said:
I don't know that he CAN give one as scheduled with his main building ablaze.

Okay, but maybe they have a camera in the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Presidential_Palace" ...?? :bugeye: (:wink:)

But sure, as you say – we don’t know sh*t what is really going on at 'that level'... maybe it’s a 'smokescreen' for "fight or flight"...
 
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  • #64


nismaratwork said:
The army isn't fighting the protesters,

THAT IS REAL FKN GOOD NEWS! YES!

CNN: Hillary Clinton speaking...

MUBARAK IS SMOKED HE HAS NO SUPPORT FROM THE USA!
 
  • #65


...And now, from the SAME position on CNN, the SAME GROUP... was just subjected to gunfire. The crowd ran from the site, then ran back to help what seemed like one or two wounded, and then to attack. It's unclear if those were gunshots (they sounded like them to me, and they sounded like assault rifles on burst).

Then... a car, a jeep I think, blasted through some people blazing sparks and out of the frame. Ben Wedemen is saying that now the police are being attacked, and the police headquarters.
 
  • #66


... this is crazy now there is real gunfire, live rounds, on the street ... :frown:

EDIT:
yup :frown: :frown: :frown:
 
  • #67


I have a ton of things to do today...but I just want to sit and watch this, it's like real-time history.
 
  • #68


DevilsAvocado said:
... this is crazy now there is real gunfire, live rounds, on the street ... :frown:

EDIT:
yup :frown: :frown: :frown:

Another report of a Government building set on fire. Why doesn't Mubarak hold a news conference - put a message out - try to calm the fears?
 
  • #69


lisab said:
I have a ton of things to do today...but I just want to sit and watch this, it's like real-time history.

lisab, this is HISTORY! Take the day off... :wink:
 
  • #70


WhoWee said:
Another report of a Government building set on fire. Why doesn't Mubarak hold a news conference - put a message out - try to calm the fears?

See post #63.
 
  • #71


Party time! :frown:
 
  • #72


The ruling party headquarters is definitely on fire.

4ucina.png
 
  • #73


WOW! CNN is reporting that in Alexandria, the soldiers and protesters are embracing each other! The soldiers are joining and supporting the protesters! WOW that's great!
 
  • #74


Lacy33 said:
Party time! :frown:


yup :frown: :cry: :mad: :frown:
 
  • #75


lisab said:
WOW! CNN is reporting that in Alexandria, the soldiers and protesters are embracing each other! The soldiers are joining and supporting the protesters! WOW that's great!

WOW WOW WOW! CNN: "Carnival atmosphere" !
 
  • #76


CNN: If President Mubarak decides to hold the speech – Who is left to listen to him …


MuuHaHa! :biggrin:
 
  • #77


DevilsAvocado said:
WOW WOW WOW! CNN: "Carnival atmosphere" !

Or like circus. We have been seeing the clowns and monkey's. I would like to see the Lion now.
 
  • #78


Lacy33 said:
Or like circus. We have been seeing the clowns and monkey's. I would like to see the Lion now.

Hmmm... that does often seem to be the way. Maybe Mubarak is gone, maybe the military commands enough respect to defuse Tonight's demonstrations.

I'm not sure what all of this means, so I'm inclined to take your view Lacy, or the other possible explanation for the military behavior, which is that Mubarak has left Egypt. We won't get to see until the curtain is pulled, eh?


The army clearly has control... so the question now is... does Mubarak have control of the army? If so, then we may see this as the PEAK of demonstrations, and no revolution.
 
  • #79


Lacy33 said:
Or like circus. We have been seeing the clowns and monkey's. I would like to see the Lion now.

:smile:

Lacy... this is maybe not the time for jokes... but do you mean the "Iron Lion Zion"...? :rolleyes:
 
  • #80


Lacy33 said:
Or like circus. We have been seeing the clowns and monkey's. I would like to see the Lion now.

Careful what you wish for...
 
  • #81


nismaratwork said:
The army clearly has control... so the question now is... does Mubarak have control of the army? If so, then we may see this as the PEAK of demonstrations, and no revolution.

