The Golden Age of Science: When will it end?

[Ivan Seeking]

As most of us know, we are currently in the midst of a fantastic explosion of information unlike any seen in human history. There has been speculation about an approaching "singularity" of information flow - really a nearly vertical spike in the rate of technological progress made as a function of time. So most discussions among futurists center on this approaching spike which is powered by modern electronics, and ultimately resulting from a confluence of nanotechnology, genetic engineering and manipulation, quantum processing, not to mention some of today's cutting edge physics, and maybe even a GUT.

What I haven't read much about is when this might end. Kaku mentioned that we might find a GUT but it may take centuries to fully understand the implications. So the end is not really THE END, but it does seem that we are reaching limits in many respects. The smallest transistor has been built - having a base only three atoms thick [okay, maybe they'll figure out how to make it in two], so the transistor age is effectively over. We can manipulate atoms, one at a time, quantum computers will utilize the deepest aspects of reality to grab magical answers from Hilbert Space, the genome is a done deal, and gene splicing is now old stuff.

So, how long until, in principle at least, we no longer need research projects or scientists? Oh yes, with quantum computers and AI, we can probably ditch the engineers as well. In fact, I wonder about what people will do? So much of modern life is basically doomed - the days are numbered. Even service jobs like McDonalds are soon to be gone. [I helped to develop one of the systems for the first automated Taco Bell]. It seems that post singularity economics will be something altogether new as well.

Any futurists among us?

 

[Smurf]

I think it's already over, our knowledge in most areas isn't really increasing any more, just becoming vastly more efficient.

 

[selfAdjoint]

The explosion of new understanding in mathematics seems to be continuing; the late twentieth century was already termed a Golden Age of Math because of that.

Biological knowledge, especially at the molecular level, seems to be doubling every few years; I suppose they will eventually reach a point where they understand every single biological interaction in paralyzing detail, but I don't think that will be any time soon.

 

[Evo]

[I helped to develop one of the systems for the first automated Taco Bell].

Ahah! So, when we're all being fed by machines we'll know who to blame! Actually, it might not be that bad, we won't have to worry anymore about someone spitting into our food. Did you remember to program the machines to pick the mice and roaches out of the food?

Growing up I had friends that worked for Taco Bell and other fast food places talking about dishing mice out of the deep fryer that accidently fell in apparently while crawling along the overhead ledge and roaches in the meat. But it's all protein, right?

Give me a soft mouse taco...hold the roaches.

 

[RingoKid]

Did we ever "need" research projects or scientists ?

 

[Chronos]

The end is only in sight when you run out of imagination. Once all those annoying fundamental properties of nature are discovered, we can divert our attention to more interesting aspects of reality, like why you can't nail jello to a tree.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I told you how to nail jello to a tree, doggonnit, you freeze it! See, the end IS near!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Growing up I had friends that worked for Taco Bell and other fast food places talking about dishing mice out of the deep fryer that accidently fell in apparently while crawling along the overhead ledge and roaches in the meat. But it's all protein, right?

Give me a soft mouse taco...hold the roaches.

Compared to the stuff that's supposed to go through those machines, that's really not so bad. Of course, we got to work with four day old refried beans that had been sitting in the shop. [edit: If anyone would like to know about the intricacies of pumping and accurately squirting measured volumes of four day old refried beans, send me a PM.]

Do you remember back in the early 70's when TB got busted for selling horse meat? Anyway, OT.

 

[Evo]

Compared to the stuff that's supposed to go through those machines, that's really not so bad. Of course, we got to work with four day old refried beans that had been sitting in the shop. [edit: If anyone would like to know about the intricacies of pumping and accurately squirting measured volumes of four day old refried beans, send me a PM.]

Do you remember back in the early 70's when TB got busted for selling horse meat? Anyway, OT.

Horse meat is popular in Europe. Especially Belgium and France, but also Sweden, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Germany, Austria and The Netherlands. Perhaps TB should consider franchises there?

 

[hypnagogue]

So, how long until, in principle at least, we no longer need research projects or scientists? Oh yes, with quantum computers and AI, we can probably ditch the engineers as well.

