What will happen if GP1 fails to confirm GR and another model is favored?

[wolram]

If this mammoth effort does favour some other model what will the next step be?

Will every one try to find fault first?

 

[Garth]

wolram, what is GP1?

Garth

 

[turbo]

I think we can safely assume he means Gravity Probe B, and it is a pretty probing question.

 

[wolram]

I think we can safely assume he means Gravity Probe B, and it is a pretty probing question.

Sorry it is obvious i get things mixed up, i did mean GPB.

 

[Garth]

First it is obvious that there will be room for dispute in the GP-B results. The unexpected errors are being modeled and subtracted from the data to give the signal, however I see that if the final result is inconsistent with GR to greater than a 3 \sigma confidence level then plenty of people will question their error models.

It is interesting to see that the present results are inconsistent with GR to a 1 \sigma confidence level as discussed here.

If the results prove to be inconsistent with GR and consistent with another theory then it will depend on the plausibility of that other theory, but I see a lot of momentum in the standard model so that it will require time to 'turn the ship around'.

Garth

 

[wolram]

First it is obvious that there will be room for dispute in the GP-B results. The unexpected errors are being modeled and subtracted from the data to give the signal, however I see that if the final result is inconsistent with GR to greater than a 3 \sigma confidence level then plenty of people will question their error models.

It is interesting to see that the present results are inconsistent with GR to a 1 \sigma confidence level as discussed here.

If the results prove to be inconsistent with GR and consistent with another theory then it will depend on the plausibility of that other theory, but I see a lot of momentum in the standard model so that it will require time to 'turn the ship around'.

Garth

Garth, i imagine that the heavens will fall down if GPB favours some model other than GR
I just need to know how much wiggle room there is, could the debate make the test a
nonsense?

 

[wolram]

After looking in the arxives i guess , CL means anything is possible, i mean if one takes all the above 95% CLs , to mean some thing.

 

[Garth]

Garth, i imagine that the heavens will fall down if GPB favours some model other than GR
I just need to know how much wiggle room there is, could the debate make the test a
nonsense?

The GP-B team claim that eventually (May 08) they will be able to reduce the error bars to within 1 mas to, I presume, the 3 \sigma CL.

All the data and their error reduction modelling will be posted by NASA http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/masterCatalog.do?sc=2004-014A&ds=* for anyone else to check.

Just a reminder, the present 1 \sigma result represents an http://colloquia.physics.cornell.edu/11-12-2007/cornellpres_files/v3_slide0426.htm at the 68% confidence level.

Garth

 

[wolram]

Thank you Garth, if this CL is reached what will the next step be?

 

[Garth]

Thank you Garth, if this CL is reached what will the next step be?

To see whether it is consistent with GR, or otherwise.

If inconsistent the next step will be to check and double check everything and see whether the confirmed results lead to a modified GR, or otherwise.

Wait and see, not long now (I hope).

Garth