News What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

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Protests in Egypt have escalated into violence, with reports of protesters being beaten and arrested, including journalists. The unrest is characterized as significant but not an outright uprising, contrasting with the recent events in Tunisia. Rumors suggest that President Mubarak's family may have fled the country, raising concerns about potential instability. As protests continue, there are fears that the situation could worsen, particularly with a planned massive demonstration. The emergence of a leaderless youth movement is seen as a critical factor in challenging Mubarak's long-standing regime.
  • #151


nismaratwork said:
I literally read your post, then pulled a double-take on the Iranian money funneling. I mean, you always have fun posts, but damn. At this point, I'd be thrilled to see anything that doesn't lead to Egyptians murdering Egytians for Egypt... it would be terrible for the region and a tragedy. Egypt has a chance to set a positive example, if no bad actors seize the reigns of power of course.

I tried to do it from memory, but went back to the memo to check my facts. I also did a double take on the amount of money Iran is funneling into the region.

One doesn't have to have too great an imagination to figure out Iran's motive. But I'd love to see some wikileaks out of Iran. It might be a good thing for Egyptians to know the truth about who's on their side before making any decisions.

Another http://213.251.145.96/cable/2007/05/07CAIRO1417.html" states that whoever replaces Mubarek will likely adopt an anti-American tone in his initial public rhetoric. Though the memo is nearly 4 years old now, and much has changed since then.
 
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  • #152


This has been an interesting thread to read through. I still don't understand exactly why they are rioting/protesting in Egypt. Is it just young people letting off steam? I spoke with a young Egyptian friend of mine here about it. He's not sure what to attribute it to. Any clarification is appreciated.

I don't understand the references to Israel, Palestine, etc. Does the unrest in Egypt have anything to do with that situation?

As nismaratwork has noted, the plight of Palestinians seems to be pretty much a non-issue for most everybody except Palestinians. The same might be said for most humanitarian issues I suppose.
 
  • #153


ThomasT said:
This has been an interesting thread to read through. I still don't understand exactly why they are rioting/protesting in Egypt. Is it just young people letting off steam? I spoke with a young Egyptian friend of mine here about it. He's not sure what to attribute it to. Any clarification is appreciated.

I don't understand the references to Israel, Palestine, etc. Does the unrest in Egypt have anything to do with that situation?

As nismaratwork has noted, the plight of Palestinians seems to be pretty much a non-issue for most everybody except Palestinians. The same might be said for most humanitarian issues I suppose.

Ha ha! It would take me a week to type up an opinion on the matter. Let me give you my readers digest version:

It all started out with this couple named Adam and Eve. Then things took a turn for the worse.
 
  • #154


It doesn't sound to me, that the people that are rioting will accept an appointment by Mubarik of someone in his cabinet. I could be wrong.

But I don't know what they think is going to happen. I don't see a magic wand to cure their ills. Perhaps the best they can do is accept the appointment, now that their state of mind is known perhaps more attention will be directed at programs to address the issues. But in reality, how much can be done quickly?
 
  • #155


Evo said:
... perhaps more attention will be directed at programs to address the issues.
What are the issues?
 
  • #156


OmCheeto said:
Ha ha! It would take me a week to type up an opinion on the matter.
Any well researched opinion is welcomed. It seems that this will still be a hot topic a week from now.
 
  • #157


Evo said:
It doesn't sound to me, that the people that are rioting will accept an appointment by Mubarik of someone in his cabinet. I could be wrong.

But I don't know what they think is going to happen. I don't see a magic wand to cure their ills. Perhaps the best they can do is accept the appointment, now that their state of mind is known perhaps more attention will be directed at programs to address the issues. But in reality, how much can be done quickly?

Unless every media report is wrong, you're right.

For the second part, to respond to you and ThomasT: You're talking about 30 years of MANY different issues, and I don't claim to know or understand them all. Some I know, but that you probably do as well are:

-The Muslim Brotherhood LOATHES Mubarak. Personally they loathe him because he took them from a powerful militant group with political clout (much like Hamas), and in the course of killing, imprisoning, and finally denying them a political voice at allv... into a kind of charity and hate group. True, the MB is more moderate in its rank and file now, but its leaders (those that are left) are very much like Ayman Al Zawahiri (Egyptian). There is no denying them a voice in a new government if it is free, but Egypt is NOT Iran, and these are not young people looking to imitate Iran.

-Mubarak allowed for some financial reforms which led to the rapid emergence of a well educated middle class...