Don't be so quick to ditch the engineers! If quantum computing pans out, we may well have virtually unlimited computational power at our fingertips. But computational power is only good for crunching the best algorithms you have. So far, no AI project has come close to approaching human intelligence. One significant reason seems to be that the brain is a pretty holistic operating mechanism; you can't easily abstract one piece of functionality if you want to get something as flexible as human intellect.

When you think about it, discovering and understanding the relatively simple laws of physics is a somewhat modest task compared to trying to figure out the inner workings of the human brain, easily the most complex physical system we've yet encountered. We already do understand a lot of how the brain works, but being able to amass all the relevant pieces of the puzzle and then re-assemble them into a complete picture of how the human mind works is still a daunting task. Future advances in technology, particularly nanotechnology I think, might help us to eventually entirely reverse engineer the brain; but hammering out an abstract understanding of everything it does, and why it does it, would certainly still remain a significant and daunting further problem. Completely understanding the brain is probably the most difficult scientific task ahead of us, and I would bet it's going to take a long time to figure out, singularity or not.

But don't quote me on that.

 

[Gokul43201]

Every so many years people start getting the feeling that the end of science is near.

Near the end of the 1890s, the commissioner of the US Patent Office is said to have proclaimed that "Everything that can be invented has been invented"

http://dbhs.wvusd.k12.ca.us/webdocs/Chem-History/Chadwick-1932/Chadwick-neutron.html in 1932, heralded another short-lived period of similar thought among many, now that Relativity and Quantum mechanics had been established and all the constituents of the atom had been accounted for.

Each time science has been able to come up with deeper questions and newer problems, the trail of which have led to wondrous and beautiful discoveries.

Sorry folks, but if you're waiting for the end, prepare to hang around for the long haul.

The woods are lovely, dark and deep ...

 

[franznietzsche]

Yay for lovely, dark, deep woods. PLenty of work for me to set to.

 

[Chronos]

I told you how to nail jello to a tree, doggonnit, you freeze it! See, the end IS near!

You speak as if you assume I never thought of that. The only way frozen jello works is if you freeze it with a hole through which to drive the nail. I protest that as a rule violation. You then have jello suspended by a nail driven into a tree, not jello nailed to a tree. Unless you have perfect geometry and timing, you cannot nail frozen jello to a tree without fracturing it... er, I never actually tried this myself. It just so happens I was sitting in the park one day when this guy wearing a carpenter's belt and carrying a cooler walked up to this tree I was under and... did I mention the part where the apple fell on my head?

 

[DeathKnight]

I think it's already over, our knowledge in most areas isn't really increasing any more, just becoming vastly more efficient.

Exactly my thoughts!

 

[Rybo]

"If" is the key word here

Don't be so quick to ditch the engineers! If quantum computing pans out, we may well have virtually unlimited computational power at our fingertips. Completely understanding the brain is probably the most difficult scientific task ahead of us, and I would bet it's going to take a long time to figure out, singularity or not.

Hypnog, "If"is definately th ekey word here. "If" humanity continues to survive and progress technologically, intellectually and emotionally onward into the future then all things possible are feasible for humanity to reproduce-- e.g. creation of biological life or baby universe --however, in this vast Universe we have not received any signals from other humanitys or other intellingent biologic life,

...we have no cofirmed vistors from the future either.

It may be that humanity or intelleigent biologic life forms, here or elsewhere, have not or will not continue far enough into their futures to fufill those seeming impossible possibilites.

Human like "Artificial Intelligence" may actually be potential savior of many biologic civilizations through out Universe as human intellect sometimes appears to be lacking what it takes for longterm survival much less technological advancement.

Rybo

 

[hypnagogue]

Of course, further advances are contingent upon the continued survival of our species. One can only hope.

 

[Moonbear]

Do you remember back in the early 70's when TB got busted for selling horse meat? Anyway, OT.

I didn't even know Taco Bell existed in the early 70's! I'm trying to remember when I heard of the first one opening up near my home...I might have already been out of high school. Anyway, best guess is the first time I heard of it was probably late 80s, early 90s. I thought they were a newer chain!

