billschnieder said:
Sorry, what does P(ABC) mean?
That is the joint probability for the events A, B, C.
I assume you mean P(A and B and C), more compactly written as P(A & B & C).
If A = "mismatch at -30 and 0". P(A|w) is the probability of mismatch at -30 and 0 for the probability space "w". If "w" was all we were ever talking about, it will make sense to simply leave it out and write P(A) but that will not mean P(A) is not a conditional probability. However your argument is not such a case; therefore to to be precise and avoid mistakes, it is recommended to write P(A|w).
It's fine if you want to use that notation, but my only quibble was that usually you put a statement on each side of the bar, you don't put a probability space.
I can disagree with that because I'm not limitting my thinking to an expression on a sheet of paper or on screen. I can disagree because I understand the difference between an empirical manipulation and an algebraic manipulation. You are focusing on the algebraic and ignoring the empirical.
Well, we are talking about numbers, so naturally algebra is where I turn.
And if you attempt to tell me what the joint probability P(ABC) is for both scenario (b) and (c) then you may start having a paradigm shift to understand the issue I have with your argument.
Sorry, I'm not having any paradigm shift. Of course A is only a meaningful statement in x, B is only a meaningful statement in y, C is only a meaningful statement in z, and all three statements are meaningful in w. So of course "A & B & C" is a meaningless statement in any of the three probability spaces in (b), and thus P(A & B & C) is not well-defined in any of them.
I suppose your no-conspiracy condition implies that they two are equal.
No, it doesn't. It's a conspiracy if the probability of mismatch you would get if you measured at -30 and 0 depends on whether you actually measure at -30 and 0, because the particles don't "know" whether they're going to be measured at -30 and 0. But it's not a conspiracy if C, and thus P(C), is well-defined for w but not for x. That just means that (c) allows for counterfactual reasoning and (b) doesn't.
Let me even make it easier: your expression P(C|w) <= P(A|w) + P(B|w) is actually derived from the equality P(C|w) = P(A|w) + P(B|w) - P(AB|w) so let us stay with the equality for a moment.
Actually, you forgot a factor of 2. The correct equation is P(C|w)=P(A XOR B|w)=P(A|w)+P(B|w)-2P(A & B|w). That's because if both A and B are true, then C is false.
Please use your so called "no-conspiracay condition" to write down the equivalent equality for scenario (b) with appropriate notation. As soon as you start writing it you will realize that after the second term on the RHS you are stuck, there is no P(AB|..) term because A and B are incompatible experiments.
Yes, the statement "A & B" is meaningless in any of the three probability spaces in (b), and thus P(A & B) is not well-defined in any of three probability spaces in (b), the equation doesn't make any sense using probabilities in (b).
So contrary to appearances, your "no-conspiracy" inequality P(C|z) <= P(A|x) + P(B|y) is nonsense. By writing it as an inequality, you have hidden the error of the impossible P(AB|..) term.
Look, I see no contradiction in saying the following:
1. The equation is meaningless in (b).
2. The equation is meaningful and correct in (c).
3. The equation in (c) implies the inequality in (c).
4. The inequality in (c) implies the inequality in (b)
5. The inequality is meaningful and correct in (b).
Why do you see a contradiction in this? It's true that the equation doesn't apply to (b), but that is irrelevant. The reason the inequality applies to (b) is not because the equation applies to (b), but rather because the inequality applies to (c), which is ultimately because the equation applies to (c).
And that means you are not allowed, ever, to use P(A|x), P(B|y) and P(C|z) in the same expression the way you do. You can only do that if the three are defined over the exact same probability space where the joint probabilities are well defined.
But they're just numbers. Why am I not allowed to use numbers in whatever expression I want to?
Since you insist on doing the forbidden, don't blame anything else for violations.
But how in the world is it forbidden?
Going back to the inequality for a bit, if you insist on using the inquality and obtain a violation for scenario (b), such a violation means P(AB|..) is negative which is impossible! But of cause that is because you insisted on using an impossible probability P(AB|..) to start with so "garbage-in", "garbage out".
Yes, a violation of the inequality in (b) implies a violation of the inequality in (c), which implies that P(A & B|w) is negative, which is impossible. But I am never invoking the ill-defined probabilities P(A & B|x), P(A & B|y), or P(A & B|z), so I don't see any garbage-in, garbage-out here.