-...who are still paid like dirt and treated like dirt if they speak up.

-The police/Security Forces are LOATHED, especially the 'Thugs'

-The army is at the center of Egyptian life, and I'd argue it has been for millenia. The army is seen as heroic, having recaptured the Suez for a time, and because the only time in about 60% of Egyptian living memory.. the only time the military was dispatched was to deal with the hated police.

Beyond that... you're talking about a history of wars and despotism, but also highly advanced society which is quite populous and educated. People have suddenly not just LEARNED how others live, they just turn on their cell phones and can WATCH it in HD video.

Beyond that, you have this immense anger that's been building, but to release it at ALL meant imprisonment, torture, death, or the need to flee.

Oh yes... and Tunisia, which is considered a small and unimportant nation next to Egypt, yet their people exerted their will. There is so much money in Egypt, and so much waste and hoarding of that money... and frankly genuine economic troubles.

Think of it as the flash-mob of protest.

edit: I'd add that while Iran is doubtless thrilled to see Israel and the USA's major strategic ally suffer, it's a very myopic view for them to take. If Israel feels truly threatened, and that they may once again have to seriously militarize the Egyptian border, they may well decide to deal with the Iranian Nuclear programs first and harshly. There's no good outcome here, except some kind of interim government to get through to new elections, and the emergence of a strong central leadership that pacifies the public and stages incremental reforms.
 
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  • #158


Evo said:
It doesn't sound to me, that the people that are rioting will accept an appointment by Mubarik of someone in his cabinet. I could be wrong.

But I don't know what they think is going to happen. I don't see a magic wand to cure their ills. Perhaps the best they can do is accept the appointment, now that their state of mind is known perhaps more attention will be directed at programs to address the issues. But in reality, how much can be done quickly?

Al Jazeera is reporting that the protesters will not stop until Mubarek resigns.

They are also reporting that people are stocking up on food, water, and cash.

I would imagine that with the way the military and the protesters seem to have been getting along, a top general would be my best guess as a most probable new leader. But after that, as ElBaradei has said, it's up to Egyptians to create a new Egypt.
 
  • #159


OmCheeto said:
Al Jazeera is reporting that the protesters will not stop until Mubarek resigns.

They are also reporting that people are stocking up on food, water, and cash.

I would imagine that with the way the military and the protesters seem to have been getting along, a top general would be my best guess as a most probable new leader. But after that, as ElBaradei has said, it's up to Egyptians to create a new Egypt.

I bet on a general, but that's not necessarily a bad thing; Egypt always draws from its military.
 
  • #161


ThomasT said:
What are the issues?
They say unemployment.
 
  • #162


The following video was posted about a year ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfgR7l3rFxs

It's a bit long, and it's truthiness is questionable, but it's worth watching as a precursor to this weeks events.

In 2005, Mubarek apparently made a constitutional modification that made it virtually impossible for anyone other than himself to win the presidency.
 
  • #163


OmCheeto said:
In 2005, Mubarek apparently made a constitutional modification that made it virtually impossible for anyone other than himself to win the presidency.
Sadly, this is how it is in many of these countries, you can vote all you want...
 
  • #164


ThomasT said:
This has been an interesting thread to read through. I still don't understand exactly why they are rioting/protesting in Egypt. Is it just young people letting off steam? I spoke with a young Egyptian friend of mine here about it. He's not sure what to attribute it to. Any clarification is appreciated.

As with many political questions, the answer is the same: it's the economy, stupid! The global economic crisis has caused prices, especially food prices, to rise, and, as in many other parts of the globe, unemployment is an issue. These pressing economic troubles, combined with longstanding issues with corruption of the Mubarak regime, its failure to reform itself and a general view that the government has been largely ineffective at helping the people, have led to the protests calling for Mubarak to step down. Anthony Shadid, who wrote a recent piece on the unrest in the Arab world, said in an interview:

"But Tunisia offered a path of change that we haven't really seen in the region lately. [...] What Tunisia said is that we're having a kind of a popular uprising that is motivated by economic grievances. They later turned into political demands. But it was popular frustration, and frustration with their government's inability to provide for better lives that, in ways, trigger that protest.