I'd rather have horsemeat than roaches though. At least horsemeat is still meat!

 

[RingoKid]

Tongans are pretty big on horse meat too...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Yes, I know horse meat is okay to eat, maybe even quite tasty - like a big, green, crunchy piece of frozen broccoli - but it was illegal and culturally unacceptable. Moonbear, I remember a TB near our house as early as the late 60's, so I checked.

HISTORY: Originated by Glen Bell, Taco Bell became a reality on March 21, 1962. The first Taco Bell restaurant was built in Downey, California and the first franchise was sold in 1964.

http://www.tacobell.com/

This was just down the road from my home back then.

Of course, further advances are contingent upon the continued survival of our species. One can only hope.

Synthesis: It depends on how many people eat at TB.

Funny, right now we are poised for something approaching immortality, with talk of 400+ year lifespans, or even more, and at the same time, potential extinction. Which way will it go? I can hardly wait to find out! Woudln't it be funny if we found the key to eternal life just as the planet dies? Sounds like a German movie plot to me!

When we have had these sorts of discussions in the past, most people do see us becoming borg-like.

This is a strange thread.

 

[brewnog]

Horse meat is beautiful!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

You speak as if you assume I never thought of that. The only way frozen jello works is if you freeze it with a hole through which to drive the nail. I protest that as a rule violation. You then have jello suspended by a nail driven into a tree, not jello nailed to a tree. Unless you have perfect geometry and timing, you cannot nail frozen jello to a tree without fracturing it... er, I never actually tried this myself. It just so happens I was sitting in the park one day when this guy wearing a carpenter's belt and carrying a cooler walked up to this tree I was under and... did I mention the part where the apple fell on my head?

Use heated nails and pound very lightly.

Also, you could just grab a box of jello and nail it to a tree. It's really not so hard. [Since Jello is really a brand name this is qualifies, technically]

What the heck...this thread was shot anyway.

 

[RingoKid]

actually it is totally culturally acceptable to eat horsemeat in Tonga but it freaks the euros out so i think they outlawed it and now they only do it on special occassions much like cannibalism in pre colonial days except then it was to show your enemies that you weren't to be messed with and also to absorb the mana of a great warrior.

I do hope you all know what mana is...

 

[remcook]

i was about to post a serious reply here, but it's general discussion, so after a few post I lost courage. let's talk about horsemeat..

 

[RingoKid]

I think the horsemeat has been played out...

...let's hear your serious reply remcook, it's probably even funnier

 

[remcook]

it had something to do with sheep ;)

 

[dextercioby]

Dolly and her sisters?? Why not eat genetically modified meat??As long as it was alive at some point...

Daniel.

 

[matthyaouw]

You speak as if you assume I never thought of that. The only way frozen jello works is if you freeze it with a hole through which to drive the nail. I protest that as a rule violation. You then have jello suspended by a nail driven into a tree, not jello nailed to a tree. Unless you have perfect geometry and timing, you cannot nail frozen jello to a tree without fracturing it... er, I never actually tried this myself. It just so happens I was sitting in the park one day when this guy wearing a carpenter's belt and carrying a cooler walked up to this tree I was under and... did I mention the part where the apple fell on my head?

That sounds like a challenge. Expect to hear from me in the next few days

 

[franznietzsche]

That sounds like a challenge. Expect to hear from me in the next few days

But can you lick your elbows while nailing jello to a tree?

 

[meteor]

It would be very sad if the end of science was near, when there's more than a 50% of the population that is so low in scientific knowledge. What I forecast, is an increase in the rapidity of learning (and I'm thinking for example in cybernetic implants in the brain a la Johnny Mnemonic). In fact, the cyborg Kevin Warwick has wild dreams to implant a chip in his brain in 2015

 

[hypnagogue]

Woudln't it be funny if we found the key to eternal life just as the planet dies? Sounds like a German movie plot to me!