If Mubarak doesn’t get the $$$$ from the USA there is no control... and what you could tell from Hillary Clinton now there’s some 'restrictions' on these bucks...
 
  • #82


WhoWee said:
Careful what you wish for...

I know.
 
  • #83


lisab said:
WOW! CNN is reporting that in Alexandria, the soldiers and protesters are embracing each other! The soldiers are joining and supporting the protesters! WOW that's great!

that is interesting. but i wonder if this is a breaking of ranks or if the entire army is refusing to cooperate with the gov't?
 
  • #84


According to SVT the government has lost the control... and there seem to be some 'general confusion'... the police fired teargas, which landed in among the military... :bugeye:
 
  • #85


Stocks are down in the US as a result. Crude oil went up 2%.
 
  • #86


drankin said:
Stocks are down in the US as a result. Crude oil went up 2%.

I'm honestly impressed that they didn't do worse! 4 days, and it's martial law, and tanks in the streets; if I were an investor in anything to do with Egypt I'd be finding religion right now.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/2...y-put-cnn-camera-confiscated/?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

Yeah, seems like the hugging is done, and now it's just a huge leadership vacuum. People are out and completely violating curfew, they've challenged the police, and the police retreated rather than slaughter their own people. If this goes further, Mubarak is cooked... 82 is a good retirement age. :rolleyes:

DA: The police are very thuggish in Egypt (not the equivalent of patrolmen) when it comes to riot squads, and plain-clothes squads. The military is actually quite respected, hence the warm welcome for them while burning government buildings. These people seem VERY specific about one thing: Mubarak... go away. I'm ashamed at how timid the US response has been (white house, not individual)... wait. and. see.
 
  • #87


lisab said:
I have a ton of things to do today...but I just want to sit and watch this, it's like real-time history.

Yep. Revolution. Isn't it fun?

But seriously, I pray that the people of Egypt will receive the democracy they're asking for, and let it not be hijacked by anti-American groups. Much of the people of America are on your side, Egypt!
 
  • #88


So basically this is a 50/50 situation right now that could go either way? Like Egypt could become a liberal democracy and U.S. ally by choice of the people instead of via a dictator, or it could get taken over by the Islamic Brotherhood and become very anti-U.S...?
 
  • #89


CAC1001 said:
So basically this is a 50/50 situation right now that could go either way? Like Egypt could become a liberal democracy and U.S. ally by choice of the people instead of via a dictator, or it could get taken over by the Islamic Brotherhood and become very anti-U.S...?

I'm not sure if those are the exact odds, but I think you have it pretty accurately.
 
  • #90


Wow, I bet Israel is *worried*.
 
  • #91


lisab said:
Wow, I bet Israel is *worried*.
I guess similar to how we'd feel if Canada and Mexico became Iran.

But what I'm reading is that it will hopefully not be a fanatic muslim takeover. It seems there is no plan, so anyone can take control at this point. Unfortunately, from what I've also read, no one is capable of stepping in and fixing things at this time.
 
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  • #92


lisab said:
Wow, I bet Israel is *worried*.

No doubt. Personally, I'm worried more about the fate of the Suez Canal $200 bbl oil is a real possibility.
 
  • #93


I don't think that Egypt is going to change as much as some of you seem to expect. Mubarak's time is definitely up, but revolution? If thn military refuses to fight the people, that's it... the police (by accounts) have already fled, and their various stations and headquarters ransacked.

It comes down to what the Egyptian people want, how much they want it, and in the end it all comes down to whether or not the military will move from a protective role, and begin to kill their own people...
...remember, that is NOT what they signed up for, but we'll see.

I also don't see that this can be leveraged into an "islamic revolution"... that's just not what's on the street from what's being reported.

I think this represents a period of (violent) turmoil, but I don't think that Egypt is anywhere near total implosion. Oh, and I'm guessing that Israel is thrilled: what's new?... they're still surrounded by enemies, but at least they don't have to worry about this populist revolt spreading!

Now the other Arab nations, according to accounts by their diplomats via Fareed Zakaria (in Davos), are essentially scared "poop"less. If this can happen to Egypt, there isn't a single Arab nation that can count on their stability right now.