And I think that's - that formula, that idea of economic grievances, frustration, anger, corruption and then political demand is something - is a formula that we see in a lot of Arab countries at this point." (transcript)​

In democratic nations, economic troubles have led to regime changes (e.g. in the US, kicking the Republicans out in 2008, then kicking out the Democrats back out of Congress in 2010). Unfortunately, Mubarak has essentially rigged the elections in Egypt so that peacefully kicking the current regime out of government is not a practical option.
I don't understand the references to Israel, Palestine, etc. Does the unrest in Egypt have anything to do with that situation?

An important US/Israeli strategy in the Israel/Palestine conflict has been the blockade of Gaza. In addition to stopping weapons materials from entering the Gaza strip, the US and Israel have also been using this blockade to allow only limited aid shipments as a way to try to weaken Hamas, which controls the region. The contrast in Israel's treatment of the people of the West Bank (represented by the more moderate Palestinian Authority) versus the treatment of the people in Gaza sends the message that electing a more moderate leaders is the only way to improve living conditions in Gaza. Israel is very serous about maintaining this blockade of Gaza as evidenced by their raids on aid flotillas sent to Gaza last May.

Egypt shares a land border with Gaza and is therefore important in maintaining this blockade of Gaza. Mubarak has cooperated with the US and Israel in closing the Egypt-Gaza border. Should a Egypt's government change its position and open the border to Gaza, the situation would change dramatically.
 
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  • #165


Ygggdrasil said:
As with many political questions, the answer is the same: it's the economy, stupid!
Ok, I can understand that. It had to 'boil over' at some time, and it just happened to be now.

Regarding the Palestinians in Gaza I think that they're effectively nonexexistent as far as the rest of the world is concerned.
 
  • #166


Ygggdrasil said:
As with many political questions, the answer is the same: it's the economy, stupid! The global economic crisis has caused prices, especially food prices, to rise, and, as in many other parts of the globe, unemployment is an issue.

Food inflation is running at 17% per annum in Egypt. And is running away around the world of course.

Given food is half the weekly budget for the world's poor, compared to 10% for its rich, you can expect food insecurity to cause political instability in many countries as it did during the last food/oil price spike of 2008.

There was food rioting in Algeria only a fortnight ago.

"We are entering a danger territory," said Abdolreza Abbassian, chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization, on Jan. 5. The price of a basket of cereals, oils, dairy, meat and sugar that reflects global consumption patterns has risen steadily for six months, and has just broken through the previous record, set during the last food panic in June, 2008.

"There is still room for prices to go up much higher," Abbassian added, "if for example the dry conditions in Argentina become a drought, and if we start having problems with winter kill in the Northern Hemisphere for the wheat crops." After the loss of at least a third of the Russian and Ukrainina grain crop in last summer's heat wave and the devastating floods in Australia and Pakistan, there's no margin for error left .

It was Russia and India banning grain exports in order to keep domestic prices down that set the food prices on the international market soaring. Most countries cannot insulate themselves from this global price rise, because they depend on imports for a lot of domestic consumption.

http://arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article232437.ece
 
  • #167


Ygggdrasil said:
<SNIP>

An important US/Israeli strategy in the Israel/Palestine conflict has been the blockade of Gaza. In addition to stopping weapons materials from entering the Gaza strip, the US and Israel have also been using this blockade to deny aid shipments as a way to punish the residents of the Gaza strip for electing Hamas. The contrast in Israel's treatment of the people of the West Bank (represented by the more moderate Palestinian Authority) versus the treatment of the people in Gaza sends the message that electing a more moderate leaders is the only way to improve living conditions in Gaza. Israel is very serous about maintaining this blockade of Gaza as evidenced by their raids on aid flotillas sent to Gaza last May.

Egypt shares a land border with Gaza and is therefore important in maintaining this blockade of Gaza. Mubarak has cooperated with the US and Israel in closing the Egypt-Gaza border. Should a Egypt's government change its position and open the border to Gaza, the situation would change dramatically.

You're comparing the ability of the most populous arab nation to revolt, with Palestinian revolt? The Egyptian military may not want to kill other Egyptians, but the same issue doesn't exist between Israel and the Palestinian diaspora.

Finally... as I said... I believe that the chance for peace in the region, or a two state solution is dead. Arab autocrats that use that wedge issue as part of their regime control have to realize... that may not be cutting it anymore. The Palestinians are busy eating themselves alive, and you can argue what's causing that, but like Somalia... it's just "hands off". The Palestinians don't have the numbers or free access to overcome an entrenched set of military partitions.

