What is your guess at Drake's answer?

[Ivan Seeking]

So how about it? What is your estimate or guess at the number of planets or other environments in the universe [no multi-verses please ] that support intelligent life. I will define intelligence as the ability to understand some form of abstract mathematics.

Note that I add "other environments” to allow for really weird stuff like giant gas cloud jellyfish

 

[marcus]

Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
So how about it? What is your estimate or guess at the number of planets or other environments in the universe [no multi-verses please ] that support intelligent life. I will define intelligence as the ability to understand some form of abstract mathematics.

Note that I add "other environments” to allow for really weird stuff like giant gas cloud jellyfish

Hi, if you change the question to be about the Milky Way galaxy
I will try to come up with a guess.

But if it is about the universe, I don't even know the number of galaxies. Besides which it's only life in our own galaxy that I imagine humans encountering at some point in our history. Life in other galaxies does not interest me so much. So would rather not bother to estimate its abundance.

I think Frank Drake was thinking about radiocommunication and that his speculations and equation were mainly concerned with our galaxy also---but I don't know for sure about that.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Originally posted by marcus
Hi, if you change the question to be about the Milky Way galaxy
I will try to come up with a guess.

But if it is about the universe, I don't even know the number of galaxies. Besides which it's only life in our own galaxy that I imagine humans encountering at some point in our history. Life in other galaxies does not interest me so much. So would rather not bother to estimate its abundance.

I think Frank Drake was thinking about radiocommunication and that his speculations and equation were mainly concerned with our galaxy also---but I don't know for sure about that.

Whoops! uh,hmmm. You're right of course. I hadn't looked at this for so long...I was thinking we went for the whole universe.
The key concept of radio should have reminded me.
Even though I would really be intersted in the guesses for the entire universe, I suppose we may rule out too many votes that way.
Heck, how about both? I'll start another thread.

 

[marcus]

If you do start a thread concerning this galaxy
then I shall vote immediately.
I think the right order of magnitude to guess is 10.

(some people trying to be funny will say zero)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Originally posted by marcus
(some people trying to be funny will say zero)

Of course they could be right! Heck, even if we are completely alone in the universe, who are we to say what intelligence is?

 

[drag]

Greetings !

My rough and yet best estimate is a few
hundreds of intellegent spiecies in our galaxy.
So, I just answered 10^10, but of course I don't
quite have any idea how many galaxies there are...

Live long and prosper.