It wouldn't be complete without something completely bizarre but intended to be profound, like ending off with a fade-out from a mushroom cloud to a black and white scene of a nun sipping tea in a hospital with a chimpanzee that's wearing a derby. Also, the main character looks something like http://www.ms.uky.edu/~sills/dieter.jpg from the SNL skit Sprockets.

"In your film Irritant Number Four, the only images were that of a baby's head and a toilet. Did you mean for me to scream?"
- Dieter

 

[Les Sleeth]

Dolly and her sisters?? Why not eat genetically modified meat??As long as it was alive at some point...

There is a HUGE gap between sheep ranchers ideas about reproducing sheep and the technology capable of a sheep clone. It will never work until the ranchers are brought up to speed. A recent example of this problem was reported in Scotland's Farm Times. An excerpt from the article read:

“After reading an article in Farm Times about advances in breeding techniques, rancher John MacDuff recently decided to go ‘high-tech’ by using artificial insemination to improve the quality of his sheep stock. MacDuff didn’t understand the meaning of ‘artificial insemination,’ and so called his long-time mentor George Maxwell for advice. Maxwell, not wanting to appear ignorant, said artificial insemination must mean MacDuff had to do it himself.

MacDuff was confused about one thing though, and asked Maxwell, “But how will I know if the lovelies have been impregnated?”

Still wanting to seem authoritative, Maxwell said, “Well laddie, within 30 minutes after you are done, if them sheep lie doon on their backs, legs straight up in the air, you know they been fertilized.”

Trusting his mentor, MacDuff gathered up his six most prized ewes the following morning, loaded them into the back of his truck, took them to a nearby woods so nobody would see him, and proceeded to have sex with each of them. He then returned his ewes to their pen on the ranch to watch. Thirty minutes went by, then sixty, and then two hours . . . and all the ewes were standing, looking at MacDuff curiously. MacDuff called Maxwell who informed him it must not have ‘taken,’ and that MacDuff would have to do it until it did.

MacDuff again loaded the sheep into the truck, took them to the woods, and had intercourse with each. Back at the ranch, same results . . . no sheep on their backs. Three times more throughout the day MacDuff dutifully returned his sheep to the woods for another ‘artificial insemination’ session, with the same results each time.

It was late, MacDuff was exhausted, but he didn’t want to give up, so he tried one more time. As he pulled back into the ranch it was dark, and he was too tired to even unload the sheep from the truck. He staggered across the yard, crawled upstairs, and fell into bed where his wife was already asleep. Waking her he said, "Lassie, would you please do me a favor? Go to the window there, look doon to the truck, and tell me if any of the lovelies are lyin’ on their backs."

His wife went to the window and said, "No MacDuff, there’s no sheep on their backs. But there is one on the front seat of the truck poundin' the horn!”

 

[Aquamarine]

Incomplete list of unsolved problems in science:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unsolved_problems

 

[honestrosewater]

Don't worry, there will always be at least one question left: Should we eat meat?

 

[Rybo]

Meat and sicntific method

Don't worry, there will always be at least one question left: Should we eat meat?

It depends on you circumstances e.g. quality of the meat --how toxic --, whose meat-- i.e. is yours are the person next to you, allergys, etc...

Do you need to eat meat? Under most circumstances in this day and age no.

Cows and the Scientistific process

1) A group of Physicists are given a herd of cows to do experiments with as they see fit. The physicists take two cows at a time, place them onto a circular track, point them in opposite diretions then chase them towards each other at high speeds. Oops! Bad idea.

2) A group of Micro-Biologist are given a bunch of cows to do experiments with as they deem neccessary. The micro-biologist take a sample of hair and some blood from each cow to study in that laboratory uner the super powerful microscopes. Two days later the cows are found wandering aimlessly in several surrounding counties.

3) A group of Geometers are given a herd of cows to do experiments with. The geometers arrange the cows into a variety of many polgonal shapes and artistic patterns. The cows find this all very intersting but of no redeeming value as they stand around chewing there cud and shootin the ****!

I wrote these but I got the general concept from the net.

Rybo

 

[Euphoriet]

I'm interested in learning as much as you can tell as about those taco bell machines and 'improvements'. Thanks.