With Iran scaring the hell out of the Arab nations, and now the idea of internal populist revolt, I think the Palestinians will simply continue to contained. Yes, it would be disastrous for Israel to have to return to pre-treaty defense levels on the Egyptian border, but there are technologies such as unmanned drones now which make that kind of control less manpower-intensive. Finally... the Israelis will defend themselves, and every time arab nations have gone that route they've lost land and had to spend decades ransoming SOME of that land.
 
  • #168


ThomasT said:
This has been an interesting thread to read through. I still don't understand exactly why they are rioting/protesting in Egypt. Is it just young people letting off steam? I spoke with a young Egyptian friend of mine here about it. He's not sure what to attribute it to. Any clarification is appreciated.

The obvious is obvious. If you think of Mubarak’s regime as a 'mild' form of Nazi Germany – FOR 30 YEARS!

Massive corruption, harassment, violence, torture, rapes, biased trials, a privileged upper class getting richer and richer, while the poor gets poorer and poorer, a 'president' that makes it illegal to dethrone him, etc, etc...

I don’t remember which reporter it was, but he described what he saw with his own eyes (a 'normal day' before the protests) – a young woman was arrested by the police, on unclear grounds, they took her a little aside, and then THE POLICE RAPED HER IN PUBLIC! :mad: :mad: :mad:

Wouldn’t you be mad as hell?
 
  • #169


CNN – Words from a 25 year old protester:
"This is a revolution of the people, NOT the Muslim group! We want the support from President Obama!"
 
  • #170


Al Jazeera reports that 34 members of the Muslim Brotherhood were released from custody as their guards abandoned their posts.

The Guardian reported that Mohammed ElBaradei has been mandated by the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups to negotiate a temporary "national salvation government".


*** Copters and FIGHTER JETS are flying low over Tahrir Square ***
 
  • #171


DevilsAvocado said:
CNN – Words from a 25 year old protester:
"This is a revolution of the people, NOT the Muslim group! We want the support from President Obama!"

IMO - this would be a fair response to young people in Egypt (median age 24).
Asking support from President Obama is not the solution to your problem.

You have high inflation and higher unemployment. President Obama supports you from the heart (of this I'm certain) but he doesn't have any money to give and he can't create jobs for you.

You need to find a leader amongst your people who wants peace and prosperity in the region and the world - not a terror group or radicals.

You need to find a way to solve your own problems. Giza marks the center of the world, the Suez Canal is the oil artery, and you have a strong military to protect you. Find a peaceful solution and work with your military leaders.

In this peaceful solution, I'm certain you'll find President Obama a true friend.
Again - IMO.
 
  • #172


WhoWee said:
You have high inflation and higher unemployment. President Obama supports you from the heart (of this I'm certain) but he doesn't have any money to give and he can't create jobs for you.

Maybe a misunderstanding: IMO, the only thing they want from Obama is phone call to Mubarak, telling him – it’s over.

But this is a very 'delicate situation' and I’m sure Obama will do the 'right thing'... hopefully.
 
  • #173


CNN: Ahmed Osama, the Muslim Brotherhood"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei" has our support"

225px-Mohamed_ElBaradei.jpg
 
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  • #174


DevilsAvocado said:
CNN: Ahmed Osama, the Muslim Brotherhood"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei" has our support"

225px-Mohamed_ElBaradei.jpg

If the Tea Party claimed to have the support of X member of congress, would you want to check with that member of congress first? Maybe "support" means, 'in a new government, I won't hunt you down and kill you, and you'll get seats.' I admit, that doesn't thrill me, but there just isn't the fundamentalist culture in Egypt to support Islamic rule.

Will Egypt be INFLUENCED by necessity?... It's hard to imagine that it wouldn't. That said, what has the MB done in these protests except to act as a voice of reason? Like the Mulllahs in Iran, I think they realize that they have nothing to gain by trying to make this an Islamic revolution, until the movement finishes its course.

THEN they might try to take over, but I seriously doubt that the same people who want their SMS and better wages will be placated by religious dogma.
 
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  • #175


WhoWee said:
IMO - this would be a fair response to young people in Egypt (median age 24).
Asking support from President Obama is not the solution to your problem.

You have high inflation and higher unemployment. President Obama supports you from the heart (of this I'm certain) but he doesn't have any money to give and he can't create jobs for you.

You need to find a leader amongst your people who wants peace and prosperity in the region and the world - not a terror group or radicals.

You need to find a way to solve your own problems. Giza marks the center of the world, the Suez Canal is the oil artery, and you have a strong military to protect you. Find a peaceful solution and work with your military leaders.