In the midst of all of this, added to the continued failure of the Palestinians to re-establish a credible government and the Israeli's willingness to sit behind a wall (it's working pretty well) is no longer as hot a topic. You can't exactly say that the middle east is uneasy because of Jerusalem when you have populist uprisings that are very much home-grown and concerned with domestic issues.

I think, finally, the issue of the Palestinian people has been openly acknowledged to be what it is: they've been pawns, and now they're nothing. I don't mean this as a reflection of my beliefs, but as WhoWee points out... that canal is not a joke.
 
  • #94


I think I understand the 'political dynamics' now, Mubarak:
"I have taken the side, and will always be taking the side of the poor people of Egypt"​

That’s why the man gets reelected, year after year – of course! ... so many poor ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DtOr6BBOHg

Title: "Back to the Future" ?


... will this really work ...
 
  • #95


DevilsAvocado said:
I think I understand the 'political dynamics' now, Mubarak:
"I have taken the side, and will always be taking the side of the poor people of Egypt"​

That’s why the man gets reelected, year after year – of course! ... so many poor ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DtOr6BBOHg

Title: "Back to the Future" ?


... will this really work ...

Too little too late. My prediction is that Mubarak himself will be forced to step down.
 
  • #96


Evo said:
But what I'm reading is that it will hopefully not be a fanatic muslim takeover.

I think (and I hope) that you are right. The protestors were not the "beardy gang", they were mostly young people fed up with the idea that Mubarak’s son is going to control their lives for another +30 years.

From what I heard the Muslim Brotherhood has only 25% of the potential voters.

And when you think about it – would you risk your life only to install a new "dictatorial madcap"...

"Other countries" in the region seem much more "fundamental".
 
  • #97


Char. Limit said:
Too little too late.

Yup, my feeling too.
 
  • #98


No one going to mention stories about western promotion of regime change (always a dicey game, but the credit crunch and coming predictable trouble is going to be destablising many countries, so maybe better to try to influence the direction of change so far as possible...)

The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...acking-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html
 
  • #99


nismaratwork said:
I don't think that Egypt is going to change as much as some of you seem to expect.

Agree, and I think you guys over there has much more to say about this than you might think. The USA 'contributes' with $3 billions per year to Egypt, and $1.5 billions goes directly to the military. I’m just guessing now, but I don’t think the army 'chooses' poverty to install some crazy "Ayatollah"...
 
  • #100


nismaratwork said:
I don't think that Egypt is going to change as much as some of you seem to expect. Mubarak's time is definitely up, but revolution? If thn military refuses to fight the people, that's it... the police (by accounts) have already fled, and their various stations and headquarters ransacked.

It comes down to what the Egyptian people want, how much they want it, and in the end it all comes down to whether or not the military will move from a protective role, and begin to kill their own people...
...remember, that is NOT what they signed up for, but we'll see.

I also don't see that this can be leveraged into an "islamic revolution"... that's just not what's on the street from what's being reported.

I think this represents a period of (violent) turmoil, but I don't think that Egypt is anywhere near total implosion. Oh, and I'm guessing that Israel is thrilled: what's new?... they're still surrounded by enemies, but at least they don't have to worry about this populist revolt spreading!

Now the other Arab nations, according to accounts by their diplomats via Fareed Zakaria (in Davos), are essentially scared "poop"less. If this can happen to Egypt, there isn't a single Arab nation that can count on their stability right now.

In the midst of all of this, added to the continued failure of the Palestinians to re-establish a credible government and the Israeli's willingness to sit behind a wall (it's working pretty well) is no longer as hot a topic. You can't exactly say that the middle east is uneasy because of Jerusalem when you have populist uprisings that are very much home-grown and concerned with domestic issues.

I think, finally, the issue of the Palestinian people has been openly acknowledged to be what it is: they've been pawns, and now they're nothing. I don't mean this as a reflection of my beliefs, but as WhoWee points out... that canal is not a joke.


Another concern is what happens if the military splinters into opposing factions?

Does anyone remember how beautiful Beirut (The Paris of the Middle East) was - before the war?
http://www.google.com/images?hl=en&...esult_group&ct=title&resnum=1&ved=0CB8QsAQwAA
 

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