In this peaceful solution, I'm certain you'll find President Obama a true friend.
Again - IMO.

I... agree. Completely.

DA: The US, Obama or anyone else (except arguably W... ugh) has the wisdom to wait and see what's going to happen. Given our previous diplomatic stance with Egypt, the re-evaluation of aid, and the open call to listen to his people is a HUGE slap in the face to Mubarak. Anything more in public, and he could very well try to make this about the US.

Besides, we really can't help; I don't mean won't, I mean can't.
 
  • #176


nismaratwork said:
If the Tea Party claimed to have the support of X member of congress, would you want to check with that member of congress first? Maybe "support" means, 'in a new government, I won't hunt you down and kill you, and you'll get seats.' I admit, that doesn't thrill me, but there just isn't the fundamentalist culture in Egypt to support Islamic rule.

Will Egypt be INFLUENCED by necessity?... It's hard to imagine that it wouldn't. That said, what has the MB done in these protests except to act as a voice of reason? Like the Mulllahs in Iran, I think they realize that they have nothing to gain by trying to make this an Islamic revolution, until the movement finishes its course.

THEN they might try to take over, but I seriously doubt that the same people who want their SMS and better wages will be placated by religious dogma.

I think the median age of 24 is the key to peace and prosperity. Young people interested in the world and engaged in social media don't want to starve in worn torn streets, nor do they seek the harsh restrictions of Islamic rule. They need to find a voice and they need a plan. Mubarak himself would be wise to listen to their voice and help them.
 
  • #177


nismaratwork said:
THEN they might try to take over, but I seriously doubt that the same people who want their SMS and better wages will be placated by religious dogma.

Completely agree.
 
  • #178


nismaratwork said:
Besides, we really can't help; I don't mean won't, I mean can't.

Are you sure you have thought this thru? Where do you see the young people of Egypt screaming for money...??

AFAICT, at this moment they only want to get rid of Mubarak.

The U.S military 'aid' annually is USD 1.3 billion on a total budget of USD 5.85 billion (22%).

Next 'problem': Their large number of main battle tanks is U.S M1 Abrams, and the backbone of the Egyptian Air Force is the U.S F-16. What do you think will happen to this 'equipment' if the USA don’t want to 'play' anymore...?

I’m not saying that this is the 'smartest move' at the moment – but surely one phone-call from Obama is all it takes to permanently remove Hosni Mubarak. The military is the real power.

And this is all the young people are asking for, not money.
 
  • #179


DevilsAvocado said:
Completely agree.

Me too! Aawww, group hug, everyone :wink:...
 
  • #180


WhoWee said:
I think the median age of 24 is the key to peace and prosperity.

Completely agree.
 
  • #181


lisab said:
Me too! Aawww, group hug, everyone :wink:...

Yeah, group hug and let’s pray to "what suits you" and keep our fingers crossed...
 
  • #182


DevilsAvocado said:
Are you sure you have thought this thru? Where do you see the young people of Egypt screaming for money...??

AFAICT, at this moment they only want to get rid of Mubarak.

The U.S military 'aid' annually is USD 1.3 billion on a total budget of USD 5.85 billion (22%).

Next 'problem': Their large number of main battle tanks is U.S M1 Abrams, and the backbone of the Egyptian Air Force is the U.S F-16. What do you think will happen to this 'equipment' if the USA don’t want to 'play' anymore...?

I’m not saying that this is the 'smartest move' at the moment – but surely one phone-call from Obama is all it takes to permanently remove Hosni Mubarak. The military is the real power.

And this is all the young people are asking for, not money.

I think you need to understand a difference between seeing your social position rise, but your salary stay 3rd world, and "wanting money". It's more accurate to say that these young people want respect, a voice, and pay to go along with realities of a VERY modern and wealthy Arab nation.

Beyond that, it doesn't really matter that they have some of our tanks and planes... the army simply is NOT going to need them. You don't need an M1 Abrams to kill people who aren't also in tanks. What they ARE doing, is protecting museums, key infrastructure, and more. The police, security forces, thugs and republican guard are the ones who are absurdly violent; the military is a respected center of Egyptian life.

It would certainly be yet another embarrassment for the USA to have a former ally stocked with "made in the USA" weapons systems, but in terms of the threat the ones sold to Egypt pose to US and Israeli forces... it's minimal. Without getting into painful details of logistics, training, and more, the Egyptian army can definitely hold and secure Egypt, but that's it.

Besides... F-16 cs. F-22 = F-16 down before it even SEES the F-22, or even an F-16 with a full ECW and Radar suite.
 
  • #183


lisab said:
Me too! Aawww, group hug, everyone :wink:...

*hug*..
...
...

Have you been smoking weed and eating pizza-cookies again?! Let me ask you lisa... have you ever SEEN the documentary 'Reefer Madness'? Murder! Lewd Behaviour! Crappy Acting!... all ills of marijuana.

Still, I guess you just have a problem there green-bean. :biggrin:


Oh, and yes... group hug back at you and DA.
 
  • #184


english website of the Muslim Brotherhood

http://www.ikhwanweb.com/
 
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  • #185


Completely off topic. We were planning a trip to Egypt in February, and we spend substantial time on planning back in October, but we couldn't find two week trip that would fit Marzena's schedule
 
  • #186


nismaratwork said:
Besides... F-16 cs. F-22 = F-16 down before it even SEES the F-22, or even an F-16 with a full ECW and Radar suite.

Now, let me guess where Israel gets those sort of toys from.

And let me guess if it pays the full market price or not.
 
  • #187


Borek said:
Completely off topic. We were planning a trip to Egypt in February, and we spend substantial time on planning back in October, but we couldn't find two week trip that would fit Marzena's schedule

I am truly sorry to hear of your misfortune, Borek! Egypt is such a wonderful place! If it's any sort of consolation, I hear both Pyongyang and Tehran are nice this time of year.

Seriously, my friend, as a former member of the U.S. military who frequented multiple war zones throughout my time in service, I tended to avoid them during vacations, and for obvious reasons.

If you want excitement and adventure, join the U.S. Marines!

If you'd like a nice, relaxing vacation, head to Hawaii or an island territory of either the U.S. or another stable country.

nismaratwork said:
Besides... F-16 cs. F-22 = F-16 down before it even SEES the F-22, or even an F-16 with a full ECW and Radar suite.

While the aircraft themselves would clean up just fine, it's far more than just the aircraft. It's also the armament, the training, and the global command and control. It would wind up being a half-day event.
 
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  • #188


mugaliens said:
I am truly sorry to hear of your misfortune, Borek! Egypt is such a wonderful place! If it's any sort of consolation, I hear both Pyongyang and Tehran are nice this time of year.

Seriously, my friend, as a former member of the U.S. military who frequented multiple war zones throughout my time in service, I tended to avoid them during vacations, and for obvious reasons.

If you want excitement and adventure, join the U.S. Marines!

If you'd like a nice, relaxing vacation, head to Hawaii or an island territory of either the U.S. or another stable country.



While the aircraft themselves would clean up just fine, it's far more than just the aircraft. It's also the armament, the training, and the global command and control. It would wind up being a half-day event.

Oh, no argument at all, although I think you're being generous with, "half day"... the Egyptians are neither stupid or suicidal. I understand clearly that an American soldier in general represents a lot of money and time in their training and maintaining skills, and more so in the USAF where if you want to fly.. well... there are only so many jets. You know all of this anyway, but it's worth saying.

DA: I get it, the US sells a lot of arms, but for quite a long time now selling to Egypt has been a wise choice, and may still be. I find it hard to imagine that Egypt would be in anything except chaos if Egypt didn't have such a well organized and equipped army.

As for Israel... yes, of course, and they are, like Germany, major training partners with the US military (making their air force, and especially mounted infantry some of the best in the world per capita, begin modeled on the USAF). Again, I'm not understanding how this is news or new... the same is true of Iraq, and many nations. I know you don't believe that if the US were not selling these weapons systems, that others countries (eurofighter lol) would not take up the slack.

Borek: I would not be surprised to see Egypt come back from this over time, and be a better and safer country in the end. A country is ultimately guided by its people, and the Egyptian people are very tough, but also very civilized. You can see, they're protecting their history, their infrastructure and government buildings. Egypt really is breathtaking... especially the great rivers and the Suez Canal.
 
  • #189


nismaratwork said:
I think you need to understand a difference between seeing your social position rise, but your salary stay 3rd world, and "wanting money". It's more accurate to say that these young people want respect, a voice, and pay to go along with realities of a VERY modern and wealthy Arab nation.

Beyond that, it doesn't really matter that they have some of our tanks and planes... the army simply is NOT going to need them. You don't need an M1 Abrams to kill people who aren't also in tanks. What they ARE doing, is protecting museums, key infrastructure, and more. The police, security forces, thugs and republican guard are the ones who are absurdly violent; the military is a respected center of Egyptian life.

It would certainly be yet another embarrassment for the USA to have a former ally stocked with "made in the USA" weapons systems, but in terms of the threat the ones sold to Egypt pose to US and Israeli forces... it's minimal. Without getting into painful details of logistics, training, and more, the Egyptian army can definitely hold and secure Egypt, but that's it.

Besides... F-16 cs. F-22 = F-16 down before it even SEES the F-22, or even an F-16 with a full ECW and Radar suite.

nismaratwork said:
DA: I get it, the US sells a lot of arms, but for quite a long time now selling to Egypt has been a wise choice, and may still be. I find it hard to imagine that Egypt would be in anything except chaos if Egypt didn't have such a well organized and equipped army.

As for Israel... yes, of course, and they are, like Germany, major training partners with the US military (making their air force, and especially mounted infantry some of the best in the world per capita, begin modeled on the USAF). Again, I'm not understanding how this is news or new... the same is true of Iraq, and many nations. I know you don't believe that if the US were not selling these weapons systems, that others countries (eurofighter lol) would not take up the slack.


Nismar, I won’t reply ... just put it on the "Bad Hair Day Account" ...

2dj99q8.jpg
 
  • #190


If that's a picture of Egypt...
 
  • #191


... Obama wouldn’t have the slightest clue on what to do ...
 
  • #192


http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/01/2011129132243891877.html"

"People here are suffering much more than Egypt or Tunisia but you don't see it. They keep their mouths shut because they don't want to be locked up for 10 years," said a graduate medical student, surfing the web at an internet cafe.

Sitting next to him, a young lady finished updating her Facebook page and chatting with friends online - one of thousands of young Syrians adept at using proxy servers to get around the official ban on Facebook.

I've been internet chatting with people from the middle east for at least 5 years. It took me a while before I realized that they could not speak their minds.
 
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  • #193


OmCheeto said:
I've been internet chatting with people from the middle east for at least 5 years. It took me a while before I realized that they could not speak their minds.

That is interesting... where do you live, USA? Could this be an 'effect' of 'media coverage'...


(If you live in China this is a no-brainer – they have 'erased' Egypt from internet! :eek:)
 
  • #194


o7838y.jpg


Is this Arabic or English...?? :bugeye:


(:wink:)
 
  • #195


Rich, Poor and a Rift Exposed by Unrest
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world/africa/31classwar.htm
. . . .
Over the past several days, hundreds of thousands of Egyptians — from indigent fruit peddlers and doormen to students and engineers, even wealthy landlords — poured into the streets together to denounce President Hosni Mubarak and battle his omnipresent security police. Then, on Friday night, the police pulled out of Egypt’s major cities abruptly, and tensions between rich and poor exploded.

Looters from Cairo’s vast shantytowns attacked gleaming suburban shopping malls, wild rumors swirled of gunfights at the bridges and gates to the most expensive neighborhoods and some of their residents turned wistful about Mr. Mubarak and his authoritarian rule.
. . . .
A people divided won't provide a stable foundation for a peaceful society.

Meanwhile -

Opposition Rallies to ElBaradei as Military Reinforces in Cairo
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world/middleeast/31-egypt.html

CSM said:
Mohamed ElBaradei, the Egyptian Nobel Prize winner who says he has a mandate from Egypt's opposition to negotiate President Hosni Mubarak's withdrawal from power and the creation of a transitional government, urged the US to turn its back on long-time ally Mr. Mubarak in a series of television interviews earlier today.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Midd...i-to-US-Take-Egypt-s-Mubarak-off-life-support
 
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  • #196


Nic Robertson is reporting for CNN that a military APC was chasing protesters and firing their 50 cal overhead to scare them. This is very different, and now the police are coming back.

I wouldn't even guess what this means, but I do not think it bodes well.
 
  • #197


nismaratwork said:
Nic Robertson is reporting for CNN that a military APC was chasing protesters and firing their 50 cal overhead to scare them. This is very different, and now the police are coming back.

I wouldn't even guess what this means, but I do not think it bodes well.

It seems there are two distinct groups of people on the street - people engaged in the political movement and people hoping to loot or vandalize. If the military engages with looters and vandals - it's going to look as though they are attacking the political protest. The police need to deal with criminals.
 
  • #198


WhoWee said:
It seems there are two distinct groups of people on the street - people engaged in the political movement and people hoping to loot or vandalize. If the military engages with looters and vandals - it's going to look as though they are attacking the political protest. The police need to deal with criminals.

Well, the Egyptian police are too hated, being mixed with the security forces and riot squads (called "Thugs") to be tolerated right now. If you have that vacuum, then suddenly the army HAS to protect people and property (from that other group), and I believe that is what's happening.

The thing is, what happens if that APC accidentally runs someone over, or they're overwhelmed by rioters (not protesters)? I'll tell you what, they're soldiers and they may well not fire on their own people to control them, but to save themselves from a mob?... any soldier worth their training is going to try and live. Once that line is crossed, where the army and the people lose communication and the army is perceived, not as a source of stability, but a threat... anything could happen.

There is a fog of war here, even if there isn't a war, and every day that goes by with soldiers doing something they are NOT meant to do (corral their own people and families!) and probably don't WANT to do... is another day that something can go wrong.

If these protests go from tens of thousands, to hundreds, and the army is in place and needs to attack or retreat, either choice is going to be devastating to a crowd. If the crowd decides to throw caution to the wind, well... tanks and APCs are not designed for police work. I'm yet to see a few hundred people climb on a tank in the Negev and start throwing in tear-gas, burning rags, and molotov cocktails. The main gun is NOT AP, it's AM... so you can kill a lot of people, but it's not sustainable.

I really feel terribly for those soldiers (yes, and the protesters too)... this has to end soon or the chance for violence without intent is just amplified.
 
  • #199


DevilsAvocado said:
That is interesting... where do you live, USA? Could this be an 'effect' of 'media coverage'...

(If you live in China this is a no-brainer – they have 'erased' Egypt from internet! :eek:)

Yes, I live in the USA. And I'm not sure what you are implying by "effect of media coverage".

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/01/2011129132243891877.html"

But as the young doctor put it, looking up at the cameras inside the internet cafe: "Everything here is under control, even if it looks open."

I think they have had some version of the "Patriot Act" going on for quite some time.

Only they don't get arrested and put in jail for plotting to blow up buildings or kill people, they are arrested and disappear for saying the equivalent of "Obama is a socialist nazi and should be voted out." I don't believe I ever heard any of them speaking of their leaders either in a positive or negative way. I actually don't remember them even mentioning them.

I probably shouldn't have used the word "chatting", as we were all posting in a science forum as we are doing here. "Chatting" is what we do on Sundays.

And they were from Amman Jordan btw. At least they said they were. Might have been just a poser from http://www.sln.org.uk/geography/images/Jordan/19.%20Amman%20B%20school%20students.JPG" .
 
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  • #200


http://www.accuracy.org/an-open-letter-to-president-barack-obama/

An Open Letter to President Barack Obama
January 30, 2011 By journalist
Share

Dear President Obama:

As political scientists, historians, and researchers in related fields who have studied the Middle East and U.S. foreign policy, we the undersigned believe you have a chance to move beyond rhetoric to support the democratic movement sweeping over Egypt. As citizens, we expect our president to uphold those values.

For thirty years, our government has spent billions of dollars to help build and sustain the system the Egyptian people are now trying to dismantle. Tens if not hundreds of thousands of demonstrators in Egypt and around the world have spoken. We believe their message is bold and clear: Mubarak should resign from office and allow Egyptians to establish a new government free of his and his family’s influence. It is also clear to us that if you seek, as you said Friday “political, social, and economic reforms that meet the aspirations of the Egyptian people,” your administration should publicly acknowledge those reforms will not be advanced by Mubarak or any of his adjutants.

There is another lesson from this crisis, a lesson not for the Egyptian government but for our own. In order for the United States to stand with the Egyptian people it must approach Egypt through a framework of shared values and hopes, not the prism of geostrategy. On Friday you rightly said that “suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away.” For that reason we urge your administration to seize this chance, turn away from the policies that brought us here, and embark on a new course toward peace, democracy and prosperity for the people of the Middle East. And we call on you to undertake a comprehensive review of US foreign policy on the major grievances voiced by the democratic opposition in Egypt and all other societies of the region.

egyptletter.blogspot.com

Institutional affiliations are listed for identification purposes only. Views reflected in this letter are those of the individual signatories.

also, an acceptable source: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/bab...erican-academics-urge-obama-oust-mubarak.html
 
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